First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Gusting to 43 knots at the Navy R2 tower.

Up to 50 knots a few hours ago.
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Big waves off SC, too:

Full-screen
Station 41004
NDBC
Location: 32.501N 79.099W
Conditions as of:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 2:50:00 PM
Winds: NE (40°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 38.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 14.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.11 in and falling
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Quoting StormW:


Hi hanna.


Hey Storm !
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Some wicked wave action going on off the GA coast.

Conditions at 41008 as of
(2:50 pm EDT)
1850 GMT on 05/19/2009:

- Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
- Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
- Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts
- Wave Height (WVHT): 11.8 ft
- Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
- Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
- Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 60 deg true )


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Quoting Vero1:
This system over Florida can't be that bad~~~no one is talking about ants yet like during Fay.


That was my favorite post last year...Ants are contraflowing into my house...LOL

I saved that one...will have to dig it up
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Quoting StormW:
Surface circualtion exiting Florida coast near Ft. Myers.

rhut rho
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519. Vero1
Thanks for the Updated Synopsis Storm
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
518. Vero1
This system over Florida can't be that bad~~~no one is talking about ants yet like during Fay.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting Vortex95:
Just looked at the dry air can any one tell if it is being chocked off or is it just moving south?
It won't be choked off. But that doesn't mean it will develop either.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
Just looked at the dry air can any one tell if it is being chocked off or is it just moving south?
its nice how it put us all on watch mode now as the season is 12 days away we get ready for the real deal
90l has made me more then ready for the approaching season
waitin on 91
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55474
This has done OK with this system so far.



Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
could not out run the wind and dry air
funny.............o..........no, not really.
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Quoting RobDaHood:

yep, but she's still nekkid so we can't see her!

Cotillion, was is TD16 that parked itself over Honduras last year and drove us all nutz?

450. gbTracker
Fay was another one...went island hopping, never wanted to get both feet wet, lots of potential that just never happened. Then got to the keys and was trapped with nowhere to go. I remember the models looking like a mushroom. came onshore SW FL. then north then corkscrewed her way over to melborne up the East coast slowly and across to the panhandle...long, slow, and wet!


Yup, that was the bunny. Had Omar at the time too.
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Quoting canesrule1:
What the hell happened to our invest?
could not out run the wind and dry air
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55474
Still seems over hyped to me. The whole thing still looks a tad on the baroclinic side so far. It may persist but I'm not so sure about any deep tropical development.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Absorbed by the larger low which has a fair chance of becoming 91L.
is there any chance the larger low will become a TD or TS
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Quoting Cotillion:


Karen's still out there... ;)

yep, but she's still nekkid so we can't see her!

Cotillion, was is TD16 that parked itself over Honduras last year and drove us all nutz?

450. gbTracker
Fay was another one...went island hopping, never wanted to get both feet wet, lots of potential that just never happened. Then got to the keys and was trapped with nowhere to go. I remember the models looking like a mushroom. came onshore SW FL. then north then corkscrewed her way over to melborne up the East coast slowly and across to the panhandle...long, slow, and wet!
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GOES-12 Low Cloud Product,GOM



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Quoting canesrule1:
What the hell happened to our invest?


Absorbed by the larger low which has a fair chance of becoming 91L.
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What the hell happened to our invest?
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


What if you live on the northern gulf coast?


prepare for rain!
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The dry air is trying to loop up into the bahamas could that dry up the rain there?
Oh and btw, 901/possible 91L is the remains of Karen. ROFL.
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cybrteddy - don't dare say 91L in here. People get defensive. LOL!!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Thing will become brighter come the weekend as the low moves away farther west into the GOM.


What if you live on the northern gulf coast?
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I see that 90L got absorbed by the larger low off Florida. The larger low wouldn't surprise me to become 91L, and head towards a lower shear enviroment of 20 kts. This will be enough to allow some kind of development occur weather it be Extra or Sub tropical.
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for those that may have missed it

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200905191815
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END/strong>
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55474
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


At any rate, this will be the worst noreaster in many years on the GA coast, in terms of beach erosion.


They just renourished the beach here at Tybee this winter, SSG. Looks like $9 million down the drain at the whim of mother nature. :(
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GOES-12 Atlantic Basin Loop,ESL by LSU
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
Drak - so just a rainmaker to ruin memorial day plans, huh?


Thing will become brighter come the weekend as the low moves away farther west into the GOM.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30670
Quoting Drakoen:
Not sure if anything will be able to materialize with a disorganized area of low pressure and frontal moisture. Lots of dry air in the GOM and unfavorable upper level winds. Anything forming there would take a while to coalesce.


Thats been my thinking over the past 12 hours ever since Invest 90L weakened and eventually fizzled due to hostile wind shear. Seems like all this was just another perfect example on computer model overhype. But, this was a great system to dust off the old tropical weather links and practice for hurricane season.
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Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami. Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information

GOM IR Loop
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Quoting sfla82:
Since we didn't get much of any rain that was excpected here in South Florida, when do you guys think our next best chance will be for some much needed rain?
As this upper level low develops a lot more rain will come up from the south tonight and tomorrow.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
Drak - so just a rainmaker to ruin memorial day plans, huh?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well that graphic is very different, the warm front on your graphic is inland from me, while on the wunderground graphic it is 150+ miles offshore ;) And with temps falling from 63 at 11 am to 57 now, there is no warm front influence here! ;)


Sorry. Use Paint to create my graphics. Going to try and get a good program for image editing.
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LOL auburn!
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Not sure if anything will be able to materialize with a disorganized area of low pressure and frontal moisture. Lots of dry air in the GOM and unfavorable upper level winds. Anything forming there would take a while to coalesce.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30670
Quoting sfla82:
Since we didn't get much of any rain that was excpected here in South Florida, when do you guys think our next best chance will be for some much needed rain?



GFS has another system in the long-wishcasting range of 10 days coming over from the EPAC and across S/Cent Florida. Otherwise normal summer pattern once all this clears.
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ex-90L just looks like a bunch of blobs in the atlantic.
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We are good here. Yes, we are ready for another season. Just taking it one day at a time. I am hoping that this season brings lots of "fish" to the Gulf and Oceans!!! lol
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btw I agree that the dry air will have a factor in the gulf but imo I believe the system will push away the dry air aways somewhat from Florida as it already is doing.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.