Alaska's Redoubt Volcano erupts; Midwest tornado outbreak possible today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on March 23, 2009

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After many months of rumbling, Alaska's Redoubt Volcano finally exploded beginning at 11:38pm last night. Four separate eruptions have sent clouds of ash up to 50,000 feet high into the air. Redoubt is located about 100 miles southwest of Alaska's most populous city, Anchorage. Ash fall advisories were issued for the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell to the north and west of Anchorage until 8am AKDT this morning, and light ash has already been reported at Skwentna. The prevailing southerly winds are expected to carry the ash west of Anchorage today. However, if the volcano has ejected significant ash at a height of 35,000 - 40,000 feet, the southwesterly winds at that altitude would carry the ash over Anchorage (Figure 2). Redoubt last erupted between December 1989 - April 1990, and its ash clouds presented a major hazard to aviation. On December 16, 1989, Redoubt's eruption spewed ash into the air to a height of 14,000 m (45,000 ft) catching KLM Royal Dutch Airlines flight 867, a Boeing 747 aircraft, in the plume. All four engines stalled and the aircraft plummeted 13,000 feet before the pilot was able to restart the engines and land safely in Anchorage. For more information on the Redoubt eruption, check out the Alaksa Volcano Observatory home page.


Figure 1. The summit crater of Alaska's Mt. Redoubt crater showing rapidly melting glacier and enlarged "ice piston" feature on Saturday, March 21, 2009. Image credit: Cyrus Read, Alaska Volcano Observatory/U.S. Geological Survey.


Figure 2. Plot of ash trajectories originating at the Redoubt volcano (black star) at 8 am EDT Monday March 23, 2009. The initial eruption carried ash to a height of 20,000 feet (green line), so ash is expected to move NNE, passing west of Anchorage. Ash has already fallen at Skwentna (SKW) to the north of Anchorage. If the newer blasts were able to carry significant ash to 40,000 feet (pink line), the prevailing southwesterly winds at that altitude would carry the ash over Anchorage (ANC). Image credit: NOAA.

Significant tornado outbreak possible today
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is predicting a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather and tornadoes over eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma today, as a strong Springtime low pressure system tracks across the Midwest. "Moderate Risk" is SPC's second-highest level of risk, and they expect severe thunderstorms with possible strong (EF2 or EF3) tornadoes will form late this afternoon along the cold front extending south from the low. This severe weather outbreak will be hampered somewhat by a lack of moisture, though. It's been very dry the first three months of 2009, which has made this year's tornado season about 50% less active than usual. Follow the outbreak today on our Interactive Tornado Page and Severe Weather Page.

Jeff Masters

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Orca...it's just the death rattle of the right wing losers down here...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
anyway NO storm of the century I'll use all my powers to prevent it!!!


Ok, it can't hurt. CUL8R ª¿ª
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Looks like things calmed down near KC. Not the popcorn vortex senario we saw earlier noth west of them. Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
That's sad...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:
Ok, how about that weather in the mid section of the US, wow. Anyone?


Ya that deserves a wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok, how about that weather in the mid section of the US, wow. Anyone?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting Orcasystems:
After seeing this...I am actually speechless.

I doubt I will be around much for the next little while... I won't be able to hold my tongue.


I not Canadian and I am going to need DUCK TAPE
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101. Ossqss
1:20 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Wait a minute, I did flip through that and if that stat is correct,,,,, I was the only one that hit that channel in that time slot. Not to worry, not a single person ever saw it then, until tonights re-run.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
100. Ossqss
1:16 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:
After seeing this...I am actually speechless.

I doubt I will be around much for the next little while... I won't be able to hold my tongue.


Remember this little item. If you don't give someone or something the power to bother you, it can't. That's a fact.

I would guess the market share on that show is .000000001% and those that watched were probably just channel flippers, --- not me. :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
98. zoomiami
1:13 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:
After seeing this...I am actually speechless.

I doubt I will be around much for the next little while... I won't be able to hold my tongue.


We don't claim fox news, they belong with the rest of the loonies.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
96. Ossqss
1:07 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
91. DO NOT EVEN UTTER THAT lol! water was inches from entering my house back then never again!!!


I would not wish that on anyone.

Gotta ask with that type of intensity and our inability to predict where that much energy can end up. ®¿®
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
95. Orcasystems
1:05 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
After seeing this...I am actually speechless.

I doubt I will be around much for the next little while... I won't be able to hold my tongue.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
92. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:57 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
High Seas Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER (CAT 2)
10:50 AM EST March 24 2009
===========================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasper, Category Two [985 hPa] located at 17.3S 158.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
240 NM eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM northeast quadrant
300 NM southeast quadrant
300 NM northwest quadrant
240 NM southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.9S 160.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.5S 161.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 21.2S 160.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.9S 158.1E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks:
============
CDO pattern with possible 0.5 banding feature based on GMS-5 2130UTC VIS and IR, yielding a DT of 3.5. Upper trough over the Coral Sea expected to move the system to the southeast for at least the next 24 hours. Quikscat at 22:52UTC shows 50 knot winds in the southern semicircle [most, but not all, rain affected].
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44878
91. Ossqss
12:55 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


That is some great coverage and live video...wow


You guys are all hogging the bandwidth to the streams :)

J/K,

Cant get a connection to the media, so, maybe I am not kidding ???

