Average hurricane season foreseen by CSU, but TSR predicts an active season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on April 07, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

A near-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2009, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The Klotzbach/Gray team is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a step down from their December forecast, which called for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (32% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (31% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an average risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters cited several reasons for reducing their forecast from an active season to an average season:

1) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic have cooled considerably since December. In fact, these SST anomalies are at their coolest level since July 1994. Cooler-than-normal waters provide less heat energy for developing hurricanes. In addition, an anomalously cool tropical Atlantic is typically associated with higher sea level pressure values and stronger-than-normal trade winds, indicating a more stable atmosphere with increased levels of vertical wind shear detrimental for hurricanes. Part of the reason for the substantial cooling since December is because a stronger than average Bermuda-Azores High drove strong trade winds. These strong winds acted to evaporate more water from the ocean, cooling it. Higher winds also increase the mixing of cool waters to the surface from below. However, in March, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened. The resulting weaker trade winds may allow SSTs to warm to above average levels by the coming hurricane season, if this weaker Bermuda-Azores High persists.

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. The CSU team expects current weak La Niña conditions to transition to neutral and perhaps weak El Niño conditions (50% chance) by this year's hurricane season. April and May are typically the months when the atmosphere will swing between El Niño and La Niña, which makes any seasonal forecasts of hurricane activity during April low-skill. The current computer models used to predict El Niño (Figure 1) mostly favor neutral conditions for the coming hurricane season. These models are primarily based on statistical methods that observe how previous El Niño events have evolved. Three of the newer computer-intensive dynamical models (similar to the GFS model we use to make weather forecasts) do predict an El Niño event by hurricane season. The reliability of all of these models is poor.


Figure 1. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in March. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below-0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Three computer models predict El Niño conditions for hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October). However, most of the models predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar in April to what we are seeing this year. Those five years were 2001, featuring Category 4 storms Michelle, which hit Cuba, and Iris, which hit Belize; 1985, which had Category 3 Gloria in New England and Category 3 Elena in the Gulf of Mexico; 1976, which had Category 1 Hurricane Belle in New England; 1968, which had Category 1 Hurricane Gladys north of Tampa; and 1951, which had only one landfalling hurricane, Category 3 Hurricane Charlie in Mexico. The mean activity for these five years was 11 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the April forecasts?
This year's April forecast uses the same formula as last year's April forecast, which did quite well predicting the 2008 hurricane season. Last year's forecast included the statement, "These real-time operational early April forecasts have not shown forecast skill over climatology" during the 13-year period 1995-2007. Unfortunately, this year's forecast neglects to mention this fact. In fact, when looking at Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) their April forecasts have had negative skill between 1995-2008. In other words, you would have been better off using climatology than believing their April forecasts.

2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast yesterday, but they are calling for an active year: 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 63% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 24% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 13% chance of a below normal season. They give a 63% chance that 2009 will rank in the top third of most active hurricane seasons on record. The April 2009 TSR forecast is virtually identical to their December 2008 forecast, and is also quite close to their April 2008 forecast made for the 2008 hurricane season.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 11% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 9% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much better than flipping a coin, but is better than the negative forecast skill of the Klotzbach/Gray April forecasts.

TSR projects that 4.8 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.1 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 10-15% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites one main factor for their forecast of an active season: slower than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.4 meters per second (about 1 mph) slower than average in this region, which would create greater spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up due to reduced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will be near average in the MDR during hurricane season, and will not have an enhancing or suppressing effect on hurricane activity.


Figure 2. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and TSR (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 211 - 161

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

StormW you got mail!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

Just here for an invite...for anyone in or close to the Tampa Bay area,interested in good food, and meeting some of the local meteorologists, our chapter WCFLAMS(West Central Florida Chapter of the AMS) is having its annual banquet at the Tampa Yacht Club. If you wish to attend, please visit our website, www.wcflams.org, and click on the "Non Members Banquet Orders" tab for further details.

Thanks!



