Double trouble: Phillippe and Rita

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:10 PM GMT on September 17, 2005

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We are now in the third week of September, when water temperatures in the Atlantic are at their yearly peak and historically the strongest hurricanes develop. Given that this year's Atlantic water temperatures are the highest on record, we have in place the best fuel source ever seen for making intense hurricanes. Combined with the low levels of wind shear developing and forecast to remain low over the tropical Atlantic, we have a high potential for the formation of major and potentially destructive hurricanes. A newly formed tropical depression approaching the Windward Islands and a developing system north of the Dominican Republic both have the potential to develop into serious hurricanes, and will need to be watched closely this week.

TD 17 (Phillippe?)
TD 17 is here, and will likely be the first major hurricane of September. This storm will be with us for the next two weeks, since it is moving slowly and has a large area of ocean ahead of it. The storm is in a an environment favorable for intensification, and should be Tropical Storm Phillippe Sunday and Hurricane Phillippe by Tuesday. The shear over the storm is 10 knots, and forecast to decrease. The waters beneath it are a warm 30C (86F). Some impressive lowel-level spiral bands have formed. Upper level outflow is good on the southeast and north sides, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead should provide a very favorable ouflow environment for intensification. All indications are that Phillipe will be a hurricane, and probably a major hurricane.

Fortunately, initial computer model forecasts do not show this storm striking any land areas. A large trough in the mid-Atlantic is pulling TD 17 northwest, and the storm should pass east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Tropical storm conditions may affect some of the northernmost islands, though. Once the storm moves north of the islands, long-range computer models indicate the possibility it will continue northwestwards and threaten Bermuda. However, remember how wrong these long-range forecast were for Ophelia, forecasting a landfall in Georgia early on! It is impossible to say where TD 17 may go five days from now.

Blob northeast of the Dominican Republic (Rita?)
A disturbance northeast of Puerto Rico continues to generate some impressive clusters of thunderstorms, and definitely has the look of a system organizing into a tropical depression. A mid and possibly low-level circulation has developed near 22N 69W, about 250 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The main convection is well east of this circulation center, and would have to build over the center before a tropical depression could form. There is about 10 knots of westerly shear over the disturbance, keeping the convection blown over to its east side. This shear is expected to decrease over the next 24 hours, which should allow TD 18 to form later today or tomorrow. The upper-level winds look favorable--an upper-level anticyclone has developed on top, and should provide good outflow for the storm once more deep convection establishes itself. Shear is expected to remain low, water temperatures are very warm--30 to 31C. The chances for this system to become Tropical Storm Rita--and possibly Hurricane Rita--are high.

This system is expected to move west-northwestward through the Bahama Islands and towards South Florida the next few days. Several of the long-range computer models have been consistently forecasting that a strong ridge of high pressure will build across Florida about five days from now, forcing the system on a more westerly or even west-southwesterly path across Cuba towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.


Figure 1. Early track model forecasts for the Puerto Rico blob.

ITCZ
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), remains active. However, the main activity is at about 8N latitude, which is probably too far south to generate a tropical cyclone. If some of this activity works its way to 9N or 10N, we may have a better chance of development. Most of the global computer models indicate that a new tropical storm will form from the ITCZ sometime during the next week.

Ophelia
There is some good news in the tropics today--Ophelia is weakening rapidly, and has given Massachusetts a wide enough berth so that tropical storm conditions will not occur there. Nova Scotia, though, will likely get a direct hit from Ophelia and receive 45 mph winds, 1 - 3 inches of rain, and a 1 - 3 foot storm surge.

Damage estimates from Ophelia's long unwelcome stay over North Carolina are said to be less than $800 million--a remarkably high figure for what was only a tropical storm for all but a two square miles area of the state. Perhaps the category system for ranking hurricanes also needs to take into account how slow a storm moves. What we really need is a separate "storm damage potential" category for hurricanes, as Steve Gregory has championed on his blog.

