First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 827 - 777

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting Tazmanian:



but what dos this all mean how dos this fet in with the 4.7 on sunday and the 4.1 today???


If you check out the list, these happen frequently across the globe. It is hard to determine any patterns. The other day, the Kodiak Island region had over 30, shown in the link also. They are all along the same plate and when it moves, it moves. How severe is practically unpredictable, most trouble is caused by the shallow ones. I will take a hurricane any day over the ground moving under my feet :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Keeper, got anything on SST's around the area that the Mid Level and Low Level are in right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




A perfect fit!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Here's why I think the storm eventually goes dry over the gulf on the models. In the loop on this link you see dry air wrapping around the upper level low from the south. You also see the dry air eroding the moisture in NC. When this meets in a couple days the storm will lose it's moisture feed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
X-90L 26.2N 75.6W 1006mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think you are onto something, along the lines of something big coming. Taz, is there a way to determine if this exact fault that you are talking about, has had any other rumblings that are not in populated areas. In which one can relate to heightened activity
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Hey Taz, the fault could be just letting off a little stress. Having been a SoCal resident, I'd much rather have several smaller quakes rather than one big one! (like the one expected to Salt Lake City in the future - my neighbors & parents think I'm nuts for having earthquake insurance)
But you never know what's going to happen...



could be
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Hey Mel, I haven't checked today. Last night on TWC they were talking about how there was nothing for them to do.


Figures - you set cameras up and wait and ZILCH happens. Kind of how it works. If they packed up and went home, all hell would break loose!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If a COC is indeed forming, then we can say that the dry air is NOT playing a role in the formation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:
They have had a number of smaller ones also over the last few days Taz



Link



but what dos this all mean how dos this fet in with the 4.7 on sunday and the 4.1 today???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
COC looks to be forming off the west coast of south FL. Around 27N83W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:

i have a bad feeling about this that a big one may be on the way at any time now this is now the 2nd one in the same week 1st a 4.7 now this a 4.1

Hey Taz, the fault could be just letting off a little stress. Having been a SoCal resident, I'd much rather have several smaller quakes rather than one big one! (like the one expected to Salt Lake City in the future - my neighbors & parents think I'm nuts for having earthquake insurance)
But you never know what's going to happen...
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Vortex, woulda thought that you might come up with a version of the V2 logo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They have had a number of smaller ones also over the last few days Taz



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

Dunno, but think it might have something to do with 'Dallas' reruns (whatever happened to...not sure never watched the show) ...also JFV is a prototype, a sort of weather punching bag and seems to enjoy the role...need a psychologist really, to figure it all out. This is an on-line community though...perhaps reading William Golding's 'Lord of the Flies' would help to explain the synergy. Everyone should read that book at least once.


Sometimes I dunno if its the Jeff Masters Blog or the Talk-About-JFV Blog. Its old now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ya know, remember last week when Ike was talking about something forming off the Panhandle? Could this be what he was hitting on?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We can thank the seabreeze storms that formed over Cuba and Hispaniola for a lot of this convection that's not streaming into Florida. Watching the IR loop you can see how the storms from the islands formed and were sucked into the low then thrown into Fl's east coast.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
This is what happens when you take a blogger like myself and keep him cooped up without any tropical items to talk about. Sooner or later I burst with questions. Anyone in here such as Drak can relate, its the getting-over-hibernation-from-winter syndrome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
807. Vero1
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
on that map that vero just posted, you can see a spin located off the west coast. Someone mentioned last year that the NHC was talking about using unmanned drones as a way to study storms that are close to land. Has that idea come up with this low?

On other maps you can see some type of spin overland, around Ft. Myers, yet there is an abundance of dry air in the GOM. Whats keeping this system going: The everglades?

That was averaged 850-650mb....Here is the surface:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
796 I will take all this system has to offer in the rain department. I see a really good shot of rain on my doorstep.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Blog Update


Invest 90L Tracks


Invest 90L Satellite


Time for the Hockey Game :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another Earthquake Rattles L.A.


A moderate earthquake has been felt in downtown Los Angeles but there are no immediate reports of damage or injuries.

