Vortex2: world's largest tornado research project ever, is underway
Tornado season is in full swing, and researchers are now poised in America's Great Plains with the largest armada of storm chasing vehicles and equipment ever assembled, in order to learn more about these enigmatic and violent storms. The massive Vortex2 field study began Sunday, and for the next seven weeks over 100 scientists in up to 40 science and support vehicles will be roaming through Tornado Alley, seeking to catch tornadoes on the rampage. The three basic questions the $10 million study will attempt to answer are:
- How, when, and why do tornadoes form? Why some are violent and long lasting while others are weak and short lived?
- What is the structure of tornadoes? How strong are the winds near the ground? How exactly do they do damage?
- How can we learn to forecast tornadoes better? Current warnings have an only 13 minute average lead time and a 70% false alarm rate. Can we make warnings more accurate? Can we warn 30, 45, 60 minutes ahead?'
Figure 1. Tornado over Matador, Texas on April 29, 2009. Photo taken by Texas Tech meteorology graduate student Danielle Turner.
Major tornado outbreak possible Wednesday
The Vortex2 project will have its first good chance to help answer these questions on Wednesday, when a strong cold front is expected to pass through an unstable air mass over Missouri and Illinois, triggering severe thunderstorms with tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has given these states a "Moderate" chance of severe weather, the second highest alert level. Today, the Vortex2 armada is stationed in western Oklahoma. The cold front that is expected to trigger Wednesday's severe weather outbreak will be moving through Oklahoma today, bringing a slight chance of severe weather to that state. You can follow the progress of the Vortex2 field project this Spring through our new featured Vortex2 blog. This blog is being written by a team of six University of Michigan students that will help deploy the Texas Tech "Sticknet" sensors during a tornado.
Figure 2. Severe weather outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday, May 13.
An average tornado season so far over the U.S.
Through April, U.S. tornado activity was very close to the mean observed during the past five years, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, there were just 15 tornado deaths through April, compared to 70 deaths through April of 2008, and the 3-year average of 60 deaths. According to the unofficial seasonal stats at Wikipedia, we've had 57 strong EF2 and EF3 tornadoes so far this year, and two violent EF4 tornadoes. These are fairly typical numbers of strong and violent tornadoes for this point in the season. The season's first EF4 hit Lone Grove, Oklahoma on February 10, killing eight, injuring 46, and destroying 114 homes, and was the strongest February tornado to hit Oklahoma since 1950. The season's second EF4 hit Murfreesboro, Tennessee on April 10, killing two.
Wunderground launches high-definition radar product
In case you missed my post on this in December, wunderground is now providing imagery from a network of 45 Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) units located at airports across the U.S. The radars were developed and deployed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) beginning in 1994, as a response to several disastrous jetliner crashes in the 1970s and 1980s caused by strong thunderstorm winds. The crashes occurred because of wind shear--a sudden change in wind speed and direction. Wind shear is common in thunderstorms, due to a downward rush of air called a microburst or downburst. The TDWRs can detect such dangerous wind shear conditions, and have been instrumental in enhancing aviation safety in the U.S. over the past 15 years. The TDWRs also measure the same quantities as our familiar network of 148 NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler radars--precipitation intensity, winds, rainfall rate, echo tops, etc. However, the newer Terminal Doppler Weather Radars are higher resolution, and can "see" details in much finer detail close to the radar. This high-resolution data has generally not been available to the public until now. Thanks to a collaboration between the National Weather Service (NWS) and the FAA, the data for all 44 of 45 TDWRs is now available in real time. We're calling them "High-Def" stations on our NEXRAD radar page, and they are denoted by a yellow "+" symbol. Only one TDWR radar (Las Vegas) remains to be added; this will happen in June. For more info on how to interpret the new TDWR images, see our radar FAQ page.
Jeff Masters
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"You can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all the time"
and...... I have seen this face in JFV's stash of friends from the past...... can't fool these mommy eyes.....and I don't forget....
Correct! I do not like being taken for a fool... and after "suckering" the nurturers last year over that baby crap - I'd like to see him take responsibility & be accountable for his actions. We're a forgiving bunch -- I have little tolerance for deceit -- there's enough on the planet.
I stood up for him initially - and he took advantage my kindness. To HIM: Do not think I won't turn around and bite your head off because I'm nice...and don't mistake my niceness for stupidity"
..now back to the weather
Epac is May 15th isn't it?
That gives you something until the First.
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 131202
ARZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-132000-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE
GREAT LAKES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG A
SHARP COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS SURGES INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT FRONTAL
ZONE...INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...THEN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI INTO KANSAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS LATER THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH MANY STORMS...ALONG WITH A FEW
TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY...A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. WIND/MOISTURE PROFILES WITH THIS CIRCULATION SUGGEST A
FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS
THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ALSO
BE ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..DARROW.. 05/13/2009
Yep, on Friday.
Though we've already had the West-Pac start up, so the balls a-rollin' already.
I was thinking the same thing!
