Volcanic Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

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"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).


Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.


Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.


Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

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1584. hahaguy
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey thats a thought! Selling man purses with a little Alcohol included.....LOL


Like on Seinfeld, a European Men's carryall. LOL
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
BAseball game coming on......Gotta go. NO fighting...LOL
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1582. Patrap

South Carolina Gov, Mark Sanford, right, is guided through the destruction caused by the wildfire in the Barefoot Resort by North Myrtle Beach Mayor Marilyn Hatley, left, in North Myrtle Beach, S.C. on Friday, April 24, 2009. 70 homes were completely destroyed. (AP Photo/Alice Keeney)


Beach still home despite hurricanes, now wildfire

By BRUCE SMITH – 2 days ago

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (AP) — They flock from other states and climes to the coast known as the Grand Strand, first as tourists, and later as residents, captivated by ocean views, rolling green fairways and the relaxed lifestyle. Most knew that an occasional hurricane was part of the bargain but didn't expect a different danger — a raging wildfire like the one that destroyed 70 homes this week.

"I always said if we lose this house it will be a hurricane," said 60-year-old Kathy Horvat, standing Friday outside her home in the Barefoot Resort. Just down the road, police at a checkpoint allowed no one but residents back into the most heavily damaged part of the resort. "It never occurred to me, never, that there might be a fire like that which just went through."

The fire early Thursday devastated a nearby part of the resort, forcing thousands to flee and leaving damage which, in some ways, resembled the aftermath of a hurricane.
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Evening, all. I was wondering if our phantom storm had achieved CAT 5 status yet. Any updates? ;P Is it gonna hit FL? Or NOLA? LOL

Y'all have fun! Play nice!
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1580. Ossqss
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey thats a thought! Selling man purses with a little Alcohol included.....LOL


I am interested if there is a man purse beer cooler available.
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:


Something I don't think I've even seen - grown men (other than medical workers) using hand sanitizer in public. Are you going to carry it in a man purse LOL :o) I hope you know I'm kidding! :o)


Hey thats a thought! Selling man purses with a little Alcohol included.....LOL
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I won't panic over the swine flu yet. In the U.S. it appears to be just like a normal flu - no deaths reported yet. Now if people in the U.S. start to die over this, then I'll get concerned. Today I went out and bought some hand sanatizer to carry around with me so every time I'm in public I use it.


Education and preventitive things will go a long way.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:

I'm guessing swine flu. We'll probably have to wait until maybe August for a cat. 1 in Florida, while swine flu could arrive there within a week (it's progressing pretty fast, I just heard about it on Saturday and now it's pretty much knocking right next door).


I'd rather take the hurricane.
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:


Something I don't think I've even seen - grown men (other than medical workers) using hand sanitizer in public. Are you going to carry it in a man purse LOL :o) I hope you know I'm kidding! :o)


Yes, I think I will! J/k

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Quoting CaneWarning:
I won't panic over the swine flu yet. In the U.S. it appears to be just like a normal flu - no deaths reported yet. Now if people in the U.S. start to die over this, then I'll get concerned. Today I went out and bought some hand sanatizer to carry around with me so every time I'm in public I use it.


Something I don't think I've even seen - grown men (other than medical workers) using hand sanitizer in public. Are you going to carry it in a man purse LOL :o) I hope you know I'm kidding! :o)
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting 7544:
what will hit fla first the swine or a cat 1 hurricane .

I'm guessing swine flu. We'll probably have to wait until maybe August for a cat. 1 in Florida, while swine flu could arrive there within a week (it's progressing pretty fast, I just heard about it on Saturday and now it's pretty much knocking right next door).
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1572. Patrap

Hurricanes and tropical storms kill or damage, on average, about 97 million trees per year. Regions shown in red experience tropical-storm strength winds about once every three years; those colored green suffer such storm-related winds, on average, less than once each century.
Credit: MAP: Zeng et al.

Climatic effects of tree-killing hurricanes

Storm damage returns millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide back to the atmosphere each year.

By Sid Perkins
Web edition : 4:55 pm

Hurricanes and tropical storms kill or damage millions of trees in the United States each year, and that fallen wood and vegetation decomposes, returning more than 90 million metric tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere annually, researchers report.

Since 1851, hurricanes or tropical storms have caused damage along the Atlantic seaboard or Gulf Coast in every year except one. These storms, besides causing innumerable deaths and destroying human-built structures, have repeatedly pummeled wide swaths of coastal forests as well as large numbers of inland trees, says Hongcheng Zeng, an ecological geographer at the University of Windsor in Canada.

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1571. Ossqss
1563 yep and schools.
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I hope people don't get too paranoid about this, like having the sniffles and thinking its swine flu and causing clutter in the emergency room for the people that really need help.. And as far as not letting state to state travel, i don't think it would come down to that.. But i would like to find that news report and send it to my wife since she pp supposed km fly to chicago next tuesday to see her mom.. I'd like to scare her a little lol
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I won't panic over the swine flu yet. In the U.S. it appears to be just like a normal flu - no deaths reported yet. Now if people in the U.S. start to die over this, then I'll get concerned. Today I went out and bought some hand sanatizer to carry around with me so every time I'm in public I use it.
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Quoting hahaguy:


Watch Shaun of the Dead . LOL


LOL!!!!!!
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
1567. 7544
what will hit fla first the swine or a cat 1 hurricane .
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Cases are now being reported in North Carolina
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1565. Patrap
For perspective,the Flu,or Influenza claims 32,000 Lives a year on average in the US.

