Influenza and the weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 PM GMT on May 04, 2009

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It is well known that influenza hits hardest in winter--November to March in the Northern Hemisphere, and May to September in the Southern Hemisphere. In fact, the name influenza comes from the Italian word influenza, meaning "influence"--referring to the "influence of the season" (winter) in causing the illness. In the tropics, where there is little change in seasons, influenza occurs year-round (though increased incidence has been noted in rainy seasons--Viboud et al., 2006). Do the cold temperatures and lower humidities of winter cause increased transmission of the flu virus? If so, why is the current H1N1 swine flu outbreak doing so well, now that it is May, traditionally the end of flu season in the Northern Hemisphere? Or could it be that indoor crowding, lack of sunlight lowering vitamin D levels, and a more depressed immune system in winter are largely responsible, as some researchers have suggested?

Flu infections increase under cold or dry conditions
To test these hypotheses, researchers at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York did a study in 2007 that looked at flu transmission among guinea pigs, which are highly susceptible to human influenza and easily transmit the virus to other guinea pigs (Lowen et al., 2007). The animals were placed in adjacent cages, so that infections could occur by airborne transmission, but not by direct contact (guinea pig lovers will be happy to know that the influenza virus-infected guinea pigs did not display detectable symptoms of disease--weight loss, fever, sneezing, and coughing--during the experiments). By carefully controlling temperature and humidity, the scientists were able to study the effects of each. They found that the animals shed much more of the virus--and over a longer period of time--at cold temperatures, which led to increased infection rates. The animals' immune system showed no signs of stress from the cold weather, arguing against the idea that cold conditions lead to increased infections by lowering the immune system. Lower humidities were also found to increase flu transmission rate, though the variation of infection rate with humidity was more complicated. The scientists built a model (Figure 1) to fit the data, and proposed that lower humidity increased infection rates through two mechanisms:

1) The stability of influenza virons in the suspended aerosol particles infected creatures cough out is dependent upon the humidity. Viruses are most stable at low RH (20%-40%), least stable at intermediate RH (50%), and stable again at high RH (60%-80%) (Schaffer et al., 1976). Thus, the virus has better staying power at the low moisture levels typical of winter.

2) At high RH (80%), exhaled respiratory droplets grow quite large as water vapor condenses around them, and these drops quickly settle to the ground under the force of gravity. Thus, even though the virus is stable at high humidities, it settles out of the atmosphere quickly, and cannot contribute to influenza virus spread.


Figure 1. A model of influenza transmission rates at 68°F (20°C) (dashed line) and 41°F (5°C) (solid line), as a function of relative humidity. Transmission efficiency is highest at low relative humidity, when influenza virions in an aerosol are relatively stable, and exhaled respiratory droplets stay small and don't settle out under the force of gravity. Transmission is diminished at intermediate humidity when virus particles are relatively unstable, but improves in parallel with influenza virus stability at higher humidities. At high humidity, evaporation from exhaled particles is limited, respiratory droplets settle out of the air, and transmission is blocked. At cold temperatures (solid line), transmission is more efficient than at warm temperatures (dashed line), but is reduced to a rate of 50% at higher humidities. Image credit: Lowen, A.C., S. Mubareka, J. Steel, and P. Palese, 2007, "Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature", PLos Pathogons, October 2007.

The researchers found no guinea pig infections at 86°F (30°C), which implies that in tropical climates, people may transmit the virus by direct contact rather than by coughing and sneezing. A second study Lowen et al., 2009) confirmed this idea--at least among guinea pigs. The authors concluded, "To our knowledge, we demonstrate for the first time that cold temperatures and low relative humidity are favorable to the spread of influenza virus. Although other factors likely contribute to the periodicity of influenza epidemics, it is clear that air temperature and RH could play an important role. Influenza virus transmission indoors could potentially be curtailed by simply maintaining room air at warm temperatures (>20 °C) and either intermediate (50%) or high (80%) RHs".