For those of you who missed by blog last night, there was a scientific first accomplished in Ophelia last night--the first ever remotely-piloted aircraft penetration of a tropical cyclone. A aerosonde flew through Ophelia at 2,500 foot altitude, and measured winds of 74 knots. The project is described in detail on the NOAA Hurricane Research Division's web site. The objective is to use the pilotless aircraft in regions where it is too dangerous for humans to fly:

Simply stated, continuous observation of thermodynamic (temperature and moisture) and kinematic (wind) structure of the near-surface hurricane environment has never been documented in a hurricane. This environment, where the atmosphere meets the sea, is critically important since it is where the ocean's warm water energy is directly transferred to the atmosphere just above it. The tropical cyclone surface layer is also important because it is where we find the strongest winds in a hurricane and coincidentally, the level at which most of us live (i.e. at/near the surface). As such, observing and ultimately better understanding this region of the storm is crucial if we hope to improve our ability to make accurate forecasts of TC intensity change. Enhancing this predictive capability would not only save our economy billions of dollars but more importantly it would save countless lives.

Well done, Aerosonde Corporation and NOAA!

Jeff Masters

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1001. AM91091
3:21 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Jeff has made a new post
1000. aquak9
3:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
new post-some one else can be first!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26263
999. FLPanhandle
3:19 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Makes me wonder if he may not be a muslim extremist gleefully hoping that more hurricanes hit the US.
998. Pensacola22
3:18 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
just jumping in here this morning... Has anyone heard from lefty or stormtop on the status of TD 18 "rita"? Possible landfall cantral Gulf Coast???

Any comments are welcome...

Thanks
997. CoconutCreekFLA
3:18 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
We used to live near a hospital and were on the same grid. It was great b/c the power rarely went out and if it did it was back in no time.
996. Weatherwatcher007
3:17 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
In 18's discussion, the NHC said that it could be reforming to the north and that they had to move the track northward.

Yeah CFLweather, I have always thought that Philippe's turn to the west was possible espically if it continues to move slow. The question is will this happen and if so, how far west will it go and how strong will it become.
995. CoconutCreekFLA
3:16 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Hi Aqua!
994. Flyairbird
3:16 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Same here as far as the outage, 5:30PM on that thursday, and came back up 5 PM on sunday after the storm...Dont tell me, we on the same grid......LOL Im moving to OHIO on 10/15, I guess Im gonna go out with a bang.
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
993. aquak9
3:15 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
morning ya'll....hey CCFLA, I had to go back to read about "playing hurricane"...thanks! too cute!! (even when they're 14, they STILL play like that sometimes!)

re-read all of last night's post...regardless of 88889's situation, some of his posts were unacceptable, and with a twinge of guilt, I spammed quite a few of them.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26263
992. CoconutCreekFLA
3:10 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Billsfan and I were joking about this the other day. Katrina hit way south of us and we both lost power around 5:30 p.m. Their infrastructure stinks.

I hadn't consider the fact that a lot of crews were up north. Good point
991. Flyairbird
3:09 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
You Know CoconutCreek, thats true.....eve if we catch the brush of it, that will be the case Im In Ft. Lauderdale, last time was 3 days...Jeanne was 6...and now with all of the crews up north...We can forget it...Im not worried about storm damage, just no power for an extended period of time
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
990. CFLweather
3:08 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
I know it may not be the immediate threat, but some of the models are pointing out that it may be possible for Phillippe to have a more westerly track in the 4-5 day range. Phillippe is expected to grow not only in intensity before that period, but also in size.
989. 147257
3:08 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
l0l Skyepony fastest Ts i ever seen :P
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
988. CoconutCreekFLA
3:06 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Florida flicker and light... lol
987. Flyairbird
3:02 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
so when this TD 18/ RIta appears close , I know jogs are possible, what are chance thechances that she could jog a touch north to Dade/broward counties...Florida Flicker & light goes out with a sneeze anyways
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
986. amd
3:00 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
yea, i meant td18. My bad.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
985. turtlehurricane
2:57 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
i hav updated my blog
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
984. Weatherwatcher007
2:56 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Does anyone have the discussion for 18 or Philippe yet.
983. Weatherwatcher007
2:53 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Philippe is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph
...11 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and Philippe could become a
hurricane during the next 24 hours.

