First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting auburn:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AND FOR THE WX GURUS IN THE DOC'S BLOG, IT AINT GONNA COME BACK. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.


Lol... I hope that isn't real!
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Hey Hurricajun! We're good. Nice catching up with everyone in here! How are you? Ready for another season?
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Afternoon All,
Here are the conditions in the Turks and Caicos Islands:
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 23 °C
Wind: 28 km/hfrom the SSE
Wind Gust: 49 km/h
Pressure: 1008.4 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 28 °C

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look at how good X-90L looks
shes so pretty..LINK
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We sure could use something to form and bring an end to our extreme drought here in South Central Texas. I'll be monitoring.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
There's no warm front there though cchsweatherman


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Quoting hurricanehanna:


OK - thanks. I was thinking Felix too like Amy. We must have had a Felix not long ago.


Fay - '08.

Felix - '07 (and retired.)
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chris - 90L is done. sorry! the invest has been deactivated. Will simply be a shower/thunderstorm maker from now on.
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466. auburn (Mod)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AND FOR THE WX GURUS IN THE DOC'S BLOG, IT AINT GONNA COME BACK. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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Hi there Hanna! Hope things are well on your end!
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Since we didn't get much of any rain that was excpected here in South Florida, when do you guys think our next best chance will be for some much needed rain?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Coming soon to a Jeff Masters' Blog Post near you:

"I say TS at the 11 adv, and Cat 1/2 at the 5"

"Do you think this will moisten the environment for the wave now over Africa?"

"Where is the A/B high situated?"

"This reminds me of (insert well-known strong storm here)"

"Looks like its going to pull a (insert name of well-known strong storm here)"

"Check out my blog"

"DATA COMING INTO MY WEATHER OFFICE INDICATES..."

...and many, many more.

Best of luck to those of you in harms way this season.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I totally forgot about Stomtrop (is that its name?)

Personally - I see TS Ana before the month is out though.

Any news in the EPAC?
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sorry for the anger but people are saying that 90L is done it is most certainly not done
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:

It was Fay. She made Florida landfall 4 times.


OK - thanks. I was thinking Felix too like Amy. We must have had a Felix not long ago.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
which "storm" was it last year that zigzagged across Florida?


Fay.

Not Felix. Be very thankful it wasn't Felix.

Tropical storm, or Cat 5 hurricane, folks? I think we know the answer...
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OK listen all that rain (the blobs in the bahamas) will eventually move westward. so, yes it is developing it is creating its own environment and florida will get wet again
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CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
From CCHS Weather Center

Use the graphic inserted below to use as reference for discussion and analysis.

Photobucket

Over the past few days, we've been watching a complex weather situation developing over Florida. Even though we're now watching this situation evolve, it still remains quite difficult to get a handle on what exactly will happen over the next several days as the computer models still aren't in good agreement.

Before getting into the computer models, lets analyze the situation currently at hand. Right now, the main feature thats driving all this weather is the strengthening upper level low that formed yesterday in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Throughout the morning, this upper level low has pulled in some extremely dry air around the east side and it appears that some dry air may have gotten entrained into Southern Florida. At the same time, this upper level low has also begun to swing the frontal system that came through Florida as a cold front back north into the SE coastline as a warm front bringing heavy showers and storms. Now former Invest 90L continues to produce widespread showers and storms over the Bahamas and will continue to do so throughout the day as the remnants become entrained into the massive system developing over Florida.

Throughout the day, this dominant upper level low will start to move out into the Gulf of Mexico dragging the moisture currently over the Bahamas into Florida. Even though there isn't much action over South Florida right now, I do expect another round with heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms overnight as the atmosphere still remains unstable and will become more moist as the day progress and the system begins a slow movement out into the Gulf. Continue to expect steady rainfalls over Central and Northern Florida as more showers and storms wrap around this massive system.

Beyond tomorrow, things become quite cloudy as some computer models want to spin this system in the Gulf long enough for some subtropical/tropical development to occur. This remains to be seen and, in this forecaster's opinion, is very unlikely to occur as wind shear should be high (around 30-40kts) and dry air should becomes entrenched into this system.

So, at this time, I am not expecting any subtropical/tropical development over the next 24 to 48 hours due to deep dry air over the Gulf of Mexico and hostile wind shear over the Atlantic.
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Quoting presslord:
What sort of name is "Idamis"?!?!?!?!


Watching that woman is truly painful!
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
which "storm" was it last year that zigzagged across Florida?

