Volcanic Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

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"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).


Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.


Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.


Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS sniffed out Dean almost 2 weeks in advance so we will see what happens.


And Bertha too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
1883. Drakoen
The GFS sniffed out Dean almost 2 weeks in advance so we will see what happens.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
Are the models picking up on it yet about the
GFS May Hurricane situation?
I think we should give the GFS some credibility for being so consistent with this, and that its now under 200 hours.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
1881. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
we have to wait till end of week i beleive we will get some convection with a waxing and waning daytime heat induce energy with some organization how much organization is the key

we wait and see watch further runs and models for clues
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
Nothing yet on the ECMWF or UKMET.
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1879. Drakoen
This is a pretty strong and impressive phase of the MJO the GFS is showing:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
Quoting hurricane23:
THE MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PANAMA-COSTA RICA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...WE PROJECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.


Is it possible the models notice this moisture and then incorrectly turns it into something tropical?
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1877. Brallan
Quoting Drakoen:
THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA WEAKENS THROUGH 60-72 HRS...WHILE PERSISTING
OVER THE GUIANAS/ EASTERN VENEZUELA. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS RIDGE
ALOFT... AND THE TUTT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...IS TO ALSO INCITE
A SURGE IN ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN-NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF COLOMBIA. FURTHERMORE...THE CLIMATOLOGICAL/ PANAMANIAN
LOW-TROUGH BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH 36-48 HRS...AND
PERSISTS THROUGH 72-84 HRS WITH ANCHORING LOWS MIGRATING TO THE
WEST JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA. FURTHERMORE... THE MJO IS TRENDING
TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (DIVERGENT ALOFT) ACROSS THE
REGION...AND LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THIS CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.


HPC


Makes me believe more and more in the GFS model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PANAMA-COSTA RICA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...WE PROJECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its even showing another one near p.r before the week is out there wioll be 4or 5 then on sun none

lol


It presented the same scenario a couple of days ago.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
1874. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Drakoen:
I see the GFS still remains consistent and has managed to pull the time frame in. Still none of the other computer models show this developing.

its even showing another one near p.r before the week is out there will be 4 or 5 then on sun none

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
1873. Drakoen
THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA WEAKENS THROUGH 60-72 HRS...WHILE PERSISTING
OVER THE GUIANAS/ EASTERN VENEZUELA. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS RIDGE
ALOFT... AND THE TUTT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...IS TO ALSO INCITE
A SURGE IN ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN-NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF COLOMBIA. FURTHERMORE...THE CLIMATOLOGICAL/ PANAMANIAN
LOW-TROUGH BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH 36-48 HRS...AND
PERSISTS THROUGH 72-84 HRS WITH ANCHORING LOWS MIGRATING TO THE
WEST JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA. FURTHERMORE... THE MJO IS TRENDING
TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (DIVERGENT ALOFT) ACROSS THE
REGION...AND LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THIS CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.


HPC
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
1872. Drakoen
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


When I looked at the model it looked like it would have around 85mph winds...please correct me if I am wrong here....


The GFS doesn't have the resolution to determine the exact strength of any system that it forms.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
1871. Patrap
Webcam from 3:22 EST

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Quoting Drakoen:
I see the GFS still remains consistent and has managed to pull the time frame in. Showing a tropical depression forming next week Tuesday or Wednesday. Still none of the other computer models show this developing.


When I looked at the model it looked like it would have around 85mph winds...please correct me if I am wrong here....
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1869. Drakoen
I see the GFS still remains consistent and has managed to pull the time frame in. Showing a tropical depression forming next week Tuesday or Wednesday. Still none of the other computer models show this developing.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
1868. Patrap
In about 15 minutes SJ will be showing fire damage via webcam at the Portlight blog

webcam

StormJunkie is on the scene now.

Portlight SC Wildfire Relief Effort







..earlier via webcam


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1867. Ossqss
Quoting hurricane23:
Things look to be changing.



For some reason this reminded me of the area just off of West Africa in that image.

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Quoting Ossqss:


Kirrily is not looking too healthy.

Link


In addition to its close proximity to the equator, high upper level easterly shear seems to be decoupling it. Easterly is very unfavorable for clockwise rotating cyclones, just as westerly shear is unfavorable for counterclockwise tropical cyclones.

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Things look to be changing.

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1863. Ossqss
Quoting futuremet:


lol, That was about Kirrily

I do not have a lot of data of the west pacific


Kirrily is not looking too healthy.

Link
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Quoting Ossqss:
1853 , you told me you memorized that stuff and had no links :) §


lol, That was about Kirrily

I do not have a lot of data of the west pacific
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
In about 15 minutes SJ will be showing fire damage via webcam at the Portlight blog
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Quoting Ossqss:
1853 , you told me you memorized that stuff and had no links :)


Who me?? no way...I'm in the VERY early stages of learning. Usually I just sit here and read all the posts. Although last year I learned a lot thanks to a ot of PATIENT people on here helping me :)

Oops sorry I seen the 1853 to late..
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1858. Ossqss
1853 , you told me you memorized that stuff and had no links :)

No - not towards you SpicyAngel1072, I was just joking about futuremets comment yesterday on a loop link.
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Are any of the other models showing anything yet or is it to far out for them yet?