Hey buddy how you doing?????,I actually have a temp membership and will be paying my first dues to get the full membership before the end of the month,I've also just passed the skywarn stormspotters test recently!!!!,can't attend this banquet because my car is needs tires and I don't want to take it on 75.......see you around,more so when TC season starts back up,I know how busy you are,I didn't realize you were the web admin for our local chapter,how cool!!!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
You know, it always seems to cool down a bit for Mardi Gras and Easter, then, the big warm up starts slowly creeping back into the picture and we are all melting in the smoldering heat by mid-June...So, what I am trying to say is...I sure hope things don't heat up in the tropics this year...I have no faith in Dr. Gray's predictions...
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492
Operation Blessing International responding to Italy quake

Source: Operation Blessing International

Date: 06 Apr 2009


VIRGINIA BEACH, VA (April 6, 2009) - The humanitarian organization Operation Blessing International is sending its director of international disaster relief, David Darg, to Italy to assist with relief and recovery operations in response to the deadly earthquake that struck central Italy early Monday.

Darg, who for the last year has led the charity's earthquake response in Sichuan Province, China, will arrive in the Italian quake zone late Tuesday and will assess the damage. A first priority will be providing diesel-powered generators to restore clean drinking water to the hardest hit areas.

David Darg has been a part of OBI's team since 2001, providing strategic direction, management and logistical support of Operation Blessing's international disaster relief efforts. His experiences have included aiding war refugees in Sudan, Kenya and Somalia, being one of the few aid workers permitted entry into cyclone-devastated Myanmar, and managing one of OBI's most significant projects to date - the rebuilding of an entire village in Yao Jin, China that was destroyed by an earthquake in 2008.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ReliefWEB

Italy: Earthquake - Apr 2009
Updates on Italy affected by the Italy: Earthquake - Apr 2009 emergency. GLIDE No. EQ-2009-000072-ITA

Latest Updates
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
205. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Jade (995 hPa) located at 22.6S 49.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving south-southeast at 4 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 240 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 23.7S 50.2E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.0S 50.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 29.6S 54.4E - 40 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)
72 HRS: 38.0S 59.1E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
======================
The system is now tracking slowly south-southeastwards, it is expected to accelerate progressively towards this direction. The northwesterly vertical wind shear has clearly increased, convection is swept in the southeast of the circulation and the low level center is now visible on the northwestern edge of the convection. The system is expected to go on weakening undergoing this strong vertical wind shear, tracking over cooler sea surface temperatures, then evacuate with the next trough up to 48 hours becoming extratropical.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
Quoting Clickerous:
this is my wifes first year living in south florida, I've lived down here 7 years now.. We live less than a mile from the beach and She's scared to death lol She's originally from chicago.. I'm trying to convince her its not as bad as it seems, that being prepared is the key.. She's just not buying it lol
She may feel that she has a bit more control over the situation, if she has specific things to do to prepare. I would let her read patrap's Hurricane Preparation blog and then turn her loose to plan for the season.

ADDITION: Remember the blog awhile back where Masters shows the percentage of deaths due to hurricane, lightning, etc. If memory serves, the vast number of deaths were due to temperature extremes - heat during the summer, cold during the winter. Chicago has suffered both with deaths. As long as she evacuates when she is told to, her chance of dying from weather related phenomenon are probably much greater in Chicago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Update on Buenos Aires - So far itinerary includes six hour nap, husband still snoring, I'm eating left over food from airplane snack pack, Tommorrow is another day!
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
Quoting Clickerous:
this is my wifes first year living in south florida, I've lived down here 7 years now.. We live less than a mile from the beach and She's scared to death lol She's originally from chicago.. I'm trying to convince her its not as bad as it seems, that being prepared is the key.. She's just not buying it lol


The prices to live in paradise lol.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
201. TropicTraveler
12:19 AM GMT on April 09, 2009
Quoting Clickerous:
this is my wifes first year living in south florida, I've lived down here 7 years now.. We live less than a mile from the beach and She's scared to death lol She's originally from chicago.. I'm trying to convince her its not as bad as it seems, that being prepared is the key.. She's just not buying it lol
Congratulations on your excellent choice of a highly intelligent wife! (grin) We lived in south Florida for some years and I loved it. Now becaue of disaster work I spend at least a month a year there and guess what. I still love it.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
200. HurricaneSwirl
12:01 AM GMT on April 09, 2009
Got down to the lower 30's and mid to upper 20's today in central GA. Yikes! I thought we were over that 2 months ago!!
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
199. GeoffreyWPB
11:58 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Beautiful here in Lake Worth..does anyone know if any record low temperatures were set in Fla. this morning?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
198. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:14 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FIFTEEN-F
9:00 AM FST April 9 2009
==============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 15F (1005 hPa) located at 7.3S 163.1E is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and latest Quikscat Pass.

