Volcanic Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

Share this Blog
7
+

"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).


Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.


Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.


Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1434 - 1384

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46Blog Index

If they were to do that then all planes would need to be grounded as well. I do not think they would do that unless it got much more serious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
States may be closing State lines soon if this gets out of hand as it appears.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Apr 27, 2:38 PM EDT


NYC mayor says 28 swine flu cases from 1 school

By SARA KUGLER
Associated Press Writer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
may 8th at boca chica noaa won't have far to fly to check out fathom storm from there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Europe Urges Citizens to Avoid U.S. and Mexico Published: April 27, 2009
The number of people killed by the swine flu in Mexico has climbed to 149, up from a toll of 103 over the weekend, prompting officials to shut every school in the country and discuss the possibility of a further shutdown of Mexico City.
As of Monday afternoon, more than 1,600 people in 17 states across Mexico were believed to have been sickened by the virus.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NOAA Hurricane Team Embarks on Atlantic Coast Awareness Tour

Tour Schedule:

Monday, May 4: Pease Air National Guard Base, Newington, N.H., 2:30-4:30 p.m.
Tuesday, May 5: Republic Airport at Farmingdale, N.Y., 2:30-4:30 p.m.
Wednesday, May 6: Raleigh-Durham International Airport, N.C., 3:00-5:00 p.m.
Thursday, May 7: Wilmington International Airport, N.C., 3:00-5:00 p.m.
Friday, May 8: Naval Air Station Key West at Boca Chica Key, Fla., 1:30-4:00 p.m.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
very severe position is about to unfold in the SW Louisiana area. It has a 2300+ CAPE and raising. This could get very severe. Look for this stuff to move Eastward as the evening continues.

I don't know what all that means except "could get very severe." LOL. Just heard the first far away rumble of thunder to my west. Everyone mentions being reminded of last year. I can honestly say this spring is NOT like last year. Don't know if that will mean anything come hurricane season.

Thanks for the warning Tampa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2/3 of the GOM does not meet the threshold of 26.5C or 80deg for anything to develop!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Arkansas will be under the gun late tonite possibly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


That it does. We have had several May months where very heavy weather has come up from the SW Caribbean but none in the last few years. It will be interesting to see if that pattern resurfaces this year.


If I recall, you had some very good observations as to the preveiling trade winds down there last year and the impact on h-season formation....Any idea how they are looking for the Caribbean this year so far?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A very severe position is about to unfold in the SW Louisiana area. It has a 2300+ CAPE and raising. This could get very severe. Look for this stuff to move Eastward as the evening continues.







Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1422. Skyepony (Mod)
Yeah i'd take the rain..

Kirrily just got named.. Can you believe it? Looked netter lastnight, though a quick recovery is forcast..T4 in 24 hrs..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How many hurricanes did they drop drifting buoys in front of last year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Every time I see the GFS run, I'm reminded of last year.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Skyepony:
kman~ Atleast it coensides with the MJO.


That it does. We have had several May months where very heavy weather has come up from the SW Caribbean but none in the last few years. It will be interesting to see if that pattern resurfaces this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We know it will be pleny warm this summer, and perhaps the 80 degree mark will come a little earlier than usual in many areas in the Caribbean and Gulf waters this year.....Condusive SST's will be a given so shear levels, the location of the sub-tropical jet will play a huge factor in an "early season" action.......If Shear also drop significantly over the next three weeks, then we could see a May early TS pop up somewhere closer to home...Just have to wait and see....Way too early to try to get a handle on the Cape Verde season and where shear and SAL levels will be in that region this year....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah a little far out, just tired of saying it. Thought I'd post scary graphics instead..no suprise right for SFL.


If it's still there by the weekend, then the models might be onto something.

The forecasts last year were pretty impressive far out but this is a new year: models alter slightly, the whole set-up changes and the main 'x-factor' changes.

Like last year, MJO was huge - a big factor in what intensified and what didn't as well as the timing. I can't readily recall what actually formed when not under a favourable period of MJO for cyclogenesis.

