Gathering extratropical storm set to drench Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:11 PM GMT on May 17, 2009

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A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba, in association with a mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to eight inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 2), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm developing over Cuba to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance).


Figure 1. Latest IR satellite image of the Atlantic, showing the gathering extratropical storm near the eastern tip of Cuba, and the cut-off low spinning in the mid-Atlantic.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation amount between 8am EDT Sunday 5/17/09 and 8am EDT Friday 5/22/09. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

There has been little change to the large upper-level cold low spinning in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The low may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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I think this system is dead it had a good run but it is under a lot of shear, it looks like it will hit cuba which will stop any development and I don't think it ever developed a LLC. Maybe the next blob will be more exciting.
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1159. Drakoen
Quoting TampaSpin:
I tried telling you all this morning that nothing would happen with this blob..


patience is a virtue.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Yep....that's it.
See you all next year.
Have a nice winter.



lol
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The system appeares to be going through the typical diurnal cycle of oceanic convection which typical for weak systems. As to how the diurnal max will affect it 2mr morning is to be seen. This waning and waxing of the system is benefical for the system by adding moisture to the atmosphere. No sense rushing development, the best thing to do is to monitor the system.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Vortex---

go to your profile on here and upload the image you want as your avatar.. then set that image as your main pic... that's what I did...
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
I tried telling you all this morning that nothing would happen with this blob..
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1154. Drakoen
Quoting WeatherStudent:


R.I.P. Between the Cuban land and the severe vertical wind shear to its immediate north, this critter is so as good as dead, that's for damn sure.


LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Yep....that's it.
See you all next year.
Have a nice winter.
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here what the NHC says at 8:05PM


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN OCCLUDED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
32N53W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N46W TO
27N47W TO 24N49W AND CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 19N56W. FROM 19N56W...THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS TO A SURFACE
TROUGH AND EXTENDS SW TO 16N59W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE SURFACE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO PRESENT TO THE W OF THE COLD AND
STATIONARY FRONTS AND EXTENDS FROM 30N48W TO 27N52W TO 27N58W.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. ALL OF THIS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE NEAR AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 32N52W TO 28N49W TO 26N49W. FARTHER TO THE W...A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
W OF BERMUDA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE
RIDGE...COMBINED WITH ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC.
HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 78W. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SW N
ATLC...AFFECTING LOCATIONS S OF 22N BETWEEN 71W-79W...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND W HISPANIOLA. DURING THE NEXT DAY...MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EITHER EXTRATROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL...
AND MOVING GENERALLY N INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN GALE CONDITIONS
N OF 28N W OF 75W MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACROSS THE E
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT WHERE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IS OCCURRING AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT S OF 11N E OF
58W WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 6N46W AND 5N25W. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGHS AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
AND WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 1N43W.

$$
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Goodevening everyone.......HOw many flip floppers has there been all day.......LOL...i see at least 2 ROFLMAO.....
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1148. eddye
no it wont se fl needs the rain
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hurricane season is a bust
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1146. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting canesrule1:

DEAD!!!
and the season is a bust too right
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Lows moving NW and the convection is being sheared NE.
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I just jumped on the board to get an update and was reading the immature posts from a couple of you. You guys should take your personal hatred off-line and leave the board to weather discussion. You can stay off the board as well.

To the rest of you. Thanks for the valuable updates.
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 1N43W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD INVERTED-V STRUCTURE
IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E OF
THE WAVE S OF 4N.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N17W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 22W EXTENDING TO 2S30W 3S35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 13W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN
21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W GULF THAT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 26N95W TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE
E OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TO N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF N OF 26N
BETWEEN 86W-95W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 91W.
ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE E GULF ARE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 29N E
OF 84W INCLUDING THE W FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. ALL OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO... DURING
THE NEXT DAY...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EITHER
EXTRATROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL...AND MOVING GENERALLY N. THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-79W...INCLUDING
JAMAICA...E CUBA...AND W HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO 16N76W. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO
BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.
DURING THE NEXT DAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE N OF THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 10N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W-69W. ADDITIONALLY...ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER W CUBA...IMPACTING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N85W TO
16N85W. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED W OF BERMUDA
IS MAINTAINING 15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN OCCLUDED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
32N53W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N46W TO
27N47W TO 24N49W AND CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 19N56W. FROM 19N56W...THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS TO A SURFACE
TROUGH AND EXTENDS SW TO 16N59W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE SURFACE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO PRESENT TO THE W OF THE COLD AND
STATIONARY FRONTS AND EXTENDS FROM 30N48W TO 27N52W TO 27N58W.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. ALL OF THIS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE NEAR AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 32N52W TO 28N49W TO 26N49W. FARTHER TO THE W...A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
W OF BERMUDA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE
RIDGE...COMBINED WITH ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC.
HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 78W. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SW N
ATLC...AFFECTING LOCATIONS S OF 22N BETWEEN 71W-79W...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND W HISPANIOLA. DURING THE NEXT DAY...MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EITHER EXTRATROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL...
AND MOVING GENERALLY N INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN GALE CONDITIONS
N OF 28N W OF 75W MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACROSS THE E
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT WHERE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IS OCCURRING AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT S OF 11N E OF
58W WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 6N46W AND 5N25W. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGHS AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
AND WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 1N43W.

