Gathering extratropical storm set to drench Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:11 PM GMT on May 17, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba, in association with a mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to eight inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 2), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm developing over Cuba to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance).


Figure 1. Latest IR satellite image of the Atlantic, showing the gathering extratropical storm near the eastern tip of Cuba, and the cut-off low spinning in the mid-Atlantic.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation amount between 8am EDT Sunday 5/17/09 and 8am EDT Friday 5/22/09. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

There has been little change to the large upper-level cold low spinning in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The low may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 960 - 910

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Quoting CosmicEvents:

Oh boy.
Here we go again.
Different year, same ol' stuff.
Before anyone else says it, let me be the first to invoke the 2 famous words this year.
In that last image, do I see a pinhole eye?



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting IKE:
18Z NOGAPS does the same thing!


Looks like she drifted too far east to give me the rain I wanted. Guess I will have to wait until June when we start getting our afternoon thunderstorms.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting Twinkster:
isn't it true that the 06Z and 18Z model runs are not as accurate as the 00Z and the 12Z im not sure just asking


yes

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


That's how I found the Cuban radar lol. I don't have it bookmarked.


I usually hit http://hurricanewarning1.com/radar.html, which I have linked in my blog. As long as I don't get kicked off WU, should be there...not changing it for any reason.

(Might add on for a local SE LA landfall, for which I'll surely be around for)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Right, and the midnight run of the GFS is gonna have our storm making landfall in Virginia at this rate. Discard that mumbo-jumbo for the time being.



whats not and say we did
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Interesting...Now back to the weather!
Still not looking to good.

Is the center trying to relocate south of Haiti
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
ok who wanna bet TD by 10 pm tonight

Oh boy.
Here we go again.
Different year, same ol' stuff.
Before anyone else says it, let me be the first to invoke the 2 famous words this year.
In that last image, do I see a pinhole eye?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Twinkster:
isn't it true that the 06Z and 18Z model runs are not as accurate as the 00Z and the 12Z im not sure just asking



?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Walshy:
Post #939.

Alien space ship on the right.


Interesting...Now back to the weather!
Still not looking to good.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting wxhatt:


Are you in FL.? B/C the Weather Channel is now saying the low in combination with the front will bring 3 plus inches to that area...



i live in CA
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting Drakoen:


OMG too funny....Wait. Nope.


Wait for the past few post I was not speaking to you so why are you quoting my comments. Plz speak when you are spoken too. Apparently, you could not handle the fact that I told you to google it. Learn to eat what you dish out.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
947. IKE
18Z NOGAPS does the same thing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post #939.

Alien space ship on the right.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is fun


Are you in FL.? B/C the Weather Channel is now saying the low in combination with the front will bring 3 plus inches to that area...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Looks like crap!
Quoting Weather456:
Yep. Been seeing a lot of them just hanging around on the power lines.

uhuh, especially when one gets near an expose wire making for some good barbecue porkchops.


OMG too funny....Wait. Nope.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Yep. Been seeing a lot of them just hanging around on the power lines.

uhuh, especially when one gets near an expose wire making for some good barbecue porkchops.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


really cuz that is just what you told storm awhile ago


That's how I found the Cuban radar lol. I don't have it bookmarked.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Hmmmm, all hype, little rain? More of a chance of Senator Crist than TS Ana for Florida?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Sighted just east of Tampa.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
this is fun
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL. I didn't need to. I found it myself. Mr. Attitude.


really cuz that is just what you told storm awhile ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
isn't it true that the 06Z and 18Z model runs are not as accurate as the 00Z and the 12Z im not sure just asking
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Very lame...try again


No, not really. It seemed to fit perfectly for you.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting Drakoen:


You could always google that.


Very lame...try again
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


Yep....but I won't be here becuz tonight is also good viewing for watching the sky as pigs migrate.


I hope to see the pig migration also

LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
Billy WOBBLE!!!

Hah!

Quoting Weather456:

Yep....but I won't be here becuz tonight is also good viewing for watching the sky as pigs migrate.


Yep. Been seeing a lot of them just hanging around on the power lines.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS 18Z 48hr Precip

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Yep....but I won't be here becuz tonight is also good viewing for watching the sky as pigs migrate.


You could always google that.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562

I'm beginning to see a surface low.
Quoting hurricane23:
18z GFS doesn't look good for southeast florida rainfall wise.


The 18z run is usually the most whacky run for the models. It will be interesting to see if this is a trend. If it is a trend, it most likely means the models believe our system will be a little stronger than previously thought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW! that much odds against it, really if ai had 1mill i would be somewhere else not behind this computer believe me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
926. IKE
Looks like it crosses Florida around Orlando and Tampa areas.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxhatt:


Do you think that upper level conditions are going to favor a STD? I think Dr. Jeff said that there is a 10 percent chance.


yes thing are some what favor wind shear is olny 20kt


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
ok who wanna bet TD by 10 pm tonight


Yep....but I won't be here becuz tonight is also good viewing for watching the sky as pigs migrate.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
ok who wanna bet TD by 10 pm tonight


It wont be a TD tonight. Maybe not even until Tuesday.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Two things are apparent from the WV Loop.

The system is lifting slowly to the N and the moisture content is falling rapidly. The GFS may well be right placing it well E of Fla. given current motion.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
921. IKE
Quoting acCane08:
GFS 18Z @ 78 hrs



Yeah...it's heading for the GOM.

I wonder what the shift east does to pre90L's intensity chances vs. a more westward track to start.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think depending on how well it stays together, the invest might be a TD tommorow or Tuesday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Sometimes they end up being too friendly


Yea that sounds familiar.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
ok who wanna bet TD by 10 pm tonight



AH AH AH you will loss big time on the beat
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
18z GFS doesn't look good for southeast florida rainfall wise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L by monday AM for sure


Do you think that upper level conditions are going to favor a STD? I think Dr. Jeff said that there is a 10 percent chance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Low cloud deck looks to be getting influenced by the low a little more on the latest visible loop.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
ok who wanna bet TD by 10 pm tonight
Me, 1,000,000 crows
by the way where are fun for the E Pacific
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235

Viewing: 960 - 910

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
65 °F
Overcast