Gathering extratropical storm set to drench Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:11 PM GMT on May 17, 2009

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A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba, in association with a mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to eight inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 2), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm developing over Cuba to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance).


Figure 1. Latest IR satellite image of the Atlantic, showing the gathering extratropical storm near the eastern tip of Cuba, and the cut-off low spinning in the mid-Atlantic.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation amount between 8am EDT Sunday 5/17/09 and 8am EDT Friday 5/22/09. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

There has been little change to the large upper-level cold low spinning in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The low may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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GFS on its 0z run is showing a extra tropical low with almost no tropical characteristics after 42hrs.. It seem to more of a elongated trough of lower pressure from the Keys to the Bahamas with a weak low on its northend moving back west in response to the building ridge moving over the mid-atlantic later this week.

Overall the system dont look like more than a weak extra-tropical low with rain for florida.I'm not saying this is what will happen..just regarding the gfs Ozrun.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Whatever happens this season, I love all the bloggers. So what if we "wishcast", or are convinced of one thing versus another, ARE NOT we brothers and sisters, united in a common interest? "C'mon people, shine on me brother, everybody get together, try to love one another, right now!"
REMEMBER, even if jealously or anger overwhelms us, ARE WE NOT unified in a common interest? Can't we all be friends???? WE should be. If it's not our coastal city, it is another, and there by the grace of God, go us! Love to everyone from the Jersey Shore, with a wish of peace and tranquility for all! Everyone's friend, Pete
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A 5.0 magnitude earthquake shook the Los Angeles area on Sunday, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

The quake, centered southwest of Los Angeles 1 mile east of Lennox, California, was 8.4 miles deep.

A spokesman for the Los Angeles Fire Department said there were no immediate reports of damage or injury
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115554
crap the next earthquake may see may be geting a 6.0 or higher the earthquake are geting stronger and stronger evere time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115554
Updated Link USGS
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1502. sky1989
The low in the Central Atlantic is not looking very promising.
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is low pressure usually considered under 29.95in or????
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting Tazmanian:
1st some one said 3.1 then 5.0 now 4.7 wish one is it???


5.0
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1499. Patrap
Shakemap sc10410337


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130814
1498. Seastep
Quoting Seastep:


Official is now 4.7.


Retracted. That was from news story, but USGS still showing 5.0.
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Quoting Seastep:


Official is now 4.7.


I see 5.0 on pat's USGS link.
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1st some one said 3.1 then 5.0 now 4.7 wish one is it???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115554
1494. beell
Re: the two lows.
Probably only one will remain. The model can't quite figure out where to place the suface low/surface reflection under the mid-level low/trough.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he's jfv taz



yes keep i no
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115554
WS, leave Taz alone. There's a lot worse said on this blog. At least it wasn't directed towards another blogger.
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1491. Seastep
Quoting wishcasterfromfsu:
quake was just upgraded to a 5.0 no??


Official is now 4.7.
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Dam the earthquake are geting stronger and stronger the last time LA was hit by a earthquake it was a 4.0



i new this was comeing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115554
1487. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
he's jfv taz
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 56966
Quoting WeatherStudent:
WOW, what is the GFS doing to our system tonight, God o' mighty.


You remind me of Chicken Little.
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When I was young this sort of disturbance happened every year.That was in the 60ies. There seems to be a change in the winds from the westerlies to the easterlies, with what I would call a weakness in between somewhere around 80w.It would always rain for about a week or two sometimes very intense, I believe that is what is about to occur next week. Only difference is we can pick out an area of low pressure thanks to satellites.They called it a stalled front.
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oh dos he think he is that he can boss me a round
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115554
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Please do not use written grammatical profanity on this blog, thank you very much.


Cut him some slack man. He found out an earthquake happened near his area. Don't know about you, but if an earthquake was happening near me, I would be saying far worse things.
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1482. Patrap
The posted USGS Data is the early first info push.

Im sure a updated one will come out soon.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130814
Good Morning everyone.....
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Please do not use written grammatical profanity on this blog, thank you very much.




your not my boss
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115554
quake was just upgraded to a 5.0 no??
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1476. Patrap
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 3.1
Date-Time

* Monday, May 18, 2009 at 03:45:10 UTC
* Sunday, May 17, 2009 at 08:45:10 PM at epicenter

Location 33.938, 118.356
Depth 11.5 km (7.1 miles)
Region GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
Distances

* 0 km (0 miles) SSE (151 degrees) from Lennox, CA
* 2 km (2 miles) NNW (34 degrees) from Hawthorne, CA
* 2 km (2 miles) SSW (202 degrees) from Inglewood, CA
* 5 km (3 miles) ENE (69 degrees) from El Segundo, CA
* 16 km (10 miles) SW (218 degrees) from Los Angeles Civic Center, CA

Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 0.4 km (0.2 miles); depth /- 0.8 km (0.5 mile
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130814
Wow the 00Z GFS is very interesting,
The Bahamas Low absorbs the GOM Low at around 66hrs. and turns it west there after.
This is very interesting but im not saying its right though...
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Using the Floater Satellite Loop from Tropical RAMSDIS, you can see some slight rotation in the area where Keeper highlighted earlier. Very nice catch there Keeper. Now lets see this become better defined and persist before we begin jumping on that as the new focal point.
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thats strong
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115554
1472. Patrap
EarthQuake hits L.A.


USGS Map

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130814
crap
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115554
1470. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Could you provide a link to that satellite imagery you're referring to since I'm having a hard time seeing it with the SSD imagery? Thanks.
i use weather tap cchs ya need a subscription if i sent ya a link u will just get a pop up to log in
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 56966
GFS @54 hrs...

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Patrap you must truly be proud, congratulations to and your daughter, and yourself you both deserve it.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
The 00Z GFS run has become much more interesting now. Through 42 hours now, it develops two lows: one off the SW Florida Coast and one in the Southern Bahamas. Now I'm very interested to see what the rest of the run shows.


The GFS is already wrong, IMO it has been fooled into developing the Carribean disturbance, which should get absorbed into the ULL in the Gulf.
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1466. Seastep
Apologize for off-topic, but initial 5.0 mag just hit near L.A.

Link
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1465. Patrap
GOM IR Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130814
1464. Patrap
Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami. Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information.

Caribbean Sector,IR Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130814
The 00Z GFS run has become much more interesting now. Through 42 hours now, it develops two lows: one off the SW Florida Coast and one in the Southern Bahamas. Now I'm very interested to see what the rest of the run shows.
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1462. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


cen fix 23n/78w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 56966
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam noticing a twist to atomsphere near or just nw of there on anmin sat imagest


Could you provide a link to that satellite imagery you're referring to since I'm having a hard time seeing it with the SSD imagery? Thanks.
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1460. sfla82
Looking at the radar here in Ft. Lauderdale is clear, all the rain is heading to Central and North Florida and up. I dont believe we will be getting as much rain as we first thought out of this "blob". I have three days coming up this week so it looks like I will get my fising in after all!!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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