Climate change and influenza
The results of this study imply that global warming may significantly reduce influenza world-wide, since a warmer climate will also be more humid. Typically, there are between three and five million cases of severe flu and up to 500,000 deaths worldwide each year. In the United States alone, an average of 41,400 deaths and 1.68 million hospitalizations are attributed to influenza each year. A warmer world should reduce these numbers, if the current research is correct. However, these gains must be balanced against the possibility that malaria will become more widespread in a warmer world, since malaria kills about one million people per year.


Figure 2. Combined flu and pneumonia deaths in the United Kingdom during the great 1918 flu pandemic showed that the flu had three distinct peaks: one in June - July (a relatively mild form of the disease), followed by an extremely deadly outbreak in October, then another during the winter of 1918 - 1919. The 1918 flu pandemic infected 1/3 of the world's population, killing 50 - 100 million people. Strangely, the October peak occurred almost world-wide, with Bombay, India and Boston, Massachusetts peaking the same week. Image credit: Jordan, E., "Epidemic influenza: a survey", Chicago: American Medical Association, 1927.

Flu pandemics show little seasonality
The current Mexican H1N1 swine flu outbreak is seemingly unusual, since it is hitting at the end of the traditional flu season, in April - May. However, when a new flu strain develops that humans have no immunity to, the new strain is less constrained by seasonality. According to Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger, the virologist who helped isolate the genetic code of the virus responsible for the great 1918 flu pandemic, "Historical records since the 16th century suggest that new influenza pandemics may appear at any time of year, not necessarily in the familiar annual winter patterns of inter-pandemic years, presumably because newly shifted influenza viruses behave differently when they find a universal or highly susceptible human population." Indeed, the 1918 flu pandemic reached its peak in September - October (Figure 2), and the most recent flu pandemic, the 1968 Hong Kong flu, began in July. It wouldn't surprise me if the current flu outbreak dies down in the Northern Hemisphere over the summer months, as the combined effects of high temperatures, higher humidities, less indoor crowding, and increased sunlight interfere with its spread. However, we need to be ready for the virus to reappear in the Fall--potentially in a mutated, more virulent form--such as occurred during the 1918 flu pandemic.

References
Lowen, A.C., S. Mubareka, J. Steel, and P. Palese, 2007, "Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature", PLos Pathogons, October 2007.

Lowen, A.C., S. Mubareka, J. Steel, and P. Palese, 2009, "High Temperature (30°C) Blocks Aerosol but Not Contact Transmission of Influenza Virus", Journal of Virology, June 2008, p. 5650-5652, Vol. 82, No. 11 0022-538X/08/$08.00+0 doi:10.1128/JVI.00325-08

Schaffer, F.L., M.E. Soergel, and D.C. Straube, 1976, "Survival of airborne influenza virus: effects of propagating host, relative humidity, and composition of spray fluids", Arch Virol 51: 263-273.

Viboud, C, W.J. Alonso, and L. Simonsen, 2006, "Influenza in tropical regions", PLoS Med 3: e89 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030089.

Vitamin D and influenza links:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/51913.ph p
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/0808 11195629.htm
http://www.vitamindcouncil.org/science/research/v itamin-d-and-influenza.shtml

Jeff Masters

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Quoting natrwalkn:
Finished all my exams yesterday, grades were all posted today. Graduating from UNC-Wilmington with a BA in Physical Geography and a 3.5 GPA. Commencement this Saturday. On to grad school to do some SERIOUS climatology research!!! WHOPEEEEE!!!!!!!


Absolute congrats to you!! Now is a good time to go to grad school. I waited 5 years before I started and it was too long. Grad school is the best part!!
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awsome link for soundings:Link
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National Radar Animated View,wunderground
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this one from Jackson,Ms cape is over 2000...Link
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U.S. Severe Weather Map
Updated: 12:00 PM CDT on May 06, 2009
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sounding out of N alabama,notice the cape is over 1000:Link
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These images show the Stack-5 Ground Support Equipment Lifting Fixture or as it is known to the
The CM-LAS and the Birdcage
Posted on May 04, 2009 05:20:12 PM | Dan Kanigan


Ares I-X hardware has the best nicknames.


