First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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677. IKE
It's starting to cloud up in the western Florida panhandle...74 degrees outside my window...right now.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


As long as Chad doesn't choke...or did we get rid of him??


No he's still there with his weak arm.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Quoting floridastorm:
Dolphins and Saints is better


As long as Chad doesn't choke...or did we get rid of him??
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
674. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


Ike,thats probably the best advice anyone has given me in weeks.


Good luck!
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Dolphins and Saints is better
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Quoting Cotillion:


Steelers won't get there again.


Hey you never know.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Quoting hahaguy:


Nah , Steelers and Saints


Steelers won't get there again.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Cotillion:


Got a sneaky suspicion they will this year actually.. a Saints-Ravens Superbowl.


Nah , Steelers and Saints
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Quoting tkeith:
hundreds of millions of dollars are generated in city hosting the Super Bowl Cottillion, very good for NOLA!

Would be nice if the Saints got to play in one.


Got a sneaky suspicion they will this year actually.. a Saints-Ravens Superbowl.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting tkeith:
hundreds of millions of dollars are generated in city hosting the Super Bowl Cottillion, very good for NOLA!

Would be nice if the Saints got to play in one.



and that's just the gambling....some of the money generated is actually legal...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Just north of St Aug on the Intracoastal Waterway, heavy band moving through gusts up to 35. Intermittent power and cable outage.
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Quoting Cotillion:


How do you feel about it, Pat? Good for the city?
hundreds of millions of dollars are generated in city hosting the Super Bowl Cottillion, very good for NOLA!

Would be nice if the Saints got to play in one.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Drak

I haven't been on all day and do not have the time to read back on the blog but the QS pass from this morning shows a well defined surface circulation over W Cuba and off the Keys which seems to be in the area you are referring to.


However, there is also a clearly defined "spin" off the W Coast of Fla. so I am not sure what to make of the QS pass.

Perhaps a tilted system with the surface feature down near Cuba ??


It is a broad circulation center off SWFL. North of the surface center is the mid to upper level center.
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Pre 91L looks pretty good right now with the convection starting to wrap around the center.

I predict:

a 50% chanche that it will be TD or STD by Thursday
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Quoting Patrap:
New Orleans tops Miami, Phoenix, nabs 2013 Super Bowl

"New Orleans provides an atmosphere that creates fantastic memories, and there is nothing like a Super Bowl to give a city the opportunity to show the world what it is capable of," Benson LeBlanc said. "The NFL loves to come to our city for Super Bowls. And just by the way we entertain the world; there is a tremendous trickle-down effect economically - to our hotels, our restaurants, our vendors, all businesses. We will all benefit from today's announcement."


How do you feel about it, Pat? Good for the city?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
thanks, i agree with you Cebas and think that this disturbance has proved people wrong in the past by going against the dry air and whether it forms or not; all i want is rain.
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
The genesis of this system is one for the books and I'll have to review this interesting setup after the hurricane season.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:


Maybe you just need a break-from-the-blogs. It's good to get away from it, otherwise your sanity is in jeopardy.


Ike,thats probably the best advice anyone has given me in weeks.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15737
New Orleans tops Miami, Phoenix, nabs 2013 Super Bowl

"New Orleans provides an atmosphere that creates fantastic memories, and there is nothing like a Super Bowl to give a city the opportunity to show the world what it is capable of," Benson LeBlanc said. "The NFL loves to come to our city for Super Bowls. And just by the way we entertain the world; there is a tremendous trickle-down effect economically - to our hotels, our restaurants, our vendors, all businesses. We will all benefit from today's announcement."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
agreed, Im out of school and tropical systems are fun and interesting plus we could for sure use the rain
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
just saw a CG plane flying south along the beach here on siesta key beach,they were at about 5000ft...
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Quoting Hurricajun:


As a stay over visitor. We fly in on the 22nd and leave on the 27th! Staying on the East End.
If you are staying on the East End you will be on the nicest part of Grand Cayman. It's the most like the Cayman of years gone by. The least developed and the nicest views.
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653. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
LOL, is it just me that's having trouble following this blog today!!


Maybe you just need a break-from-the-blogs. It's good to get away from it, otherwise your sanity is in jeopardy.
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651. Patrap
9:23 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
GOM IR loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
650. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:22 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
have two cookies and some milk to
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53815
649. Cotillion
9:22 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Don't know if people realised but it's something somewhat storm related:

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- New Orleans is a Super Bowl city again.

