Volcanic Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

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"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).


Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.


Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.


Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

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It begins....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting melwerle:


Ah...now i got it. I am going grab some chips and a drink and watch the show...

very smart.


LOL... I like popcorn better.
The show should begin any second now...
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why would it head toward the equator? Is this an error or will this storm set records?
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I personally am concerned about the swine flu. We've been warned for years about the next pandemic. We were told it's not IF, it WHEN. It seemed the assumtion was it would be bird flu. I'm concerned about the makeup of this strain (human, north american swine, north american avian, and asian swine). And wouldnt be surprised if it was BIO terror. Big Coincident that it came out of nowhere right after our President left Mexico. And I think this will be a concern for along time to come. But we probably won't know how serious this is until next flu season. The 1918 pandemic started in the spring, at the end of the normal flu season, but the second wave in the fall of 1918 that we saw millions die. And the big difference with that early outbreak was it effect the healthy adults rather than very young or old.

Of course techonology and medicine has improved dramatically in 100 years. I believe there will be a vacine for this flu by the fall. But by then it will probably be out of the headlines and many will not take this threat seriously. I know I will be getting any vacine as soon as it is available.
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The last time the Western Pacific had such low activity was back in 2006 when Chanchu formed in early May. They have had only 2 depressions named by the PAGASA but no officiial ones as of yet.
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1078. hahaguy
Quoting futuremet:


It is actually only 78 degrees here in Port St Lucie FL

I like sea breezes


Ya that helps here.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam ready i got my popcorn
sit back enjoy the show


Ah...now i got it. I am going grab some chips and a drink and watch the show...

very smart.
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1076. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
heres a summary of yesterdays weather my station recorded a gust of 93.1 kmh with 56.1 mm of rain

Weather summary for all of southern Ontario and
The national Capital region
Issued by Environment Canada Toronto at 12:33 PM EDT Sunday 26 April
2009.

..The first significant severe thunderstorm event of the year hits
Southern Ontario..

-------------------------------------------------------------
==weather event discussion==
A cold front moved across southern and eastern Ontario Saturday
afternoon along with a spate of severe thunderstorms. Most of the
storms were congregated into a line and fueled by the warmest and
most humid air of the season. They hit extreme southwestern Ontario
between 2 and 3 PM then roared northeastwards at speeds of close to
120 km/h at times. They reached the greater Toronto area around 5 PM
and Ottawa between 7 and 7:30 PM. They also affected portions of
cottage country around Georgian Bay and east. Ontario hydro at 9 PM
last evening indicated upwards of 44,000 customers without power
across southern Ontario with the hardest hit swath from Lambton
county northeast across the north of Toronto to Ottawa. That number
was reduced to around 32,000 without power as of 3 AM.

Following is a preliminary summary of wind gusts and some damage
reports received as of 10 PM last evening. There are no new reports.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Date
Time(lcl) location strongest wind gust (km/h)

3:00 PM Sarnia 96
4:21 PM Muskoka 78
4:27 PM Elora 98
4:30 PM Wellington county 102
4:38 PM Guelph 96
4:42 PM Cambridge 100
5:00 PM Lagoon City 80
5:00 PM Orillia 80
5:00 PM Barrie 91
5:05 PM Toronto Pearson airport 115
(strongest wind gust reported since jan 1978)
5:15 PM Markham (Buttonville) 83
5:17 PM Toronto (Hwy 407/bayview) 111-130 (EST)
5:32 PM Toronto city centre arprt 83
6:00 PM St Catharines 78
6:04 PM Peterborough 89
7:38 PM Gatineau 96
7:22 PM Windsor 94

Damage reports:

2:50 PM marble-sized hail south of Parry Sound
3:00 PM power lines and trees down in and around Sarnia
4:00 PM unofficial sighting of funnel cloud in Huron county
4:00 PM power lines and trees down in Waterloo region
4:10 PM some trees down in Strathroy
4:20 PM power lines and trees down from Stratford to Kitchener
4:30 PM some trees down south of Tavistock (se of Stratford)
4:45 PM numerous and trees down and lamp post down in
Wellington county
4:46 PM possible tornado (unofficial sighting) near Woodstock
5:00 PM some trees down near King City
5 - 6 PM several trees down in and around Toronto with sporadic
Power outages
6:40 PM considerable trees and power lines down in Lanark county
7:40 PM considerable damage to houses just north of Gatineau

Please note that this summary contains the observations at the time
of broadcast and does not constitute an official and final report of
the weather events or the high impact events attributed to the
weather events.