It also hospitalizes over 200,000 as well.

That's averaging 87 deaths per day Nationwide
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Death toll raised to 169, and now there are over 34 cases in Canada, with over 12 possible cases in Ontario (the province where I live, bad news for me). Some thunderstorms expected to arrive here tonight and tomorrow (yes, the same front producing tornadoes and hail in the US). I'm going to watch the models for that Carib storm over the next several days, to see if it persists.
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Quoting Ossqss:
Tampa, you recieved many vaccines while growing up in the US. That builds up your immune system to fight viral infections, that antibiotics are not affective against. Bacterial type infections are the only thing that antibiotics work on. Viruses are unaffected by them. If you look in Mexico, it seems the youg have been affected more negatively and it is deduced that the older folks have a somewhat more built up immune system from prior sicknesses from viruses. In other words, your body has been trained prior so that it helps you fight new attacks more effectively. Everyone reacts to different illnesses differently. This is just a general view.


Understand all of that, which i already knew. Question, could it be infecting the younger because of a more active lifestyle. They are in the crowd where the adults are more stay at home people. Just my take the young are at a higher risk because of interactive social life style. Been in the medical environment for a long time....LOL
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1562. hahaguy
Quoting Ossqss:


Andromeda Strain !


Watch Shaun of the Dead . LOL
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
1561. Ossqss
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I might have to rent and watch Resident Evil tonight...


Andromeda Strain !
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I might have to rent and watch Resident Evil tonight...
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1558. Ossqss
Tampa, you recieved many vaccines while growing up in the US. That builds up your immune system to fight viral infections, that antibiotics are not affective against. Bacterial type infections are the only thing that antibiotics work on. Viruses are unaffected by them. If you look in Mexico, it seems the youg have been affected more negatively and it is deduced that the older folks have a somewhat more built up immune system from prior sicknesses from viruses. In other words, your body has been trained prior so that it helps you fight new attacks more effectively. Everyone reacts to different illnesses differently. This is just a general view.
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If we use that definition, then we have been at level 5 a few days now already.
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1556. Ossqss
Hummm, here is level 5. Looks like we are probably already there. Canada, US, Mexico, UK, Spain, I dunno.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

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If it were June-November, I would of been on the GFS like that (snap figures) but it's May 11...lol. The last time this happen was Subtropical Storm Andrea in May 2007 and before that Tropical Storm Ana in April 2003. In both cases the tropical cyclone had a baroclinic origin which is reasonable for the time period of formation but this is a full tropical cyclone. Even the GFS last year was more reasonable.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
did our Tropical Cyclone break the equator record??
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Quoting Ossqss:
Level 4 item, from the list.

Remember the words, Rapid Pandemic Containment Operation. That may be in the news shortly, in particular in Mexico. Be glad you got all your shots when you were a kid, it is helping Americans now. :)


Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause %u201Ccommunity-level outbreaks.%u201D The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.



HOW would our childhood shots help us with this Virus. I don't think that would held stop a Virus today that we did not know from years ago.....Please explain!
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Quoting futuremet:


What is the lowest pressure near the center according to ACWPRO?


1005 mb at 168 hrs
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1550. JRRP
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS still has trouble pulling up that long-range system into a reasonable time frame. Some of it looks QPF bomb-induced.


it´s beginning rotating in 168 hr
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Quoting Weather456:
I realize the GFS has a disturbed area within 168 hrs as a tropical depression.


What is the lowest pressure near the center according to ACWPRO?
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1545. hahaguy
Quoting Weather456:
I realize the GFS has a disturbed area within 168 hrs as a tropical depression.


I'll tell you what the gfs isn't giving up lol.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
I realize the GFS has a disturbed area within 168 hrs as a tropical depression but I'm not 100% confident until the MJO arrives. I want to believe there is something either wrong with the model, the time frame is off, maybe picking up a moisture surge instead of TC or its in the Eastern pacific. Atleast those would make more logic.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1543. Ossqss
Level 4 item, from the list.

Remember the words, Rapid Pandemic Containment Operation. That may be in the news shortly, in particular in Mexico. Be glad you got all your shots when you were a kid, it is helping Americans now. :)


Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause %u201Ccommunity-level outbreaks.%u201D The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
So is the GFS storm in 12 days still being forecast or not?


Hopefully this is what happens, we desperately need the rain here.
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Quoting Ossqss:
Tampa, did you get any Tamiflu for the JAVA issue you had :) or did ya back it down a level?


Tried it today....i just can't open that file for some reason. Not been able to figure it out. Thats the only file i have not been able to open that others can. I just don't understand it.....it has to be IE8
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1539. Ossqss
Tampa, did you get any Tamiflu for the JAVA issue you had :) or did ya back it down a level?
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Quoting Ossqss:
Be ready for this part of the flu issue. It is sure to follow accrodingly. Be ready for the millions of forwards coming to your PC shortly. Don't be too quick to click !

Computer viruses may lurk in swine flu e-mails


You was right on about level 4 it was upgraded!
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1537. Ossqss
Be ready for this part of the flu issue. It is sure to follow accrodingly. Be ready for the millions of forwards coming to your PC shortly. Don't be too quick to click !

Computer viruses may lurk in swine flu e-mails
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Quoting Clickerous:
1530. Maybe the world record holder for asking the most repeated guestions lol


LIKE "What do you think DRAK".....LMAO
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Quoting hurristat:


The point of that is to show that people need to relax about this... that for most people, this is not an issue...


Shakes head side ways while smiling!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron