Volcanic Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

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"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).


Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.


Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.


Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JRRP:
now the system will go to S Fl


Now a Couple days earlier than yesterday the GFS is saying it will form. May 9ish now, next week.
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1333. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Map from Bureau of Meteorology on Tropical Cyclone Kirrily forecast track.

There are warnings/watches but that responsibility lies with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta and apparently BOM doesn't show that on their map.
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1332. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
High Seas (Gale Warnings)
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRRILY CAT 1
4:30 PM CST April 27 2009
===============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Kirrily, Category One (998 hPa) located at 6.5S 134.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

Gale Warning
=============
within 60 nautical miles of center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 5.9S 133.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 5.3S 132.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 4.9S 130.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 5.4S 128.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
========================
Fair position fix based on MTSAT VIS animation and microwave imagery. Satellite imagery indicates tight band curvature and a persistent small CDO. Good outflow is evident in southern and western sectors. Dvorak DT 3.0 from 0.7 spiral wrap. MET and PT agree. The system now has been named TC "Kirrily".

The system has continued moving northwest under the influence of low to mid-level ridge to the SW. The consensus of MWP models indicates west northwest movement over the next 2 days, with steering dominated by a strengthening mid-level ridge to the south. The environment remains favourable with good upper divergence, weak vertical wind shear and deep moisture near the system. A standard development rate is forecast as the TC moves away from the Aru Archipelago, possibly reaching T4.0 within 24 hours. In the longer term, intensification may be hindered by dry air to the west and increasing vertical wind shear as the system moves north of the upper ridge axis.
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Have a good sleep, CDL! Thanks for you input - good stuff! :)
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well, I had better turn in too! Hope to see ya'll tomorrow!

BTW it is now snowing in Denver.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey mlc i added some more info to my blog check it out let me know if there is any errors
later all

Will do, Keep. Thanks.

Have a good sleep, all! :) And, a GR8 Monday and week, too!
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Nite Keeper. See ya tomorrow!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
1327. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
hey mlc i added some more info to my blog check it out let me know if there is any errors
later all
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296


Daily Area of Interest
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Nice info on Vamei, too. Thanks. Interesting stuff!
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1324. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i am off to bed see ya all tomorrow for more of as the model turns
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Keeper you made me LOL so hard I snorted!

Orca, did you notice the storms popping up over Colorado?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
1322. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
orca something happen with your post there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Didn't work
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1320. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JRRP:
now the system will go to S Fl
its heading right to jfv i hope he got his flashlights and batteries

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting emguy:
The GFS model, despite it's consistency in a long term development, is likely presenting a case of convective feedback. This is otherwise referanced as the development of a "Spurious low". This is terminology you will regularly see regarding the GFS long term modeling discussions.

The term refrences the model's long term handling of large thunderstorm complexes that develop in the model. Many times, when a loose area of t-storms covers a large geographic area for an extended period of time, the model tries to handle this by developing an organized system (alas, facilitating simple order to a complex mathematical equation). More times than not, the GFS low ends up with "feedback" or "spurrious" activity to this large and disorganized weather feature,but no organized system ever evolves in the real world.

It is likely that there will be a decent amount of thunderstorm activity through the E-Pac, Central America, and South America during the timeframe depicted by the GFS. Especially if the MJO remains on track. Otherwise, active weather is normally the regime in these parts of the world at this time of year. The GFS is likely showing convective feedback (99% chance). This will not be the last time we see the GFS do this in the long term forecast periods. Nonetheless, it remains an outstanding weather model.


Thanks for explaining the "phantom" storm!
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cool
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114772
1317. JRRP
now the system will go to S Fl
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Yea I remember you have lots of kids...
Heck, just send one! But I'll take them all! LOL

Feel blessed, they talk to you. : ) That is a blessing. Listen, Listen to everything they say and everything they don't say!! Teens are so wonderful!!!!

Long day, dogs are crashed, hubby has hit the sack & I'm going to join the crew,...

Night All!!! Will post video of dog walk News Clip asap!

PEACE -


thank you beach - i figured as much - i hang and listen to evertying. Good kids most of the time and the ones who aren't are weeded out by the good ones.

Night all..bed time for me too.
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Nite, Beach!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
1314. emguy
1305: It is interesting, and you are right, equater storms = very, very rare. Glad to share the info!
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Yea I remember you have lots of kids...
Heck, just send one! But I'll take them all! LOL

Feel blessed, they talk to you. : ) That is a blessing. Listen, Listen to everything they say and everything they don't say!! Teens are so wonderful!!!!

Long day, dogs are crashed, hubby has hit the sack & I'm going to join the crew,...

Night All!!! Will post video of dog walk News Clip asap!

PEACE -
Quoting melwerle:


Beach -you make me smile - i am getting to the point where i complain but i take in the teens for dinner nad juust talks...amazing to hear what they have to say and to have them trust you.
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1312. emguy
The GFS model, despite it's consistency in a long term development, is likely presenting a case of convective feedback. This is otherwise referanced as the development of a "Spurious low". This is terminology you will regularly see regarding the GFS long term modeling discussions.

The term refrences the model's long term handling of large thunderstorm complexes that develop in the model. Many times, when a loose area of t-storms covers a large geographic area for an extended period of time, the model tries to handle this by developing an organized system (alas, facilitating simple order to a complex mathematical equation). More times than not, the GFS low ends up with "feedback" or "spurrious" activity to this large and disorganized weather feature,but no organized system ever evolves in the real world.

It is likely that there will be a decent amount of thunderstorm activity through the E-Pac, Central America, and South America during the timeframe depicted by the GFS. Especially if the MJO remains on track. Otherwise, active weather is normally the regime in these parts of the world at this time of year. The GFS is likely showing convective feedback (99% chance). This will not be the last time we see the GFS do this in the long term forecast periods. Nonetheless, it remains an outstanding weather model.
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Yep, I do! I take all kids, teens, strays or otherwise! Miss the "crazy teen years", "t he college years", etc... I'll take kids any way I can get them! : ) They make me smile........and make my heart feel good. : )


Beach -you make me smile - i am getting to the point where i complain but i take in the teens for dinner and let them talk...amazing to hear what they have to say and to have them trust you.
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Beach - do you remember how many I have? You'd be offering me money to take them back!

I'm glad the portlight walk went well. Who organized it down there? One of my son's has his Eagle Scout project coming up. He and I discussed doing something for portlight, but with us being so far away from the coast and fires, I don't know what kind of response he'd get. Half the people here didn't even know about Ike. It took the Red Cross over two weeks to get signs up around town asking for donations.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Yep, I do! I take all kids, teens, strays or otherwise! Miss the "crazy teen years", "t he college years", etc... I'll take kids any way I can get them! : ) They make me smile........and make my heart feel good. : )
Quoting melwerle:


Oh no - beach..teens...they are alreayd spoiled and you don't want them!!
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Code and SugarSand and Linda from Ft. Walton.... thay did an AWESOME job!!!! and everyone had fun! It was a SMILE DaY!!!
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Beach, been good. The last few days here have had me longing for the tropics. We hit 70's to 80's then had a major cold front and rain come through. Now it is looking like snow tonight. Who in your neck of the woods organized the walk?
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Girl -
You know better than to offer kids to me...... when will they be here & just how "spoiled to you want them?"


Oh no - beach..teens...they are alreayd spoiled and you don't want them!!
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Girl -
You know better than to offer kids to me...... when will they be here & just how "spoiled to you want them?"
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Mel if you or anyone else wants to try out a few more kids, just shoot me an email. I'll loan you mine and they'll probably change your mind :o)
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Quoting emguy:
For those following 27S, here is a history on "equator" hurricanes. One actually did occur in 2001. It was in the Northern Hemisphere, so spun Counter Clock, but formed 150 KM from the Equator in an area that is not too far from 27S (Just on the opposite side). It later peaked around 85 KTS with a defined eye at landfall in Singapore. Here is one of the scientific papers on Typhoon Vamei, many other links and photos on google. Link: http://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/cpchang/papers/vamei/vamei.htm


Great paper, thanks! It does say that it only happens every 100-400 years. The shot of Vamei over the equator is cool!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Mel if you or anyone else wants to try out a few more kids, just shoot me an email. I'll loan you mine and they'll probably change your mind :o)
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting melwerle:


Well ya know - i am thinking of having alot more right now...

forget it...not going there although i could have a hell of alot of fun..


