Nuclear winter revisited

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on April 10, 2009

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In the 1980s and early 1990s, a series of scientific papers published by Soviet scientists and Western scientists (including prominent scientists Dr. Carl Sagan, host of the PBS "Cosmos" TV series, and Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen) laid out the dire consequences on global climate of a major nuclear exchange between the U.S. and Soviet Union. The nuclear explosions would send massive clouds of dust high into the stratosphere, blocking so much sunlight that a nuclear winter would result. Global temperatures would plunge 20°C to 40°C for several months, and remain 2-6°C lower for 1-3 years. Up to 70% of the Earth's protective stratospheric ozone layer would be destroyed, allowing huge doses of ultraviolet light to reach the surface. This UV light would kill much of the marine life that forms the basis of the food chain, resulting in the collapse many fisheries and the starvation of the people and animals that depend it. The UV light would also blind huge numbers of animals, who would then wander sightlessly and starve. The cold and dust would create widespread crop failures and global famine, killing billions of people who did not die in the nuclear explosions. The "nuclear winter" papers were widely credited with helping lead to the nuclear arms reduction treaties of the 1990s, as it was clear that we risked catastrophic global climate change in the event of a full-scale nuclear war.

Even a limited nuclear exchange can cause a climate disaster
Well, it turns out that this portrayal of nuclear winter was overly optimistic, according to a series of papers published over the past few years by Brian Toon of the University of Colorado, Alan Robock of Rutgers University, and Rich Turco of UCLA. Their most recent paper, a December 2008 study titled, "Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War", concludes that "1980s predictions of nuclear winter effects were, if anything, underestimates". Furthermore, they assert that even a limited nuclear war poses a significant threat to Earth's climate. The scientists used a sophisticated atmospheric/oceanic climate model that had a good track record simulating the cooling effects of past major volcanic eruptions, such as the Philippines' Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. The scientists injected five terragrams (Tg) of soot particles into the model atmosphere over Pakistan in May of 2006. This amount of smoke, they argued, would be the likely result of the cities burned up by a limited nuclear war involving 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs in the region. India and Pakistan are thought to have 109 to 172 nuclear weapons of unknown yield.


Figure 1. Global average temperature departure from normal since 1880 (top) and A.D. 1000 (bottom) in black, and those projected after a limited nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India of 100 Hiroshima-sized weapons in 2006 (in red). Temperatures are forecast to plunge 1.2°C (2.2°F) after such a war, reaching levels colder than anything seen in the past 1000 years. The 1815 eruption of Tambora in Indonesia produced a similar cooling, and led to the notorious "Year Without a Summer". Image credit: "Climatic consequences of a regional nuclear conflict" by Robock et al., Atmospheric chemistry and Physics, 7, 2003-2012, 2007.

The intense heat generated by the burning cities in the models' simulations lofted black smoke high into the stratosphere, where there is no rain to rain out the particles. The black smoke absorbed far more solar radiation than the brighter sulfuric acid aerosol particles emitted by volcanic eruptions. This caused the smoke to heat the surrounding stratospheric air by 30°C, resulting in stronger upward motion of the smoke particles higher into the stratosphere. As a result, the smoke stayed at significant levels for over a decade (by contrast, highly reflective volcanic aerosol particles do not absorb solar radiation and create such circulations, and only stay in the stratosphere 1-2 years). The black soot blocked sunlight, resulting in global cooling of over 1.2°C (2.2°F) at the surface for two years, and 0.5°C (0.9°F) for more than a decade (Figures 1 and 2). Precipitation fell up to 9% globally, and was reduced by 40% in the Asian monsoon regions.