I-X team, the "birdcage" being lowered over the Crew Module/Launch Abort System (CM/LAS) for a fit check. The birdcage is a metal framework that was collaboratively built and designed at the Langley Research Center in Langley, Virginia and Kennedy Space Center in Florida. It fits over the CM/LAS in order for it to be moved and stacked creating super stack 5.


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737. beell
726.
That Day 1 expired at 7AM this morning. The sounding is from Jackson, MS
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Gustav, Ike, Alma and Poloma barred from storm list
Article from: Agence France-Presse


May 07, 2009

GUSTAV, Ike, Paloma and Alma have been barred from the World Meteorological Organisation's rotating storm name list because of the carnage they caused.
The four deadly hurricanes were officially "retired from the official name rotation by the World Meteorological Organisation's hurricane committee because of the deaths and damage they caused in 2008", the WMO said.

Under the WMO rotation system the names would not have been used again before 2014 but they have had their chances and will be replaced by Gonzalo, Isaias, Paulette in the Atlantic, and Amanda in the North Pacific.

The hurricane committee draws up a list every six years of potential names for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin and North Pacific.

Gustav became a hurricane on August 26 last year. It killed 77 people in Haiti and 35 others in Mexico and the southern United States.

Ike struck the Turks and Caicos Islands on September 3 and later swept across the Bahamas, northeast Cuba and Galveston Island, Texas on September 13.

It killed more than 80 people across the Caribbean and Bahamas, and another 20 in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Property damage in the United States alone was estimated at 19.3 billion dollars.

Paloma reached hurricane intensity on November 7 and became the second strongest November hurricane in Atlantic. The Cuban government said more than 1400 homes were destroyed in the island with 300 million dollars in damage.

Alma was the first North Pacific basin tropical cyclone to make landfall along the Pacific Coast of Central America since records began in 1949.

The storm formed on May 28 off Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica. Alma was responsible for the destruction of thousands of homes and left deaths in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras.

Since 1953, tropical storms in the Atlantic have been given names, originally listed by the US National Hurricane Centre and now established by an international panel organised by the WMO.

Initially the list included only female names but male names were added in 1979.
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At 2:00 p.m. today, the Tropical Storm "EMONG" ("CHAN-HOM") west of Southern Luzon was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 650 km West Southwest of Pangasinan (14.0°N, 114.0°E) with maximum sustained winds of 110kph(68Mph) near the center and gustiness of up to 140kph(86Mph). It is forecast to move East Northeast at 17 kph.
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it appears the loop eddy is starting to bring in some warmer water temps to the GOM
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@729
Loop Eddy breaking off? The NE corner of the current is heading south by SW, looks like the entire NW is gonna pop off. Take a look at wavcis.
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Pretty good looking area of convection after it splashed into the water off West Africa.Will this be the official first Tropical Wave by TPC? I know Weather456 says yes but what will TPC say?

Link
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GOM 60 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast
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GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
I can ignore most of them(Flo-ridians),because so many of my northerners are taking this place over,I just enjoy the heck out of our weather though!!!and in 15-20yrs It'll be all but ours!!!!


I find your comment incredibly offensive. This is a weather blog and most of the time I ignore all the back and forth, the bickering and the one-upmanship; but this I cannot ignore. I am a Floridian, a South Floridian. I am from here, my children go to school here, this is our home and you are a waiter transplant at an Italian restaurant. Believe me, we locals grin and bear the rudeness, disrespect and sense of entitlement you transplants seem to think is due you. In reality, we wish you would go away. You talk about how you are so happy and it will be great when your northern partners take over from us "no common sense Flo-ridians". Well, if a weed in your yard could talk I am sure that is what he would say. Please don't be a weed. If you like where you were then go back. If you are going to stay with us here in Florida then learn some manners. By the way, we Flo-idians count down to the end of the northerner season just like us here on WU count down to the beginning of hurricane season. Thank you reading and I hope you will either be a Floridian or go home. Back to lurking.
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The highest CAPE value i could find is in WestCentral Louisiana. The SPC tornado outlook is showing the same.



