An early season Atlantic named storm looking less likely

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 15, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

The possibility of a May subtropical storm forming near Florida next week now appear dim, according to the latest suite of runs by the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models. Yesterday's runs indicated that a small area of low shear air might develop over Florida next week, between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south. However, the latest set of runs are showing a much reduced area of low shear, too small for a subtropical storm to form. Perhaps a better chance for a subtropical storm to form is in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as Subtropical Storm Ana. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.


Figure 1. Tracking map for the earliest hurricane to make landfall, the March 1908 hurricane in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

I'll have an update over the weekend if the models indicate a renewed tropical threat; otherwise, have a great weekend, and I'll be back on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1016 - 966

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

1016. Patrap
7:24 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Just drove thru the Hail Shaft of this Boomer...pea sized.



TDWR High Definition Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.20 Degree Elevation Range 48 NMI
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1015. reedzone
7:13 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
The disturbance is organizing well being under 30 knots, I'm kind of impressed.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
1014. IKE
7:12 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1013. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:11 PM GMT on May 16, 2009


clouds are shearing ene with continueing convective dev. cen fix iam using has been moved to 19.3n/78.0w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
1012. cg2916
7:11 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
EMCWF looks kind of agressive.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1011. Cavin Rawlins
7:08 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Be back later. The models and observations have spoken and there seems to the consensus that some type of disturbance will exist GOM next week.

Check my 2009 Hurricane Season Outlook.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1010. cg2916
7:06 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Link to 12Z ECMWF please?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1009. Drakoen
7:05 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
I like that site Adrian, especially the wind field and the rain imagery. You can tell the system is subtropical.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
1008. NorthxCakalaky
7:03 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Given that this front currently runs from Michigan to Western Texas/Mexico Border, it will most certainly impact anything, even marginally, brewing in the GOM and south.
--------------------------------------

Local forecasters here are calling for morning lows in a range from 25-30 in the mountains of NC/VA. For like 3mornings, there goes my crops.
1007. Cavin Rawlins
7:03 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
The 12Z ECMWF appears reasonable, considering the baroclnic enviroment the system is expected to develop.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1006. HurricaneSwirl
7:01 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Coming out of lurking...

My pressure right now is 29.91 inches, yet I'm in
central Georgia. It is rising and we did have a nasty thunderstorm that went on for about an hour tho.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1005. cg2916
7:00 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
Good afternoon everyone, models have become somewhat aggressive with our "possible" Ana. Most of them target the Panhandle of Florida (sorry IKE). NOGAPS takes it more west, heading to Texas if I was reading that correctly. Here's what I think, convection is organizing quite well under 30 knots of shear today, Invest 90L might show up either tonight or tomorrow if organization continues to happen. Nobodies mentioning about our cridder in the Atlantic. I like the spin, it looks like it might be cutting off, but convection is weak. I see a Subtropical Storm developing next week out of our Carribean disturbance. The water depth does matter but guys come on, think about past storms, a pure tropical storm is not out of the question! It's been said that storms have a mind of there own sometimes.

Hmm... why did I just think Katrina... referring to the surprise, not strength.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1004. Drakoen
6:59 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting hurricane23:
Drak thought i'd pass along this newly developed site for florida a friend at FSU put together.Model data from the WRF/GFS/NAM are available. VIEW HEREAlso sst daily output.


Thanks. Looks pretty sweet.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
1003. Cavin Rawlins
6:59 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1002. IKE
6:59 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
That ECMWF has landfall Saturday night.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1001. Drakoen
6:58 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
ECMWF 12z similar to the GFS 12z
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
1000. hurricane23
6:58 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Thought i'd pass along this newly developed site for florida a friend at FSU put together.Model data from the WRF/GFS/NAM are available. VIEW HEREAlso sst daily output.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
999. hurricanemaniac123
6:58 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
That would be odd if TWO storms formed before June 1st.

That might happen lol
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
998. IKE
6:57 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike your buddy ECMWF 12z is up you can do the honors...


