Gathering extratropical storm set to drench Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:11 PM GMT on May 17, 2009

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A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba, in association with a mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to eight inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 2), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm developing over Cuba to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance).


Figure 1. Latest IR satellite image of the Atlantic, showing the gathering extratropical storm near the eastern tip of Cuba, and the cut-off low spinning in the mid-Atlantic.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation amount between 8am EDT Sunday 5/17/09 and 8am EDT Friday 5/22/09. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

There has been little change to the large upper-level cold low spinning in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The low may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1460. sfla82
Looking at the radar here in Ft. Lauderdale is clear, all the rain is heading to Central and North Florida and up. I dont believe we will be getting as much rain as we first thought out of this "blob". I have three days coming up this week so it looks like I will get my fising in after all!!!!!
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The 00Z GFS model develops a surface low over Central Cuba tomorrow evening. This run already seems highly suspect as the GFS develops the low over Cuba.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That new low pressure north of Cuba may become the dominant player....hmmm :) Which model made the best guess for that?


GFS, no?
1457. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
night orca get well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
1455. Patrap
NCEP/EMC Tracking of Cyclogenesis in Models


U.S. East Coast (last 4 cycles, lat/lon)



Multi-Model
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089

Blog Update


Area of Interest #1


Area of Interest #2


Off to bed early with a vicious headache.. you guys have fun :)
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Quoting StormW:


That would be cool...if you want. I've been in a number of 'em at the USCG Air Station here in Clearwater, and toured the P-3's at MacDill. You're right, some pretty neat stuff! Would love to fly a storm with 'em.

Night all!


Night, Mr. W!
.
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Quoting melwerle:


I listen to ALL kinds of talk radio - and from different points of view all day - from conservative to liberal and everything in between. I kind of try to view this from my listening standpoint - if someone has a relavant view and can back it up, I listen. If they are just going by gut or emotion, I let it go. I enjoy everyone's comments really - (well most anyway - the one's I think are irritating I have one ignore and I'm sure everyone has their own ignore list) - debating is just a fact of every day life.


Excellent Post Mel...
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Guantanamo Bay Cuba Radar

Guantanamo Bay Cuba Radar
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Taz i'm curious where you born?
1446. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Drakoen:
New area of low pressure forecasted just north of Cuba:
iam noticing a twist to atomsphere near or just nw of there on anmin sat imagest
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
this will be the area the models have been picking up on as it drifts west back in the general direction of jamaica,as a front stalls over FL the area will move over fl southern tip into the gulf stream area off sefl's coast then a slight drift to the north before a ridge builds back and pushes the low back onshore near the cape canaveral area as a STS,from there the low should move into the GOM just north of TPA and slowly drift NW as it possibly becomes tropical...IMO of course
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Congrats to your daughter, Pat!
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


PLEASE, they've classfield worser looking entities before in the past.


That feature isn't going to develop JFV,
But it may play a role by being absorbed by the ULL.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
1440. Drakoen
New area of low pressure forecasted just north of Cuba:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
Quoting LightningCharmer:

I actually enjoy the competative nature of the bloggers here.


I listen to ALL kinds of talk radio - and from different points of view all day - from conservative to liberal and everything in between. I kind of try to view this from my listening standpoint - if someone has a relavant view and can back it up, I listen. If they are just going by gut or emotion, I let it go. I enjoy everyone's comments really - (well most anyway - the one's I think are irritating I have one ignore and I'm sure everyone has their own ignore list) - debating is just a fact of every day life.
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orca we would love to see the pic.
1437. JRRP
so that.. the NAM now is good .... I thought that NAM is not very good to predict this type of phenomenon
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1436. beell
1423.
IF the sheer is low enough over the area

Good use of capital letters, stillwaiting!
(imho)
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Start of a small train?

