First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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I don't expect much development out of the Florida low unless it wants to sent over the GOM for a few days and work out the dry air.

Looks like a big rain maker for North Florida...as usual.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
any more rain for miami?
From what I can tell... after just logging back on... this FL Low is trying to moisten its environment up... the dry air, though some will be spun into the system is being pinched off and pushed back into the main land...jmho
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Quoting sfla82:


I think he means South Florida misses out on the major rain events alot!


I see....

Only got 1.40 inches of rain yesterday....none today. So much for that 90% chance.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Good afternoon

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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


WTF are you talking about?


I think he means South Florida misses out on the major rain events alot!
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any more rain for Miami
Just planted some oaks in the front yard....just a bit more rain in North Palm Beach would make them happy!
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Quoting cg2916:

Current location please?
Its just a matter of time,
It could come Today, Tomorrow, Next week, Next Month. Its only a matter of time.
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Wishcasting and meteorology lol

This tutorial also talks about entrainment, which is what causing drier causing conditions over parts of SFL now.
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Quoting cg2916:

Current location please?


The current guess is the low over Florida, but I don't know with all the dry air- Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting SevereHurricane:


On its way...

Current location please?
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Quoting cg2916:
Where is pre-91L?


On its way...
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Quoting PELLSPROG:



Never fails to amaze me :(


WTF are you talking about?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112


WV Relative Vort Image
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Where is pre-91L?
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Rain bust for coastal Southeast Florida- Link



Never fails to amaze me :(
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Quoting IKE:


Looks like the 18Z GFS hangs on to it for at least 5 days, in the GOM.

Water temps in the northern GOM have fallen a couple of degrees...winds gusting near 45 mph at>>>>>>

Buoy 106 NM WNW of Tampa....



As a weak disorganized almost dry low.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Tell me if I am wrong but there's not really a low level center unless it's a depression. Tropically speaking.


No, I believe that low pressure areas can indeed have a closed surface circulation, but still not be designated tropical cyclones, because of factors such as disorganized convection, or waiting to see if the closed LLCC isn't merely temporary.
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Quoting ChrisDcane:

Ok then wtich blob is ex-90L i cAN SEE 3 BLOBS


The one over the southeast Bahamas. Its getting absorbed into the GOM low.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Tell me if I am wrong but there's not really a low level center unless it's a depression. Tropically speaking.
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704. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
NAM 18z has it dying out in the GOM.


Looks like the 18Z GFS hangs on to it for at least 5 days, in the GOM.

Water temps in the northern GOM have fallen a couple of degrees...winds gusting near 45 mph at>>>>>>

Buoy 106 NM WNW of Tampa....

"Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NNE ( 27 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 66.4 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 75.0 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 61.5 F"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


I don't think there is a center...hence the ex.

Ok then wtich blob is ex-90L i cAN SEE 3 BLOBS
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What is pre-91L.
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Quoting ChrisDcane:
where exactly is "ex" 90L where is it "center"


I don't think there is a center...hence the ex.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
where exactly is "ex" 90L where is it "center"
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NAM 18z has it dying out in the GOM.
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Anyone else on?
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99W in the West Pacific is falling apart- Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Thats good news for New Orleans in another way looks like they will have a team through then. Looks like ball maybe in Jax. court for move to LA. I only bring this up because I now how hard it is to overcome a major hurricane even 10 to 15 years latter for a big city. Trust me even if you dont suffer any damage your homeowners policy will. So wish casters it not worth it even if its something you wont forget.
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Rain just started in Tallahassee about an hour ago... Looks like a couple of long days of rain is in the forecast.
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Quoting cg2916:
90L getting a little better organized...


We like to call it ex-90L.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
UKMET GOM at 72 hours.
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90L getting a little better organized...
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Hey people. I saw 90L last night, and a possible 91L, any possible development here?
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thank you WPBHurr, I appreciate your help. I viewed the grayed comments, gosh didnt see anything bad about them, but thanks all the same for your help
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where exactly is the low pressure area with all that mess over the Bahamas the only one i can see is over west central Florida :-)
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Quoting robinvtx1215:
why do some comments show as a gray line only and I have to click on show to see what they said? thanks


Because you have your comment filter set to hide bad comments. You can change this by going to where the first comment is on the page and right above that it says "Filter". If you want to see all comments click "Show All".
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Rain bust for coastal Southeast Florida- Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
why do some comments show as a gray line only and I have to click on show to see what they said? thanks
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Pat congrats on super bowl but I think its pretty close between Miami and New Orleans as to who gets the most football players and coaches in trouble partying. But I believe you all can use it more right now.
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do we have invest 91L
is the dry air a factor for florida
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456 nice synopsis. The system in gulf has a weak surface circulation but alot of dry air to overcome and probably low water temps. The system in the se Bahamas appears to have more moisture to work with, if high builds into the north and low in gulf keeeps moving west it may get breathing room.
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how long do yall think it will take for this system to get around New Orleans? Friday?
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
677. IKE
It's starting to cloud up in the western Florida panhandle...74 degrees outside my window...right now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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