Volcanic Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

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"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).


Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.


Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.


Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

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K hi everyone, this is a quick question... can someone look at Detroit radar and tell me if thats a bow echo or not? And can you tell me fast, because its on my horizon.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
Quoting Vortex95:
Is it possible for anyone to know how strong GFS is predicting this thing to be while we are on this highly theorectical thing.


I'm not that great at reading models, but it looks like (I may be wrong) to be a weak to moderate tropical storm. It looks to be sheared and/or subtropical.
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*
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Is it possible for anyone to know how strong GFS is predicting this thing to be while we are on this highly theorectical thing.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Sheared and Subtropical nature it appears.


Possibly.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Early start for the GFS lol this season....Now you never know with the MJO and slightly lower windshear values it (might) just happen.

Here's youre map at 300 hrs-Need more model support



Sheared and Subtropical nature it appears.
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Once we get to april 30th- may 1 and it still showing somthing of the same on the GFS i'll take it more seriously.
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I think of every season different then the last only coincdences. If this season has the outlook of 2004 it does not mean 4 Hurricanes will hit Fla. I'd say 2 storms tropical or hurricane hitting Fla if that was the case. But even then that is being very generous one small change can send a cat 4 hitting E coast of Fla heading into the atlanic. Just do what we always do prepare for the worst hope for the best.
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Early start for the GFS lol this season....Now you never know with the MJO and slightly lower windshear values it (might) just happen.

Here's youre map at 300 hrs-Need more model support

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
From what I see, the GFS thinks a low will cross over Panama from the Eastern Pacific and then make it's way into the caribbean. The situation reminds of Alma/Arthur. It would also make sense because at the time it crosses over the SST's should be more than ready to support development, plus shear will be low.

If the conditions are right, there will be nothing stopping the storm. There have been plenty of examples of times when storms don't follow climatology. Also, don't forget the GFS nailed the development of Arthur.
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Yeah Drak,..its always a lil aggressive.,Early too.

But the SST's and uppers are looking like late May,or middle May.


Seems like the Atlantic Tropics arent buying calenders this year either.


ESL weekly colored BASIN SST composite,(thru the 21st)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
i'm on my phone currently and can't bring up the model.. Whats it saying
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Don't flame me for this, just my opinion but
looking at how the Bremuda high is suppose to be in shape, and the ENSO situtation.
I no longer think this will be like 2007 in terms of track and storm numbers. Im leaning towards 2004, scary situation And I pray it won't come to it.
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Quoting Cotillion:


And Miami, although they had a 'heart in the mouth' scenario when Ike was pointing right at them at one point - when it was a Cat 3/4, if I recall.

'course, there's the OBX too... unfortunately, only a matter of time before the East Coast gets something again.


Didn't make it any better when they said on TWC that Ike might hit as a Category 5 in Miami/
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lol, Are you kidding me? GFS 12Z

I will be extremely conservative on this until this is about 140hr> forecast

Drak, what is your take on this?
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Quoting Patrap:
GFS sniffing out that solution again Drak.
Interesting as Spock would say.think,just my opinion and gut check,we may early development along or in that area.

That would rattle da masses


Yea. I'm thinking the same thing too. At this point though it's in the GFS la-la land. Wait and see...Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
GFS sniffing out that solution again Drak.
Interesting as Spock would say.think,just my opinion and gut check,we may early development along or in that area.

That would rattle da masses
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
GFS still hinting at long-range development. Still highly skeptical.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
Anytime for the Tazaroo.


Hows the heat the past few days,..?

You getting enough to drink and staying hydrated my friend?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
thanks pat
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Much more on that Taz ,..here.


Results 1 - 10 of about 7,850,000 for Summer coming earlier. (0.26 seconds)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting Tazmanian:
is it me are did summer come sooner this year???


Your a Good observer Taz.
Ive been saying it for 3 years here,as I get input from farmers Globally who are saying the same.

The Human mind grasps what the models sometimes cant.
Thus the advantage of the Human Equation.


Hotter seasons coming earlier, research finds

January 21, 2009
Alvin Powell
Harvard News Office

An analysis of global temperatures between 1850 and 2007 has illuminated some climate change details, showing that winter temperatures have risen more rapidly than summer temperatures and that the seasons are coming nearly two days earlier than they were 50 years ago.

Perhaps most worrisome, however, is that none of the dozens of computerized climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the globe-spanning collaboration of scientists that analyzes climate change scenarios had predicted the earlier seasons.

