La Niña conditions end; 10th warmest March on record for the globe
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and deep water temperatures have warmed significantly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific over the first two weeks of April, and La Niña conditions are no longer present. While NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has not yet declared an end to this La Niña episode and dropped their La Niña advisory, it is very likely that the La Niña event that began in December 2008 is now over. The big question is whether an El Niño event will rapidly form in its place, in time for hurricane season. This did happen after the 1976 La Niña, which ended in April, with a weak El Niño beginning in September. However, it can take a few months for the atmosphere to adjust to the formation of a new El Niño, and there is no guarantee that a weak El Niño for the coming hurricane season would act to dramatically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity.The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds. Nearly all the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Four out of 21 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season; three are predicting a La Niña, and fourteen are predicting neutral conditions.
Figure 1. The difference of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for the Niña 3.4 region of the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W). La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the Niña 3.4 region cools below -0.5°C. La Niña conditions began in December 2008 and ended in late March 2009. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Tenth warmest March on record for the globe
Global temperatures remained about where they've been the past two years, with the planet recording its 10th warmest March on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - March was the eighth warmest such period on record.
An average March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., March temperatures were the 51st warmest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month had near-average precipitation, ranking as the 42nd wettest March. Three states (Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey) experienced their driest year-to-date period ever. In neighboring states, Pennsylvania recorded its second driest year-to-date period and Massachusetts and West Virgnia experienced their fourth and fifth driest, respectively. The below-normal precipitation averages led to the driest ever start to the year for the Northeast region. Record amounts of snow fell in North Dakota during March. Fargo received 28.1 inches, which was nearly 2 more inches than the previous March record set in 1997. Fargo also recorded 4.62 inches of precipitation which set a new monthly record. Runoff from the record precipitation led to the highest flood levels ever observed on the Red River in North Dakota. The river crested in Fargo at a record level of 12.4 m (40.8 feet), shattering the previous record of 12.2 m (40.1 feet) set in 1897.
Through March, the U.S. has only seen about 50% of normal tornado activity for the year, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. There were just 9 tornado deaths through March, compared to 70 deaths through March of 2008, and the 3-year average of 44 deaths.
On April 14, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 21% figure observed January through March.
Bahamas 2009 Weather Conference
This week, many of the world's hurricane experts are gathered at the Bahamas Hurricane Conference. Check out their web site for short videos by some of the presenters. The 3-minute talk by NHC Director Bill Read and former NHC Director Max Mayfield on the inadequacy of our familiar Category 1-2-3-4-5 Saffir-Simpson scale is interesting. They make the point that no one scale will ever be able to capture the threats a hurricane poses, since these depend greatly on exactly what track the storm takes, and our forecasts will never be able to precisely pinpoint the track. Thus, introducing a new scale to quantify storm surge risk is not a complete solution to the inadequacies of the Saffir-Simpson scale. Coastal residents need to heed the detailed wind and storm surge forecasts for their area, regardless of what Category storm is approaching.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Quoting Orcasystems:
ROFLMAO, maybe your spreadsheet can tell you?
Wait a minute, let me recalculate using a proven method.
Always nice to see you 2 have fun at my expense.....LOL
You have that bookmarked, don't you
All proceeds, except some, go to the voted on Hurricane relief effort. Hummm, could work and make the season a bit more interesting for all participants. Just my take. Any takers? or thoughts...... L8R
I would say that 640 deserved a reply
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2009 total: 96 days (88%)
Since 2004: 607 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
Aren't we going to get a sunrise warning also??? lol
While it's true that Haiti residents frequently get killed from even a tropical disturbance, it's equally true that a majority of the disasters there don't kill over 500 people like Hanna did. That, to me, automatically merits its retirement, even if Haiti is heavily deforested and vulnerable to flash flooding.
Paloma? Eh...I wouldn't bet on it, for the simple fact that damage in the Caymans was minimal [read: compared to what it could've been], and though the impact in Cuba was severe in some areas, it degenerated much too quickly after its Cuban landfall to cause any extensive damage over a prolonged period.
Yeah, they did.
Gustav and Ike are near certs, Hanna is a possible third. Think that'll be it. Though, Dolly's more likely to be retired than Fay considering the damage it caused.
The season could've been worse, true, particularly if Gustav and Ike didn't weaken prior to U.S. landfall.
Both hurricanes were actually getting better organized before landfall, as evidenced by radar and satellite imagery.
We're lucky that they moved inland when they did -- and they were still very destructive, despite both being only of Category 2 intensity.
Let's hope we luck out again this year.
I'm not sure what to expect this season, but neutral years tend to be more dangerous for us track-wise.
no names will be retired because they are no match to the strength of Jangmi, which didn't get retired by the typhoon committee.
Don't think we'll know which storm gets retired until the beginning of the hurricane season.
Ike and Hanna will definitely be retired from the list. Ike is the 3rd costliest hurricane in US history behind Katrina and Andrew and Hanna killed hundreds of people in Hispaniola. Storms are retired based on their destruction to life and property rather than their intensity. Tropical Storm Allison (2001) retired but not Hurricane Emily (2005). Gustav is the other candidate and its highly unlikely Paloma and Omar will be retired.
Gustav shouldn't even be the other candidate, Gustav will be retired. Dolly and Hanna are the other two candidates to be retired.
They didn't retire Hurricane Gordan in 1994 that hit Haiti and killed over a thousand.
41 days..
17 hours...
46 minutes and it starts...
We went to the Premire of "The Messenger" last night. A film about one year with several interesting characters on Bolivar Peninsula, Ike was an unlooked for happening that became a poignant part of the film. Great before and after shots of peoples lives and property. Worth seeing if you get the opportunity.
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