Gathering extratropical storm set to drench Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:11 PM GMT on May 17, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba, in association with a mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to eight inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 2), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm developing over Cuba to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance).


Figure 1. Latest IR satellite image of the Atlantic, showing the gathering extratropical storm near the eastern tip of Cuba, and the cut-off low spinning in the mid-Atlantic.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation amount between 8am EDT Sunday 5/17/09 and 8am EDT Friday 5/22/09. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

There has been little change to the large upper-level cold low spinning in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The low may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 60 - 10

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Keeper what direcion do you think this is moving or is it stationary
its just sitting there expanding and dev it moved e se from its startng point but should pull nw over time then n
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WPBT PBS 2 in South Florida has "Anatomy of a Hurricane" on now. They show what the NHC looks like during hurricane season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
57. IKE
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
The wind is starting to pick up here


Kingston / Norman Manley, Jamaica (Airport)
Updated: 29 min 48 sec ago
Light Rain
75 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 77%
Dew Point: 69 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.94 in
Visibility: 12.0 miles
Clouds:
Few 1772 ft
Mostly Cloudy 7874 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting hurricane23:
Pressures have actually been rising as i mentioned earlier based on obs around the area.Nothing really out there near the surface.

Lakers game starts at 3.


ADRIAN, how on God's green earth can pressures be raising inside of an ever expanding deep and cold ball of convection? Therefore, do pigs have wings and can they fly? LOL, ROFL.
which way do you think this blob is moving
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The NOGAPS and CMC have it reaching the western tip of Cuba way too fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You all will need this today.....LOL

Troll Juice Recipes
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Cool,S Carolina nice place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wind is starting to pick up here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Someone get Taz. Pinhole eye alert!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


lol, I was just joshing with ya. There's no eye present at the moment tho.

lol I must be seeing things
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A STS is Kinda,Like a Hurricane...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Were any of the models forecasting it to spin up, where it is?

I don't recall them developing it this far east.


I don't either which is why i'm sticking with the GFS and UKMET for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressures have actually been rising as i mentioned earlier based on obs around the area.Nothing really out there near the surface.

Lakers game starts at 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Yeah I can see it on the loop


lol, I was just joshing with ya. There's no eye present at the moment tho.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes, but not for the next two weeks. I am visiting my folks here in cloudy Summerville, SC:-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
28. its likely a prostetic.
Nash,u still in Cowboy Land?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
41. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


I'm thinking a pinhole eye.


Pinhole ye say?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Weather456:


I'm thinking a pinhole eye.

Yeah I can see it on the loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
I see an eye like feature developing at around 17-18 north close to jamaica


I'm thinking a pinhole eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow 70% rain tomorrow and 80% on Tuesday with T-storms/wind for Boca Raton.Well here is the start of the rainy season or....early hurricane season as you call it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hello nash
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI
17.7N/75.5W
1KM VIS STILL IMAGE

Keeper what direcion do you think this is moving or is it stationary
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
34. IKE
Were any of the models forecasting it to spin up, where it is?

I don't recall them developing it this far east.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Eye? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


definate spin SE of jamaica there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AOI
17.7N/75.5W
1KM VIS STILL IMAGE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now is the Time to gather your supplies and get organized for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season,..

Hurricane Preparation

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see an eye like feature developing at around 17-18 north close to jamaica
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


Hey WPB i put together a florida radar page which includes news radars from CBS 12 StormTrac Doppler Radar and NBC6 from down here feel free to use.I just added a few weeks back the new Intellicast Hi-Res Interactive Radar.One of my favorites is COD and RAP.


Thanks for the link. You have a great site!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DR. Masters you say a 10% chance i said 3% chance! Can we come to a middle agreement.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reasonable averages although it would not surpise if localised areas would get over 10 inches in this period.
Blast from the past, LOL- Link

5 hours later- Link

Show's how fast things can change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Thanks for the update. I don't understand why he thinks it will be extratropical.


It's looking more likely to be purely tropical, isn't it, Drak?
Quoting Drakoen:
Thanks for the update. I don't understand why he thinks it will be extratropical.
keep the hpye down in the blog maybe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10% seems very low to me so if i put down a buck i get 90$ back % and weather dont make since to me i give it 50% that my wife is happy when i see here next! happy weather
Quoting Drakoen:
Thanks for the update. I don't understand why he thinks it will be extratropical.


nvm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Looks like rainy season has begun at my house- Link

I imagine this is only the beginning.

For those of you that live in South Florida, WPBT PBS 2 will have "Anatomy of a Hurricane" from 11:30 am to 12:00 pm. Looks like they hung out at the National Hurricane Center during the 04 season.


Hey WPB i put together a florida radar page which includes news radars from CBS 12 StormTrac Doppler Radar and NBC6 from down here feel free to use.I just added a few weeks back the new Intellicast Hi-Res Interactive Radar.One of my favorites is COD and RAP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWC forecast for Port Saint Lucie
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reminding me of Barry more and more.
No one thought that Barry would develop over 40 kt Shear but it did. So, I still think his chances are a little low even with the shear.I really need a good rainy week for my lawn.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Close-up

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters.
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thanks doc it has persisted now for 24 hrs now

next step INV 90L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks. Short and to the point, but:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
70% chance of rain tomorrow and 80% on Tuesday for Miami....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 60 - 10

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
54 °F
Overcast