982. Skyepony (Mod)
2:51 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
According to wunderground Ophelia was real busy lastnight!
Link
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
981. Weatherwatcher007
2:50 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
...DEPRESSION ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
980. FtLaud
2:46 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
673
WTNT23 KNHC 181441
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY
TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.6N 73.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 78.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.8N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$


026
WTNT73 KNHC 181441
SPFAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

23.2N 76.2W 43 X X X 43 COCOA BEACH FL X X 8 4 12
23.7N 78.3W 14 16 1 X 31 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 3 5 8
23.8N 80.8W X 14 11 1 26 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4
MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 4 5 KEY WEST FL X 5 18 2 25
MUCM 214N 779W 8 6 1 X 15 MARCO ISLAND FL X 3 17 3 23
MUCF 221N 805W X 8 8 2 18 FT MYERS FL X 1 16 4 21
MUSN 216N 826W X X 7 7 14 VENICE FL X X 12 7 19
MUHA 230N 824W X 2 13 5 20 TAMPA FL X X 7 8 15
MUAN 219N 850W X X 1 12 13 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 8 10
MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 6 6 ST MARKS FL X X X 7 7
MBJT 215N 712W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 9 9
MYMM 224N 730W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 8 8
MYSM 241N 745W 45 X X X 45 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6
MYEG 235N 758W 47 X X X 47 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5
MYAK 241N 776W 23 11 X X 34 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5
MYNN 251N 775W 10 18 1 X 29 BURAS LA X X X 6 6
MYGF 266N 787W X 13 7 X 20 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 4 4
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL X 11 14 1 26 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 10 11
MIAMI FL X 12 12 1 25 GULF 29N 87W X X X 10 10
W PALM BEACH FL X 7 12 2 21 GULF 28N 89W X X X 9 9
FT PIERCE FL X 2 12 2 16 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


$$


979. CFLweather
2:40 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Looks like the GFDL intensity model may be more correct than originally thought. This is going to continue to get extremely ugly if it makes it into the gulf. Forget about the fact that the SST's are down some since the Katrina time period, the Gulf of Mexico has a reputation for making storms very intense and sometimes unpredictable.
978. Weatherwatcher007
2:40 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
There is dry air to its west but I don't think there will do much to it though. The new advisory should be out any minute.
977. 147257
2:39 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
does someone agree its movings southwest? Link
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
976. AM91091
2:38 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
ya im sure he did
975. Weatherwatcher007
2:37 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Good morning. . .

Philippe looks better and td 18 is expected to become Rita by tonight. I am worried about a westward turn by Philippe towards the southeast coast. I have also been watching the cape verde wave. Tropics are really active now.

amd. . . did you mean td 18?
974. SWLAStormFanatic
2:34 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
...257 That could be interesting!
973. SWLAStormFanatic
2:33 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
I agree...there are no inhibiting factors present to keep TD 18 from rapid intensification.
972. 147257
2:31 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
loks like philipe is moving west
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
971. amd
2:30 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
steve lyons was worried about rapid intensification with td19, and it's not like him to hype up 30 mph tropical depressions. If more convection becomes co-correlated with the developing center, then rapid intensification could begin in earnest.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
970. SWLAStormFanatic
2:25 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
When can we expect another update from Dr Masters?
969. southbeachdude
2:18 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
good point hyfynn....we live in SE FL and kept hearing that Katrina was going to make initial landfall way north of here. I am thankful to people on this message board for reminding me the models and local networks are not always right. I went out and prepared two full days before the hype. We did not put our shutters up though because it was only supposed to be a tropical storm. Trust me, I will never make that mistake again. As soon as a hurriane warning is posted, I will prepare the house.
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 697
968. turtlehurricane
2:16 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
i hav updated my blog
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
967. SWLAStormFanatic
2:10 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
THen what after Omega? lol
966. AM91091
2:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
we go w/ the Greek alphabet if we run out of names. (Alpha,Beta,Gamma)
965. hmfynn
2:02 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
And as Stormtop said, we need to all be preparing for a hit anyone because for this particular storm we're in a Catch-22.

For Rita to miss the US, the Trof has to be weak.
Which means Philippe/Phillipe comes our way.