The system lies embedded along a monsoonal trough. Recent Quikscat Pass depicts a broad area of low level cyclonic circulation. Deep convection is mostly associated with a convergence zone to the north of 15F but no real organization. CIMMS indicates the system lies in a low shear environment under a diffluent region. Sea surface temperatures is around 31C. Latest water vapor imagery shows dry air to the southeast. Most global models has picked up the system and moves it southwes with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR TD15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
197. twistermania
9:30 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
TS affecting India
196. DDR
9:26 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Greetings everyone, from Trinidad.We had a rainy day yesterday and this morning,1.5 inches at my location,judging from the wind shift and african dust this may well be our first tropical wave.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1729
195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:10 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
Any of the prediction centers say anything of Floridas proneness to storms this year?
iam expecting a bit of sub tropical activity to dev early in the season maybe by end of april early may as we slowly get in to the summer pattern mostly along n cen gulf and east gom near west fla then some more at the end of season over nw carb./ west atlantic
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
194. Seastep
9:09 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
I've seen a test floater up here and there before, but not so many. Guess I've just never been there at the right time to see it.

But, of course they'll test stuff.

What's "flash loop?"
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
193. hurricane23
9:03 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
SSD is running a few tests as there trying out there (flash loop) capability.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
192. Seastep
9:03 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
191. Seastep
9:02 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Ok Ok ;)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
190. Drakoen
8:59 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting Seastep:
NHC's really gearing up too.

Test floaters all over the place:

Link


You mean SSD is gearing up.

"The Satellite Services Division of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) provides real time access to satellite data and products for the public and government."
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30826
189. hurricane23
8:55 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting Seastep:
NHC's really gearing up too.

Test floaters all over the place:

Link


NHC has nothing to do with those test floaters the current forcaster on duty at SSD has chosen to run some test which actually is quite normal.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
188. Seastep
8:45 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
NHC's really gearing up too.

Test floaters all over the place:

Link
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
184. atmoaggie
7:58 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting:



don't feel to bad for us,we'll be lucky if we get temps like that next october!!!!...and oh yea,its 70degrees already!!!!!


I was debating whether or not to go outside in swim shorts this morning in SE LA (34 F) in hopes that I would be cold for a few months, rather than sweating. Decided against it, but did also consider one of Press' bikinis.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
183. ajcamsmom2
7:37 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
The warm-up of the GOM is starting...


Conditions at 42001 as of
(1:50 pm CDT)
1850 GMT on 04/08/2009

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 190 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 3.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.14 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 67.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 76.3 °F
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492
182. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:34 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINETEEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JADE
22:00 PM Réunion April 8 2009
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Jade (994 hPa) located at 22.0S 49.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 36 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.5S 49.5E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 23.7S 49.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.6S 52.1E - 30 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)
72 HRS: 33.5S 56.9E - 30 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
======================
The system is almost stationary due to the subtropical highs in the south. The northwesterly vertical wind shear has clearly increased during the last hours. Convection is swept in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The system is expected to go on weakening undergoing this strong vertical wind shear, and tracking over cooler sea surface temperatures, tracking slowly southwards. Then evacuate with the next trough up to 48 hours becoming extratropical.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
181. Cotillion
6:26 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ok maybe 40% is being a little to high but recently cat fives occur about every other year if not consistently, also many people are comparing this season to 07 which had 2 cat 5s call me crazy but I'll stay with my 40%


I'm not so sure about that. Although it's far too early to really say, Cat 5s seem to occur in groups.

Going from 1947 onwards (When radar came in, first hurricane under radar I *think* was in 1946.)

1947-51: 'Fort Lauderdale' (47), Dog (50), Easy (51).

Then Janet as an outlier in 55. (Break of 4, 3 years, or a break of 7.)

1958-1961: Cleo (58), Donna & Ethel (60 - NB: Disregard the fact that Ethel may not have been a Cat 5.), Carla & Hattie (61).

(Break of 6.)

1967-1971: Beulah (67), Camille (69), Edith (71).

(Break of 6.)

1977-1980: Anita (77), David (79), Allen (80).

(Break of 8.)

1988-1992: Gilbert (88), Hugo (89), Andrew (92)

(Break of 6, 5 or a break of 11.)
Mitch is another outlier here in '98.

2003-2007: Isabel (03), Ivan (04), Emily/Katrina/Rita & Wilma (05), Dean & Felix (07).

Furthermore, given the 'reason' for cyclones to exist - transport heat from the tropics to the poles - the planet wouldn't want the poles or the tropics to be too heated/cooled (considering the stronger the hurricane, the more upwelling of heat), respectively...?

Yes, aware that Mitch/Janet don't seem to correlate with this. Not necessarily saying there's a cycle... but each group of Cat5s occur within a period of 5 years or so. The break between these last around 6, it seems. (The 8 during the 80s maybe down to the peak in the negative AMO..?)

I may be reading too much into it, but it seems a little too neatly compiled for other factors such as ENSO to be involved here on a major basis.

But regardless, given the historical tendency before of Cat 5 'seasons' are usually 5 of breadth and a 6 year gap, I'm inclined to think it's possible we'll have a break from category 5s until perhaps 2012/13.

Something to think about.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
180. Baybuddy
6:04 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Greetings all.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
179. Clickerous
6:04 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
i'll give you the 40% of a cat 5 but only 10% of land fall.. I'll make my prediction that 75% of named storms will be for the fish :)
178. Clickerous
5:57 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
this is my wifes first year living in south florida, I've lived down here 7 years now.. We live less than a mile from the beach and She's scared to death lol She's originally from chicago.. I'm trying to convince her its not as bad as it seems, that being prepared is the key.. She's just not buying it lol
177. all4hurricanes
5:56 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Ok maybe 40% is being a little to high but recently cat fives occur about every other year if not consistently, also many people are comparing this season to 07 which had 2 cat 5s call me crazy but I'll stay with my 40%
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2377
176. TropicTraveler
5:41 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Good afternoon all. The wx in Buenos Aires is spring-like and lovely and to my delight I can still speak Spanish. This is disaster related as often we have people caught in an area who do not speak English (a situation comes to mind where some workersw were picking tomatoes as a fire approached, the loudspeaker notcies were all in English, barely got the workers out in time when someone noticed they didn't understand the announcements So for all of you who love your low cost fruits and veggies, remember, somebody is out there way below min wage making them available to you. I'm in the tropics, flew across Amazon jungle, Andes mountains, Platte river tributaries, and I, the perpetual five year old with nose pressed against the candy store window was mesmerized. Hope things calm down at home - ccause I'm on time off with hubby with no diasstr work till end of May - so please stop the floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, landslides, solar storms and comets at least till then. I'm hopping about with a walker so i can see everything I want. It really helps back and knees. I'll drop in again when the report on the full moon at Iguazu Falls comes in (and I'll be there). Hope it's as fabulous as reported. By for now!
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
175. presslord
5:40 PM GMT on April 08, 2009

AP Newsbreak: Obama looks at climate engineering

Apr 8 10:55 AM US/Eastern
By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The president's new science adviser said Wednesday that global warming is so dire, the Obama administration is discussing radical technologies to cool Earth's air.
John Holdren told The Associated Press in his first interview since being confirmed last month that the idea of geoengineering the climate is being discussed. One such extreme option includes shooting pollution particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect the sun's rays. Holdren said such an experimental measure would only be used as a last resort.

"It's got to be looked at," he said. "We don't have the luxury of taking any approach off the table."

Holdren outlined several "tipping points" involving global warming that could be fast approaching. Once such milestones are reached, such as complete loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic, it increases chances of "really intolerable consequences," he said.

Twice in a half-hour interview, Holdren compared global warming to being "in a car with bad brakes driving toward a cliff in the fog."

At first, Holdren characterized the potential need to technologically tinker with the climate as just his personal view. However, he went on to say he has raised it in administration discussions.