This magnitude of this cooling would bring about the coldest temperatures observed on the globe in over 1000 years (Figure 1). The growing season would shorten by 10-30 days over much of the globe, resulting in widespread crop failures. The effects would be similar to what happened after the greatest volcanic eruption in historic times, the 1815 Tambora eruption in Indonesia. This cooling from this eruption triggered the infamous Year Without a Summer in 1816 in the Northern Hemisphere, when killing frosts disrupted agriculture every month of the summer in New England, creating terrible hardship. Exceptionally cold and wet weather in Europe triggered widespread harvest failures, resulting in famine and economic collapse. However, the cooling effect of this eruption only lasted about a year. Cooling from a limited nuclear exchange would create two to three consecutive "Years Without a Summer", and over a decade of significantly reduced crop yields. The authors found that the smoke in the stratosphere causes a 20% reduction in Earth's protective ozone layer, with losses of 25-45% over the mid-latitudes where the majority of Earth's population lives, and 50-70% ozone loss at northern high latitude regions such as Scandinavia, Alaska, and northern Canada. A massive increase in ultraviolet radiation at the surface would result, capable of causing widespread and severe damage to plants and animals. Thus, even a limited nuclear exchange could trigger severe global climate change capable of causing economic chaos and widespread starvation.


Figure 2. Top: Time variation of global average surface air temperature and precipitation for a limited nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India of 100 Hiroshima-sized weapons, assuming they inject 5 Tg of Black Carbon (BC) into the stratosphere. The global average precipitation is 3 mm/yr, so the changes in years 2-4 represent a 9% global average reduction in precipitation. Bottom: Time variation of sunlight (shortwave radiation) at the surface, in watts per meter squared, due to the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (blue line) and the limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan (black line). The effects of a limited nuclear war are far more severe and long lasting than the eruption of Pinatubo, the greatest eruption of the 20th century. Image credit: "Climatic consequences of a regional nuclear conflict" by Robock et al., Atmospheric chemistry and Physics, 7, 2003-2012, 2007.

Climate change and the Doomsday Clock
It is sobering to realize that the nuclear weapons used in the study represented only 0.3% of the world's total nuclear arsenal of 26,000 warheads. Fortunately, significant progress was made in the 1990s and 2000s to reduce the threat of nuclear war. If the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) is fully implemented by the U.S. and Russia as planned, by 2012 the world's stockpile of nuclear weapons will be just 6% of the 70,000 warheads that existed at the peak of the cold war in 1986. However, the threat of a more limited regional nuclear war has increased in recent decades, since more countries have been joining the nuclear club--an average of one country every five years. The 2007 move by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to move the hands of their Doomsday Clock two minutes closer to midnight--the figurative end of civilization--helped call attention to this increased threat. In addition, they also mentioned climate change for the first time as part of the rationale for moving the clock closer to midnight. I believe that climate change does not pose an immediate threat to civilization--at least for the next 20 years or so--and there is still time to significantly reduce the threat of "doomsday" levels of climate change to civilization if strong action is taken in the next 20 years to cut carbon emissions. Thus, setting the hands of the clock closer to midnight because of climate change is probably premature. However, climate change triggered by a limited nuclear war is a whole different situation. The twin disasters of a limited nuclear war, coupled with the devastating global climate change it could wreak, should remind us that there is no such thing as a small scale nuclear war. Even a limited nuclear war is a huge threat to Earth's climate. Thus, there is no cause more important to work for than peace, so, this Easter weekend, I plan on making myself--and thus the world--more peaceful.

Jeff Masters

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941. tampabos
1:26 PM GMT on April 14, 2009
A tornado was reported in the Trinity Oaks subdivision in Holiday located in Pasco County.
940. tampabos
12:51 PM GMT on April 14, 2009
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
7 products issued by NWS for: 6 Miles WSW San Antonio FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC057-101-141315-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0003.090414T1248Z-090414T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
848 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
CENTRAL PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 915 AM EDT

* AT 846 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LUTZ...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LUTZ.
LAND O LAKES.
WESLEY CHAPEL.
HILLSBOROUGH RIVER STATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE! IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8214 2810 8213 2807 8256 2839 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1248Z 262DEG 21KT 2818 8246

