Influenza and the weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 PM GMT on May 04, 2009

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It is well known that influenza hits hardest in winter--November to March in the Northern Hemisphere, and May to September in the Southern Hemisphere. In fact, the name influenza comes from the Italian word influenza, meaning "influence"--referring to the "influence of the season" (winter) in causing the illness. In the tropics, where there is little change in seasons, influenza occurs year-round (though increased incidence has been noted in rainy seasons--Viboud et al., 2006). Do the cold temperatures and lower humidities of winter cause increased transmission of the flu virus? If so, why is the current H1N1 swine flu outbreak doing so well, now that it is May, traditionally the end of flu season in the Northern Hemisphere? Or could it be that indoor crowding, lack of sunlight lowering vitamin D levels, and a more depressed immune system in winter are largely responsible, as some researchers have suggested?

Flu infections increase under cold or dry conditions
To test these hypotheses, researchers at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York did a study in 2007 that looked at flu transmission among guinea pigs, which are highly susceptible to human influenza and easily transmit the virus to other guinea pigs (Lowen et al., 2007). The animals were placed in adjacent cages, so that infections could occur by airborne transmission, but not by direct contact (guinea pig lovers will be happy to know that the influenza virus-infected guinea pigs did not display detectable symptoms of disease--weight loss, fever, sneezing, and coughing--during the experiments). By carefully controlling temperature and humidity, the scientists were able to study the effects of each. They found that the animals shed much more of the virus--and over a longer period of time--at cold temperatures, which led to increased infection rates. The animals' immune system showed no signs of stress from the cold weather, arguing against the idea that cold conditions lead to increased infections by lowering the immune system. Lower humidities were also found to increase flu transmission rate, though the variation of infection rate with humidity was more complicated. The scientists built a model (Figure 1) to fit the data, and proposed that lower humidity increased infection rates through two mechanisms:

1) The stability of influenza virons in the suspended aerosol particles infected creatures cough out is dependent upon the humidity. Viruses are most stable at low RH (20%-40%), least stable at intermediate RH (50%), and stable again at high RH (60%-80%) (Schaffer et al., 1976). Thus, the virus has better staying power at the low moisture levels typical of winter.

2) At high RH (80%), exhaled respiratory droplets grow quite large as water vapor condenses around them, and these drops quickly settle to the ground under the force of gravity. Thus, even though the virus is stable at high humidities, it settles out of the atmosphere quickly, and cannot contribute to influenza virus spread.


Figure 1. A model of influenza transmission rates at 68°F (20°C) (dashed line) and 41°F (5°C) (solid line), as a function of relative humidity. Transmission efficiency is highest at low relative humidity, when influenza virions in an aerosol are relatively stable, and exhaled respiratory droplets stay small and don't settle out under the force of gravity. Transmission is diminished at intermediate humidity when virus particles are relatively unstable, but improves in parallel with influenza virus stability at higher humidities. At high humidity, evaporation from exhaled particles is limited, respiratory droplets settle out of the air, and transmission is blocked. At cold temperatures (solid line), transmission is more efficient than at warm temperatures (dashed line), but is reduced to a rate of 50% at higher humidities. Image credit: Lowen, A.C., S. Mubareka, J. Steel, and P. Palese, 2007, "Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature", PLos Pathogons, October 2007.

The researchers found no guinea pig infections at 86°F (30°C), which implies that in tropical climates, people may transmit the virus by direct contact rather than by coughing and sneezing. A second study Lowen et al., 2009) confirmed this idea--at least among guinea pigs. The authors concluded, "To our knowledge, we demonstrate for the first time that cold temperatures and low relative humidity are favorable to the spread of influenza virus. Although other factors likely contribute to the periodicity of influenza epidemics, it is clear that air temperature and RH could play an important role. Influenza virus transmission indoors could potentially be curtailed by simply maintaining room air at warm temperatures (>20 °C) and either intermediate (50%) or high (80%) RHs".

Climate change and influenza
The results of this study imply that global warming may significantly reduce influenza world-wide, since a warmer climate will also be more humid. Typically, there are between three and five million cases of severe flu and up to 500,000 deaths worldwide each year. In the United States alone, an average of 41,400 deaths and 1.68 million hospitalizations are attributed to influenza each year. A warmer world should reduce these numbers, if the current research is correct. However, these gains must be balanced against the possibility that malaria will become more widespread in a warmer world, since malaria kills about one million people per year.