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There will be a hurricane soon.
This month.
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it looks like we could have a supercell outbreak in Eastern alabama area,georgia and Tennesse...IMO
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mesoscale t-storm w/tornado near scottsbourogh,Alabama...of course moving NE!!!
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you guys have got to try this out its vary fast


Link
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Quoting melwerle:
I have no idea Tampa - haven't tried parsley yet...when it gets unbearable, I dump some oxyfresh in his water and you can actually sit near him again. If i don't use it on him, he smells like he's been eating...well never mind...he just smells like he's been eating something DEAD.



not trying to be vile,but dogs lick there butts alot....your probably smelling the results of that!!!,lol......parsley will work,it works for humans and thats why at some restruants a sprig of parsley is served with the main course,to freshen your breath after a stinky lobster w/drawn butter....I believe it originated from french or italian cuisine!!!!
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Lt. General Russel Honore offers lessons in getting ready for disasters

Posted by Susan Larson, Book editor, The Times-Picayune May 06, 2009 5:08AM

Every New Orleanian -- whether huddled at the convention center or in hurricane exile, staring at a TV screen -- remembers Lt. Gen. Russel Honore's arrival in flood-devastated New Orleans in 2005 as commander of Joint Task Force-Katrina.

Called a "John Wayne dude" by Mayor C. Ray Nagin, remembered for his admonition to soldiers to lower those guns trained on American citizens, and known for such frank assessments as "stuck on stupid," Honore was, for many, the first sign that maybe things would be OK, that maybe we'd get out of this fix after all.

In his new book, 'Survival: How a Culture of Preparedness Can Save You and Your Family from Disasters,' written with Atlanta Journal-Constitution reporter Ron Martz (Atria Books, $25), Honore, now a CNN expert on disaster preparedness, is taking the next step in the mission that began when he surveyed an American city in ruins: making sure that it never happens again.

After retiring from the Army in 2008, he has begun what he says is the work of his second act, creating a culture of preparedness. This book is a manual for citizens, urban planners, government officials, with suggestions that range from the simple (equip all rental property with weather radios) to the more complex (separate FEMA from the Department of Homeland Security) to the mundane (move National Preparedness Month from September to May).

Honore will be in New Orleans this weekend to receive an honorary degree from Loyola University; he will also make a stop at Borders/Uptown for a book signing in a city that embraces him as an honorary citizen.

AUTHOR! AUTHOR!
What: Retired Lt. Gen. Russel Honore signs 'Survival: How a Culture of Preparedness Can Save You and Your Family from Disasters'
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
Where: Borders, 3338 St. Charles Ave.

"I loved the city and I love the people there, but when I come back to New Orleans, I can't go anywhere," he said, referring to his many well-wishers. "I tried to go into a bar in the French Quarter once, and I could hardly find (make) my way back to my hotel."

He's a hometown boy in more ways than one. Born in Lakeland, about 25 miles north of Baton Rouge in Point Coupee Parish, during a hurricane in 1947, he was the eighth of 12 children. He grew up in the Creole culture as well as the hurricane culture, in a time, he writes, that was "an era of self-sufficiency, when people were expected to fend for themselves and prepare themselves and their families for disasters, natural or man-made."