NFL owners voted Tuesday to play the 2013 Super Bowl in New Orleans, the first time the championship game will be played there since Hurricane Katrina shredded parts of the Louisiana Superdome. The hurricane caused 1,600 deaths and devastated the Gulf Coast four years ago.

New Orleans beat out Miami -- which sought a record 11th Super Bowl -- and 2008 host Glendale, Ariz., for the game. This is the 10th time New Orleans will be the site for the Super Bowl.

New Orleans last hosted in 2002, when Adam Viniateri's 48-yard field goal as time expired lifted New England over St. Louis.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
648. weatherman874
9:22 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
647. Patrap
9:21 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
646. Cotillion
9:21 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting presslord:
...so....

...ah...

...Did this thing....by any chance...ah....pass through....a....

...Hebert Box?


Ooooh, was waiting for those to come up...

Have a cookie, Press!
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
644. WPBHurricane05
9:19 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
FFS...how hard is it to make it rain EAST of the Turnpike?? Miami Radar
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643. kmanislander
9:18 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
638. Hurricajun 9:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

I will drop you a WU mail
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642. taco2me61
9:17 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


I know.. there are some people on here who think at times.. my Halo is tarnished.. and expect me to occasionally make smartypants remarks.. I did not want to disappoint them :)


I gess thats what you did to me too... " no hard feelings though....

Taco :0)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
641. Cavin Rawlins
9:17 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
TampaBay.com - Bobby Cotton of Tampa’s Stormwater Department lifts a drain cover while trying to remove excess water from the 4600 block of W San Miguel Street in South Tampa on Monday. He said he expected to service several locations due to the rain.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
639. NEwxguy
9:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
LOL, is it just me that's having trouble following this blog today!!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15737
638. Hurricajun
9:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Actually we are at The Reef. We are going for our Honeymoon and after spending every day with our 4 very active kids, we are looking to get away from the hustle and bustle of every day life!!! I can't wait to go! It seems very beautiful! Any restaurant suggestions?? lol I am praying that ya'll are spared storms!!
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
637. presslord
9:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
...so....

...ah...

...Did this thing....by any chance...ah....pass through....a....

...Hebert Box?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
636. kmanislander
9:14 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting Hurricajun:


As a stay over visitor. We fly in on the 22nd and leave on the 27th! Staying on the East End.


I grew up in East End. My parent's home is on the hill beside the lighthouse. Very quiet sea side town.

I assume you are either at Morritts or Royal Reef which are about 5 miles east of the town itself and located on the extreme NE corner of Grand Cayman. Very quiet end of the island.

All of the restaurants and shopping are in George Town, about 25 miles away , but if you like to get away from it all that is the end of the island to be on.

Watersports and lazy days !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
635. Orcasystems
9:13 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
without this thing over us we would be dry.


Now that is deep
Back to check the weather lately.. be good.
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634. jeffs713
9:13 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
"occasionally"????

LOL
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633. SavannahStorm
9:13 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Regardless of how this system is organized, it's already bringing 50+ mph winds.

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2342
632. tornadofan
9:13 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.05.2009

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 26.3N 81.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.05.2009 26.3N 81.3W WEAK
12UTC 20.05.2009 25.1N 80.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.05.2009 25.5N 84.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.05.2009 26.5N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.05.2009 26.9N 88.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.05.2009 27.3N 89.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.05.2009 27.4N 90.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.05.2009 29.1N 91.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.05.2009 30.5N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.05.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



Nice post HGW. Wow!

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631. hahaguy
9:13 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting NRAamy:
no, im just telling you in general that me pressure here is low.

are you a pirate?


Argh!
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629. Cavin Rawlins
9:12 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
24 hrs precipitaion



24 hr estimated precipitation



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
628. jeffs713
9:12 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Those W Africa storms look to be getting some decent shear from the WSW... all the tops are pulling off towards the ENE.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5881
627. Orcasystems
9:12 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting canesrule1:
no, im just telling you in general that me pressure here is low.


I know.. there are some people on here who think at times.. my Halo is tarnished.. and expect me to occasionally make smartypants remarks.. I did not want to disappoint them :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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