An early start to hurricane season? And, tornado kills 3 in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 14, 2009

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The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season may get off to an early start. For the past two days, most of our reliable hurricane forecast models have been predicting the possibility of a subtropical depression forming near Florida or Western Cuba Monday - Thursday next week. An area of disturbed weather associated with a mid- to upper-level trough of low pressure near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahama Islands is predicted to slide west-northwest over the next few days. Wind shear over this low, current a prohibitively high 40 knots, is expected to relax to just 10 knots by Monday in the region surrounding Florida. This may allow a disturbance with a surface warm core to develop, according to phase space analyses from Florida State. However, since the upper atmosphere will still be cold, any development of this system will likely be subtropical in nature. If a subtropical storm does form, it may be fairly dry, like Subtropical Storm Andrea of May 2007. This storm ended up fanning fires in Florida, instead of putting them out. Water vapor loops show plenty of dry, continental air in the region, and it will take many days for the atmosphere to moisten enough to support formation of a subtropical depression.


Figure 1. Water vapor image showing moisture from a weak mid- to upper-level low of low pressure over the southeastern Bahama Islands, surrounded by a large area of dry air, and sandwiched between the polar and subtropical jet stream. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

The GFS and NOGAPS models predict a subtropical depression could form by Tuesday, while the ECMWF shows development later in the week. The latest UKMET model forecast puts development Wednesday or Thursday near Haiti. The area of predicted development is sandwiched in a relatively narrow band of low wind shear between two branches of the jet stream. This is not a typical set-up for formation of a May tropical cyclone. With so much shear and dry air around, I put the probability of a subtropical depression forming next week at about 10%. Any developing system will also have to contend with the arrival Tuesday of a strong upper-level low pressure system that is expected to drop down over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The eventual track of any depression that forms is highly uncertain, and the models support tracks up the U.S. East Coast towards South Carolina, or up the west coast of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico.

Season's first tropical wave arrives
The season's first tropical wave rolled off the coast of Africa yesterday, and is now located near 10N 20W, a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa, according to total precipitable water loops. Mid-May is a fairly typical time for these waves to begin moving across the Atlantic, though they usually don't start developing into tropical depressions until August. Last year was an exception, when Hurricane Bertha formed from a July tropical wave. Wunderground blogger Weather456 has been tracking the date of the first African wave each year since 2004, and these dates have ranged from May 2 to May 21. With Sea Surface Temperatures near average this year in the tropical Atlantic, an early season major hurricane in the eastern Atlantic like Bertha is unlikely.


Figure 2. The line of severe thunderstorms that spawned the Kirksville, MO tornado.

A wild night in Tornado Alley
Northern Missouri took a hard hit by a powerful tornado last night, when a twister passed through Kirksville, killing three people. The tornado flipped cars and damaged 30 - 40 buildings as it tore through the north end of town. The Storm Prediction Center recorded 23 tornado reports across Missouri, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Kansas yesterday.

The Vortex2 field study, the world's largest-ever tornado research project, caught last night's tornado outbreak with its armada of 40 research vehicles and radars. You can read about yesterday's chase on our new featured Vortex2 blog. Our team of University of Michigan students caught some severe thunderstorms, but were forced by darkness to quit before the storms spawned tornadoes.

Portlight/wunderground shirts for sale
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is selling spiffy new shirts sporting the portlight and wunderground logos, to help raise funds for relief operations during the coming hurricane season. I expect that their services will be needed this year, and I encourage you to shell out the $20 to get this fine piece or wunderwear.

I'll have an update on the tropics Friday.
Jeff Masters

V2 Convoy in Canton 2 (Vortex2)
Most of the V2 convoy waited in Canton, OK for initiation.
V2 Convoy in Canton 2

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Quoting CycloneOz:
Lying is fundamental to shame-based behavior...


Hey Oz, TWC got their HD cameras. Competition is at hand, I think you can take Cantore. Make it so.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8192
Nam 00Z is running
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting CaneWarning:
I just had an email from WS - he is NOT JFV. I am almost certain.


And you believe that?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31637
Quoting Drakoen:


I have been on here for 3 years. That never works.
Been here for five and I've learned to enjoy the drama :D
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I just had an email from WS - he is NOT JFV. I am almost certain.
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Quoting FloridaScuba:
since possible "storm season" may have potentially started already.. preseason advice (for the 3rd year now)... if you don't like someone, there is an ignore option

this year.. let's like and help each other. NO fighting. just ignore what you don't like or want.



I have been on here for 3 years. That never works. There's always going to be an issue.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31637
Quoting Ossqss:


Your difference is population degradation with Brighthouse vs distance to hub degradation with DSL type connections.

My Brighthouse connection runs at 3200 KB, thats bytes not bits.


I have no clue what you just said!
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Lying is fundamental to shame-based behavior...


What do you mean?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Yeah, if you have Brighthouse dump them!


Your difference is population degradation with Brighthouse vs distance to hub degradation with DSL type connections.

My Brighthouse connection runs at 3200 KB, thats bytes not bits.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8192
since possible "storm season" may have potentially started already.. preseason advice (for the 3rd year now)... if you don't like someone, there is an ignore option

this year.. let's like and help each other. NO fighting. just ignore what you don't like or want.

Quoting CaneAddict:


Can you just please admit that you are JFV...We ALL know you are. It's very obvious..

Thanks.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


sorry for being grammaticalli iliterate, no i've always written this way
my first poof of the season!
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Quoting CaneAddict:


Are you now purposely spelling incorrectly to not resemble JFV?


You have Mail CaneAddict...
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
OK. Research halted abruptly.

