Outspoken hurricane scientist Ivor van Heerden cut loose by LSU
Louisiana State University (LSU) will not renew the contract of controversial hurricane scientist Ivor van Heerden, according to nola.com . Dr. van Heerden has been stripped of his title as deputy director of the LSU Hurricane Center, and will lose his job in May 2010. The Director of the LSU Hurricane Center, engineering professor Marc Levitan, resigned from that post in protest over the firing of van Heerden. LSU has given no reason why it is removing Dr. van Heerden, but said it was not because of his performance. Van Heerden, who holds a Ph.D. degree in marine sciences from LSU, was one of the most outspoken scientists on the vulnerability of New Orleans before Katrina struck in 2005. He worked extensively with FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers, and political figures at the local, state, and U.S. Congressional levels to try to improve New Orleans' disaster readiness. In the aftermath of the storm, he provided support for the search and rescue efforts and plugging of the levee breaches, then headed one of the teams assigned to figure out what caused the levees to fail. PBS's NOVA did a nice story on him in 2006, featuring interviews before and after Katrina. He was highly critical of the Army Corps of Engineers and politicians at the local, state, and federal level for allowing the Katrina disaster to happen, and for their abysmal response to the storm's aftermath.
It is no surprise that van Heerden has been fired, as he has also been very critical of the LSU administration. His May 2006 book, The Storm: What went wrong and why during Hurricane Katrina--the inside story from one Louisiana scientist, (see my review), tells of a case in November 2005 after Katrina where two LSU assistant chancellors told him to stop talking to the press, because it was "hurting LSU's quest for federal funding across the board." Van Heerden further remarked:
A balanced view on research is lacking at many universities obsessed with competing for the big brownie points, where upper administrators' egos and boasting rights are more important than solving problems to the benefit of society at large. You would think that our work before, during, and after Katrina might have turned some heads at LSU, but not really. Witness the gag order placed on me by the school during the levee investigation a couple of months later (soon rescinded with apologies)
Van Heerden is a big proponent of building a flood protection system that will protect Louisiana from a Category 5 hurricane. He proposes doing this by restoring wetlands, building armored levees, and installing huge flood gates on Lake Pontchartrain, similar to what the Dutch use to protect their country from the North Sea. I especially like his emphasis on the importance of doing good science. He is not a fan of what politicians and business leaders do with good science:
The science is the easy part. The hard part is overcoming the narrow-mindedness and selfishness of politics and business as usual. For decades the two have undermined plan after plan to restore wetlands, build new ones, and thereby protect people and property. They have played hell with improving the existing levee system. We must do better now, or we can kiss it all good-bye for good. I was not exaggerating in the introduction when I said that politics and business as usual in Louisiana will eventually put everything below Interstate 10 underwater. Science and engineering can save the day, but not if they're censored or manipulated. If that's to be the case, just shelve them and start packing. It's over.
According to an article in The Nation, Dr. van Heerden is scheduled to testify in a trial that begins in federal court on April 20. Judge Stanwood Duval will rule on a claim by six homeowners that the Corps failed to heed environmental laws in building and maintaining the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet shipping shortcut, which they claim led to the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans during Katrina. A second trial will begin shortly after that--a large class action suit seeking hundreds of millions in damages from the Corps. When Dr. van Heerden was first asked to testify at these trials in spring 2007, LSU's then-president, Sean O'Keefe, told plaintiffs' attorneys that if van Heerden testified against the Corps he would be fired (O'Keefe had served as head of NASA under George W. Bush between 2001 - 2005, and stepped down as LSU chancellor in January 2008). According to van Heerden, the LSU president said "nobody from LSU was going to embarrass the Bush administration or upset the major Republican companies that benefit from Corps of Engineers contracts." LSU has officially blocked Dr. van Heerden from testifying as an "expert witness" in the upcoming trials, but he can still testify as a "fact witness".
Regardless of where he winds up next, I'm sure Van Heerden will continue to voice his valuable views on the science of what is best for Louisiana and New Orleans. In an interview with the Associated Press, Dr. van Heerden said Friday he would appeal the college's decision and was considering legal action. "Before going that route, I hope LSU will recognize the signal they've sent to the world is that academic freedom does not exist at LSU. The folks who are going to lose in this is LSU, not me. I will find a job rather easily. There have already been some offers."