END/OSPC

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
1075. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
iam ready i got my popcorn
sit back enjoy the show
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
1074. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
should be here any minute now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
Keeper is it that time????
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1072. Ossqss
OK, no surprise, youtube has a song called Swine Flu by Tumor Circus. Go figue, CD sales are skyrocketing as I type. They are now up to 14 disks sold world wide. I almost posted it but, could not share that pain. ouch

Have a good night, the clock struck 5 and its time to run.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I think the heatwave in the mid-atlantic and northeast is much more interesting than the swine flu.


I'm sending my storm to NY. I know StormJunkie wanted it in Myrtle Beach, but it's coming to NY instead. Cool temps should be there by Wednesday with rain by Friday :o)
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1069. Ossqss
Did they make any improvements to the GFS this year? I was able to track the upgrades until 2007, then nothing there. Just wondering.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1068. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
14 mins till he rtns wink wink cat lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
1067. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hurricane23:


Again a forcast out at 300+hrs is very unlikely to verify.GFS will do this in its very long-ranges till november.No ensemble support.
myself 23 dont consider it till its at 144 hr out then i might sit up in my chair and get serious
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
Quoting PresidentialElection:
4 hours, 9 minutes and 30 seconds and counting... Till the latest GFS model run comes out.


Again a forcast out at 300+hrs is very unlikely to verify.GFS will do this in its very long-ranges till november.No ensemble support.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
firing up in sw tex moving ne as well now

Yep, Pecos and Terrell counties getting hit.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Its 90+ Degrees in Virgina!
Its hotter up north than in Florida's 87 Degrees!


It is actually only 78 degrees here in Port St Lucie FL

I like sea breezes
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1063. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Its 90+ Degrees in Virgina!
Its hotter up north than in Florida's 87 Degrees!
welcome to july
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
Keeper, ROFL *wink*
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1061. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
firing up in sw tex moving ne as well now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
Its 90+ Degrees in Virgina!
Its hotter up north than in Florida's 87 Degrees!
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1059. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Keeper, yep we'll see. I never thought I be glad I was driving 800 miles with my 7 kids in the car, rather than flying. There's a good reason to avoid airports now it sounds like.

BTW that area NE of Bermuda is building some very nice convection. The storms over OK and KS are the worst I've seen in a while. They are getting hit hard.
yep classic battle of the airmasses
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Quickest 1000 post blog since October over the GFS forecasting a Moderate TS in the Caribbean by May 15th.


I'm not worried about the GFS. I just greeting old friends now before the season really gets underway! :o)
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1057. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
t- 27 minutes till jfv returns

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
Keeper, yep we'll see. I never thought I be glad I was driving 800 miles with my 7 kids in the car, rather than flying. There's a good reason to avoid airports now it sounds like.

BTW that area NE of Bermuda is building some very nice convection. The storms over OK and KS are the worst I've seen in a while. They are getting hit hard.
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Quickest 1000 post blog since October over the GFS forecasting a Moderate TS in the Caribbean by May 15th.
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1054. Ossqss
I don't think we have much to concern ourselves with, just stay clear of folks on vaca in mexico :)

Its the schools that are my concern. You already see it impacting them in NY. We just had an issue here with TB in a High school. I am sure it will be blown up in the media as everything is. I understand that adult beverages can help considerably. I will let you know.

Here it goes. Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1053. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i dunno cat lets wait and see how it all plays out micro-biolgy is not a strong point for me
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
1052. Ossqss
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if its airborne we have 13 weeks till baxter can produce a vaccine


Interesting you mentioned them. Check out one of the sites that referenced them specifically. I guess it takes all kinds eh. This popped from a Google search. Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Keeper, the Tamiflu is working fine, as far as I have read, and provisions from the stockpile are being distributed. I don't know if they'd need to develop a new vaccination.