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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
9 April 2009

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected during April 2009.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions during March 2009 continued to reflect weak La Niña conditions. The monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) remain below-average across parts of the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño-3.4 SST index value persisted near −0.5°C during the month (Fig. 2). Negative subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) weakened further across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. At thermocline depth, positive temperature anomalies in the western and central Pacific expanded eastward, while negative temperature anomalies became confined to the far eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Convection remained suppressed near the Date Line, and enhanced across Indonesia, but weakened during the later part of the month due to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity. Enhanced low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds also decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with a weakening La Niña.
A majority of model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region show that once ENSO-neutral conditions are reached, it will continue through the remainder of 2009. Several models indicate La Niña will continue through March-May 2009 (Fig. 5). Based on current observations, recent trends, and model forecasts, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected during April 2009.
Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña-like impacts are expected to linger during April-June 2009, including above-average precipitation over Indonesia, and below-average precipitation over the central Pacific. Over the United States, La Niña impacts are strongest during the Northern Hemisphere winter and typically weaken during the spring. During December 2008-February 2009, tropical precipitation anomalies reflected La Niña, characterized by a westward retraction of deep tropical convection towards Indonesia, suppressed precipitation centered on the Date Line, and enhanced rainfall over northeastern South America (Fig. 6). In the United States, La Niña was associated with drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of states (extending into California and the mid-Atlantic), and wetter-than-average conditions over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and northern Intermountain West (Fig. 7).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 May 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Taz we may see an offical decloration of neutral ENSO tomarrow when the monthly comes out. I haven't done the math but eyeballing the graph our 3 month average for region 3,4 is looking very close to slightly above -.5




ok sky
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717. Skyepony (Mod)
Hadn't realized the Aussies delayed theirs.. Looks even more likely.
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716. adb42
Severe flooding is reported from northeastern Brazil as a result of sustained heavy rainfall. Looking at the charts, the ITCZ has lain across the region for the last few weeks. Northeastern Brazil is normally very dry - an unusual situation therefore. Anyone care to elaborate?
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Quite a bit of severe weather in alabama this morning with alot of wind damage being reported
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714. Skyepony (Mod)
Taz we may see an offical decloration of neutral ENSO tomarrow when the monthly comes out. I haven't done the math but eyeballing the graph our 3 month average for region 3,4 is looking very close to slightly above -.5
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


The Austrailian Met Office ENSO update was supposed to issue today but has been pushed back until tommorow.......It will probably be confirmation of an Enso Neutral season although there were a few anomolies present last week.....



ok
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Orca I don't no what time your maps from but this is the current surface and their are storms in different areas than on your Googlemap,just trying to help!!!!!this is what I have over the south:Link
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696. Do you mean "interesting" in a good way or a bad way, lol! It's a picture of U of M grads who work at NASA JSC.

700. We've stayed at Motel 6 (Rita) and Super 8 (Ike), so LaQuinta might be a step up.

705. No, this is stinky teeth. When I've had them cleaned before, their breath is quite fresh.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is underway in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Negative equatorial SSTs have weakened considerably since February 2009.
•The patterns of tropical convection and winds continue to reflect weak La Niña conditions.
•Based on recent trends in the observations and model forecasts,a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions will continue


The Austrailian Met Office ENSO update was supposed to issue today but has been pushed back until tommorow.......It will probably be confirmation of an Enso Neutral season although there were a few anomolies present last week.....
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709. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FKPQ31 RJTD 061200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090506/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: CHAN-HOM
NR: 14
PSN: N1430 E11435
MOV: NE 08KT
C: 975HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 06/1800Z N1455 E11520
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 65KT

FCST PSN +12HR: 07/0000Z N1510 E11610
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 07/0600Z N1525 E11710
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 07/1200Z N1540 E11805
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 65KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090506/1800Z =
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45220
708. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON KUJIRA (CAT 3)
21:00 PM JST May 6 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Cyclone Near Ogasawara Shoto

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Kujira (965 hPa) located at 22.6N 141.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving northeast at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 30.3N 146.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 40.3N 155.1E - EXTRATROPICAL
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45220
707. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (CAT 2)
21:00 PM JST May 6 2009
================================