Link
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Quoting CaneAddict:


LOL..What's your fix?


Looking through various archives from Wunderground, Wikipedia, and CIMSS. What I really like is the Plymouth state satellite archives. They go from current time all the way back to 1997. Ill give you the link tomorrow. Its on my work computer.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15971
Funny, we have had Brighthouse for years and no problems and customer service here is GREAT. Happy for us! :)
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what will wind shear be like for the gulf??
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Quoting IKE:


I have brighthouse. Hardly ever had a problem with it.


I didn't have a problem with them either until my internet service went down because their modem had a problem. They told me someone would be out to fix it in about 3 weeks. I said forget it!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL Ive heard of many ways to get a Hurricane fix, but Ive never heard of that before.


LOL..What's your fix?
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Quoting Littleninjagrl:
FIOS is the shiznit! I love it. Had road runnner before. UGH! Bright hosue sucks! had them before fios. My plasma TV looks like we are right there in the movie. Especially on the HD channels.


Yeah, if you have Brighthouse dump them!
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Quoting CaneAddict:


Yeah..something to track would be nice..especially if it's going to help us. I've been looking at the dryer upside down to give me my hurricane fix for the past few days LOL.


LOL Ive heard of many ways to get a Hurricane fix, but Ive never heard of that before.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15971
Ike- i'm glad you haven't had any problems. I just hate them and the customer service is horrible. They would change my darn bill every month and I would have to call them every month so I could get credited all of thier mistakes. Sorry i'm just not a fan.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


het ts


Are you now purposely spelling incorrectly to not resemble JFV?
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Interesting. Could it be electon flux?

Link

Link
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578. IKE
Quoting Littleninjagrl:
FIOS is the shiznit! I love it. Had road runnner before. UGH! Bright hosue sucks! had them before fios. My plasma TV looks like we are right there in the movie. Especially on the HD channels.


I have brighthouse. Hardly ever had a problem with it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wow thats great to hear! Here in WPB we had a few showers over the past couple of days. Hopefully that non/sub tropical low can end most of the drought for Florida.


Yeah..something to track would be nice..especially if it's going to help us. I've been looking at the dryer upside down to give me my hurricane fix for the past few days LOL.
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Loving my forecast for next week.

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15971
575. IKE
Nevermind 456...I get ya now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
FIOS is the shiznit! I love it. Had road runnner before. UGH! Bright hosue sucks! had them before fios. My plasma TV looks like we are right there in the movie. Especially on the HD channels.
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Blog Refresh
Mirror Site


Daily Area of Interest

Daily Area of Interest #2

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564.

Were waiting to see for now. :p
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Quoting CaneAddict:


Here in Saint Petersburg, Florida...We got one hell of a soaking for a good hour..POURING rain..now it's light rain..but the ground got more than it could take in :) it's great to finally get some rain.


Wow thats great to hear! Here in WPB we had a few showers over the past couple of days. Hopefully that non/sub tropical low can end most of the drought for Florida.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15971
Hello everyone.
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The 00Z BEM - Blog Ensemble Model show the system moving over Florida and into the Gulf, hitting New Orleans. :)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
WRF shows some Thundershowers for tomorrow. Hopefully these dont have too much lightning.


Here in Saint Petersburg, Florida...We got one hell of a soaking for a good hour..POURING rain..now it's light rain..but the ground got more than it could take in :) it's great to finally get some rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would offer this to you that wish to tweek you connection. Use a site like this and find out what your settings should be for your connection. It will tell you exactly what your settings should be for you connection speed and type. Connection type is important to get good info from any test site.

You can find up to a 40% improvement in speed with just the appropriate RWIN or MTU settings.

Don't mess with any others unless you know what you are doing.

Ensure you check the drop down device item to make sure you are applying the settings to the right connection if you have more than one. IE, wireless / ethernet.

It works :)

Note: Alterations of you connection setting will require you to download DRTCP for easy corrective alterations. It is safe.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8192
Good Evening,

547 Posts in 12 Hours and we are just warming up! LOL

This will be a fun ride.

What's new? looks like Ana still in the near future.

Here in PR still raining from the begining of May...
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WRF shows some Thundershowers for tomorrow. Hopefully these dont have too much lightning.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15971
Night all - been a long day.
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Link

I only found out about this today, would really like to attend one of these.
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Quoting Littleninjagrl:
Ok...as to not clog the blog (hey that rhymed)

To all my female friends....HELLO! Long Island Iced Tea's are on me!

To all my male friends....Hello! Beer is in the fridge...go grab one.


I'd rather have a Long Island Iced Tea!!!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah but isnt the max a personal computer can be? Ive never heard of a speed like that.


I have no clue. I did a second and third test and got about the same result.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok...as to not clog the blog (hey that rhymed)

To all my female friends....HELLO! Long Island Iced Tea's are on me!

To all my male friends....Hello! Beer is in the fridge...go grab one.
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Hi Aqua - glad to see your here too!
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The system that the models may be suggesting forming do not look like they will bring us any needed rain.

The governor declared a state of emergency today, in order to help with the fires. Listening to the way the ones in Dade and Broward started, I would agree that the winds without any rain will cause a lot of trouble.

One fire started from a train spark, one from the heat on the insulation from an electrical connection.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I don't know,the link 456 just posted shows you can be up to 30,000 kps.


Yeah but isnt the max a personal computer can be? Ive never heard of a speed like that.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15971
hey zoo, hey little ninja...I live here, hahaha. Just so ya know ya'll ain't alone.

Now back to Tech Talk With the Men.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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