This site explains influenza evolution quite well. Link. Based on the reaction to the Tamiflu, I think we are looking at a natural evloution of the virus through reassortment and recombination.
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1050. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
for all your swine flu infoLink
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
1049. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Ossgss, all viruses have mutation rates. Just because a virus similar to this has never been spread by human to human contact before doesn't mean it is engineered. Plus if someone were to engineer a virus, you would think they's make one we didn't already have a treatment for. I don't think this is a bio-terrorist attack at all. It is just spreading more quickly and is more deadly in Mexico - particularly Mexico City - because of poverty, living conditions and overcrowding.
if its airborne we have 13 weeks till baxter can produce a vaccine
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
1048. Ossqss
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Ossgss, all viruses have mutation rates. Just because a virus similar to this has never been spread by human to human contact before doesn't mean it is engineered. Plus if someone were to engineer a virus, you would think they's make one we didn't already have a treatment for. I don't think this is a bio-terrorist attack at all. It is just spreading more quickly and is more deadly in Mexico - particularly Mexico City - because of poverty, living conditions and overcrowding.
I completely understand your point, conversely however, it does not eliminate the possibilities. Some of the sites I have checked out are going crazy with it. I just found it quite the unusual coincidence with the Pres. We will have a much better idea of what is going on on Tuesday with respect to WHO and any possible increase in the threat level to 4. We don't want that at all. It does take me back a bit to see the reactions across the globe from a governmental stand point. Check points and all already in place. Lets hope it falls away just like last months big internet virus. It is alway better to be informed rather than suprised.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Ossgss, all viruses have mutation rates. Just because a virus similar to this has never been spread by human to human contact before doesn't mean it is engineered. Plus if someone were to engineer a virus, you would think they's make one we didn't already have a treatment for. I don't think this is a bio-terrorist attack at all. It is just spreading more quickly and is more deadly in Mexico - particularly Mexico City - because of poverty, living conditions and overcrowding.
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Long range GFS is forecasting some favorable to moderately favorable upper-level winds during the beginning of the month of May.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
1045. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
looks to be a bombing system n atlantic ne of bermuda sw of azores just se of the flemish cap
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
1044. Ossqss
Quoting hahaguy:


The Government announced The swine flu as a public health emergency. They will prepare for the swine flu like they do hurricanes.


Check this out. May be more to the bio-terror side of this. Guy died 24hrs after shaking the Pres's hand in Mexico? Interesting. Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1043. hahaguy
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
My neighbors are on vacation in Mexico this week. I think everyone will be avoiding them when they get back...


I would.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
My neighbors are on vacation in Mexico this week. I think everyone will be avoiding them when they get back...
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1041. hahaguy
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Four confirmed cases of swine flu in Canada. Link


The Government announced The swine flu as a public health emergency. They will prepare for the swine flu like they do hurricanes.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
1040. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Four confirmed cases of swine flu in Canada. Link
iam telling cat its going to spread like wild fire watch
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
Four confirmed cases of swine flu in Canada. Link
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1037. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 900MB:
92 degrees in NYC today! That's a record by 8 degrees (and counting).
we were same yesterday like a july day even had a little humid feel to it then the gust front blew pass at 100kmh at about 4 pm that was the end of that
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
1036. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Keeper, I wish we would bounce back that fast. We are only going to get to mid 60's in time for more rain on Thursday - another 5 days of rain. Thank heavens I'm headed someplace that is supposed to be warm and sunny :o)
not good when termps are on the roller coaster ride but it makes great flu weather or maybe i should say swine flu weather
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
Mine wasn't that high but it was reading high finally had to attatch it to the porch where it could get some shade. The station in PC has a radiation shield on it this one doesn't new design or something. I do however like the fact that the anemometer / temp sensors are separate on this so if something breaks it's more easily replaceable.
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1034. 900MB
92 degrees in NYC today! That's a record by 8 degrees (and counting).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.