$$
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1141. eddye
i see this going to se fl and dumping 10 inches of rain and some severe weather and gust to 60 mph and hail
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


yep! They'll be saying 'TD by 5 PM' tomorrow morning.


Yep this is very true... ;)
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
Quoting keywestbrat:
well looking at the vapor loop, it (the blob) looks like is it going to get sucked ENE or NE at the moment and I can't see it turning back to florida, but weather is nutsLink


I don't know much about this stuff...but It looks like its going east to me too! Darn it. I really wanted the rain.
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1105. Weather456 11:01 PM GMT on May 17, 2009
Accumulated Precipitation to forecast hr 144hrs

Besides FL, the Bahamas and coastal Georgia, South and North Carolina should some precip.


what would purple represent on that graphic? sorry no ledgen listed.
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1132. HCW
It's not an official invest untill it's on this page Link

Have nice day
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The normal poofing for diurnal min and the freaking out that comes with the max... A sure sign that hurricane season is here.. haha!


yep! They'll be saying 'TD by 5 PM' tomorrow morning.
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I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters
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The normal poofing for diurnal min and the freaking out that comes with the max... A sure sign that hurricane season is here.. haha!
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
1126. Drakoen
Quoting kingzfan104:


as what? how strong does it have it getting
\

Don't know yet.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Quoting canesrule1:

Looks very unhealthy, Don't think it will make it to T.D status


You were saying earlier it was going to be a STS. Its called Durinal Cycles, Durnial Maximum occurs at night, and will cause convection to expand and it most likely will look healthy in the morning. We're in Durinal Mimimum, the time were weak systems like this are suppose to look sad and 'poof', we've seen this about err.. well, lost count at Bertha.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The UKMET 18z still takes her towards SFL:
Link


Still don't know exactly where this thing is going. Split between the UKMET and EURO vs. the GFS and NOGAPS


as what? how strong does it have it getting
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I wouldn't write it off just yet, it will blossom again in the morning hours.
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Quoting Weather456:


I'm not concern about it becoming an invest if it does what the models and NHC says it will do. I've seen worst invest.

It had an invest in 2006 that was strangly assigned as it had little convection under 40 knots of shear off the US East Coast but it was taken down less than a day later.


I didn't say it being declared an Invest means anything significant. It really does not mean much other than the fact that it is being monitored.
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i think he should do an update
1119. Drakoen
A more easterly track would lower the systems chances of becoming more of a tropical entity:
Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Quoting auburn:
is it a cat 10 yet?


No. Apparently its going poof. Come back 12 hours from now and you'll see everyone freaking out over it.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
We'll see what happens tonight. Id wait to declare it dead.
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1116. Ossqss
Here is how you WU blogger's forecast stacks up agains the others. WU is an average of the 57 folks who participated as shown in jeffs713's blog. December will hold all truths. L8R



Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1115. Drakoen
The UKMET 18z still takes her towards SFL:
Link


Still don't know exactly where this thing is going. Split between the UKMET and EURO vs. the GFS and NOGAPS
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Quoting Drakoen:


He's still here under the handle WeatherStudent


thanks Drak

what is jfv known to do?

absolutly nothing, that's what makes him so special..lol!!!
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DEAD!!!
1112. auburn (Mod)
is it a cat 10 yet?
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Quoting Vortex95:
and the first poof call of the season!!!


12 hours ago we were talking about the first tropical storm of the season. I've seen this happen a thousand times but it still never ceases to amaze me.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting Walshy:


what is jfv known to do?


Cause many headaches.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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