Volcanic Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

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"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).


Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.


Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.


Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

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1384. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Good morning everyone!

Keeper your blog looks awesome. I read through it last night. Will you be maintaining the same format with each update? BTW thanks for jinxing me yesterday - now I have an upset stomach!
yes it will be maintain for the season ahead with info added as invests and depressions form all thats left to add are some model runs at the top of page and a current storm area which shoulkd be completed by may 15 for epac start

by the killer whale be nice or i will break out the harpoon for you
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Season 2008-2009 Link
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1381. Patrap
Galveston officials learn about hurricane evacuation from Cubans

By HARVEY RICE
Houston Chronicle

HAVANA — Along the Texas Gulf Coast, it’s not always easy to persuade residents to evacuate during hurricanes. But in some places, such as this island nation, people are more willing to follow orders.

Cuba typically fills hurricane evacuation areas with police and military personnel to convince reluctant residents that their possessions are secure. That’s among the lessons that Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas learned this week in a meeting with a top Cuban official.

Thomas discussed hurricane preparedness with Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Foreign Ministry vice minister, for about two hours on the second day of her fact-finding visit to this storm-lashed country.

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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Orca, if I download the free Google Earth will I be able to see the radar images like you have been posting? Or do I have to purchase the Google Earth Pro?


No, you can see it all... I only have the free version
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Orca, if I download the free Google Earth will I be able to see the radar images like you have been posting? Or do I have to purchase the Google Earth Pro?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting NEwxguy:

Sorry,had to say it,but still very early and the Redsox have turned it around,still think the Rays will be back in soon,good division to watch.


Sox always do good in the begining and middle of the season....its the last 4-6 weeks of the season when they usually loose it!!!!
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Good morning everyone!

Keeper your blog looks awesome. I read through it last night. Will you be maintaining the same format with each update? BTW thanks for jinxing me yesterday - now I have an upset stomach!


I wouldn't feel to bad.. people from the Centre of the Universe (Toronto) often have that effect on people :)
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Good morning everyone!

Keeper your blog looks awesome. I read through it last night. Will you be maintaining the same format with each update? BTW thanks for jinxing me yesterday - now I have an upset stomach!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Odd weather this year, we made up the deficit in rainfall over the weekend. Now for two weekends in a row we have had 6-8" of rain in a few hours. Street flooded over the curb each time with no damage in the house. I do have concerns that this heavy downpour is mostly running off and not enough soaking into the ground. Both times the rainfall prediction called for a 20% change of rain. Those 20% rainfalls are killer. They are predicting about 20% chance for the rest of the week.
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1373. Wow...do you think someone might have WARNED people that it was going to happen so they didn't flip out? What a bunch of idiots...whoever was in charge should be spanked.
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1373. Ossqss
Quoting hahaguy:


Who would of thought my pirates are doing better than the rays . LOL


I would have :)

Interesting news blip, people are freaking out in NYC cause military jets are circling. They said it is a foto op for them.

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting NEwxguy:

Sorry,had to say it,but still very early and the Redsox have turned it around,still think the Rays will be back in soon,good division to watch.


Still early but, this could be a do or die weekend for the RAYS as the Sox come into town starting Thursday for a 4 game series! GO RAYS!
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1371. NEwxguy
Quoting TampaSpin:


OUCH ! You just did.......LOL! NO HITTING AND NO PITCHING! Not a good combination for success!

Sorry,had to say it,but still very early and the Redsox have turned it around,still think the Rays will be back in soon,good division to watch.
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1370. hahaguy
Quoting TampaSpin:


OUCH ! You just did.......LOL! NO HITTING AND NO PITCHING! Not a good combination for success!


Who would of thought my pirates are doing better than the rays . LOL
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Hey,Tampa,a couple of weeks ago,you asked what was wrong with my team,I guess I could turn that around today,but I won't.


OUCH ! You just did.......LOL! NO HITTING AND NO PITCHING! Not a good combination for success!
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1368. NEwxguy
Hey,Tampa,a couple of weeks ago,you asked what was wrong with my team,I guess I could turn that around today,but I won't.
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Morning everyone
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Morning all.
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1363. A man in boynton beach died in the currents while rescuing 3 teens. The 3 teens survived, incredible
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1364. Skyepony (Mod)
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1363. Skyepony (Mod)
Been caught in a pressure gradent here..windy. Rip currents are really bad down the east side of Florida. Heard 2 have died so far.
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Quoting vortfix:
Is this your area Keeper?


LEADING BOW ECHO THAT PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.