Figure 2. Combined flu and pneumonia deaths in the United Kingdom during the great 1918 flu pandemic showed that the flu had three distinct peaks: one in June - July (a relatively mild form of the disease), followed by an extremely deadly outbreak in October, then another during the winter of 1918 - 1919. The 1918 flu pandemic infected 1/3 of the world's population, killing 50 - 100 million people. Strangely, the October peak occurred almost world-wide, with Bombay, India and Boston, Massachusetts peaking the same week. Image credit: Jordan, E., "Epidemic influenza: a survey", Chicago: American Medical Association, 1927.

Flu pandemics show little seasonality
The current Mexican H1N1 swine flu outbreak is seemingly unusual, since it is hitting at the end of the traditional flu season, in April - May. However, when a new flu strain develops that humans have no immunity to, the new strain is less constrained by seasonality. According to Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger, the virologist who helped isolate the genetic code of the virus responsible for the great 1918 flu pandemic, "Historical records since the 16th century suggest that new influenza pandemics may appear at any time of year, not necessarily in the familiar annual winter patterns of inter-pandemic years, presumably because newly shifted influenza viruses behave differently when they find a universal or highly susceptible human population." Indeed, the 1918 flu pandemic reached its peak in September - October (Figure 2), and the most recent flu pandemic, the 1968 Hong Kong flu, began in July. It wouldn't surprise me if the current flu outbreak dies down in the Northern Hemisphere over the summer months, as the combined effects of high temperatures, higher humidities, less indoor crowding, and increased sunlight interfere with its spread. However, we need to be ready for the virus to reappear in the Fall--potentially in a mutated, more virulent form--such as occurred during the 1918 flu pandemic.

References
Lowen, A.C., S. Mubareka, J. Steel, and P. Palese, 2007, "Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature", PLos Pathogons, October 2007.

Lowen, A.C., S. Mubareka, J. Steel, and P. Palese, 2009, "High Temperature (30°C) Blocks Aerosol but Not Contact Transmission of Influenza Virus", Journal of Virology, June 2008, p. 5650-5652, Vol. 82, No. 11 0022-538X/08/$08.00+0 doi:10.1128/JVI.00325-08

Schaffer, F.L., M.E. Soergel, and D.C. Straube, 1976, "Survival of airborne influenza virus: effects of propagating host, relative humidity, and composition of spray fluids", Arch Virol 51: 263-273.

Viboud, C, W.J. Alonso, and L. Simonsen, 2006, "Influenza in tropical regions", PLoS Med 3: e89 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030089.

Vitamin D and influenza links:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/51913.ph p
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/0808 11195629.htm
http://www.vitamindcouncil.org/science/research/v itamin-d-and-influenza.shtml

Jeff Masters

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1044. Cavin Rawlins
10:37 AM GMT on May 08, 2009
.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1043. Orcasystems
1:25 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
Forced evacuations in hurricanes won't work

By ENTERPRISE OPINIONS
May, 6, 2009

Among the worst laws the state Legislature can pass are those whose enforcement is impractical and those that law enforcement doesn't see as a priority and therefore won't implement. A Senate bill that would allow authorities to use "reasonable force" to move people out during mandatory evacuations fails on both counts.

Some people will not leave when hurricanes threaten. They may think it's a false alarm or that their luck will hold anyway. During Ike, more than 20,000 people in Orange County alone stayed.

There is no way police could arrest thousands of holdouts and put them on buses. It would be enormously stressful even to try, especially if the diehards were disabled or elderly.

During a hurricane watch, authorities have dozens of important things to do. People who resist mandatory evacuation orders should be told they're on their own. Moreover, no lives should be risked to save them until the storm is over.

Hurricanes are incredibly difficult to deal with. But a bad law like this is worse than no law at all.


That is humorous in a weird sort of way. These are the same people that can't figure out why the authorities are not there 12 hours after the storm passes, to supply them with everything.. including food and shelter for months or longer.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1042. Patrap
1:25 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
pssst.morning jaw jack club..LOL

A new Blog is up..your off the page.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127855
1041. Ossqss
1:24 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Worldwide H1N1 flu tally tops 2,000 - WHO


youth-hit-hardest-swine-flu
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1040. theshepherd
1:23 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Maybe you can borrow some of that halo goop that Orca uses - might work on stir sticks.