939. tampabos
12:31 PM GMT on April 14, 2009
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
6 products issued by NWS for: 4 Miles ESE Tarpon Springs FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC101-103-141300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0002.090414T1225Z-090414T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
825 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 825 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR DUNEDIN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DUNEDIN.
PALM HARBOR.
TARPON SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE! IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON


938. RMM34667
12:16 PM GMT on April 14, 2009
YEAH it raining. BOO I have to drive to work in it. There are TWO purple triangles on the radar, think I'll wait a little bit. Not that I can avoid it, I just want to sit here and watch a little bit!
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
937. BahaHurican
12:15 PM GMT on April 14, 2009
Just before I go let me leave you with

The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas: Personal Recollections of Some of the Greatest Storms to Affect the Bahamas

The author is Bahamian Wayne Neely.

The Major Hurricanes to Affect The Bahamas-Personal recollections of some of the Greatest storms to affect the Bahamas-highlights historical Hurricanes that have impacted the Bahamas and because of last year's record breaking Hurricane season and the record breaking damages that these hurricanes have inflicted to us here in The Bahamas and the region as a whole it is a very timely book. Through vivid pictures of actual damages from these storms of the past and present day, it shows the damages that these storms have inflicted on the country of The Bahamas and the need to be prepared for these storms. This book highlights all of the major hurricanes to affect The Bahamas from 1500 to present day Hurricanes like Andrew, Wilma, Frances and Jeanne and even Katrina. It further states the damages that all of these individual hurricanes inflicted to The Bahamas on an Island by Island basis.

It's expensive, but I'm supposed to have a copy of it around here somewhere. I thought the recollections part could have been better, but when one considers that the only people who lived through the storms of the 1920s to still be alive today would have been young childrent at the time, (my own grandparents weren't even in their teens as yet) I suppose I have to be satisfied with what I have.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
936. tornadofan
12:15 PM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting tampabos:
I wake up this morning to find a tornado watch for my area.


Not all days start off as good do they? Time for preparations. Please make sure your digital camera and/or camcorder are fully charged and ready to document any passing severe weather.
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
935. BahaHurican
12:07 PM GMT on April 14, 2009
Ugh. Gotta go to work this morning, after a lovely long weekend. Only upside is the weather is great - not cold, not sweltering, not humid, not too windy, and FULL sun. . . lol

Maybe the wireless at work will actually function today, and I'll get to check in with u guys later. If not, have a good one!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
934. tampabos
12:04 PM GMT on April 14, 2009
I wake up this morning to find a tornado watch for my area.
933. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:23 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number ONE
DEPRESSION BOB01-2009
14:30 PM IST April 14 2009
===========================================

At 9:30 AM UTC, latest satellite imageries indicated that a depression has formed over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal and lays near 12.5N 88.0E, or about 550 kms west-northwest of Port Blair, 700 kms southeast of Visakhapatnam, and 800 kms northwest of Pathein, Myanmar. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy falls is likely over Andaman & Nicober Islands during next 48 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/h gusting to 65 kmph are likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining Sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45748
932. CybrTeddy
11:23 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
All that instability and humity yesterday caused this, this isn't that strong of a Cold Front,not suppose to go below 83 Degrees here.
Lots of Lightning assosiated with this front.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24262
931. BahaHurican
11:19 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting katlbeach:
During Wilma, I had family from Ft Lauderdale visiting up here in North Florida. The couldn't go home for 2 weeks! No power at homes or businesses, but all we kept hearing about was Katrina. I don't think people who weren't there had any idea how devastating it was. When I visited Ft Laud a couple of months later, the usually lush, green landscape had just been stripped. I had never seen it like that.
The vegetation is just really beginning to recover at the north end of Broward County. Places like Boca, Deerfield etc were bare for practically two years.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
930. animalrsq
11:02 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Sitting here in Citrus County, FL getting a little nervous. Gret to be woken up by the weather radio.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 219
927. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:56 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Chief Meteorological Forecast (0900z 14APR)
==============================================
Morning’s low pressure area over southeast & adjoining central Bay of Bengal has become well-marked low pressure area over the same region.