That would be me... look at post 281... also, that has knocked out my internet... i am at school
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1360. NEwxguy
GM to all,we had a nice summer preview up here this weekend,except for the backdoor cold front that came through last evening
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1359. Skyepony (Mod)
The 00Z GEM just picks up the moisture from the expected MJO up pulse coming through. Shows a pretty strong front picking the moisture up. Little eaaly to buy the gfs story.

As expected a slight cooling in region 3,4 in this weeks ENSO numbers..


If you look at conditions from yesterday it has began warming considerably the last 2 days. A glance at the T-depth anomilies shows alot of very warm water lurking below that has just about finished it's migration across.
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1356. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good day storm i like ya to proof read my blog and see if there any errors or such that need to be corrected if ya get a chance between now and the start of season thanks in advance
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting StormW:
We should begin to see the ENSO 3.4 region begin to warm more over the next few weeks. The strong downward pulse of the MJO in the WPAC will create a burst of westerlies. We should see the SOI drop sharply again when this occurs.


Hi Storm!
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1353. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
once we get something on the surface then i will start to be concearn and again once we get to 144 hrs out then i will be watching more
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Yes, but it is fun to watch it happen every year!
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Wow look at the GFS!
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1349. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its a week and a half out totally unreliable

good morn ike

lol


Good morning KOTG.
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1348. IKE
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Just went through Penn State's E-Wall to check out the latest 00Z ECMWF model for myself. It does show something that could lend some minor support to the GFS. At the 168 hour period, the ECMWF does show increasing low-level vorticity in the SW Caribbean right around the time and area where the GFS does suggest tropical development could occur. I'm not saying that this is great model support, but its at least some minor support to the GFS. Below in the upper right you will see increasing lower level vorticity indicated in yellow and orange in the SW Caribbean.



Maybe it'll start picking up on it. We'll see.
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1347. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
its a week and a half out totally unreliable

good morn ike

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting IKE:
00Z ECMWF shows nothing...Link


Just went through Penn State's E-Wall to check out the latest 00Z ECMWF model for myself. It does show something that could lend some minor support to the GFS. At the 168 hour period, the ECMWF does show increasing low-level vorticity in the SW Caribbean right around the time and area where the GFS does suggest tropical development could occur. I'm not saying that this is great model support, but its at least some minor support to the GFS. Below in the upper right you will see increasing lower level vorticity indicated in yellow and orange in the SW Caribbean.

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1345. IKE
I found it....

"""1312. emguy 11:40 PM CDT on April 26, 2009 Hide this comment.
The GFS model, despite it's consistency in a long term development, is likely presenting a case of convective feedback. This is otherwise referanced as the development of a "Spurious low". This is terminology you will regularly see regarding the GFS long term modeling discussions."""...........


And another tropical season is about to begin. emguy, you're probably right, but...I'll keep looking at the GFS runs.
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1344. IKE
63.3 degrees at my house this morning. Highs today mid to upper 80's.
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1343. IKE
Quoting Vortex95:
A 1004 MB storm makeing a less than 50 miles pass on S Fla. Still 13.5 days away.


How long before someone comes on here and says....

"""It's a week and a half out. Totally unreliable."""

I'm waiting. Heck...I can probably scroll back and find where someone has said it...like none of us realize the odds of the model being correct.
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1342. RTLSNK
57.5* F in Macon Georgia this morning, nice.
92% humidity, what we call "heavy air".
Time to wash the pollen off the harley.
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Pretty bad weather here today, heavyish rain everywhere.. CAPE values are pretty high around Bristol for this time of year too, so could get stormy. Seems worse tomorrow, apparently more conducive to t-storms. Something to keep an eye on.

No real watches or warnings though, so nothing too severe.

(That said, the Met Office wouldn't know a thunderstorm even if it came and ripped the roof off their HQ.)
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1340. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
06Z 348hrs - I just cant buy it....not right now atleast.

2009 Hurricane Season FAQ BBL



Right over the Caymans....
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1339. IKE
00Z ECMWF shows nothing...Link
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Though given the track, perhaps this is more like it:

Link

At least it's not 1908 - two hurricanes before the season even started!
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Wonder if someone's input 1951 into the GFS model runs lately...

Link

(Strongest May storm recorded, I think... in fact strongest off-season storm ever.)

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06Z 348hrs - I just cant buy it....not right now atleast.

2009 Hurricane Season FAQ BBL

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting JRRP:
now the system will go to S Fl


Now a Couple days earlier than yesterday the GFS is saying it will form. May 9ish now, next week.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.