On the big storm front this weekend, if what you have shown moves a bit South, could we have a storm of the century senario?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
90. SevereHurricane
12:47 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Quoting futuremet:
With cape values exceeding 3000j/kg, Friday will be an interesting day



It will be an interesting day Futuremet.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
89. TampaSpin
12:16 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Quoting hurricanejam:
Live coverage of developing tornados from Oklahoma.Includes chopper coverage


news9

News4


That is some great coverage and live video...wow
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
88. futuremet
12:08 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
You have mail tampa
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
87. TampaSpin
12:06 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Thats my luck its updating now.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
86. hurricanejam
12:06 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Live coverage of developing tornados from Oklahoma.Includes chopper coverage


news9

News4
85. TampaSpin
12:05 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
This will be interesting in the Texas Border states.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
84. TampaSpin
12:01 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Damn!
3000j/kg?!?!
Combine that with very High Instability, High Dew Points, Lift Indices between -4 and -6, Strong Wind Sheer, Omega Values off the chart,a Rapidly Deepening Surface Low, A Powerful mid to Upper level Trough, and a Forceful Enviroment.

Knowing that I would say we could see a very nasty and Unforgetful Severe WX Outbreak and Heavy Rainfall event for the Deep South.Astonishingly the models are in great agreement for 6 days out.Especially the GFS and NAM.

WATCHOUT!



Yep heads could be spinning on Friday and Saturday.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
83. TampaSpin
12:00 AM GMT on March 24, 2009
Quoting futuremet:
79

I should say thanks to you, for anything that is detrimental to this blog should immediately be dispatched.


You keep doing the good job my friend....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
82. futuremet
11:59 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
81

This will probably be the first significant outbreak of the year
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
81. SevereHurricane
11:55 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
Quoting futuremet:
With cape values exceeding 3000j/kg, Friday will be an interesting day



Damn!
3000j/kg?!?!
Combine that with very High Instability, High Dew Points, Lift Indices between -4 and -6, Strong Wind Sheer, Omega Values off the chart,a Rapidly Deepening Surface Low, A Powerful mid to Upper level Trough, and a Forceful Enviroment.

Knowing that I would say we could see a very nasty and Unforgetful Severe WX Outbreak and Heavy Rainfall event for the Deep South.Astonishingly the models are in great agreement for 6 days out.Especially the GFS and NAM.

WATCHOUT!

Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
80. futuremet
11:48 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
79

I should say thanks to you, for anything that is detrimental to this blog should immediately be dispatched.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
79. TampaSpin
11:46 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
78. TampaSpin
11:44 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
FurterMet your post at 63 has expanded the Blog width. Please fix or delete it. Sorry, Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
77. AussieStorm
11:36 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 6:30am AEST on Tuesday the 24th of March 2009

At 4 am EST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Jasper [Category 1] with central pressure
995 hPa was located near latitude 17.6 south longitude 158.0 east, which is
about 1010 km east northeast of Mackay.

The cyclone is moving east southeast at about 32 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER, CATEGORY 1, is located in the eastern Coral Sea well
away from the Queensland coast and is expected to maintain its current intensity
as it moves to the southeast. TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER poses NO IMMEDIATE THREAT
to people in coastal and island communities along the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST today.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
76. Ossqss
11:22 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
well I just found out my area is under A......... Pollen Alert ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!! lol.


Not that ! It is finally letting up here on the pollen front. Thankfully, I tried Clariton this year and it actually worked. I still have skin on the end of my nose this year instead of a Rudolf senario.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
72. Ossqss
10:55 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
Those vortex signature are showing up like popcorn in the midwest. That is scary. Hunker down out there.Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
71. Ossqss
10:51 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
We have some muck fires north and east of here that can be real problems. They can actually smolder for years from what I understand and can be difficult if not impossible to put out.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
70. Ossqss
10:49 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
Ossgss Thats a long solid line of severe storms. How long would you say a band like that lasts over a given area 20-30 mins?


Your guess would be as good as mine. They are moving pretty quickly. My best guess would be 3 beverages of choice. Perhaps I should test my theory starting now. º¿ª
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
67. Ossqss
10:46 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
Its nice not having to worry about severe thunderstorms in S Fla there usually on the weaker side if they do arise but then again we do have those things called Hurricanes... :D


Unless we get a bunch more rain, it will be firestorm season here in Bradenton.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
65. Ossqss
10:44 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
lots of signatures showing up on these radars. 3+ inch hail. Going to be a long night for some. I hope the best. Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
64. Midweststorm
10:41 PM GMT on March 23, 2009
You and me both, my spelling isnt always up to par. If we get enough moisture available, the next one will probably be pretty harsh. seems to do that around late march, systems line up to pound us. Probably will be one that hits us this weekend or early next week from the looks of it.
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 98

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.