An early start to hurricane season? And, tornado kills 3 in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 14, 2009

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The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season may get off to an early start. For the past two days, most of our reliable hurricane forecast models have been predicting the possibility of a subtropical depression forming near Florida or Western Cuba Monday - Thursday next week. An area of disturbed weather associated with a mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahama Islands is predicted to slide west-northwest over the next few days. Wind shear over this low, current a prohibitively high 40 knots, is expected to relax to just 10 knots by Monday in the region surrounding Florida. This may allow a disturbance with a surface warm core to develop, according to phase space analyses from Florida State. However, since the upper atmosphere will still be cold, any development of this system will likely be subtropical in nature. If a subtropical storm does form, it may be fairly dry, like Subtropical Storm Andrea of May 2007. This storm ended up fanning fires in Florida, instead of putting them out. Water vapor loops show plenty of dry, continental air in the region, and it will take many days for the atmosphere to moisten enough to support formation of a subtropical depression.


Figure 1. Water vapor image showing moisture from a weak mid- to upper-level low of low pressure over the southeastern Bahama Islands, surrounded by a large area of dry air, and sandwiched between the polar and subtropical jet stream. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

The GFS and NOGAPS models predict a subtropical depression could form by Tuesday, while the ECMWF shows development later in the week. The latest UKMET model forecast puts development Wednesday or Thursday near Haiti. The area of predicted development is sandwiched in a relatively narrow band of low wind shear between two branches of the jet stream. This is not a typical set-up for formation of a May tropical cyclone. With so much shear and dry air around, I put the probability of a subtropical depression forming next week at about 10%. Any developing system will also have to contend with the arrival Tuesday of a strong upper-level low pressure system that is expected to drop down over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The eventual track of any depression that forms is highly uncertain, and the models support tracks up the U.S. East Coast towards South Carolina, or up the west coast of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico.

Season's first tropical wave arrives
The season's first tropical wave rolled off the coast of Africa yesterday, and is now located near 10N 20W, a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa, according to total precipitable water loops. Mid-May is a fairly typical time for these waves to begin moving across the Atlantic, though they usually don't start developing into tropical depressions until August. Last year was an exception, when Hurricane Bertha formed from a July tropical wave. Wunderground blogger Weather456 has been tracking the date of the first African wave each year since 2004, and these dates have ranged from May 2 to May 21. With Sea Surface Temperatures near average this year in the tropical Atlantic, an early season major hurricane in the eastern Atlantic like Bertha is unlikely.


Figure 2. The line of severe thunderstorms that spawned the Kirksville, MO tornado.

A wild night in Tornado Alley
Northern Missouri took a hard hit by a powerful tornado last night, when a twister passed through Kirksville, killing three people. The tornado flipped cars and damaged 30 - 40 buildings as it tore through the north end of town. The Storm Prediction Center recorded 23 tornado reports across Missouri, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Kansas yesterday.

The Vortex2 field study, the world's largest-ever tornado research project, caught last night's tornado outbreak with its armada of 40 research vehicles and radars. You can read about yesterday's chase on our new featured Vortex2 blog. Our team of University of Michigan students caught some severe thunderstorms, but were forced by darkness to quit before the storms spawned tornadoes.

Portlight/wunderground shirts for sale
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is selling spiffy new shirts sporting the portlight and wunderground logos, to help raise funds for relief operations during the coming hurricane season. I expect that their services will be needed this year, and I encourage you to shell out the $20 to get this fine piece or wunderwear.

I'll have an update on the tropics Friday.
Jeff Masters

V2 Convoy in Canton 2 (Vortex2)
Most of the V2 convoy waited in Canton, OK for initiation.
V2 Convoy in Canton 2

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1004. Keys99
10:12 AM GMT on October 26, 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
IN...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITY OF KEY WEST...

* UNTIL 715 AM EDT

* AT 510 AM EDT LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A PERSISTENT LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO THE LOWER KEYS...ACROSS KEY
WEST...INTO THE GULF WATERS.

RADAR ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL SHOW AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN A NARROW STRETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS...ACROSS KEY WEST...AND
FURTHER INTO THE GULF WATERS. THE SENSOR AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT HAS IN EXCESS OF 2.4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE...ACCUMULATION IS IN EXCESS
OF 2.1.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
1003. ddbweatherking
2:58 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You can use 2009 Tropical Cyclone Landfall Probabilities co-developed by William Gray's Tropical Meterology Research Project. Also Tropical Cyclone Return Periods from the NHC.

