Volcanic Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

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"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).


Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.


Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.


Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

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1834. beell
1814.
Well, I think we're getting closer to that first one, 456. To have an African Easterly Wave we have to have the presence of an African Easterly Jet. It has been absent-or at least not extending out over the ATL from the African coast.

Today is different.
Today's 700mb chart from the 12Z GFS

Photobucket
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
Ok I ahve to agree this year's was something. I thought for sure we lost when I seen that run from #11 (name?).

That tax really isn't going through is it??

I would love some nice thunderstorms here in florida.....
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
hey now....we have won 6 superbowls...


Umm superbowl? whats that?
Holds more Wheaties then your average bowl?
Does Lord Stanley know what it is?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Thanks!
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1830. Patrap
On Tuesday April 28th, Portlight Strategies will be delivering supplies to a rural community which lost 13 homes in the Myrtle Beach wildfires. Please join us via the webcam

StormJunkie is on the scene now.


Portlight SC Wildfire Relief Effort






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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
hey now....we have won 6 superbowls...


Won? Debatable...

But anyway, Obama's bringing in a new tax. Superbowl Tax. Have to give two of them up to the less fortunate... like the Detroit Lions.

Be a good samaritan. :)

Heavy rain warnings being issued for the midlands and north east. Thunderstorms going off in the south and midlands in the past hour or so.
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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On the phone with StormJunkie.
He is taking a family who lost their home in the S.C fires to lunch.
They are going to talk over what Portlight can do to help them.
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Quoting weatherblog:
If someone nice doesn't mind, can you give me a link to the GFS 12Z? Thanks!


LINK
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
If someone nice doesn't mind, can you give me a link to the GFS 12Z? Thanks!
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1824. Seastep
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
hey now....we have won 6 superbowls...


Amen!
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hey now....we have won 6 superbowls...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Because it's much ado about mostly nothing. And because I (barely) remember the last swine flu foofooraw Link



Ahhh thats a mistake... its much ado about nothing... but if you do not take simple personal precautions... it could be.

Knowledge is power.... ignoring that knowledge.. is just plain stupid.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Press & Pat - not if one doesn't eat pork rinds! :o)

Flu, schmoo, I'm headed toward the Mexico border on Friday with my children. Every year this time, there are bad cases of the flu. Being called swine flu doesn't necessarily make it any worse this year.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
1819. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
I am becoming increasingly confident that this feature is a tropical wave. But'll wait for this evening to confirm it.



impressive wave
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Quoting Seastep:
Here's a good article for perspective.

Should there be concern and CDC, etc. keep an eye on it. Yep. That's their job.

The panic and hysteria from the media? Nope. Is it possible? Yes. Likely? Not even close.

Link


Good article. Glad to see there's at least some decent ones... not all are hysteria peddling journalists.

..And boo! Steelers. :(

Dark, grey, wet and cold here. British weather, how I love you.

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1817. JRRP
12Z GFS show two Lows very separated
it´s rare
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1815. beell
That foofaraw was a little different-yes?

...By the end of January, 155 soldiers at Fort Dix reported positive for swine flu antibodies. None of the soldiers' families or co-workers, however, had been exposed to the virus; all of the reported swine flu cases had been limited to the soldiers in Private Lewis' camp. The virus wasn't spreading. For some reason this information did not mollify the doctors, and on Feb. 14, 1976, the CDC issued a notice to all U.S. hospitals to be on the lookout for any cases of swine flu.

By March, the normal end of flu season, worldwide cases of all types of flu had diminished, and not one case of swine flu had been reported outside of Fort Dix. For some reason this news did not placate the doctors either, and on March 13, 1976, the director of the CDC asked Congress for money to develop and test enough swine flu vaccine to immunize at least 80 percent of the population of the United States, believed to be the minimum needed to avoid an epidemic...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
I am becoming increasingly confident that this feature is a tropical wave. But'll wait for this evening to confirm it.


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Patrap:
I gotta agree with ya on the hype Orca.

One has a better chance of choking on a Pork Rind than croaking from the Swine flu.


Exactly...
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Sorry Orca....I am a Penguins fan through and through. Even more so than Steelers.


OK, so they will have to go to Pittsburgh later... not a big deal. They have to go thru Detroit first.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
1810. beell
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
OK is the GFS May hurricane still on? The flu bores me, btw.


Ok, I'll bite.
Why does the flu bore you?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
1809. Patrap
38 years ago..


"There's a Fire,sir.."

..."you will be briefed at the appropriate time."


The best-selling novel by Michael Crichton was faithfully adapted for this taut 1971 thriller, about a team of scientists(Arthur Hill, David Wayne, James Olson, Kate Reid and Paula Kelly) racing against time to destroy a deadly alien virus that threatens to wipe out life on Earth.