But I gotta stress, that's only how it looks today.
Ophelia was supposed to be looping into the Gulf at this time, and Katrina was supposed to be riding up central Florida into Georgia. Anything can happen. Don't be like me and not prepare until a day before the thing hits (Katrina) thanks to a surprise shift.
964. SWLAStormFanatic
2:01 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Yeh, Surfer Boy Steve Lyons just made comment on the impressive vis sat image. I think it's safe to say we'll have TS Rita within the hour. I don't think we'll be singing "Lovely Rita" when she's done...especially here in SWLA.
963. rbeane1956
1:59 PM GMT on September 18, 2005

Just a stupid question. What happens if we run out of
alphabet? Do they go next years list?

i watch the GOM storms close as My Mother in law lives on
the Florida Panhandle and I invest in energy stocks.
962. 147257
1:55 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
i agree with that
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
961. hmfynn
1:54 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
southernskiesrnice,
We're in the same boat. I'm relatively new here and the models are confusing (especially that java site...) What I've gathered from using the site for a few weeks is at this point almost all the computer models are highly unreliable, as they shift dramatically from run to run. The GDFL, which everyone seems to put the most stock in, has been shifting from Mexico to Texas to Louisiana and back to Texas and then closer to Louisiana and so forth for the last 24 hours. Judging from the laughing response I got yesterday upon its mention, you can probably disregard the LBAR. The BAMM's been the most consistent over the last day, but it only works well for certain types of storms. During Katrina and Ophelia I remember people saying "the Bamm doesn't perform well for this type of storm". Don't have any idea if it performs well for Rita's type.

Bottom line, I think Katrina and Ophelia taught us not to put too much stock in the specifics of the models. They're analogous to guessing at this point, but if even one of them is pointed at you or near you, then start preparing as if they all were.

Perhaps when Lefty or Stormtop comes back he can explain which models are good for what.
960. AM91091
1:52 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
i think there's a good chance we'll be using the greek alphabet for names this year.
959. 147257
1:49 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
great again 3 storms
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
958. tornadoty
1:26 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
There is now Invest 97 SW of the Cape Verdes. It number is T1.0, but the NHC is calling for possible intensification. Can we all say hello Stan? Also, TD 18 has a classic appearance of a tropical storm, and I expect the next recon flight to find TS Rita.
957. IceSlater
1:21 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
looks like long range compuet progs put RITA as a cat 3/4 hiting central texas coast line south of houston next friday....
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
956. IceSlater
1:13 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
feel sorry for people who are in texas ....they fled new orleans...lok who will be knocking on there door next week..
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
955. matilda101
1:13 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Hi all,
I was surprised to see TD 18 named last night by NHC at 11:00 PM By the looks of the satelite it looked no more than a blob of clouds with a hints of lower level cirrulation. In contrast it took the NHC 1-2 days to classify TD 17. The point is that because of the closeness of the disturbance to the US I'm sure they had enough confidence in the models to upgrade it and to get the word out to Bahamas, South Florida, and Cuba ASAP. The local newscasts were not very serious of the disturbance at 6:00 PM and the NWS put out a special statement at 6:30 for it. I the goverment wants everybody to prepare as early as possible for a possible hurricane, since the Kritina disaster at end of August.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
954. southernskiesrnice
1:11 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
woefully anticipating Rita to come near SWLA? I am new to all this, but I have learned a lot tracking storms the past few years. I lived through Andrew and Katrina (in Baton Rouge) and I don't know what SWLA will do if it is affected either directly or indirectly again. Which tracks are more reliable? The BAMM or GFS or GFDL? I know its too early to tell, but this high over texas will push down and turn the storm northward? I just read the discussion at nhs and it shows more of a westward movement throughout the storm... But the strike probs look like they r heading straight for LA. I remember the past few hurricanes that hit this area were usually turned north when they got around/near 90/25. Am I way off in thinking that? Thanks and I hope I can grow to understand more how climatology and how they predict where these storms are going...
953. IceSlater
1:08 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
just got finished with my ins co and the trash has been cleaned up still have to put on new roof...cant find any roofers...and here comes rita same way katrina did...
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
952. mybahamas
12:56 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
Amazingly, the local hardware stores are still not open here in NAssau :(
THey are allowed (and expected) to be closed on Sundays.
951. flacanefan
12:55 PM GMT on September 18, 2005
white - in Port St. Lucie - FLA

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.