Less politics and better science would go a long ways towards reducing our vulnerability to hurricanes. Ivor van Heerden has been a much-needed critical voice in advocating this, and I applaud his tenacity in calling it as he sees it. Louisiana very much needs Dr. van Heerden's input over the coming decades on how to move ahead to protect the vulnerable coast of the state against the twin threats of hurricanes and rising sea levels. The move by Louisiana's flagship university to silence his voice should concern everyone in the path of the next Katrina.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Patrap - thanks for your posts regarding this, .... busy sending them about
Stupid is a Real thing..... Lots of Stupid around these days.
Just seems to me THEY want to completely empty out N.O. -- so the Big $ can come in and redevelop it like DisneyLand
charlottefl - Looking forward to it.
surfmom - Yep. All that 'heads up' info and still those in charge did nothing.
We will see if any of information makes it's way into the planning this year.
From the little I have read, I am not sure that van Heerden handled things well when politics became involved. A diplomat he isn't. Certainly LSU did not handle things as they should have. When egos get involved the message gets lost sometimes. Around here on the Sea Islands, they have a saying "Keep your Eyes on the Prize". Basically it means to stay on topic, not to get side tracked with he-said she-said etc.
EDITED
as always -- Mother Nature will sort this out-- scientifically not politically (cause politicians rarely receive consequences for their actions)
simply:
LESSONS ARE REPEATED UNTIL LEARNED, DO WE NEED ANOTHER KATRINA TO GET IT????????????????
Nah... I agree:
May: 1 - 4 Tropical Depressions and 1 - 3 Named Storms
June: 2 -5 Named Storms
July: 0-1 Tropical Depressions
August: 12 to 13 Tropical Depressions 5 to 7 Named Storms 3 to 4 Hurricanes
September: No activity
November: " "
December: 2 Named Storms, 1 Hurricane
You will get no disagreement from me on that.
Good lawd, I hope people are paying attention now.
Off to the salt mine. Later folks
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
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Current Home weather station data.
Daily Area of Interest
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Release Date: July 23, 2004
Release Number: R6-04-093
When Ivor and others showed the results of the PAM exercise,(Ivor did the Science for it),..the Feds totally scoffed and Laughed at the Predictions.
No one was Laughing August a year Later.
No one.
"Heck of a Job,yup"
If I ever find it, I will put you on my local map.
Forget it.. I found it.
Here,we see another great Hurricane Specialist,describing the events to come before K even struck. Read this one,and know that Jeff Masters,and this entry..sent many who thought of staying,packing .
No doubt this entry saved Lives. No doubt
I fear yes,remember gustuv last year....so close to topping the levees and its already beeen forgotton by most!!!!..... I can remember heraldo riveria holding up the levees,lol....
and yet... when someone puts out solutions to a problem, they're dismissed..... more stupid.
My lesson here...Stupid is a real thing
That seems like quite a few for May.
Nah... I agree:
May: 1 - 4 Tropical Depressions and 1 - 3 Named Storms
June: 2 -5 Named Storms
July: 0-1 Tropical Depressions
August: 12 to 13 Tropical Depressions 5 to 7 Named Storms 3 to 4 Hurricanes , 0- 2 Major Hurricanes
September: No activity
November: " "
December: 2 Named Storms, 1 Hurricane
My new prediction total:
14 to 18 Tropical Depressions
10 to 15 Named Storms
4 to 5 Hurricanes
0 to 2 Major Hurricanes
Which is an average season!
(soz if this has double posted)
You are right, Dr. Masters nailed that prediction and did not mince words. Nice.
Thanks for that link, Pat.
415 - surfmom "Stupid is a real thing."
Yes, unfortunately it is.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 15 2009
THE ITCZ...
FROM 5N8W AT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 18W TO 3S30W.....AND GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG 13W AT
15/0000 UTC. I STUDIED ALL THE AVAILABLE METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE FROM 14/0930 UTC UNTIL 14/1645 UTC AND I SAW ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING AT AN UNKNOWN LEVEL IN THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR 2N17W AT THE END OF THAT CYCLE OF IMAGES.