It is likely to intensify further into a depression during next 24 hours. Under its influence widespread rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during 48 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45748
926. KoritheMan
8:48 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140747Z - 140915Z

SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...MAY STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH.

EXTENSIVE/LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
IMPLIES A NUMBER OF STRONGER CORES WITHIN THE BROADER MCS AS CLOSE
AS 60-120 MILES OFF THE FL WEST COAST...WITH OTHER MORE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT NEARING THE FL WEST COAST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED/DRIED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHALLOW
OUTFLOW...INFLUX OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE ADJACENT GULF WOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT. WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WSR-88D
VWP DATA FROM TAMPA BAY/TALLAHASSEE IMPLY RATHER FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

..GUYER.. 04/14/2009
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20880
925. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:27 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 14APR)
========================================

A low pressure area over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal persists. It is likely to become more marked. In association with the low pressure area convective clouds are seen between 5.0N to 18.0N and 83.0E to 94.0E.

Convective clouds are also seen over parts of southeast Arabian Sea, east central Bay of Bengal, and north Andaman Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45748
924. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:10 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0630z 14APR)
==========================================
An area of convection (94B) located at 12.5N 87.8E or 440 NM east of Chennai, India. Multispectral imagery indicates a consolidating low level circulation center with pockets of flaring deep convection over the center and to the southeast of the low level circulation center. A 0010z AMSU-B Pass indicates fragmented banding wrapping into the low level circulation center with the deepest convection located on the southeastern periphery. Upper level analysis indicates that the low level circulation center is located south of an upper level ridge axis providing good equatorward and poleward outflow and low vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures are favorable for development thoughout the region.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimal sea level pressure of 1001 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45748
923. stillwaiting
5:15 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
....interesting low pressure swirl in the BOC ejecting NE ahead of the trough on the GOM psu visible loop,this will be one reason for the possible severe situation in Central FL tomorrow....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
922. stillwaiting
4:33 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
severe weather to likely effect most of Central Florida tomorrow,with the highest probablity from the Tampa bay area south to ft myers area between 4am and 4pm...what to expect:gusty SW winds gusting over 40mph,heavy rain at times 1-2 inches with localized flooding,vivid lightning,and possible small hail or waterspouts/short lived tornado's...this is looking to be central and south Fl's first real severe outbreak this year,imo.....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
921. stillwaiting
4:13 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting StormW:


Oh yeah!


I looked over your blog and I'm still thirsty for alot more weather info,any recommendations on a "weather bible" of sorts or even one strictly about TC's?????
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
919. TheCaneWhisperer
3:42 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Have to say though that, Palm Beach & Broward have done an excellent job protecting against infiltration of Salt Water, Hence the Green KBDI along the coast.
917. Ossqss
3:10 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:


Seriously. It is tomorrow in UTC time. The time zone within which all things met are referenced to.

The question: Which direction would the wind have to primarily be blowing from along the south Texas coast near Brownsville for there to be an upwelling event in the GoM there?

Wow. What a thunderclap. I might not be online for long. Answer in the morning.


Ha, the weather machine worked. Nightall

answer, can't happen.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
916. TheCaneWhisperer
3:10 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
The Big Ouch! Rain can't come soon enough, keeps getting worse every year.
915. atmoaggie
3:09 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting Ossqss:


Please leave a message after the beep!


Seriously. It is tomorrow in UTC time. The time zone within which all things met are referenced to.

The question: Which direction would the wind have to primarily be blowing from along the south Texas coast near Brownsville for there to be an upwelling event in the GoM there?

Wow. What a thunderclap. I might not be online for long. Answer in the morning.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
914. Ossqss
3:05 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:


Wait a minute. It is time for your quiz.