Thank you.
But, that BenGay/Mullet formula he came up with would tarnish mine.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
1039. Patrap
1:17 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Forced evacuations in hurricanes won't work

By ENTERPRISE OPINIONS
May, 6, 2009

Among the worst laws the state Legislature can pass are those whose enforcement is impractical and those that law enforcement doesn't see as a priority and therefore won't implement. A Senate bill that would allow authorities to use "reasonable force" to move people out during mandatory evacuations fails on both counts.

Some people will not leave when hurricanes threaten. They may think it's a false alarm or that their luck will hold anyway. During Ike, more than 20,000 people in Orange County alone stayed.

There is no way police could arrest thousands of holdouts and put them on buses. It would be enormously stressful even to try, especially if the diehards were disabled or elderly.

During a hurricane watch, authorities have dozens of important things to do. People who resist mandatory evacuation orders should be told they're on their own. Moreover, no lives should be risked to save them until the storm is over.

Hurricanes are incredibly difficult to deal with. But a bad law like this is worse than no law at all.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127855
1038. KEHCharleston
1:15 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting theshepherd:

mmmmph mmmph mmph mmph
;>(
Maybe you can borrow some of that halo goop that Orca uses - might work on stir sticks.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1037. Patrap
1:13 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will be at ILM

Updated: May 6, 2009 10:10 AM
Posted by Debra Worley

WILMINGTON, NC (WECT) - Hurricane season runs from June through November, and in an effort to promote hurricane awareness the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will be in Wilmington Thursday.

The Hurricane Hunter is a plane that flies into hurricanes to relay critical information to meteorologists during the season.

The public is invited to Wilmington International Airport to meet the First Alert Weather Team and to check out the aircraft in addition to other helicopters, planes, booths and public displays.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127855
1036. theshepherd
1:12 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting KEHCharleston:
74.7F with dewpoint at 71. Another muggy day in the Holy City.
Looks like the rain to our west will slide to the north of us yet again. That bubble over the city is beginning to get annoying.

I see that Big Fish was offering my stir stick last night. (In my absence)
If you borrow it, I expect that it will not be bloody or broken upon return.

mmmmph mmmph mmph mmph
;>(
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
1035. Patrap
1:11 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Hilton Head Island hosting hurricane expo, forum
The Associated Press



HILTON HEAD ISLAND, S.C. -- Officials say the 2009 hurricane season will be less active than last year, but South Carolina authorities still want to make sure residents are prepared for any storms that come this way.

The Hilton Head Island-Bluffton Chamber of Commerce on Thursday is hosting a free forum and expo on hurricane preparedness.

One panel of experts will talk about forecasts and preparations for the coming storm season. Another panel will cover insurance issues for homes and businesses in the coastal area.
Quantcast

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Last year was one of the most active hurricane season's on record, with 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, forming in the Atlantic. Five of the eight hurricanes were at least Category 3 strength.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127855
1034. Orcasystems
1:08 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning, Orca
Would not want to be DAI, but sure would like just a wee bit of what RTLSNK is getting (God bless him)


He does seem to attract a lot of those rainclouds with red and purple in them :)
I think Shep is finished with your stick... my guess is it will have to be cleaned :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1033. KEHCharleston
1:03 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Good morning, Orca
Would not want to be DAI, but sure would like just a wee bit of what RTLSNK is getting (God bless him)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1032. Orcasystems
12:57 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge

RTLSNK, you have been in almost every DAI in the past month... your weather sucks.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1031. KEHCharleston
12:50 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
South Caroling H1N1 update.

Nothing new. Still the original 16 cases associated with school trip to Cancun. All doing well.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1030. KEHCharleston
12:25 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
74.7F with dewpoint at 71. Another muggy day in the Holy City.
Looks like the rain to our west will slide to the north of us yet again. That bubble over the city is beginning to get annoying.

I see that Big Fish was offering my stir stick last night. (In my absence)
If you borrow it, I expect that it will not be bloody or broken upon return.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1029. CaneWarning
12:20 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Morning


Tropical Update/Best Job In the World/Hurricane Humor


I loved the Hurricane humor there!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1028. RTLSNK
12:12 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
67*F in Macon, Ga this morning, 98% humidity.
Hmmm, seems a little high even for Macon.
Better go outside and take a look.
No, it's correct, should be rising soon too.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20878
1027. CycloneOz
12:09 PM GMT on May 07, 2009
Good Morning to all! :)

Stillwaiting: Check your e-mail!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3625
1026. SpicyAngel1072
11:40 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Good morning all :)

Anything good out there?
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
1025. Thundercloud01221991
11:01 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
good morning 456
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1024. Cavin Rawlins
10:57 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Morning


Tropical Update/Best Job In the World/Hurricane Humor
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1023. CycloneOz
10:52 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting:


Yea,I live right across the street from the GOM,so staying would not be a good idea for a major, I'd go 5 miles inland to my dads house if that happened..staying for a 1 or 2 would be Ok right???
I have the same weatherstation you do oz!!!,did you get it set up yet,I know you said you were going to mount it to your CV!!,can't beat the price.....oh yea there are 2 condos right here on the GOM,1 w/5 story garage,located on siesta key,in sarasota,FL!!!!