Were talking about over 60 different models and variants that are sometimes interpreted as showing the range of possibilities. It indicates the models are missing some important process, said Peter Huybers, assistant professor of earth and planetary sciences at Harvard who worked on the research. There could still be surprises.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
I've got a local SWFL twitter spot @ twitter.com/sarasotaweather,Iv'e already made my first TC prediction for next weekend!!!



all are welcome!!!!!
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I've added some graphics to W456's blog as well that may be of interest.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
is it me are did summer come sooner this year???
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Quoting weather24:
Does anyone know where I get archive IR and Vis sat images of past Hurricanes.


LINK

Look at the top left panel and click year.

Alternative
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Does anyone know where I get archive IR and Vis sat images of past Hurricanes.
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A look back at IKE and Portlight.

Help Support the WUnderground sponsored Portlight Destin Dog Walk tomorrow,2-4pm CST



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
I notice that the GFS is still predicting tropical cyclogenesis somewhere in the southwestern or western Caribbean over the coming weeks. If this verifies, it would be nearly a month earlier than Arthur developed last year, which would be a major surprise.

Very interesting.
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Good morning, JFV, nay, good morning everyone!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
The GOM and WEstern Carib. becomes almost Shear free by the end of this month....WOW! This could get very interesting.! Here is a loop!

Link


The WU shear map is better

Go this site

Domain= Tropical Atlantic
Model= GFS
Level= Wind shear
>add map
>Animate


Shear levels are expected to be favorable for tropical cyclogenesis over the next 2 weeks.
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2009 Hurricane Season FAQ/Potential Development in May
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
The GOM and WEstern Carib. becomes almost Shear free by the end of this month....WOW! This could get very interesting.! Here is a loop!

Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:

Speaking of doomsdays.
last year was pretty scary.
New Orleans and Galveston both got hit, Tampa almost did by Fay, only New York was in the clear.


And Miami, although they had a 'heart in the mouth' scenario when Ike was pointing right at them at one point - when it was a Cat 3/4, if I recall.

'course, there's the OBX too... unfortunately, only a matter of time before the East Coast gets something again.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:

Speaking of doomsdays.
last year was pretty scary.
New Orleans and Galveston both got hit, Tampa almost did by Fay, only New York was in the clear.


New York was in the cross hairs for awhile last year, I can't remember which one (KYLE)... but they are over due.

I think (uneducated wild guess) that the east coast florida, north to NY will see more action this year.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
240

That would explain the increasing convective activity in the Caribbean over the next couple of weeks. This could really induce tropical cyclogenesis if shear will be at a conductive level.
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Quoting hurricane23:


No probs man...I only look at it till about 80-100hrs out.Now just waiting for who will get the first cat4 this year.Per the GFS florida gets slammed every year by 10 tropical cyclones.

Speaking of doomsdays.
last year was pretty scary.
New Orleans and Galveston both got hit, Tampa almost did by Fay, only New York was in the clear.
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Quoting futuremet:


lol, I am aware of this

I am just point this out


No probs man...For me 160-190 hrs is as far as i go out.Now just waiting for who will get the first cat4 this year.Per the GFS florida gets slammed every year by 10 tropical cyclones.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
Quoting hurricane23:
Futuremet yea but at 300 plus hrs not likely to verify.Cane season is fast approaching thats for sure.


lol, I am aware of this

I am just point this out
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EWP and GFS showing a pretty potent phase of the MJO moving through the first two weeks of May. With the strongest signal in the Caribbean and GOM.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
Quoting futuremet:
The GFS has been pretty consistent with this...



As I said, GFS last year was pretty accurate if it was presistant, we used to consider it the bible of Cyclone Genisis last year, because it forecasted 70% of the storms to form 2 weeks in advance. Needs model support though.
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It's hard to believe that it's almost a month away.
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Futuremet yea but at 300 plus hrs not likely to verify.Cane season is fast approaching thats for sure.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
good one storm
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Quoting msphar:
Sorry Orca - Got distracted with supper and a hasty toilet rebuild. So I "drifted" down to HD to get the floatie thing that goes inside the tank. So yeah, we "drifted" West already and will fly up Sunday for the week, then off to see the Shuttle launch in mid May, after that then the "drifting" down to PR to set some anchors commences. I'll use my carbon footprint on Jet Blue to begin the drift but I'll finish with an epic eco-paddle from the dock to the mooring ball.


Ahh ok,I thought.. thats a heck of a sail.. it would be fun.. but expensive and long. Where are you going up here?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.