I SAW A SOLID FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS IN THAT CYCLE OF VISIBLE
IMAGES MOVING FROM THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TOWARD
THE ITCZ...WITHOUT CYCLONIC TURNING. I AM INCLINED NOT TO
BELIEVE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH EXISTED AT THE TIME THAT IT WAS
ADDED TO THE MAP AND WHERE IT WAS PUT ON THE MAP ANALYSIS
YESTERDAY. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY NOT
FORM AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE IN THE ITCZ. I HAVE STUDIED
THE LATEST METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND I AM
CONVINCED THAT NO SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AWAY FROM THE ITCZ AT
THIS TIME...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 4W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 45W.
When Gustav was coming, he didn't mince his words again... though he later had to retract some of what he said.
Though, if the same scenario occurs this year - which we're all hoping it doesn't - I hope he still goes along the well-worn phrase... 'It's better to ask forgiveness than permission.'
If strong words save a single life, then the words are eternally useful...
WL150 06080 089 DLM WND 09084 931647 MBL WND 07097 LST WND 014
I have to guess "MBL WND" is like a METAR and is telling me 70 degrees and 97 knots, but I need some verification. Anyone know?
This is for tropical cyclones but doesn't seem to be much different from what you have. If you have the complete message you can paste it to Tropical Atlantic and decode it.
Identifier: REL XXXXNXXXXXW hhmmss – Release location of the sonde and the release time.
Identifier: SPG XXXXNXXXXXW hhmmss - Impact location of the sonde based on its last GPS position and the splash time.
Identifier: SPL XXXXNXXXXXW hhmm - Impact location of the sonde based on its last GPS position and the splash time. (SPL has less precision than SPG and may be removed in the next version of the NHOP).
Identifier: LAST WND XXX - Height of the last reported wind. If a surface wind is reported the Last Wind remark is omitted. XXX will never be less than 13 meters
Identifier: MBL WND dddff - The mean boundary level wind. The mean wind in the lowest 500 meters of the sounding
Identifier: AEV XXXXX - This is the software version being used for the sounding.
Identifier: DLM WND ddfff bbbttt - The Deep Layer Mean wind. It is the average wind over the depth of the sounding. Where ddfff is the wind averaged from the first to the last available wind (these would correspond to the first and last significant levels for wind); ttt is the pressure at the top of the layer, and bbb is the pressure at the bottom of the layer (in whole mbs, with thousands digit omitted).
Identifier: WL150 ddfff zzz - Average wind over the lowest available 150 m of the wind sounding. Where ddfff is the mean wind over the 150 m layer centered at zzz m.
may be this is the wave that was saying 456 near african coast
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number SEVEN
CYCLONIC STORM BIJLI (BOB01-2009)
17:30 PM IST April 15 2009
========================================
Subject: Cyclonic storm over west central Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert
At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards, further intensified into a cyclonic storm. Cyclonic Storm Bijli lays centered near 15.0N 86.5E, or about 470 kms southeast of Visakhapatnam, 750 kms west-northwest of Port Blair, and 900 kms southwest of Pathein, Myanmar. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a north northwesterly direction for some more time.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal area of north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal.
Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 km/h gusting to 70 kmph are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 48 hours commencing from tomorrow morning. Sea condition will be rough to very rough.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Satellite imagery shows curved band pattern of the system. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 19.0N and west of 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5 RPT=2.5 The forecast intensity during the next 24 hours is T3.0.
Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with a minimum central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 5 to 10 knots. 24 hours shear tendency is negative to the northwest of the system. The system lies close to south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
Current: 15.0N 86.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.5N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 20.0N 87.5E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 22.0N 91.0E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
And I appreciate the details...
Bangladesh or Myanmar for the potential landfall with winds near "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm" stage.
by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
Wednesday April 15, 2009, 8:43 AM
The Army Corps of Engineers' long-awaited study of alternatives to protect New Orleans and the rest of the state's coastal communities from storm surges caused by Category 5 hurricanes fails to meet the congressional requirement to recommend construction projects that can be built immediately, Gov. Bobby Jindal's coastal adviser said Tuesday.
Louisiana need only look at the deaths and damage caused by hurricanes during the past four years to see the potential effects of more delays, he said.
"If $8 billion to $10 billion had been spent on improvements in protection before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, it could have saved $80 billion to $100 billion and 85 percent of the lives and property lost, " Graves said.