Since I am at work... I can't always check all the models even though I have the links.
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Presslord ---that's awesome
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1855. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting weatherblog:
Wow, the GFS is crazy. I'm not sure if I'm reading this right, but it looks like it develops two systems?

One in the Caribbean and one near Puerto Rico?
before the week is out there will be 4 or 5
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
What it means is: we'll do what we can when we can where we can how we can...
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Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
1852. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
The Long Range GFS..


"Ghost Forecasting System"..



ROFLMAO

If within 168 hrs or on Sat = ®¿®
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1850. hahaguy
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
hey now....we have won 6 superbowls...


You know it. I am a fan of steelers,penguins and pirates, No better sports town lol.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
1849. Patrap


UNYSIS 10 Day GFSx
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I guess so far this year the world has been pretty lucky with storms.

The worst one I can think of thus far is Windstorm Klaus.


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1847. Patrap
The Long Range GFS..


"Ghost Forecasting System"..

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1846. Patrap
Swine flu spreading in NYC? Possible new cases probed at second Queens school

New York Daily News - ‎48 minutes ago‎

A possible new cluster of swine flu infections popped up Tuesday at a Queens elementary school for autistic kids.

A team from the city Health Department is at Public School 177 in Fresh Meadows to determine if the swine flu is sickening the students.

The school is fewer than two miles from St. Francis Prep, where more than 100 students and teachers have come down with mild flu symptoms; 28 tested positive for swine flu.

The CDC says 68 Americans have the sickness, which has killed almost 100 people in Mexico.

None of the cases in the United States has been deemed life-threatening.
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I didn't really see anything until later. It really changed course since yesterdays run. It was headed to S FL yesterday and now it is well below.

Can still change as the days go on....
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I'm thinking we could have something in the BOC area around the 5th!!!!
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1843. dsauder
If it is true as stated in the "Volcanoes also warm the climate" paragraph and quoted below, why is anyone in their right mind fussing over a few percent increase in the carbon contribution caused by humans?

"Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project."

I am getting fed up with otherwise intelligent people pushing nonsense like "cap and trade" which will surely only push American manufacturing off shore where cruder technology and less responsible social awareness will surely raise the global carbon footprint and not decrease it.
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1841. Patrap
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Quoting Orcasystems:Does this mean you are branching out and covering the California fires when they happen also?
Just curious, are there any mobile home parks in California? LOL.

I see what you are saying, Orca. Can Portlight cover all and any disasters?.Are we spreading ourselves too thin?

I do not speak for Portlight, but I think under-served is the key word here. Some areas will have resources (such as the Barefoot Resort area in SC). Though we all sympathize with those who lost homes in the Barefoot, they do not need Portlight's help. However, some of those other more rural areas are very, very poor.

Is Portlight relief limited to Gulf Coast/East Coast? I would be surprised if that is the case. Distance from the supply line and volunteers near the area of need might create a hurdle for delivery of supplies. Perhaps Portlight needs volunteers on the West Coast? It seems to me, that one of the advantages of Portlight is the ability to do a quick assessment. Just as there are 'weather spotters', because of the WU community, Portlight has access to on the site assessments.

Excellent questions, Orca. Lots of food for thought.

Again, I do not speak for Portlight - perhaps presslord, stormjunkie or anyone else can correct my errors

Quoting Seastep:Folks just need to stay informed.
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
Avoid those who are sick/coughing
If someone is rude enough to cough in your direction, turn your back on them and step away
Wash your hands- frequently (wash not just pass them under the faucet)
Do not touch eyes, nose or mouth, without washing hands first

Oh yea, we should be doing that any how!
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1838. Patrap
Pittsburgh
US Steel.
Steel Industry.

Bradshaw tossing a Long one... Stallworth has it,touchdown!

Saw That in Super Bowl here,in Tulane Stadium.

Super Bowl IX
Steelers 16, Minnesota Vikings 6
Tulane Stadium, New Orleans, Louisiana
January 12, 1975; Attendance: 80,997

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Wow, the GFS is crazy. I'm not sure if I'm reading this right, but it looks like it develops two systems?

One in the Caribbean and one near Puerto Rico?
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
1835. Ossqss
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
hey now....we have won 6 superbowls...


Yeah, and now I have to fix my Steelers Jacket again, for all the right reasons. One for the thumb has come and now they land on the other hand. :) Go Pens !
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1834. beell
1814.
Well, I think we're getting closer to that first one, 456. To have an African Easterly Wave we have to have the presence of an African Easterly Jet. It has been absent-or at least not extending out over the ATL from the African coast.

Today is different.
Today's 700mb chart from the 12Z GFS

Photobucket
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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