Please leave a message after the beep! OOps Beep :P
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
913. atmoaggie
3:03 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting Ossqss:
Ok, too much to abstract thinking for me for one night. I plead insanity. I am just crazy about weather, what can I say! Be well all and watch out for that singularity item from 850. : )


Wait a minute. It is time for your quiz.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
912. JRRP
3:02 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
This year in South Florida was

Dry / Cold

Can't really explain where that came from.

i think is neutral
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
911. Ossqss
2:55 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Ok, too much to abstract thinking for me for one night. I plead insanity. I am just crazy about weather, what can I say! Be well all and watch out for that singularity item from 850. : )
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
910. Tazmanian
2:53 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
my yahoo IM is


david_thomas4000 if any one would like too talk with me am all so on the blogs has well
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
909. TheCaneWhisperer
2:51 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
This year in South Florida was

Dry / Cold

Can't really explain where that came from.
908. TheCaneWhisperer
2:49 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Traditional El Nino / La Nina in South Florida

El Nino = Wet / Cold

La Nina = Dry / Hot

2006/2007 El Nino In SFL = Dry / Hot

2007/2008 La Nina In SFL = Wet / Cold
907. Ossqss
2:41 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Can you translate that again for us. Wet/dry got corrupted somewhere in there. Perhaps I should have said corrugated. I feel like I need to put my shutters up right now.

What does that mean for us on the hurricane front. Good, bad, ugly? Is there any history on this type of thing?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
906. TheCaneWhisperer
2:40 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
All the talks about a NINO, for SFL this has been a trademark NINA winter and on the cold side at that. Have to see what the early summmer has in store, hopefully some rain.
905. TheCaneWhisperer
2:37 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Weather as normal right, HAHA.

But you can throw the rule book out the window for the past two dry seasons.

Or at a minimum, we have to consider them as extreme (and remarkable) exceptions to the historic rule!

2006-07 set the record for the lowest (driest) dry season rainfall during an El Nino year.

Now it looks like 2007-2008 dry season could set the record for the highest (wettest) La Nina year (discounting the 1998-99 anomaly with high Nov’88 rain from T.S. Mitch).

All we need is an additional 0.15" more rain in the next 3 weeks will move 2007-08 from 3rd to 2nd highest; and adjusting 1998-99 for T.S. Mitch could make 2007-08 the wettest-ever La Nina dry season.

Courtesy: South Florida Watershed Journal
902. beell
2:28 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting PresidentialElection:


Here in South Florida you meant?


Oh! S FL. Ya'll didn't have any weather!
j/k
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16768
901. TheCaneWhisperer
2:28 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Vort, Cyber, Hurri23

WASSSSSSSSUUUUUUUUP!

What cha guys been up to?

Kind of a love, hate relationship we have here. Good to see staples back on the board. Cold A&* winter in SFL.
899. beell
2:25 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting PresidentialElection:
What's up, people?


Weather, PE-what kind did you get today?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16768
897. theshepherd
2:22 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
886
yep
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10097
895. theshepherd
2:19 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
890
looks like that one has flatlined...
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10097
894. Ossqss
2:18 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
Quoting vortfix:
Thanks Beell.
I was just looking there.

Osgss...knock it off with the crappy photos!



If I had any feelings,you woulda hurtum. Just helpin with the question that was asked is all.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
893. beell
2:15 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
sure thing, vort-inquiring minds?

Looks like the progressive pattern will continue-but it is indeed very, very, slow.

GFS brings a trough onshore CA tomorrow, farts around as a closed low over the middle of the country and opens back up over the SE and exits off the east coast Wednesday after this one-hard to believe at this point.

Yeah, it should give TX some rain. And FL!
(N FL LOL)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16768
892. atmoaggie
2:14 AM GMT on April 14, 2009
nado warnings to my north, thunderstorm to my west and I have stars. Unusual.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.