Subject: Category Two Cyclone In The South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (975 hPa) located at 14.5N 114.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm-Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
140 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.7N 118.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.5N 119.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 17.7N 118.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45220
I have no idea Tampa - haven't tried parsley yet...when it gets unbearable, I dump some oxyfresh in his water and you can actually sit near him again. If i don't use it on him, he smells like he's been eating...well never mind...he just smells like he's been eating something DEAD.
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Quoting melwerle:


Hey Tex -

La Quinta takes dogs - it's not the hotel bel air - but it's clean and relatively inexpensive.

For the dog breath after you get their teeth cleaned - try oxyfresh - you can get it from the vet - put it in their water and it makes their breath smell decent. I have a pug that has dragon breath and it even makes him bearable.


I make mine gargle listerine daily.....LOL Kidding aside bad breath usually comes from the Stomach. Someone once told me to sprinkle some parsley in the dogs food and it takes away bad breath and keeps flees away. Never tried it and would not without consulting a Vet. But, found it interesting.
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ENSO ALERT SYSTEM:


El Niño or La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next three months.

El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue.

Final El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued after El Niño or La Niña conditions have ended.

NA: ENSO Alert System is not active.




The Climate Prediction Center defines. . .

"El Niño conditions" as existing when:

A one-month positive sea surface temperature anomaly of 0.5C or greater is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5ºN-5ºS, 120ºW-170ºW) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met AND

An atmospheric response typically associated with El Niño is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean (see The ENSO Cycle).

"La Niña conditions" as existing when:

A one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5ºN-5ºS, 120ºW-170ºW) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met AND

An atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean (see The ENSO Cycle).

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Quoting tornadofan:


At first, I thought you were talking about the Dallas Cowboys.


LOLZ same here...just wasn't going to say it
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is underway in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Negative equatorial SSTs have weakened considerably since February 2009.
•The patterns of tropical convection and winds continue to reflect weak La Niña conditions.
•Based on recent trends in the observations and model forecasts,a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions will continue
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Quoting TampaSpin:
A complete Dome Collapse seems very likely coming very soon with possibly the largest explosion yet with Redoubt.


At first, I thought you were talking about the Dallas Cowboys.
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Quoting TXGulfCoast:
You guys are making me think about this season's storms. I guess I'd better get ready. My hurricane prep list includes the following:

1. Get a list of hotels out of the area that will let me have 3 dogs

2. Get sedatives for dogs

3. Get bordatella shots for dogs (required for kenneling, in case I can't find anything for #1 or in case #2 doesn't work and they go nuts)

4. Get dog's teeth cleaned (b/c there is nothing worse than driving three hours with 3 dogs with stinky dog breath).

5. Figure out what few things I should take since after I pack all the dog stuff there is very little room left for our stuff. Oh, and bring a cooler in case I have to buy groceries out of town to bring back in town.

Once an evacuation is planned, I put up the plywood, pack the dogs and kid, throw my meager belongings in the glove box (it's the only empty space left) and hit the road!

With both Rita and Ike evacuations under my belt, I'm getting pretty good at this.


Hey Tex -

La Quinta takes dogs - it's not the hotel bel air - but it's clean and relatively inexpensive.

For the dog breath after you get their teeth cleaned - try oxyfresh - you can get it from the vet - put it in their water and it makes their breath smell decent. I have a pug that has dragon breath and it even makes him bearable.
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699. Skyepony (Mod)
Here's the pass on Kujira

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A complete Dome Collapse seems very likely coming very soon with possibly the largest explosion yet with Redoubt.
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697. Skyepony (Mod)
cloudsat caught Chan-Hom

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TxGulfCoast--
Interesting avatar pic
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
Morning all :)
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694. Skyepony (Mod)
Morning ya'll. Nasty in the SE. Looks like possible tornado fixin to go N of Birmingham, AL.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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