First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Ok..just FYI everyone..that X 90L is getting better organized this evening..its about 80miles east of Abaco Island.. its about where the GFDL and HWRF had it from the 0z run last night.Now I give this still a 30% chance of developing..but it dont matter..its the winds and rainfall that it brings onshore. The circulation is not compelete with no northwest wind..but winds near and north of the center are running around 40kts or 45-50mph.The center doesnt need to get a strong wind all around remember..just a light northwest wind outwards for 10miles from the COC would classify this. This is expected to slide west later this evening and tonight and near the coast by Weds morning into the afternoon. I'm not going to say this will develop ala last GFDL,HWRF or todays 12z CMC run..but will bring alot of winds onshore near the coast from Cocoa beach-Daytona mainly due to the pressure gradient of the low and high to its north.
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Nice shot of the E blob with the sun setting. Can easily pick out some towers in there...
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What is the forecast for the SAL this year?
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Let me guess though.. he saw a cloud and asked everyone if there was a chance it may develop?
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yea he was freaking out about the torrential light rain mist.


I was disapointed that he didn't give us a damage report...
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Quoting Chicklit:

Austin Powers will be glad to hear that the MJO is coming back.


MJO rising

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
761

Sarcasm. Weatherstudent is in my ignore list for what he did to me Saturday. I am not him

do not ask what he did
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Long time no posts for me, been lurking waiting for the Canes to start coming. Tons of rain off and on today here in 33332 (Weston, FL) Saw my first of the rainy season major lightning strikes today. I watched the water levels in my local lakes and canals quickly rise today to above normal levels. Have a good night all.
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Here is the Portlight T shirt item on Ebay and they do accept Paypal. Save ya a stamp.

Link


Beat me to the punch, sorry for the double up, but it can't hurt. I believe 3 times is a charm.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
futuremet is not JFV... futuremet is knows his stuff
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latest enhanced WV still image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Thanks Oss, here is the link and yes Paypal is an option. Want to make it as easy as possible for as many as possible!

2009 Portlight Limited Edition Shirts Ebay Link
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future Met..are you him..cause last I heard him say he was 17...lol or were you being sarcastic!
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futuremet--

be cautious... you weather opinion is good here...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Wind shear is forecast to become rather favorable towards the end of the month in a large-scale area of the Caribbean as the jet moves toward the north. The MJO should also be around.

Austin Powers will be glad to hear that the MJO is coming back.
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We are getting a TON of rain here just north of Orlando.....................
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Quoting Portlight:
Thanks Chicklit! Hopefully we can raise some money and be able to use it for follow up Ike work at the end of the season...Instead of having to respond to something making landfall this year. Keeping fingers crossed.


I understand they are now on Ebay, do you have a link and is PayPal an option? That would expedite the effort :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
Quoting scottsvb:
The weatherstudent guy is pretty something..I must say.. Are you guys sure he is the age of his picture? I mean...sure thats not a picture of his older brother..and hes like 12 or 13?


NO Doubt!
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Wonder where JFV is at. Saw him on early.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
753

He is actually a genuine college student
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The weatherstudent guy is pretty something..I must say.. Are you guys sure he is the age of his picture? I mean...sure thats not a picture of his older brother..and hes like 12 or 13?
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yea he was freaking out about the torrential light rain mist.


I don't understand, is it out of excitement or fear?
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


I don't know...he got pretty excited over a rain shower last night. Thought his power was going to go out.


Yea he was freaking out about the torrential light rain mist.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Quoting Drakoen:
Wind shear is forecast to become rather favorable towards the end of the month in a large-scale area of the Caribbean as the jet moves toward the north. The MJO should also be around.


Maybe we can keep the trend going with a third straight year with a May storm...lol
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Quoting futuremet:


I don't think he would get excited about something 200hrs out



I don't know...he got pretty excited over a rain shower last night. Thought his power was going to go out.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Thanks jeff, if everyone here would do the same it would go a long way towards improving our response for the "forgotten".
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Wind shear is forecast to become rather favorable towards the end of the month in a large-scale area of the Caribbean as the jet moves toward the north. The MJO should also be around.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Hi everyone! Just popping to let you know I have gotten a mini-blog update posted. Longer, more in-depth blogs will start the first part of June. With Hurricane Preparedness Week coming up be sure to get your supplies ready!
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Umm...don't show JFV....


I don't think he would get excited about something 200hrs out

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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Umm...don't show JFV....


Or WeatherStudent or PresidentialElection
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Umm...don't show JFV....


lol... he would freak
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Hi All, My guage has 2.56 so far out of this rain maker. Never did it rain super hard,nice steady rain. Pasco Fl.
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Quoting futuremet:
Where is it going to hit?!?!?!?!?!?!?



Umm...don't show JFV....
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
so that area of showers is predicted to head our way in the near future?


Which area of showers?
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My check will be on the way for a Portlight T-shirt... or two, or few as of tomorrow.
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Where is it going to hit?!?!?!?!?!?!?

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Drak, been watching that possibility as well. mentioned it earlier, but had no takers. imho, that is the best bet for another invest out of this mess.
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Quoting Vortex95:
it is already cutting off the dry air if you haven't noticed. Also at the head of it some storms are chopping into it as well.


I agree... plus look at the West side of the Water Vapor loop.. moist air is working its way east into the dry air..
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Quoting Drakoen:
The NOGAPS 18z is showing the system dissolving as it moves to the northern GOM. The next thing to pay attention to is a system that may form just east of the Bahamas from the left over tropical moisture. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF indicate the possibility.


Indeed Drak, this is a possibility. Too bad Quickscat missed it.
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Thanks Chicklit! Hopefully we can raise some money and be able to use it for follow up Ike work at the end of the season...Instead of having to respond to something making landfall this year. Keeping fingers crossed.
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The NOGAPS 18z is showing the system dissolving as it moves to the northern GOM. The next thing to pay attention to is a system that may form just east of the Bahamas from the left over tropical moisture. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF indicate the possibility. This would likely be subtropical in nature considering the SSTs and shear.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Quoting sfla82:


I think he means South Florida misses out on the major rain events alot!


You guys are in the driest part of this system; the air should moisten as this system continues to move west, which will inhibit further dry air advection. Regardless, there is adequate energy for the formation of sporadic showers over SFL tonight.
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Hi Portlight. I promise. I will buy a tee shirt.
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I don't expect much development out of the Florida low unless it wants to sent over the GOM for a few days and work out the dry air.

Looks like a big rain maker for North Florida...as usual.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.