First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Ants and TS Fay were mentioned in earlier posts. Mother-in-law in Naples had carpenter ants in the condo earlier this week. Harbingers of impending flood??
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Keep looking at the loops and definitely a large circulation,but none of it is impressing me much.
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Offshore of Punta Gorda
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surface low appears to be just offshore along the sarasota/charlotte county line ....lot'o'rain comming tonight!!!
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In lakeland Im getting a NNE wind. There has to be some kind of surface low down there.
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Mid level circulation due west of Punta Gorda, that will become the main low level circulation in the future.....

chaaaa chiiiinngggg
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


We got 1.40 inches yesterday. Today...absolutely nothing. Those people up in Central Florida are hogging all the rain, just like with Fay.


I've gotten 2 inches since yesterday. Been raining off and on today.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Seems like someone just read my mind! LOL

After going to the link you provided and taking a real good look, I don't see any surface low over the Keys. But I did see a rather vigorous surface low from ex-Invest 90L. Also seems like its underneath that convective burst over the Bahamas as well. Don't know, but they may have deactivated a bit soon.



I noticed the floater was a bit more zoomed in on that area that days passed.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


We got 1.40 inches yesterday. Today...absolutely nothing. Those people up in Central Florida are hogging all the rain, just like with Fay.


LOL - they always want to keep everything!
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This one...

Link
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this low is definitely closed now we just need convection over the center.
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I heard it is invest 91L, dont know if its true or not.
I never thought our invest looked like anything more than a line of thunderstorms while it was an invest. Ithink it looks better now than 18 hours ago, maybe i'm just not skilled enough?
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Quoting zoomiami:


Didn't you guys get a lot of rain yesterday?


We got 1.40 inches yesterday. Today...absolutely nothing. Those people up in Central Florida are hogging all the rain, just like with Fay.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Link
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557. IKE
Quoting captainhunter:
542. IKE

I was hoping we had seen the last of that. Too much last season.


Apparently not.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I need rain in Lake Worth it only rained once today is all that rain over the bahamas going to come over this way if so when
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Try to send some of that to West Palm. Haven't seen a drop all day.


Didn't you guys get a lot of rain yesterday?
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Quoting hurricanehanna:


Duck if you see Cantori!


I think I saw him floating by my house in a canoe .
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Quoting hurricanehanna:


Duck if you see Cantori!


LOL

Where is Patrap with one of his Cantore pictures?
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Quoting StormW:
From yesterday



Thanks Storm, I could not find anything from today. I thought they were updated more frequently :)
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I think a STS in the next 48hrs is a real possiblity...somewhere in the eastern/central GOM....maybe even making a full transition to a TS......
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the surface low looks like its down by extreme Southwest Florida.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
542. IKE

I was hoping we had seen the last of that. Too much last season.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Good Lord! The local news has crews out covering this system. Acting like it hasn't rained in months...oh wait.


Duck if you see Cantori!
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Quoting zoomiami:
I don't know where everyone else in Miami has been, but I've been out all day get rained on. US1 in South Miami had an entire lane flooded, its pouring in Homestead, and getting ready to do it again here in Kendall.

Not that I'm complaining - but it certainly has been raining.


Try to send some of that to West Palm. Haven't seen a drop all day.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
SWFL:here comes the rain,here comes the rain(jumping up and down)...seriously we could have some flooding concerns overnight as our flow will soon be out of the SE and will open a floodgate of tropical moisture influx into our ULL and associated surface low both located along fl's west coast........and everything's retro-grading west!!!!
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542. IKE
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Lol... I hope that isn't real!


It isn't and he really shouldn't be doing that.

Oh well.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hey guys...old school member for over 4 years back with my first 2009 post...great to see you all!

Dark clouds on their way to SWFL...Ft myers. Pressure dropping...figures that it would not rain for 6 months and then it rains during the nba playoffs when I am off work and my direct tv will be fuzzy....nice.
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I don't know where everyone else in Miami has been, but I've been out all day get rained on. US1 in South Miami had an entire lane flooded, its pouring in Homestead, and getting ready to do it again here in Kendall.

Not that I'm complaining - but it certainly has been raining.
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539. Vero1
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Good Lord! The local news has crews out covering this system. Acting like it hasn't rained in months...oh wait.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Earliest tropical storm formed: Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978, through January 23, 1978, 45 mph. Excluding this subtropical storm, the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952 with 50 mph winds was the earliest formed in a calendar year.
Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year: March 6, 1908 Hurricane
Strongest February tropical storm: Groundhog Day Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952, 50 mph
Strongest March hurricane: March 6, 1908 Hurricane, category 2 storm.
Strongest April tropical storm: Ana 2003 (the only April storm in fact), April 20-April 24, 60 mph winds, 994 mb
Strongest May hurricane:Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Also in that image you can see EX90L about to make landfall on Andros Island heading WNW, lol. Still kicking a rather healthy circulation if you ask me.


Seems like someone just read my mind! LOL

After going to the link you provided and taking a real good look, I don't see any surface low over the Keys. But I did see a rather vigorous surface low from ex-Invest 90L. Also seems like its underneath that convective burst over the Bahamas as well. Don't know, but they may have deactivated a bit soon.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
pressure down to 1008.4mb here in sarasota....she's starting to blossom and tighten up a bit now!!!,look at all the rain headed for SWFL!!!!!expect rain amounts between 3-4 inches over the next 24hrs....oh yea everythings drifting west now as the ridge is building further...


How are the Gulf SST's doing ? I am showing 1006 in Bradenton, this thing must be broken.
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pressure down to 1008.4mb here in sarasota....she's starting to blossom and tighten up a bit now!!!,look at all the rain headed for SWFL!!!!!expect rain amounts between 3-4 inches over the next 24hrs....oh yea everythings drifting west now as the ridge is building further...
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Also in that image you can see EX90L about to make landfall on Andros Island heading WNW, lol. Still kicking a rather healthy circulation if you ask me.
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Make that the R6 tower.



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Like usual I get nothing. Only 1.40 inches of rain in West Palm Beach.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Gusting to 43 knots at the Navy R2 tower.

Up to 50 knots a few hours ago.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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