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Actually, L.A. Times has a story on its website saying C.C. has given 2 specimens to health officials belonging to 33 yr old man who passed away Monday and 45 yr old who passed April 22. Both had symptoms similiar to swine flu. Nothing official yet. Also Al. health officials are testing 9 possible cases, again nothing official. I'm currently going state by state checking and will post anything i find not reported in mainstream media yet. I haven't figured out how to post yet but if you go to latimes.com you'll see it.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


They only have to go to Chicago once to wrap it up :) then they get a nice 1 week vacation till the next round :)


Sorry Orca....I am a Penguins fan through and through. Even more so than Steelers.
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1806. Seastep
Here's a good article for perspective.

Should there be concern and CDC, etc. keep an eye on it. Yep. That's their job.

The panic and hysteria from the media? Nope. Is it possible? Yes. Likely? Not even close.

Link
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Quoting Ossqss:
Orca, you better keep those Canucks in quarantine before the next sieries :)


They only have to go to Chicago once to wrap it up :) then they get a nice 1 week vacation till the next round :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
OK is the GFS May hurricane still on? The flu bores me, btw.


12Z GFS, basically yea but I wudnt say Hurricane.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1802. 7544
false alarm in orlando no cases in fla so far stay tuned
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1801. Seastep
Folks just need to stay informed.
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1800. Seastep
Quoting Patrap:
Perspective is urged in my view,..the Flu kills an avg of 32,000 in the US per year and Hospitalizes over 200,000.

Thats like 87 Flu-related deaths per day.

Common sense and sanitary hygiene is urged for all to consider.
The relevant info on the Swine flu is easily accessible to everyone.

Folks should take precautions and limit their contacts with in reason if possible.


Agreed in terms of "see what happens." Nothing so far to go nuts about.

Want there to be no doubt that there is nothing to date for people to go crazy about.

But, there is a slight difference and why there is greater concern. Those 32K are either very old or very young. Not 24-45 year old range as is happening in Mexico.

Again, no deaths here at all and, I believe, only a single hospitalization, so just need to keep an eye on it.

Again, the reason there is more concern over this one is the age of those that have died.

Like this chart, just as an illustration of the difference between normal and pandemic.

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1799. Ossqss
Orca, you better keep those Canucks in quarantine before the next sieries :)
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1798. Ossqss
Link
Quoting Patrap:
Perspective is urged in my view,..the Flu kills an avg of 32,000 in the US per year and Hospitalizes over 200,000.

Thats like 87 Flu-related deaths per day.

Common sense and sanitary hygiene is urged for all to consider.
The relevant info on the Swine flu is easily accessible to everyone.

Folks should take precautions and limit their contacts with in reason if possible.


Pat is correct, be smart and informed = safer !

If interested here are specifics on the reference to flu deaths. Like any stat it is subject to scrutiny in the details.

Questions and Answers Regarding Estimating Deaths from Influenza in the United States
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1797. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1500z 28APR)
============================================
An area of convection (95W) located at 7.3N 138.6E or 140 NM south-southeast of Yap. Recent animated infrared imagery shows a broad circulation associated with an organizing low level circulation center. A 1022z SSMIS image shows fragmented deep convective banding wrapping into a poorly organized low level circulation center. Environmental analysis indicates the system is in an area of low vertical wind shear, favorable total percipitable water and high sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level prsesure of 1010 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
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Quoting Patrap:
I gotta agree with ya on the hype Orca.

One has a better chance of choking on a Pork Rind than croaking from the Swine flu.


Agreed.. those little suckers have to be washed down with beer
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
1795. Patrap
I gotta agree with ya on the hype Orca.

One has a better chance of choking on a Pork Rind than croaking from the Swine flu.
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Quoting Patrap:
Perspective is urged in my view,..the Flu kills an avg of 32,000 in the US per year and Hospitalizes over 200,000.

Thats like 87 Flu-related deaths per day.

Common sense and sanitary hygiene is urged for all to consider.
The relevant info on the Swine flu is easily accessible to everyone.

Folks should take precautions and limit their contacts with in reason if possible.


Thank you for the sanest post I have seen on this in days... on almost any blog. I have seen people go as far to say.. close down the borders stop everyone and anyone from moving.

Folks, the Genie is out of the bottle.... common sense and proper precautions will keep you safe. Mass hysteria and knee jerk reactions only make it worse.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
1793. Patrap
Here's a relevant to the Entry Video,chosen for your consideration..


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1792. Patrap
Perspective is urged in my view,..the Flu kills an avg of 32,000 in the US per year and Hospitalizes over 200,000.