Coastal communities also will continue to see increased costs for flood and homeowners insurance and from the requirements to raise new buildings in areas where hurricane protection is proposed, but far from construction.
Fun for them..
Station #1:
Station # 2:
They took my form, check, shirt, and tea bag and tossed me to the side of the road and told my kids to get a job, cause they needed another 3.6 trillion to cover the bills. I wonder if Castro's duplex is available yet.
Interesting quote I ran across today.
We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time. - Vince Lombardi
..This?
Speaking of the Republican party and the aforementioned Gov. Jindal... Link
That would probably be one of the few conditions over here to create a full blown revolution!
Does look pretty decent at that, TCW.
Only missing some suface convergence. Winds look like they are west all the way up. A seabreeze could do it. Nothing easterly on the Sfc charts yet- but I have seen these charts miss something small-like the onset of a seabreeze!
And how many in October?
They were stronger up here, even Weagle said we got gusts up to 50mph.
Its truly a shame that people care more about the money in their pockets than half a State!Do the Politics and Business men even realize the economic consequences of loosing SE LA or in fact most of everything south of I-10 in LA if they don't start reversing wetland loss and bulking up the Levee System? Lets run through a few things if we were to loose Southern LA...
*A Collapse of the Seafood Industry
*Countless forms of Wildlife will disappear from the face of the Earth.
*No More NOLA
*No More Port of N.O.=No more ships can go in or out of MS River=Economic Catastrophe=Trillions of $ Lost.
*No more Highway 1 which 1/3 of the USA's energy travels through...
*At Least 2 Million People will Be Displaced
and many more...
"The science is the easy part. The hard part is overcoming the narrow-mindedness and selfishness of politics and business as usual. For decades the two have undermined plan after plan to restore wetlands, build new ones, and thereby protect people and property. They have played hell with improving the existing levee system. We must do better now, or we can kiss it all good-bye for good. I was not exaggerating in the introduction when I said that politics and business as usual in Louisiana will eventually put everything below Interstate 10 underwater. Science and engineering can save the day, but not if they're censored or manipulated. If that's to be the case, just shelve them and start packing. It's over." Dr.Ivor van Heerden
^^ I could not agree more with what he said, Imo, Its all about the money and most Politicians and the Big Business men don't give a crap about our community because they are worried about how deep their own pockets are. For whoever fired this man I would be embarrassed. To the greedy scumbag politicians who give hell not to improve protection this beautiful and unique area because you are too worried about your money, you won't realize how huge of a mistake you have made when the Big One does come someday...
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number EIGHT
CYCLONIC STORM BIJLI (BOB01-2009)
20:30 PM IST April 15 2009
========================================
Subject: Cyclonic storm Bijli over west central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone alert remain in effect
At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Bijli over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards and lays centered near 15.5N 86.5E, or about 430 kms southeast of Visakhapatnam, 800 kms northwest of Port Blair, and 900 kms west-southwest of Pathein, Myanmar. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a north northwesterly direction for some more time.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal area of north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal.
Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 km/h gusting to 70 km/h are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 48 hours commencing from tomorrow morning.
Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Satellite imagery shows curved band pattern of the system. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 19.0N and west of 90.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5, RPT=2.5. The forecast intensity during the next 24 hours is T3.0.
Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with a mimimal central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 5 to 10 knots. 24 hours shear tendency is negative to the nortwest of the system. The system lies close to south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N
Forecast and Intensity
======================
Current: 15.5N 86.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 18.0N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 20.0N 87.5E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 22.0N 91.0E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
5.6 Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia 59 minutes ago Map
5.7 Owen Fracture Zone region 8 hours ago Map
5.9 Fiji region 19 hours ago
Interesting to have a significant earthquake in the area of the Pirates off of Somalia /?
Link
Thats a Great Obs...
Remember how the Nation freaked as Gas rose to 3 Bucks a Gal Post Katrina and Rita in 05?
They aint seen nuthin yet.
Let them disregard Se.La..Coastal Texas,Miss. and Ala.
One day.. they all will be screaming,
Why Didnt the Feds do something to protect these All Important National resources from disappearing?
Imagine 2 Catastrophic Cane Strikes in Se La,and Se Texas ,big uns in the same time span as Rita and K in 05.
The masses will be a walking,not driving.
So quick to forget,yet so fast to Criticize, the out of touch crowd is.
YUP...
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