HA HA I hear ya! My 3 about sent me over the edge today. So glad the little angels are asleep now ;)
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Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Hey mel! How are ya? How are those kids?


Well ya know - i am thinking of having alot more right now...nothing would sound beter than Mel with 15 kids...

forget it...not going there although i could have a hell of alot of fun..
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Beach, been good. The last few days here have had me longing for the tropics. We hit 70's to 80's then had a major cold front and rain come through. Now it is looking like snow tonight. Who in your neck of the woods organized the walk?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
1300. emguy
For those following 27S, here is a history on "equator" hurricanes. One actually did occur in 2001. It was in the Northern Hemisphere, so spun Counter Clock, but formed 150 KM from the Equator in an area that is not too far from 27S (Just on the opposite side). It later peaked around 85 KTS with a defined eye at landfall in Singapore. Here is one of the scientific papers on Typhoon Vamei, many other links and photos on google. Link: http://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/cpchang/papers/vamei/vamei.htm
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No flying Rodents! LOL
What a great day!
I can barely hold my head up, exhausted!!! LOL

Hubby recorded the early eventing news thingking "he might see us", but we had no idea that Shadow was going to be a "star"! LOL I thank RaysFan's son was holding him.......

Not sure?
How are you???
Long time no see!
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Mel, I couldn't believe he used the word "chick". I didn't know anyone used that word anymore. Good to see ya tonight!

Beach, nice avatar. Good to see you, too. I watched the webcam of the walk today. Everyone was in shorts, the sun was out and I was very jealous! Any flying rodents lately?
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Mel, I couldn't believe he used the word "chick". I didn't know anyone used that word anymore. Good to see ya tonight!

Beach, nice avatar. Good to see you, too. I watched the webcam of the walk today. Everyone was in shorts, the sun was out and I was very jealous! Any flying rodents lately?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Hey mel! How are ya? How are those kids?
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1296. sky1989
1283-
It looks like the forcast path has it moving, eventually, due west between 3 and 5 degrees South. That is still very close to the equator, however. You are right; I don't think the storm would be able to survive the move across the equator.
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let's not forget me - the chick with three kids in GA...

..soon to be back home in San Diego!!!!!
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Cowboy ---- (dang, I wish I could put a true "southern drawl" on that!) LOL
Everyone was so tired, I don't think pics have been downloaded. However, the TV crew promised us a video! I could not believe that little Shadow, aka, PegLeg, was the STAR! Well, the star behind Portlight.... But he was featured!!! And dog gone it! He is a dog gone cute little poodle!!!! LOL
I'm going to look for a link to the news..........
Quoting moonlightcowboy:

((BFOXX)), glad it went great. Where are the pictures though? Need pics!

btw - hulluva nice avatar! ;P
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Can you believe it they are forecasting snow for me tonight?! I want to let out an aarrgghh like Charlie Brown. So much for a run in the morning!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting TampaSpin:


Wow how you been.....WOW!


Been good TS! And you?

Checked in a few times in the off season, but wasn't quite ready. Still not.. but now NEED to be.
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Sorry, the Navy link was too long. try this Link and click on 27S for a larger thumbnail.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Hi All! Only a few more weeks huh? I thought I'd check in and I see you talking about the possibility of something developing. Guess I'd better check. How has everyone been?


Wow how you been.....WOW!
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Opps.....i missed Beachfoxx also .....Sorry!
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If you look at the track on the Navy site, TC27 is moving in circles. It has a low-level
subtropical ridge positioned to the southwest, the equator to the north and I think a shifting ITCZ impacting it. All these things are pushing and pulling it different directions. Link
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Hi All! Only a few more weeks huh? I thought I'd check in and I see you talking about the possibility of something developing. Guess I'd better check. How has everyone been?
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Wow all the big boys are up tonite....OOPS... and big girls.....Sorry CatastrophicDL....LOL
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Never happened. Can't find a record of it ever. If a hurricane got too close, the equator would kill it. It couldn't spin clockwise north of the equator. The coriolis force would be too weak to keep any rotation going.


Yes, that's what I think also. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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