Yeah...you've got it, man. I can tell.

What you've said about small ones is correct. Those are the ones to check out for sure. You still have to be careful. If it's a 1 or 2 (maybe even 3) and I made it, you're with me.

Higher (4-5)? You're right again. Make the move to shelter...unless you've got a concrete and steel bunker close to the water. Those parking structures are awesome for many reasons, but you will be scared out of your mind once they start bumping, rolling, and making noises as the wind picks up.

There's also the inherent difference between a day storm and a night storm as to what you're able to do and where...

I'm going to set my weather station up once it comes. I've ordered it, but they have none until the 10th...so I wait. I will set it up with a web cam some weekend soon. I have to test how much bandwidth I'm sending to the internet. VerizonWireless cell service only allows me 5 gig a month...and streaming video with weather data may eat all that bandwidth up in just a day or less. I'll be using a software called Networx to monitor my bandwidth usage during the test.

One other small problem is that the Dell Mini-9 that I'm going to use as my interface to the internet gets a little hot when the wireless chip is used for hours on end. The entire unit has been tested for heat and the unit averages about 90 degrees. Around that chip is 104 degrees. I think I have a unique solution to the problem, though. Get a tupperware and throw in some frozen gel packs. Put a screen over the top, place the Mini-9 on it and then bungee it down inside the case.

We must talk more. I feel as many in here do that the west coast of FL is way overdue for a strong storm and perhaps it could happen this year.

It doesn't have to be at your front door. It can be down the road a ways...in either case, you'd be with me.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3625
1022. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:27 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "EMONG" has intensified further and endangers Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
==================================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Emong (Chan-hom) located at 15.9°N 119.0°E or 110 kms northwest of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (80 knots) near the center with gustiness up to 185 km/h (100 knots). The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 9 knots.

Warning Signal #3 (100-185 km/h winds)
=====================================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Pangasinan
2.Zambales
3.Tarlac
4.Nueva Vizcaya
5.La Union
6.Ilocos Sur
7.Benguet
8.Ifugao
9.Mt. Province
10.Kalinga
11.Apayao
12.Abra
13.Ilocos Norte

Warning Signals #2 (60-100 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Bataan
2.Pampanga
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Bulacan
5.Aurora
6.Quirino
7.Isabela
8.Cagayan
9.Babuyan Group of Islands
10.Batanes Group of Islands

Warning Signals #1 (30-60 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Metro Manila
2.Batangas
3.Laguna
4.Rizal
5.Oriental Mindoro
6.Occidental Mindoro
7.Lubang Island
8.Calamian Group of Islands
9.Cavite
10.Northern Quezon

Residents living in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslide. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under storm signals #2 and #3 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. tonight.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45231
1021. stillwaiting
5:25 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
good night,so tired....no luck fishing!!!,but sat. looks good w/a full moon.....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1020. stillwaiting
5:21 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
Are you still wanting to "you know what"?


Yea,I live right across the street from the GOM,so staying would not be a good idea for a major, I'd go 5 miles inland to my dads house if that happened..staying for a 1 or 2 would be Ok right???
I have the same weatherstation you do oz!!!,did you get it set up yet,I know you said you were going to mount it to your CV!!,can't beat the price.....oh yea there are 2 condos right here on the GOM,1 w/5 story garage,located on siesta key,in sarasota,FL!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1019. boyzNme
4:52 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting:



I shouldn't have said that, it was ignorant,even if thats what I believe,it was out of line, sorry to everyone I've emotionaly hurt:(



Thank you,
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 5 Comments: 60
1017. CycloneOz
4:45 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Thanks, Keep.