Thanks nrtiwlnvragn, those sites helped me find out those probabilities, those probabilities seem a little low though. Oh well, i can't complain with the experts.
Member Since: May 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
1002. jeffs713
2:54 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Taz,
The feature way out in CATL is a ULL.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
1001. IKE
2:50 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1000. NEwxguy
2:49 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
This is a drinking croud.....Already had 29 views in the Forum......Heck i don't get that response in a good Tropical Update.....Need to change my Speciality.......LOL


Hey Tim,of course your going to get a great response,probably the most popular pasttime around the world
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
999. weathermanwannabe
2:48 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Good Morning......So, at present, and reguardless of whether a storm will generate or not (depending on which models you follow and whether they will untimately be accurate 2-3 days out), looks like Florida will continue to get some rain (combination of the "early" summer pattern from pop-up showers and any potential tropical or sub-tropical development)...Guess I'll be mowing the lawn this weekend and next........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
998. TampaSpin
2:47 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
newxguy just posted a great California Root Beer

I gotta try that one..
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
997. apocalyps
2:46 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
I told you all we would have a hurricane in mai.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
996. Tazmanian
2:41 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
could this be come a STS what this that way out there??

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
995. eye2theskies
2:41 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
This is a drinking croud.....Already had 29 views in the Forum......Heck i don't get that response in a good Tropical Update.....Need to change my Speciality.......LOL


Drinking and a good storm go together methinks... You'll just have to multi-task Tampa!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
994. nrtiwlnvragn
2:40 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting ddbweatherking:
Does anyone know the probability of a Hurricane (any category) hitting let's say in between Virginia and New Jersey? If you know of a website with that information, could you send me the link?
Thanks!!!


You can use 2009 Tropical Cyclone Landfall Probabilities co-developed by William Gray's Tropical Meterology Research Project. Also Tropical Cyclone Return Periods from the NHC.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
993. ddbweatherking
2:38 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't know exact probabilities, but I know it can vary from year to year, based on the setup of the A/B High in the Atlantic. Generally, it isn't a huge probability due to the topography of the coast and how far north it is. Over the past 4-5 years, I don't recall any hurricanes making landfall that far north. I will check a couple of my links at home, for reference. (on my lunch break in a few hours)


Thanks, i'm asking this because i am moving to Bethesda, MD in about a month and a half and i wanted to know my chances of excitement. But usually every few years a tropical storm hits that area right?
Member Since: May 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
992. jeffs713
2:33 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting ddbweatherking:
Does anyone know the probability of a Hurricane (any category) hitting let's say in between Virginia and New Jersey? If you know of a website with that information, could you send me the link?
Thanks!!!

I don't know exact probabilities, but I know it can vary from year to year, based on the setup of the A/B High in the Atlantic. Generally, it isn't a huge probability due to the topography of the coast and how far north it is. Over the past 4-5 years, I don't recall any hurricanes making landfall that far north. I will check a couple of my links at home, for reference. (on my lunch break in a few hours)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
991. palmbaywhoo
2:27 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
palm bay still hasnt gotten any real rainfall and we can def use it
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
990. TampaSpin
2:26 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
This is a drinking croud.....Already had 29 views in the Forum......Heck i don't get that response in a good Tropical Update.....Need to change my Speciality.......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
989. eye2theskies
2:25 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


You forgot Flame thrower... and Deflector Shields.. and make sure the soap box can still hold the weight.


Damn... thanks Orca, almost forgot those! Gotta add in bandwagons and padding for jumping on and off too...
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
988. ddbweatherking
2:25 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Does anyone know the probability of a Hurricane (any category) hitting let's say in between Virginia and New Jersey? If you know of a website with that information, could you send me the link?
Thanks!!!
Member Since: May 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
987. Drakoen
2:24 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY/UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER CUBA ON MONDAY...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS GULF SYSTEM...AND A DAY LATER
WITH ITS LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OVER ITS
PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE GULF
SYSTEM...AND HAS ALSO DELAYED ITS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BY 12-24
HOURS OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAD TRENDED EASTWARD
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...BUT ON ITS
00Z RUN SHOWS A MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY MONDAY...SIMILAR TO THE 00Z UKMET...AT A SLOWER PACE
THAN THE 00Z GFS/NAM. WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORMING UPPER LOW ACROSS CUBA /WITH THE 00Z GFS
CANADIAN AND UKMET WEAKER/...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE DISAGREES WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE NAM
SHOWING THE LOWEST HEIGHTS AND THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST SURFACE LOW
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS/GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM NORMALLY SHOWS A
BIAS OF BEING TOO LOW WITH HEIGHTS NEAR SHORTWAVES THIS FAR INTO
THE FUTURE...AND BOTH THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS
LOW DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. AS THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z
UKMET ARE BEGINNING TO SUPPORT THE 00Z GFS...WILL SUPPORT A
COMPROMISE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS QUICK BIAS.
THIS PREFERENCE ALSO WORKS OUT WELL WITH THE NEARLY CLOSED CYCLONE
NEAR CUBA EARLY MONDAY.

Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
986. FLWeatherFreak91
2:19 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
No matter what happens with this storm the models are predicting, central and south florida, if not the panhandle as well, will receive a lot of needed rainfall. UNLESS the system develops and moves to the East of Florida which would only limit the rain chances.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
985. Rlennon
2:18 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Thanks for the answer charlottefl
984. Orcasystems
2:18 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting eye2theskies:
Good morning all...

Supplies for the coming Hurricane season:
Troll juice... check
Sarcasm detector... activated

Over 3 inches of rain here in two days; my lawn is probably going to go nuts this next week.


You forgot Flame thrower... and Deflector Shields.. and make sure the soap box can still hold the weight.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
983. Swells22
2:18 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
mention of the trops firing up already?

Troll protector and cloaking device enabled!
982. Rlennon
2:15 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Supplies for the coming Hurricane season:
Troll juice... check
Sarcasm detector... activated


That is awesomw...lol
981. eye2theskies
2:12 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Good morning all...

Supplies for the coming Hurricane season:
Troll juice... check
Sarcasm detector... activated

Over 3 inches of rain here in two days; my lawn is probably going to go nuts this next week.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
980. stillwaiting
2:09 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
webcam running for todays rounds of storms charlotte????
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
979. charlottefl
2:07 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
It really all depends on the timing of the systems that produce these storms. Just so happens this year all of the right ingredients are coming together at night. That's all.

Quoting Rlennon:
Hello all, It looks like it about that time of year ago.I hope it is a busy tropical year but all fish storms. I have a question, there seem to be a lot of tornadoes in the nighttime around tornado alley. Is this the norm or just because the last few where at night it seem like the are more at night?

Thanks Richard
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
978. Rlennon
2:02 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Hello all, It looks like it about that time of year ago.I hope it is a busy tropical year but all fish storms. I have a question, there seem to be a lot of tornadoes in the nighttime around tornado alley. Is this the norm or just because the last few where at night it seem like the are more at night?

Thanks Richard
977. melwerle
2:02 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Getting plenty of rain here from that storm off our coast...sure seems to be hanging around a while. No complaints though - we need the rain desperately and my lawn is LOVING it.

GOOD MORNING!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
976. stillwaiting
1:59 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
there will be a broad area of low pressure at the surface in the southeastern GOM w/multiple vorticies and not a defined well organized warm core.....eventually if the area sits over the warmer waters of the easterm gom,a TC could form,but the waters just don't have the heat content to support any rapid development and sheer is only marginal,which is climatalogically about average for this time of year in our region,IMO....there we'll be plenty of rain in fL as a ULL forms along the trough,gets cut off and strengthens somewhere in the southeastern GOM..how long it sits,where it forms and sheer will determine if this area forms into a TD or TS,right now a STS at best is my opinion,thanks for reading!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
975. Tazmanian
1:58 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
974. beell
1:57 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
If you don't think the cut-off upper low over the NE GOM will not have a surface reflection then...well...

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
973. Tazmanian
1:56 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.



SEVERAL CYCLONIC CURLS ARE NOTED IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR
THE EPAC ITCZ...THE MOST NOTABLE ARE TWO AREAS OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL TURNING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 110W. THIS GFS MODEL
IS FORECASTING THE WRN MOST AREA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO ACTIVE AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...THIS AREA
SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
972. Ossqss
1:54 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
BTW, we have 50+ entries in the prognostication contest and it closes tonight. If you want in just click my handle and it will take you there.

I hope to have the data compiled tomorrow and in your hands jeffs713 and thanks for your help. A new blog with the summary of all picks will be up this weekend.

Off to the salt mines for the rest of the day. L8R
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
971. DaytonaBeachWatcher
1:52 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
What we saw yesturday on the sat. isnt what the gfs is picking up and bringing into ecfl in 168 hours
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
970. jeffs713
1:48 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting Ossqss:


Not me, I don't believe anything until I see the spinning tops of the clouds on the SAT :)

It just stood out when I peeded at the loop, its there and gone instantly.