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it kinda choked out so maybe they got a little hesitant


PLEASE, they've classfield worser looking entities before in the past.
1433. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Chicklit:
Link
So they put a floater on it, call it an Invest but no number attached?
it kinda choked out so maybe they got a little hesitant
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting Patrap:
My Graduate today,From Freshman in 2005, her school Flooded from Katrina.They all returned from Baton Rouge in January 06.Renewed and stronger,...

To Summa Cum Laude at St. Mary Dominican High,New Orleans.


Congratulations and Love to My Daughter.











Beautiful Pic. Job well done! for both your daughter and you!
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1431. Patrap
Thanks Paul. We thought a lot about all the events past 4 years.

Sharing here and knowing we can all make a difference,has been a continuing blessing.

Thanks to the wunderground and all the friends weve made here too.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1430. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
My Graduate today,From Freshman in 2005, her school Flooded from Katrina.They all returned from Baton Rouge in January 06.Renewed and stronger,...

To Summa Cum Laude at St. Mary Dominican High,New Orleans.


Congratulations and Love to My Daughter.
a href="My Graduate today,From Freshman in 2005, her school Flooded from Katrina.They all returned from Baton Rouge in January 06.Renewed and stronger,... To Summa Cum Laude at St. Mary Dominican High,New Orleans. Congratulations and Love to My Daughter. a href="My Graduate today,From Freshman in 2005, her school Flooded from Katrina.They all returned from Baton Rouge in January 06.Renewed and stronger,... To Summa Cum Laude at St. Mary Dominican High,New Orleans. Congratulations and Love to My Daughter. " target="_blank">





all the best to your daughter pat congrats
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting Patrap:
My Graduate today,From Freshman in 2005, her school Flooded from Katrina.They all returned from Baton Rouge in January 06.Renewed and stronger,...

To Summa Cum Laude at St. Mary Dominican High,New Orleans.


Congratulations and Love to My Daughter.











Congrats indeed, and God bless her! Best of luck to her.
shear over the blob is continuing to decrease
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Link
So they put a floater on it, call it an Invest but no number attached?
Just saw your message Patrap!
A happy day, indeed, and a happy dad.
Quite an accomplishment.
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Outstanding Pat!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Congratulations!!!!!!
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1425. Patrap
My Graduate today,From Freshman in 2005, her school Flooded from Katrina.They all returned from Baton Rouge in January 06.Renewed and stronger,...

To Summa Cum Laude at St. Mary Dominican High,New Orleans.


Congratulations and Love to My Daughter.









Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting StormW:


...thinking I may have missed something...sometimes these old eyes don't catch everything.
Your eyes seem to catch more than most on here. No offense was taken just didn't want to appear to be an expert especially with tropical weather.
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once in the GOM, the slower it moves the more likely it transitions to a warm core,IF the sheer is low enough over the area.I still think this could be a STS or TS if sheer is under 10kts and it lingers over some deeper waters,IMO
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Quoting RMM34667:
I think all this "snipping" at each other gives free license to those coming out of the woodwork to snipe at whoever they choose...

I actually enjoy the competative nature of the bloggers here. I learn quite a bit from their differing points of view. What I don't like is when bloggers on here get personal, not personal in saying hello or describing their day, profession, etc. or making a joke but when attacking another member's character.

I rely on this blog as one of my sources in preparedness; being in south Florida and responsible for property, I need all the early warning I can get.

Please keep the respectful, responsible and sometimes entertaining debate going strong. I'll be one of those out here reading it, and hopefully learning from it.
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1421. beell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1008 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

...LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG-RANGE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED...MAINLY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO FORM IN THE ERN GOMEX
WHICH WILL HAVE A SFC REFLECTION ANYWHERE FROM THE FL ATLC COAST
TO THE FL GULF COAST. WITH THE SFC SYSTEM LIKELY TO REMAIN S OF
THE SC/GA COAST...THIS WILL CREATE PERSISTENT STRONG N-NE WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MAKING FOR A BRIEF
DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE MAY AFFECT THE COAST COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. BY
TUE NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW DEEPENS OVER THE ERN GOMEX AND HELPS TO
STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE S AND E...INTO COASTAL GA AND
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE STACKED LOW BECOMES
QUITE PROBLEMATIC SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST CHC OF POPS
AND TO HAVE POPS ANY HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT...ESP WITH SUCH VARIED
MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DEVELOPS...THE THREAT
FOR RAIN WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THERE ARE INDICATION THAT FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME ALONG THE COAST. THE DEEP
LOW LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
A WEAK PRES PATTERN IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE
AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE FOR MENTION OF AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

...LONG TERM...MODELS STILL HAVE DISCREPANCIES FOLLOWING THE LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CUBA ALTHO NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY. WE WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING INDIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO FCST WED-SUN ATTM...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

...LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN
WILL DRIFT NWWD WITH TIME INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GOMEX UNDER A MID/UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN GOMEX. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOWER
HEIGHTS/PRESSURES IS FCST BY ALL OF THE MODELS...WITH THE 00Z GFS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER/FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS LOW CENTER THAN THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODEL
TRENDS...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
SOLUTIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SEVERAL IMPLICATIONS ON THE
EXTENDED FCST. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH AND EAST OF LOW`S
FCST TRACK WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...WILL CAP SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 KT AND GUSTS AT 35 KT EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THESE WIND CAPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY LATER
SHIFTS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AS THE GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE NW...E-SE FLOW WILL DRAW ATLANTIC AND GOMEX MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR THE WED-FRI
TIME FRAME. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GOMEX DURING THIS
TIME...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A SLOW MOVER AS IT DRIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. SOME AREA
RIVERS ARE STILL ELEVATED FROM THE EARLY SPRING RAINS...AND THIS
RAINFALL THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

ALSO DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW...TIDES ALONG APALACHEE
BAY MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THE MIDDLE...AND ESPECIALLY LATER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THIS LOW IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A POSITION SOMEWHERE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF FLORIDA BIG BEND WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
416 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED
PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GULF LOW PRESSURE THAT WE HAVE BEEN MENTIONING FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS MIDSHIFT SAID...THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AMOUNGST THE MODELS...BUT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO
DEVELOP A SYSTEM WHICH EVENTUALLY WINDS UP IN THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS
SYSTEM...SHOULD IT DEVELOP...WILL BE PURELY TROPICAL BUT A GOOD RAIN
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT NEXT
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. 12/DS


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

...LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED GULF SYSTEM WILL SEND
ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE NORTH/WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY. SFC
LOW WILL BE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY
THURSDAY SO THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SYSTEM DRIFTS INLAND SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AL/MS COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED
BY MEAN UPR LVL WESTERLIES OVER THE MID MS VLY
. AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE WITH CUT-OFF LOWS...TRACK AND TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE
ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN THE
TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. NADLER.83
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1420. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
00z nam goes sub 1000 mb at 72 hours
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Glad the magic crushed the celtics big dwight fan. Based on the last 00z NAM run it might make a run at warm core once in the gulf but we'll see.
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Quoting Vortex95:
btw Drak who would be the frist person you would want to cross? :P


lol
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1416. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good evening coming on 11 pm almost time for refire
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
btw Drak who would be the first person you would want to cross on the blog? :P
1413. dearmas
Quoting Tazmanian:
send all Rain that FL will be geting too CA and send them the heat wave


Heat is what we have already...We need rain
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Storm i got some pics i took about 3 years ago when i toured the C130.The max payload is about 42,000 pounds and it carry a wide variety of oversized cargo.I was actually up in the cockpit messing with the Weatherbird computer software its real nice.I'll see if i can send you some pics.

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1410. 0741
Quoting Vortex95:
Could two tropical depressions collide? Not ts's or hurricanes but TD's.
that have never happen what i remember
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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