That's the most wicked animation I've seen in awhile. Pretty cool.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3625
1016. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:44 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53585
1015. CycloneOz
4:43 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Are you still wanting to "you know what"?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3625
1014. CycloneOz
4:41 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting:


you know you also have resource in SWFL,as well oz...you do a great job!!,IMO


Same with you, boss! Pray God the day never happens...but if it does...e-mail me for my cell. If I'm there early enough, we can grab a beer! [I'm buyin'!] And if it is a severe storm, we can discuss your plan of action.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3625
1013. SomeRandomTexan
4:39 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Well hello everyone! What's the good word for tonight? Did the Africa blob become a Tropical Wave or are we still surfing for the first Official wave of the season?
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
1012. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:36 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45231
1011. stillwaiting
4:32 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:


I pray God we never meet under such circumstances...but having said that...

Sweet! Thank you very much.

If ever comes a day, e-mail me here and I'll give you my cell number.


you know you also have resource in SWFL,as well oz...you do a great job!!,IMO
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1010. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:24 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Yay! STORMTOP's back.
Good to see you!
he was here earlier must be getting the weather central basement forecast desk and the flush model ready for the approaching season
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53585
1009. Barefootontherocks
4:22 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting STORMT0P:
especially if it's a car...or kristy ally...

Yay! STORMTOP's back.
Good to see you!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18561
1008. Orcasystems
4:10 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting theshepherd:
Yes Sir. I be good.


See, I told you not to feed him :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1007. theshepherd
4:06 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


You were suppose to get the stir "Paddle" from SM. You know we don't trust you under the Lily pad.. your up to no good.
Yes Sir. I be good.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
1006. Tazmanian
4:06 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
LLOWSTONE VOLCANO (CAVW#1205-01-)
44.43°N 110.67°W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m)
Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Aviation Color Code: GREEN

April 2009 Yellowstone Seismicity Summary

During the month of April 2009, 242 earthquakes were located in the Yellowstone region. The largest event was a magnitude 2.7 on April 28 at 7:14 PM MDT, located about 6 miles north northeast of Old Faithful, YNP. A second M 2.7 was part of a swarm detailed below. There were three earthquake swarms during the month of April. The first, located 4 miles northwest of West Yellowstone, included 62 events spanning April 13-18 with magnitudes ranging from 1.3 to -0.6. The second, located 7 miles northwest of West Yellowstone, included 111 events from April 17-24 with magnitudes 2.3 to -0.8. The third swarm, located 11 miles northeast of Old Faithful, included 19 events all occurring on April 29th with magnitudes ranging from 2.7 to 0.5.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114961
1005. CycloneOz
4:04 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


OZ!! I am a 1/2 block South of the Biloxi Regional Medical Center. I can look out my window and see hospital room lights on. BTW, the parking garage is acoss the street from the hospital. It is a new structure, about 5 years old

anyway, if we are getting hit, you are more than welcome!!


I pray God we never meet under such circumstances...but having said that...

Sweet! Thank you very much.

If ever comes a day, e-mail me here and I'll give you my cell number.

Should it be an extreme storm, I will most likely start out by asking you if you've already evacuated or taken shelter.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3625
1003. CycloneOz
4:00 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
I'm going to help out old Shep here with a little lesson in geophysics...

The planet Earth is alive in that it has robust systems that interact with each other and on all things.

As it revolves around the Sun, Earth...which is 3/4 water, rotates on it's tilted axis. Now, because the Earth is in the "habitable zone" [an area around the Sun where water can exist in a liquid form], it stands to reason that indeed, much of the Earth's water is liquid in nature.

Now...because the land continents of the Earth exist on "plates" underwhich lies molten rock, the plates naturally move apart and against each other.

Eons ago, when the N. American continent drifted away from Africa, a gulf of water rushed in to fill the gap. As the gap widened and the Earth continued to rotate on its axis, and the Sun continued to heat the water...well guess what happened one summer day...the first hurricane!

As the plates move...earthquakes and volcanos. As the seasons change because of the tilted axis, blizzard snows and all kinds of extreme weather that form things like tornados and droughts.

And because Earth has life in abundance, including bacteria and viruses...there is disease.

And finally...because we are mortal [morte], we all die.

Dude, your planet is as alive as you are today. It's been around way before you and will outlive you...guaranteed.

Want to live someplace where conditions pretty much stay the same year to year...then move to Mars!

Otherwise, you're stuck here with the rest of us in the only place we can see that harbors life of anykind [to date...I'm holding out for Europa and a seabed of shrimp].

You can mock me all you want, but this is what it all boils down to....

I've been fascinated by hurricanes since I was a kid in Pensacola, FL. People...in their ignorance, stupidity...or for whatever reason...decide [make decisions] to build structures and live in those structures that are susceptible to hurricanes.

It's not my fault! I didn't create the Earth, nor do I own property along a coast that gets hurricanes! I do not live in a danger zone, but millions of others do. It is for those people that I do what I do. Hardly anyone evacuated for Ike. Imagine had the sea wall been breached that night! 1900 revisited and thousands would have died!

You vent on me, see me as some sort of paparattzi, but I didn't build the homes and businesses. I'm not the government collecting taxes on those things. I do not live there.

But hurricanes are Planet Earth's most awesome storm. They get named. Property is destroyed and people die in them. But no one is scared, dude. NO ONE IS SCARED OF THEM... Do you understand that?

My website is free. Anyone along the coast can come and visit, learn and prepare...and if just one person or family evacuates because of what I do and it turns out that they continue to live when in all rights they might have died, then it will be worth it...

...even under the onslaught of comments from people like yourself.

Your planet is alive. Celebrate that every day! These terrible storms and other things can only happen because of all the good things we sometimes take foregranted that Earth provides to us. It's a yen and yang thing, dude. Live with it you will, enjoy it is my advice.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3625
1002. Orcasystems
3:59 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting theshepherd:
OK. But, it's only because Rb has my baby seal club and K tossed me that useless stir stick. I'm sorry Dad, I won't do it no more.
Back under my lily pad...


You were suppose to get the stir "Paddle" from SM. You know we don't trust you under the Lily pad.. your up to no good.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1001. theshepherd
3:56 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


Shep keeps forgetting the golden rule.. don't feed them :)
OK. But, it's only because Rb has my baby seal club and K tossed me that useless stir stick. I'm sorry Dad, I won't do it no more.
Back under my lily pad...
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
1000. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:55 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Typhoon Emong (Chan-hom)

Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45231
999. charlottefl
3:54 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Boca Grande pass off the coast of SWFL has the world record for the largest hammerhead sharks. It's not uncommon to find a 13'+ long hammerhead swimming in the pass. And know you know why I don't swim in the Gulf ;)
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
997. RTLSNK
3:51 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Went through Hurricane Andrew, two odd things out of many that happened, storm picked up a pier piling about 30 feet long and shot it into the corner of a concrete block home like an arrow into a target. Also picked up a Jeep SUV and put it into the second story bedroom of a condo. Crushed everything it came in contact with. Cars do that to whatever they hit at 150 miles an hour. Don't miss this: the key words for preparing for a hurricane are not "never turn your back on a hurricane", they are "objects that fly around at hurricane
speeds can kill you". End of report.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20878
996. theshepherd
3:45 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting Ossqss:


Not murky at all, clear as a bell until the event !
ROFLMAO
I'll bet I know whose trunks murkied up the water...
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
995. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:43 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

"EMONG" continues to intensify as it moves closer to Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
==================================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Emong (Chan-hom) located at 15.5°N 117.9°E or 200 kms west-northwest of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 140 km/h (75 knots) near the center with gustiness up to 170 km/h (90 knots). The storm is reported as moving northeast at 7 knots.

Warning Signal #3 (100-185 km/h winds)
=====================================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Western Pangasinan
2.La Union
3.Ilocos Sur

Warning Signals #2 (60-100 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Zambales
2.Tarlac
3.Rest of Pangasinan
4.Benguet
5.Ifugao
6.Mt. Province
7.Kalinga
8.Apayao
9.Abra
10.Ilocos Norte

Warning Signals #1 (30-60 km/h winds)
==============================

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Metro Manila
2.Batangas
3.Laguna
4.Rizal
5.Oriental Mindoro
6.Occidental Mindoro
7.Lubang Island
8.Calamian Group of Islands
9.Cavite
10.Pampanga
11.Bataan
12.Bulacan
13.Northern Quezon
14.Aurora
15.Nueva Ecija
16.Nueva Viscaya
17.Quirino
18.Isabela
19.Cagayan
20.Babuyan Island
21.Batanes Group of Islands

Residents living in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslide. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under storm signals #2 and #3 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 P.M. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45231
994. Orcasystems
3:40 AM GMT on May 07, 2009
Quoting zoomiami:
just giving ya'll a hard time - get a kick out of watching the back and forth.


Deb, when is the new update coming out :)
I know you are far to sweet and innocent to join this crowd in picking on me :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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