I see it...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
997. sporteguy03
6:56 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Ike your buddy ECMWF 12z is up you can do the honors...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
996. kmanislander
6:55 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Owen Roberts, GC (Airport)
Updated: 56 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
84 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 17000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft


That accords with the 1013 pressure reading at my home which is about 1.5 miles S of the airport as the crow flies
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
995. DaytonaBeachWatcher
6:55 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:


why is it pushing it furtehr and furtehr west???


Because the model's been listening to the Village People again.

"Go Wessssst! This is what we're going to do! Go Wessssst...."



i realize this was quite a few posts ago, but i was reading thru the blog and saw this and was LMAO at it.

too funny
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
994. IKE
6:53 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Owen Roberts, GC (Airport)
Updated: 56 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
84 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 17000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
993. CybrTeddy
6:52 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting MrMarcus:


Given that this front currently runs from Michigan to Western Texas/Mexico Border, it will most certainly impact anything, even marginally, brewing in the GOM and south.


And my I ask, why wouldn't the models take it into account?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
992. Drakoen
6:51 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
The CMC is obviously too aggressive forecasting for a deep warm core system. The NAM forecast is a little more sound considering the depth of the 26C in the southern Central GOM. It still may be overdoing it though.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
991. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:50 PM GMT on May 16, 2009


AOI
18.5N/78.7W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
990. Stormchaser2007
6:49 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
I think the GFS and the UKMET provide the best solutions so far. With the system brushing South Florida and then getting into the GOM intensifying a little, then decreasing in intensity as it moves towards the northern coast.


Definitely seems plausible.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
989. reedzone
6:49 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Good afternoon everyone, models have become somewhat aggressive with our "possible" Ana. Most of them target the Panhandle of Florida (sorry IKE). NOGAPS takes it more west, heading to Texas if I was reading that correctly. Here's what I think, convection is organizing quite well under 30 knots of shear today, Invest 90L might show up either tonight or tomorrow if organization continues to happen. Nobodies mentioning about our cridder in the Atlantic. I like the spin, it looks like it might be cutting off, but convection is weak. I see a Subtropical Storm developing next week out of our Carribean disturbance. The water depth does matter but guys come on, think about past storms, a pure tropical storm is not out of the question! It's been said that storms have a mind of there own sometimes.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
988. weatherblog
6:48 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
I think the GFS and the UKMET provide the best solutions so far. With the system brushing South Florida and then getting into the GOM intensifying a little, then decreasing in intensity as it moves towards the northern coast.


Yeah, I could believe that.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
987. MrMarcus
6:47 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Won't be so strong when it comes down to florida. The models are bending it into Florida because of the front last I heard.


Given that this front currently runs from Michigan to Western Texas/Mexico Border, it will most certainly impact anything, even marginally, brewing in the GOM and south.
Member Since: January 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
986. Drakoen
6:46 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
I think the GFS and the UKMET provide the best solutions so far. With the system brushing South Florida and then getting into the GOM intensifying a little, then decreasing in intensity as it moves towards the northern coast.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
985. kmanislander
6:46 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually i think its just east of ya and your pressure should cointinue to fall kman all current activity is se e ne of ya


From looking at the sat images you would think it was a nasty day here but quite the opposite. 85 outside and very sunny.

The barometer is falling slowly but 1013 is still relatively high. This morning lots of dark clouds on the horizon and wind gusts but the rain has passed us by so far.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
984. IKE
6:45 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting MrMarcus:


I'm sure that the models don't even take it into account.



?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
983. CybrTeddy
6:44 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting MrMarcus:


I'm sure that the models don't even take it into account.


Won't be so strong when it comes down to florida. The models are bending it into Florida because of the front last I heard.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
982. IKE
6:44 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Tampa,FL. long-term...

