First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting canesrule1:
no, im just telling you in general that me pressure here is low.


I know.. there are some people on here who think at times.. my Halo is tarnished.. and expect me to occasionally make smartypants remarks.. I did not want to disappoint them :)
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no, im just telling you in general that me pressure here is low.

are you a pirate?
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625. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.05.2009

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 26.3N 81.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.05.2009 26.3N 81.3W WEAK
12UTC 20.05.2009 25.1N 80.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.05.2009 25.5N 84.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.05.2009 26.5N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.05.2009 26.9N 88.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.05.2009 27.3N 89.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.05.2009 27.4N 90.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.05.2009 29.1N 91.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.05.2009 30.5N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.05.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

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The SE quad of the ML/UL low is starting to erode with dry air... It needs to get a move on if it doesn't want to get cut off. I'm not holding out much hope for it right now.
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latest west african image
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am not good at this forecasting wizardry like some on here.. but I am pretty sure the two events are not connected :)
no, im just telling you in general that me pressure here is low.
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes I am. Are you coming on a cruise or as a stay over visitor ?


As a stay over visitor. We fly in on the 22nd and leave on the 27th! Staying on the East End.
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Quoting taco2me61:


Yes I do but only if it stays in the Gulf a little while longer.... what i mean is maybe after 96 hrs or longer it could be SubTropical storm "Ana"

Just my thinking....


Hmm May 19th + 96 hours....
Do I hear 48-60 hours please.. it has to be the 21st
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Quoting taco2me61:


Yes I do but only if it stays in the Gulf a little while longer.... what i mean is maybe after 96 hrs or longer it could be SubTropical storm "Ana"

Just my thinking....


Same here, Im in New Orleans and we could use the rain and I think we could handle a 50 mph storm.
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
Quoting Hurricajun:
kmanislander,
You on Grand Cayman? I'll be there in November


Yes I am. Are you coming on a cruise or as a stay over visitor ?
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Quoting canesrule1:
And my barometer is showing 29.69 and falling.


I am not good at this forecasting wizardry like some on here.. but I am pretty sure the two events are not connected :)
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Quoting weatherman874:


Do you think it could form into a 50 mph sub tropical/ tropical storm if it gets enough convection and a low level circualtion?


Yes I do but only if it stays in the Gulf a little while longer.... what i mean is maybe after 96 hrs or longer it could be SubTropical storm "Ana"

Just my thinking....
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Funny.. thats what I thought.. I update that picture everyday, and that is the most I have seen, and further north then normal.
my barometer is showing 29.69 and falling.
Quoting canesrule1:
Damn, thats alot!


Funny.. thats what I thought.. I update that picture everyday, and that is the most I have seen, and further north then normal.
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Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Orcasystems:
Uh oh....

Damn, thats alot!
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Im in Miami and its 29.69 and falling

Blog Update


Invest 90L Tracks


Invest 90L Satellite



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Quoting taco2me61:


I think you are right about that.... The hole Gulf Coast


Do you think it could form into a 50 mph sub tropical/ tropical storm if it gets enough convection and a low level circualtion?
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
kmanislander,
You on Grand Cayman? I'll be there in November
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Uh oh....

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THis morning's QuikSCAT

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting weatherman874:
i think the whole gulf coast will get up to 4 inches of rain from whatever this become if it continues moving westward


I think you are right about that.... The whole Gulf Coast
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Quoting hahaguy:
I got 27.76 inches and falling in Port St. Lucie.
I think you have the record :)
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Jupiter, FL here....All we had was a couple sprinkles. I even floated around the pool getting sun today. Quite breezy though. There are ominous clouds all around except overhead..its crazy!
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i think the whole gulf coast will get up to 4 inches of rain from whatever this become if it continues moving westward
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
I got 27.76 inches and falling in Port St. Lucie.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
My baro says 29.79 and falling I'm in Sarasota
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Quik Scat here
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There is still a better chance..old 90L races westward tonight into Weds and develops a small tight core of only 25 miles with winds in excess of 45-50kt (cause of the ridge to its north giving a pressure gradient)to its north side coming ashore from Cocoa Beach to Daytona .... then the cyclonic low off Naples developing in the next 48 hrs...
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I dont know why everyone is soo excited about a baroclonic low off SW Florida with a warm front thru the northern bahamas out to 60W. Its a typical low pressure system of 1007mbs and nothing near tropical in nature. Rainwise...yes alot of it..and possible stronger storms on Weds as the low moves out further into the GOM.
Chance of this becoming a subtropical system in the next 48hrs is under 10%
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<
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Quoting Drakoen:
the surface low looks like its down by extreme Southwest Florida.


Hi Drak

I haven't been on all day and do not have the time to read back on the blog but the QS pass from this morning shows a well defined surface circulation over W Cuba and off the Keys which seems to be in the area you are referring to.


However, there is also a clearly defined "spin" off the W Coast of Fla. so I am not sure what to make of the QS pass.

Perhaps a tilted system with the surface feature down near Cuba ??
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weather freak:we'll be getting a impressive 2-4 inch rain shield over our area in the next 24hrs....your rain should start between 7-9pm....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970



Things are on the move.
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Quoting StormW:
Most recent Baro. from Naples Buoy at 3:48 PM. 29.77


I have the same reading on my weatherstations barometer!!!!!..I'm located along the immedate coastline,siesta key,sarasota....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


We got 1.40 inches yesterday. Today...absolutely nothing. Those people up in Central Florida are hogging all the rain, just like with Fay.
East Central Florida maybe... it has only rained a trace in Tampa today, and much less was received here yesterday than on the other side of the state.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well I believe it since we have had record cold on the GA coast for the past 2 days.


Not to mention all the other nearby buoys and Navy towers show similar readings.
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I dont believe for a minute that water is 73 degrees, those readings are junk, I remember Masters one year couldnt believe a storm developed out in the northern atlantic when the water was supposed to be in the mid 70s, and it strenghtened.....

bottom line the friggin water is warmer than we all think
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581. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
water is 82-84 along Galveston, were cooking in the NW Gulf
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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