Um, you talkin to me? I am just an innocent keyboard jockey half of the week :)
Yup...I've got it up on my computer right now....appears headed just north of west.
Wasn't about you... hmm but now that you mention it... you have been picking on TS a lot.. you bully
Didn't you get rain yesterday?
You are just cranky cause of the hockey thing. I hope not to be the same tomorrow :)
True... I still have to get even for the Flu mail you sent.
Didn't Florida get a fair amount of rain yesterday?
You???? LOL you are most innocent.... humm wait a minute that goes to Orca cause he's got the halo...
I highly suspect within a few months.. you going to be saying.... the darn rain can stop anytime now.
Not our neighborhood - was wondering Ossqss, if you got some rain 'cause you're on the other side of I75. got work today at the club.... 50% chance of rain --whatta ya think?
Orca - Oss & I are neighbors he's east of I75, I'm west.....
Ya think?....maybe the humans, but not the aquifer..... I'm losing pressure on the hoses out East everyday.... the water hole I posted earlier is a fair indication of how LOW we are!!
Not a drop here, just wind. I am hoping we get some later today.
ROFLMAO - 3 pointer dunk for sure!
Yeah, she looks pretty good for a 62 year old guy doesn't she? Click on my handle and you can see how close I actually got to her with a piece of sliced ham in my hand. Yeah, I know a wild hawk wouldn't know what a piece of sliced ham was, but I didn't have any live chipmunks in my fridge! :)
That was cold, gee, I wonder how old a guy has to be to even know about tintype pictures?
Almost as old as me I would imagine. :)
morning surfmom!!!,GOM up to 82*F,nearshore probably a little warmer...fishing has been great right on MY beach,lol...lots of spanish mackerel,snook and tarpon out there!!!!,plenty o baitfish as well,I'm loving it!!!!.......If I've learned one thing in this world is almost everyone you meet will take "kindness" for "weakness",as you said just bite there heads off,lol.....however this kid is not jfv,he types to gangsta,trust me I'm gangsta as well,lol.......
Has anyone found a link that tells us where the storm chasers are located for the current event? The Vortex2 page is getting crushed again or is down.
532 Good morning to you. I hope your day gets better :)
,JMO....there could be another small severe wx out break along the seabreeze collision simular to yesterday allthough the ULL are a little drier and could result in more severe than yesterday and higher pops along the coast as there is more a ESE flow vs yesterdays WNW....
asp, this is the tropical weather blog. Not the tropical climate blog or climate change blog. Everyone here in the off season knows exactly the functions and causes of a TC.
My second point was my opinion. Calling it irrelevant is not an effective way to win friends nor influence people. Reminds me of someone...
Is that a tame or wild hawk? You are really close... It seems you have spent a lot of time getting the hawk accustomed to you if it is wild... Kudos to you man!!! I had 5 foxes that would come up and feed on my back porch... I finally got them used to me being around them while they fed, It was one of the coolest experiences of my life!
I would say that he is purposely typing incorrectly in order to fool people...
However, i dont personally care if it is him or not, as others have stated, i too am amused by his over-enthusiam and aggressiveness most of the time
Are you loco? A better understanding of the precursors leading to nadoes is what they are hunting. That would hopefully yield better lead times in warnings and fewer false alarms.
There isn't much doubt about what causes an inhabited house to be flattened in Oklahoma, nor that it is not a good thing.
Whom do you think pays for flights into hurricanes? You think we should quit doing that, too?
Like everyone else I don't care if it's him or not, I think it is actually kind of funny that he doesn't have the nerve to tell us that it is. If we are wrong I will extend my apologies to WS for grouping him with the likes.
WS claims to be from Ft. Lauderdale while JFV always said Miami.
Good idea. I was wondering if it was him, but a part of me thinks not. I just think this dude is excited about the blog, and doesnt know proper blog ediquite (sp) if you will.
I let him know through WU Email that if he has questions he can email them to myself, or anyone else for that matter. Dunno if he will do that or simply stick to the blog.
Back to weather: Does anyone see that SE Louisiana will have a chance for some thunderstorms today?
Based on the clouds out my window, and a combination of the warmth and humidity, I'd say we have at least a 30% chance of isolated storms. I noticed that weather.com doesnt place a chance at all, and WU places a 20% chance.
I just feel our chances are a bit higher.
So FT Lauderdale and Miami are the same Metro area... Soooooo... One more piece falls into place
It's him. I made the connection on his first post. I say give him another chance if he wants to be a part of the blog that bad. Young folks can grow up an awful lot in a year.
A couple days old, but worth a watch. Hum, note the mention of HD cameras, I think someone told us TWC did not have them :-)
Oss...pay no attention to that man behind the curtain :>)
It's him.
I bet they are going to be hanging out along the dryline/triplepoint in SW OK/N TX!
I'm cool with giving him another chance. I would always like the same for myself. Just wish he would be straight up. This is a great community of like-minded people, so I can't say I blame him for wanting to be a part.
The space here is for Posting relevant info for the entry.
As the season cranks up,all the rules of Dr. Masters Blog and the community standards will be enforced 100%
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