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...MAIN FORECAST VARIABLE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
THE GULF MID-WEEK. SHOULD BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND A SFC TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.
WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT-OFF AND HOW STRONG IT WILL GET
CONTINUES TO VARY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING A FAIRLY
SIMILAR SOLN EXCEPT THE GFS A BIT STRONGER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
ECMWF...AND THE DGEX STILL MORE STRONG AND FURTHER TO THE WEST.
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW VARIES IN LOCATION AND
TIMING...BUT GENERALLY STAYS SW OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE
STATE IN THE DGEX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NE OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOW
PLACEMENT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN E/SE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED INCREASED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN AT GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
981. PensacolaDoug
6:44 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Don't know why he is referring this year to be an El Nino year, anywho, I followed his seasonal forecasts yearly and they never seem to more than 60% correct.


Because its his belief that el nino is comming on.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
980. Patrap
6:44 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
I smell crawfish..

O yeah.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
979. Patrap
6:43 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Anytime DrMickey.
I keep one upstairs and the other downstairs.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
978. MrMarcus
6:43 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting clwstmchasr:
There is a strong cold front (for May) that is going to dive into Central Florida. What impact will this have on any development and/or movement of this potential system?


I'm sure that the models don't even take it into account.
Member Since: January 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
977. weatherblog
6:42 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting hurricane23:
Iam leaning towards something hybird/sub-tropical based on the fact that sst's in the gulf are still rather (shallow) and dont support a cyclone steadily intensifying system as some models are suggesting, also until we have a well established circulation were playing a dart game but based on the UK its something to keep an eye on come early next week.


I agree this is like playing a dart game. Even though I would love for this to hit Florida, where and how strong this will be is totally up to question. The only thing I take out of the models right now is that there might be a subtropical/tropical storm near Cuba or the GOM in the upcoming week (similar to what you think). Since it's also so early in the year, anything that gets in the GOM will surely get pulled north or north east by a trough.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
976. kmanislander
6:42 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
968. IKE 6:39 PM GMT on May 16, 2009

Thanks, only forecasted at this time. Those forecast surface maps drop features as fast as they add them.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
975. SevereHurricane
6:42 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


Don't know why he is referring this year to be an El Nino year, anywho, I followed his seasonal forecasts yearly and they never seem to more than 60% correct.


In School 60% correct is an F lol
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
974. DrMickey
6:42 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Reecom R-1630 Buy It $59
Excellent choice.I have 2.
59$ most places
Quoting Patrap:


Reecom R-1630 Buy It $59
Excellent choice.I have 2.
59$ most places


Patrap,

I was hoping you'd give your opinion as you are such a strong advocate of WX radios.

Thank you!

Michael
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
972. Drakoen
6:41 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Do the models take that into account?


I'm not sure about that. I know they just take in the existing SSTs. Whether or not they consider the depth i'd have to look into. That might take a better resolution model like the HWRF, GFDL, or ECMWF.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
971. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:41 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

Where exactly is the 1010 mb low suppoosed to be. Not South of Cuba I can tell you as pressure here is 1013 mb
actually i think its just east of ya and your pressure should cointinue to fall kman all current activity is se e ne of ya
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
970. Patrap
6:40 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
23,ya good with the #'s..but ya style lacks,er presentation skills.

I wasnt talking or referring to anyone Sport.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
969. hurricane23
6:40 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
It dosent matter what ya call it,what its core is,Blue or Red,..

Its Impact that counts,overall,always.

Like folks focusing on the CAT number when a 20 ft Surge is about to slam them to the next Port of Call.

Impact counts, the specifics dont mean a Rats Buttt.


Pat chill out brother iam about to have lunch with the wife no need for the (rats butt) lol.Its ok i'll start putting up my shutters on monday aftenoon to get ready from the slug of moisture coming up from the caribbean.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
968. IKE
6:39 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

Where exactly is the 1010 mb low suppoosed to be. Not South of Cuba I can tell you as pressure here is 1013 mb


That was a map from the TPC at 48 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
966. Drakoen
6:38 PM GMT on May 16, 2009
Quoting hurricane23:


Near 0 lol.


And shear still looks marginal.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620

Viewing: 1016 - 966

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
41 °F
Overcast