2007 it was probably the SAL. '06 it was Ioke and El Nino.

Who knows this year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah a little far out, just tired of saying it. Thought I'd post scary graphics instead..no suprise right for SFL.


I enjoyed your graphic and the rain that would come with this system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Although long range forecasts are notoriously unreliable, what is interesting about this is that the unsettled weather that is forecasted by the GFS to be the genesis point for the system is shown as being off the east coast of Nicaragua next week Tuesday.

This is only 8 days away and starting to get close to the time frame where you begin to pay attention to the model runs in earnest.

If we even get the rain that is predicted I would be happy with that.


Yeah rain would be nice for us in Florida too...and if next Tuesday it is still persistent with development...I think we could deffinitely have some potential development to watch for.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1414. Skyepony (Mod)
kman~ Atleast it coensides with the MJO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1413. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Brallan:


Still too soon determinate if it's even going to form. 2 weeks is just too far away.


Yeah a little far out, just tired of saying it. Thought I'd post scary graphics instead..no suprise right for SFL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting largeeyes:
Anyone got current SSTs? The heat here in NC is incredible for April and not a cloud in the sky.

We're going to really need some rain soon.


LINK
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Skyepony:
Yep hits SFL in 2 weeks 2 days...


right after it nails Cuba

Looks like a cape verde trys to form too...LOL


Although long range forecasts are notoriously unreliable, what is interesting about this is that the unsettled weather that is forecasted by the GFS to be the genesis point for the system is shown as being off the east coast of Nicaragua next week Tuesday.

This is only 8 days away and starting to get close to the time frame where you begin to pay attention to the model runs in earnest.

If we even get the rain that is predicted I would be happy with that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone got current SSTs? The heat here in NC is incredible for April and not a cloud in the sky.

We're going to really need some rain soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Rain!

'Earthquake hits Mexico as country grapples with swine flu'

People evacuated buildings and were forced onto the streets, which have been empty of late as civilians try to avoid contact with the flu that is thought to have killed 149 across the country so far.

Early reports suggest the earthquake measured 6.0 on the Richter scale.

Mexico has closed its schools in an attempt to contain the virus.

Ban ki-Moon has warned that the could become a global pandemic as cases have been registered in countries as far apart as the United States, New Zealand and Spain.

Twenty-five cases of possible swine flu have been reported in Britain, the Health Secretary has disclosed.

In a statement to the Commons, Alan Johnson said that three patients were undergoing specialist testing and another 14 were being monitored at home. None has yet been confirmed as suffering from the virus.

Eight people who came forward with swine flu-like symptoms have been shown not to have the condition, which is believed to have killed more than 149 people in Mexico.

There are believed to be 1,614 cases in the Latin American country.

The vast majority of suspected cases of H1N1 have been found in people who have recently returned to their home countries.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has described the situation as a "public health emergency of international concern".

..Link

-- 2 cases of swine flu now reported as positive in Scotland. Up to 25 cases feared, 17 (inc. those 2 I imagine) are being investigated.

Anyone for shares in Tamiflu?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1407. Ossqss
Seems like the entire Pacific plate is having activity, including Cali.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeap, They felt it.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


The Mayans didn't predict doomsday in 2012. It's just a new cycle of the calendar... their proposed doomsday is something like 4772 AD...

Or so I've read from more than one source.


You may be right but I've heard about this for years and just saw it again this past week on some show on Discovery or History Channel....OH well, at the end of the day (literally) it will be Mother Nature that takes us out (as always) and all we can do is to be there to help each other out when natural disasters strike...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Lol...Let's hope the Mayans were not right about the December 2012 doomsday predictions..Yikes


The Mayans didn't predict doomsday in 2012. It's just a new cycle of the calendar... their proposed doomsday is something like 4772 AD...

Or so I've read from more than one source.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Biggest surprise was probably Cortez and his troops landing! Though, apparently it was predicted by the Mayans...