Probably a set of storms that popped up as part of the frontal boundry that is across TX and the SE.

Oh... good morning everyone!
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
969. Ossqss
1:44 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting jeffs713:
Oss, 5 bucks says that "feature" in the gulf is another GFS ghost storm. The GFS has proven to be at least average at modeling once a storm is initialized... but I think most of us would do better with a dart board as far as cyclogenesis goes.


Not me, I don't believe anything until I see the spinning tops of the clouds on the SAT :)

It just stood out when I peeked at the loop, its there and gone instantly.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
968. Drakoen
1:42 PM GMT on May 15, 2009

Quoting jeffs713:
Oss, 5 bucks says that "feature" in the gulf is another GFS ghost storm. The GFS has proven to be at least average at modeling once a storm is initialized... but I think most of us would do better with a dart board as far as cyclogenesis goes.


Other reliable models are forecasting for some development. The two most reliable the GFS and ECMWF.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
967. nrtiwlnvragn
1:40 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF MAY 18-23 OR MAY 25-28 OF 1991...WHEN A PAIR OF UPPER CYCLONES CLOSED OFF ONE AFTER THE OTHER...AND A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH DEVELOPED A MORE DEFINED CENTER AS IT MOVED INTO THE ALABAMA COAST. IT IS BOUND TO BE A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE...AND ALONG WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT RANGE...SHOULD BREAK FLORIDA OUT OF THE DRY SEASON A COUPLE WEEKS EARLIER THAN NORMAL.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
966. jeffs713
1:39 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Oss, 5 bucks says that "feature" in the gulf is another GFS ghost storm. Also, note how this feature looks to be just rain, there isn't an apparent pressure drop attached to it. (all that rain is around 1012mb) The GFS has proven to be at least average at modeling once a storm is initialized... but I think most of us would do better with a dart board as far as cyclogenesis goes.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
965. IKE
1:39 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting foggymyst:
Thanks Ike, not really looking for tropical and not to concerned if it is, at least for So.Fla. Thereafter into the GOM is a deeper mystery.


True.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
964. foggymyst
1:38 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Thanks Ike, not really looking for tropical and not to concerned if it is, at least for So.Fla. Thereafter into the GOM is a deeper mystery.
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
963. TampaSpin
1:36 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
For the fun and enjoyment of others i have posted a forum of mixed drinks for others to post there favorites also! Drink responsibly!

Mixed Drink Forum Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
962. Cavin Rawlins
1:36 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
My 2009 hurricane season outlook 2mor morning.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast for May is coming out today.

Check out tropical update at my blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
961. IKE
1:34 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting foggymyst:
Ike, so in looking at that GFS 6 days from now, the system, wave..cloud..seems to slow down or even stall? Could be good from the drough in Florida. Much rain over a period of time vs. a quick hot rainstorm.


The immediate hope for Florida is afternoon thunderstorms and the trough coming in early next week.

As far as anything topical, too early to determine if anything ever will develop and where it will go, if it does....just my opinion....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
960. fireflymom
1:31 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
I have a great deal of respect for you Storm-Now some one encourage that rain to come a little closer to my house, please. West and central Texas are still in drought conditions and we haven't had any rain where I live since the flooding ones a few weeks back. It is getting a bit too dry again.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
959. foggymyst
1:29 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Ike, so in looking at that GFS 6 days from now, the system, wave..cloud..seems to slow down or even stall? Could be good from the drough in Florida. Much rain over a period of time vs. a quick hot rainstorm.
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
958. Ossqss
1:25 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
The way out at 336, fills the gulf with color.

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
957. scottsvb
1:22 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
You guys dont understand early (tropics) model runs in a season. They are not consistant and usually bullish on anything tropical developing. Also posting where something might form in the tropics over 3 days from now is no good. Models usually want to find something..form it..and push it north in May...but nothing happens..
I would wait for a area of intrest within 2 days with models support in that area from the GFS,Ukmet and Euro.. right now the low everyone is trying to find with the models isnt set in stone and the models will keep delaying the formation till nothing happens.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
956. floridastorm
1:17 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
is the threat for a subtropical storm over?
Member Since: May 20, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 148
955. IKE
1:13 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
06z GFS Ensembles


And that shows next Thursday...6 days from now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
954. Drakoen
1:12 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
06z GFS Ensembles
EURO 00z
CMC SFL to Big bend

I would take a blend between the GFS Ensembles and the Euro for now as they haven't had drastic changes in their solutions.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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