The magnitude-4.1 temblor was centered 10 miles southwest of downtown Los Angeles near the Los Angeles International Airport.

Los Angeles City Fire spokesman Brian Humphrey says no damage has been reported and there has been no increase in emergency calls.

He says the department is going into standard earthquake emergency mode, which means firefighters will be driving through their districts checking for any possible damage





some in most be up


i have a bad feeling about this that a big one may be on the way at any time now this is now the 2nd one in the same week 1st a 4.7 now this a 4.1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FloridaTigers:
Honestly, the whole JFV thing is so old. Why can everyone just ignore him?

Dunno, but think it might have something to do with 'Dallas' reruns (whatever happened to...not sure never watched the show) ...also JFV is a prototype, a sort of weather punching bag and seems to enjoy the role...need a psychologist really, to figure it all out. This is an on-line community though...perhaps reading William Golding's 'Lord of the Flies' would help to explain the synergy. Everyone should read that book at least once.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How do you get a photo to show as your default?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone have the graphic, showing how much the Lake has gotten from this rain event? Vs how much the metro areas have gotten?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
791 How many years has that been going on?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting melwerle:
Has there been any live feed on tornado coverage wtih vortex 2?

Hey Mel, I haven't checked today. Last night on TWC they were talking about how there was nothing for them to do.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting severstorm:
Hi All, My guage has 2.56 so far out of this rain maker. Never did it rain super hard,nice steady rain. Pasco Fl.
And a lot more is coming tonight. There isn't a break in the rain for about 200 miles to our east :)
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
on that map that vero just posted, you can see a spin located off the west coast. Someone mentioned last year that the NHC was talking about using unmanned drones as a way to study storms that are close to land. Has that idea come up with this low?

On other maps you can see some type of spin overland, around Ft. Myers, yet there is an abundance of dry air in the GOM. Whats keeping this system going: The everglades?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has there been any live feed on tornado coverage wtih vortex 2?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure gradient down south is low, compared to the rest of the state. What I have noticed living here in south florida is that though we have the dry air present. Its not having that much of an effect on how the rain forms and such. I will say this, where I work in Downtown Ft. Lauderdale we have barely gotten a trace of rain. While those in the western suburbs and up in Boca are getting pounded daily.

Is there anything one can infer going on this information as to whats going on in the upper atmospheres?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
789. Vero1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is an interesting thought, Is there a way to look at the tornadic activity before the hurricane season starts, and see if there is any relation to an active tornado season and an active hurricane season?

What were the tornado seasons in the past 5 years like, compared with how active the hurricane seasons were?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Honestly, the whole JFV thing is so old. Why can everyone just ignore him?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll be in Gulf Shores this weekend and next week any predictions on this thing? Will it form or not?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
784. Vero1
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Vortex, would be nice to have your input on something mentioned last night.

Why is it that we are seeing an upshot in tropical activity as of late, and a downshot in Tornadic activity?

MJO is on the move.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Vortex, would be nice to have your input on something mentioned last night.

Why is it that we are seeing an upshot in tropical activity as of late, and a downshot in Tornadic activity?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That's interesting, almost looks like a center, but not?>

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How many times last year did we see the storms die out around the Bahamas and refire again to become stronger. Remember, the saying: These models should not be used for guidance. Its just computers running on the information provided to them, however the information will keep on changing no matter what each of us says.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
774 heres another wv enhance image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
Ok..just FYI everyone..that X 90L is getting better organized this evening..its about 80miles east of Abaco Island.. its about where the GFDL and HWRF had it from the 0z run last night.Now I give this still a 30% chance of developing..but it dont matter..its the winds and rainfall that it brings onshore. The circulation is not compelete with no northwest wind..but winds near and north of the center are running around 40kts or 45-50mph.The center doesnt need to get a strong wind all around remember..just a light northwest wind outwards for 10miles from the COC would classify this. This is expected to slide west later this evening and tonight and near the coast by Weds morning into the afternoon. I'm not going to say this will develop ala last GFDL,HWRF or todays 12z CMC run..but will bring alot of winds onshore near the coast from Cocoa beach-Daytona mainly due to the pressure gradient of the low and high to its north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 827 - 777

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
52 °F
Overcast