Lol...Let's hope the Mayans were not right about the December 2012 doomsday predictions..Yikes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Closer to Acapulco (50mi NE) actually but a big one, bet they did feel it in Mexico City (145mi S).

Magnitude 6.0 - GUERRERO, MEXICO


beginning to look like apocalypse there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


And the upside of "instant" news through the internet and media....Makes you wonder how people were suddenly surprised (too late probably) back in the day when they had no advance warning to take precautions....Much like hurricane season before the advent of sattelites...........


Biggest surprise was probably Cortez and his troops landing! Though, apparently it was predicted by the Mayans...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1400. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
High Seas (Gale Warnings)
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRRILY CAT 1
10:30 PM CST April 27 2009
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Kirrily, Category One (998 hPa) located at 5.9S 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Gale Warning
=============
within 60 nautical miles of center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 5.0S 132.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 4.5S 131.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 4.2S 129.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 4.8S 128.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
========================
Poor position fix based on MTSAT EIR animation and microwave imagery. Satellite imagery indicates little if any development over the past 6 hours with a persistent small CDO. Good outflow continues in southern and western sectors. Dvorak DT 3.0 from development over past 24h. Local wind obs indicates that RMW
must be quite small.

The system has continued moving northwest under the influence of low to mid-level ridge to the SW. The consensus of MWP models indicates west northwest movement over the next 2 days, with steering dominated by a strengthening mid-level ridge to the south. The environment remains favourable with good upper divergence, weak vertical wind shear and deep moisture near the system for next 24h. A standard development rate is forecast as the TC moves away from the Aru Archipelago, possibly reaching T4.0 within 24 hours. In the longer term, intensification may be hindered by dry air to the west and increasing vertical
wind shear as the system moves north of the upper ridge axis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1399. Brallan
Quoting Skyepony:
Yep hits SFL in 2 weeks 2 days...


right after it nails Cuba

Looks like a cape verde trys to form too...LOL


Still too soon determinate if it's even going to form. 2 weeks is just too far away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That is near Acapulco.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time Monday, April 27, 2009 at 16:46:31 UTC
Monday, April 27, 2009 at 11:46:31 AM at epicenter

Location 17.322°N, 99.326°W
Depth 41.2 km (25.6 miles)
Region GUERRERO, MEXICO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm unable to find the magnitude yet. It just happened. I think the epicenter was outside of Mexico City according to the reports I am seeing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
Now 149 dead in Mexico...

Some cases over here too.

Ah, we now begin to experience the downside of globalisation.


And the upside of "instant" news through the internet and media....Makes you wonder how people were suddenly surprised (too late probably) back in the day when they had no advance warning to take precautions....Much like hurricane season before the advent of sattelites...........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes, strong earthquake just hit the city.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope the swine flu outbreak is brought under control quickly. This could cause major issues if it does indeed turn into a pandemic. At least in the U.S. there have been no confirmed deaths from the flu, at least none that I am aware.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now 149 dead in Mexico...

Some cases over here too.

Ah, we now begin to experience the downside of globalisation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1388. Skyepony (Mod)
Yep hits SFL in 2 weeks 2 days...


right after it nails Cuba

Looks like a cape verde trys to form too...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Afternoon All.....Little over 30 days away from H-Season and I see "regulars" starting to come out on the Blog again more frquently.....Guess we'll be talkin up SST's and the like over the next several weeks...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BREAKING NEWS: NY official says city has 20 more swine flu cases, additional 17 probable cases Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is anyone watching the latest gfs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1384. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Good morning everyone!

Keeper your blog looks awesome. I read through it last night. Will you be maintaining the same format with each update? BTW thanks for jinxing me yesterday - now I have an upset stomach!
yes it will be maintain for the season ahead with info added as invests and depressions form all thats left to add are some model runs at the top of page and a current storm area which shoulkd be completed by may 15 for epac start

by the killer whale be nice or i will break out the harpoon for you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1434 - 1384

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.