Thats like 87 Flu-related deaths per day.

Common sense and sanitary hygiene is urged for all to consider.
The relevant info on the Swine flu is easily accessible to everyone.

Folks should take precautions and limit their contacts with in reason if possible.
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Quoting presslord:
and, as a side note which justifies our mission of serving the unserved, under served and forgotten people...a ton of informationn is available to us regarding the impact at Barefoot...virtually none is available regarding the less well heeled victims...so SJ will be doing some needs assessment...


Does this mean you are branching out and covering the California fires when they happen also?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey Pat; I spoke about keeping to the Weather yesterday but this is pressing problem; I just received an uncomfirmed report that a swine flu victim has been identifed in Orlando Florida (the first case so far, if confirmed, in Florida)....A toursit at Disney World from Mexico.....Not sure if this will be confirmed through the media later but I would imagine that the woman has been quarantined, but, this may not be helpful to the visitors who may have had contact with her at the Park..


Its all over the drudge report... its confirmed

Swine Flu Case Confirmed In Orlando
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Patrap:

A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak
By The Associated Press | Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Story last updated at 4/28/2009

A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak:

- December 2005 to January 2009: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention receives reports of 12 cases of human infection with swine flu. Five of these 12 cases occurred in patients who had direct exposure to pigs and six reported being near pigs. Exposure in one case is unknown.

- March 28: Believed to be the date of the earliest onset of the swine flu cases in the U.S., Dr. Nancy Cox of the CDC said in an April 23 press briefing.

- April 2: A 4-year-old boy contracted the virus before this date in Veracruz state, Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova later said citing test results. A community in Veracruz has been protesting pollution from a large pig farm.

- April 6: Local health officials declare a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in the Mexican town of La Gloria in Veracruz state. Health officials record 400 cases of people who sought medical treatment in the previous week in the town. About 60 percent of the town of 3,000 are affected.


Hey Pat; I spoke about keeping to the Weather yesterday but this is pressing problem; I just received an uncomfirmed report that a swine flu victim has been identifed in Orlando Florida (the first case so far, if confirmed, in Florida)....A toursit at Disney World from Mexico.....Not sure if this will be confirmed through the media later but I would imagine that the woman has been quarantined, but, this may not be helpful to the visitors who may have had contact with her at the Park..
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1788. Ossqss
Here we go.

Such community transmission is one of the early earmarks of a pandemic, and if it continues to be observed, experts predicted, the World Health Organization is likely to raise its alert level to Level 5, from the currently elevated Level 4. Such an increase might involve more travel restrictions and stronger efforts to control the spread of the virus.

New swine flu cases reported around the globe
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Quoting stillwaiting:
NEwx:getting kinda hott kinda early up there this year???,lol,I grew up in Ledyard,CT I don't remember it getting that hot back then,I lived their for 14yrs.....94 for a high in boston metro!!!!


94 in APRIL?? I grew up in Boston and wouldn't expect to see a 90 till July!
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Cat...very cool...we're going to an Eagle Scout ceremony Sunday for a friends' son who did his project with us...
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1785. Patrap

A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak
By The Associated Press | Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Story last updated at 4/28/2009

A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak:

- December 2005 to January 2009: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention receives reports of 12 cases of human infection with swine flu. Five of these 12 cases occurred in patients who had direct exposure to pigs and six reported being near pigs. Exposure in one case is unknown.

- March 28: Believed to be the date of the earliest onset of the swine flu cases in the U.S., Dr. Nancy Cox of the CDC said in an April 23 press briefing.

- April 2: A 4-year-old boy contracted the virus before this date in Veracruz state, Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova later said citing test results. A community in Veracruz has been protesting pollution from a large pig farm.

- April 6: Local health officials declare a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in the Mexican town of La Gloria in Veracruz state. Health officials record 400 cases of people who sought medical treatment in the previous week in the town. About 60 percent of the town of 3,000 are affected.
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1784. Patrap


Swine flu precautions taken

By Kristen Hackney-redman | AVALANCHE-JOURNAL

Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Story last updated at 4/28/2009 - 1:42 am

Area and state health officials are working to prepare for the possibility of an outbreak of swine flu in Lubbock and the South Plains.

Sandy Fortenberry, public health preparedness coordinator for the city of Lubbock Health Department, said the agency is working with the Texas Department of State Health Services through conference calls to keep up-to-date on the latest information regarding swine flu. The department is also working with area health care providers to keep them up-to-date and to answer their questions about swine flu, she said.

"Since 2003, we have been developing pandemic influenza plans and we have been training and exercising on mass prophylaxis, so I think, as a city, we are very well prepared for a public health threat such as this one," Fortenberry said.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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