It was Fay. She made Florida landfall 4 times.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting tharpgomex:
Well... will it rain in the panhandle of Florida from this L


YES!
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It has been a windy day here in Saint Petersburg.
IMO it will take about 24-48 hours or so for the surface low in the Gulf near Fort Myers to organize into a tropical system, if it does
become one.
Given the ridge, this low should make landfall
late this week in Louisiana or near that area-
it may be just a low, or it could be (slight chance) tropical storm Ana. We will see.
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Quoting NRAamy:
440. hurricanehanna 11:58 AM PDT on May 19, 2009
which "storm" was it last year that zigzagged across Florida?


I believe that was Felix...he was chasing a ball of string...


yep -that's it. Brain fog for a moment. Thanks Amy
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Well... will it rain in the panhandle of Florida from this L
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Didn't Fay hang around for a while?
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
I am actually shocked that there is only a 40% chance of rain for the next 4-5 days along the northern gulf coast. Looks like this "system" could be a soaker.


I agree but what I have notice with the weather guys these days is they will put a 30-40% chance of rain out until they can pin point exactly when it's going to hit. Then they'll bump the rain chance up to 60-100% the day or two before it's suppose to happen!
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:

So true! Was it remnants of Karen in 2007 that hung around forever? I can't remember...


Ya she wouldn't die lol.
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Quoting 69Viking:
I'm no expert but the area of dry air is shrinking as the moist low moves westward. I think this is what people are refering to when they say it's creating it's own environment. It seems to be pushing the dry air out of it's way without absorbing the dry air into it's core.

Link


Thanks! Exactly what I was trying to say, just seems I couldn't articulate it correctly.
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agreed. anyone north and east of the low will be the ones to get soaked. It could MAYBE be an invest by Thurs/Fri. 30% chance
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440. hurricanehanna 11:58 AM PDT on May 19, 2009
which "storm" was it last year that zigzagged across Florida?


I believe that was Felix...he was chasing a ball of string...
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Pretty dry day here across miami so much for the wash out.Neither system will bring a cause for concern.12z NAM actually shows a pretty tranquil evening across southeast florida.
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I am actually shocked that there is only a 40% chance of rain for the next 4-5 days along the northern gulf coast. Looks like this "system" could be a soaker.
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which "storm" was it last year that zigzagged across Florida?
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439. IKE
12Z ECMWF..not much left...
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pressure's down to 1009.4mb!!!..in srq
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I dont believe this storm with be anything more than a rainmaker...even if each reaches the gulf!
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:

So true! Was it remnants of Karen in 2007 that hung around forever? I can't remember...


Karen's still out there... ;)
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I'm no expert but the area of dry air is shrinking as the moist low moves westward. I think this is what people are refering to when they say it's creating it's own environment. It seems to be pushing the dry air out of it's way without absorbing the dry air into it's core.

Link
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Oh no.....our winds are at 8mph with gusts up to 15 mph....should I put up the shudders yet? lol sorry, just couldn't resist

afternoon...
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Quoting Cotillion:


Nah, travailed the Atlantic near to the ITCZ, battling dry air all it's life.. and it was a tenacious little thing.. before it eventually succumbed just outside the Windward Isles, if I recall right.

Probably was a TD in retrospect, but was always too tied into the diurnal cycles.


good memories...
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432. IKE
Look how close the moisture is....

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Quoting Cotillion:
Still doesn't beat 96L of '07.

That was the Little Engine That Could. (Or Couldn't, in the end.)

Forever living on... in our hearts and minds.

So true! Was it remnants of Karen in 2007 that hung around forever? I can't remember...
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


was that the one that traversed the entire northern carrib up to the bahamas as a dry swirl?


Nah, travailed the Atlantic near to the ITCZ, battling dry air all it's life.. and it was a tenacious little thing.. before it eventually succumbed just outside the Windward Isles, if I recall right.

Probably was a TD in retrospect, but was always too tied into the diurnal cycles.
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the fire hose is now pointed at SEFL coast....let er' rip!!!!!as the ridge builds everything will be pushed back west
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428. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Check out my dew point...

Careful, Ike, hate to see you get banned.


???

Quoting 69Viking:


Make sure you save that to compare it to come tomorrow when that low is in the GOM! I bet by tomorrow we'll see quite an increase in the humidty and dewpoint in our area!


Agree.
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because it is pushing moist air out in front of it...the circ is still well east of the wet barrier... this morning it was a whole lot closer
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.