Holdren, a 65-year-old physicist, is far from alone in taking geoengineering more seriously. The National Academy of Science is making climate tinkering the subject of its first workshop in its new multidiscipline climate challenges program. The British parliament has also discussed the idea.

The American Meteorological Society is crafting a policy statement on geoengineering that says "it is prudent to consider geoengineering's potential, to understand its limits and to avoid rash deployment."

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
174. sky1989
5:29 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
How is everyone doing? What does anyone think about the current naming system for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic? I know this is probably far-fetched and will likely never happen, but I think it would be better if we named storms like they do in the West Pacific. In that way every name would get used equally. For example, if we currently did that in the Atlantic, the last storm last year was Paloma, so the first storm this year would be Rene. This would solve the problem about having to use the Greek alphabet to name the 22nd storm of the season. They have done that in the West Pacific for a while now and have never had a problem with it.
Member Since: June 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
171. Cotillion
4:43 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
Any of the prediction centers say anything of Floridas proneness to storms this year?
Quoting Vortex95:
Any of the prediction centers say anything of Floridas proneness to storms this year?


CSU said in its April Forecast:

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1)
Entire U.S. coastline - 54% (average for last century is 52%)
2)
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 32% (average for last century is 31%)
3)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 31% (average for last century is 30%)
4)
Average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

In general storm terms:

Florida plus East Coast (Regions 5-11):
52% (50%) for TS hit.
46% (44%) for hurricane hit.
32% (31%) for major hurricane hit.
63% (61%) for any hurricane hit.
82% (81%) for any storm hit.

The averages for the last few decades are in brackets.

The table including this information, as well as for the entire US as well as specifically for the Gulf Coast, can be seen on page 22 of the above link.

However, this is still basically a guess. Doesn't matter if it's 1% or 99%, a chance is a chance.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
169. twistermania
4:35 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
my prediction a TD forms every other day and hits S Fla!!!!!

with 14 other named storms with a few hurricanes spliced between with a few being majors.


More like, a TD hits Florida every month? lol
166. hahaguy
4:25 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting weatherblog:
Spring break.. 55... Florida... those do not compute

Yes, I know what you're talking about. I am in South Florida and it was 47 degrees the other day (broke the record by the way). Too cold to go to the beach.


Ya it's not suppose to be this cold here in April LOL.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
165. weatherblog
4:03 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Spring break.. 55... Florida... those do not compute

Yes, I know what you're talking about. I am in South Florida and it was 47 degrees the other day (broke the record by the way). Too cold to go to the beach.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
164. AussieStorm
3:58 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Cyclone kills three, leaves 800 homeless

Article from: Agence France-Presse

From correspondents in Antananarivo

April 08, 2009

THREE people were killed and 800 made homeless by tropical cyclone Jade on the Indian Ocean island nation of Madagascar, the authorities said overnight.

"Two children and their mother died when their house collapsed" in a northern neighbourhood of the capital Antananarivo, Madagascar's disaster management authority said.

Jade made landfall yesterday in the northeastern region of the vast island and has now left Madagascar, but the heavy rains it left in its trail heightened fears of serious floods.

Madagascar's cyclone season is due to end soon and had not caused any victims so far this year, whereas 42 people were killed in 2007 and at least 150 the previous year.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
163. Cotillion
3:55 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:
hold the phone stop the clocks



40% of a cat 5????



thats a little high dont you think???



i think any where from 2% to 10% ch of a cat 5


I don't think we'll have one. Even throughout history, Cat 5s aren't exactly a dime a dozen.

In the first eight years of the current AMO period, we only saw one Cat 5 (Mitch). Course, then we saw 8 in 5 years... but feeling confident there won't be one.

Still, any storm in the wrong area is bad enough.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
162. stillwaiting
3:39 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
chance of a cat 5 this year is about 60%,I believe we're in a years long trend of stronger hurricanes,not more TC's in general!!!

the sst's seem a bit warm for this time of year?????
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
161. twistermania
3:34 PM GMT on April 08, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:
hold the phone stop the clocks



40% of a cat 5????



thats a little high dont you think???



i think any where from 2% to 10% ch of a cat 5


We'll have to keep on our toes for that!

Viewing: 211 - 161

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
34 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron