Alaska's Redoubt Volcano erupts; Midwest tornado outbreak possible today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on March 23, 2009

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After many months of rumbling, Alaska's Redoubt Volcano finally exploded beginning at 11:38pm last night. Four separate eruptions have sent clouds of ash up to 50,000 feet high into the air. Redoubt is located about 100 miles southwest of Alaska's most populous city, Anchorage. Ash fall advisories were issued for the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell to the north and west of Anchorage until 8am AKDT this morning, and light ash has already been reported at Skwentna. The prevailing southerly winds are expected to carry the ash west of Anchorage today. However, if the volcano has ejected significant ash at a height of 35,000 - 40,000 feet, the southwesterly winds at that altitude would carry the ash over Anchorage (Figure 2). Redoubt last erupted between December 1989 - April 1990, and its ash clouds presented a major hazard to aviation. On December 16, 1989, Redoubt's eruption spewed ash into the air to a height of 14,000 m (45,000 ft) catching KLM Royal Dutch Airlines flight 867, a Boeing 747 aircraft, in the plume. All four engines stalled and the aircraft plummeted 13,000 feet before the pilot was able to restart the engines and land safely in Anchorage. For more information on the Redoubt eruption, check out the Alaksa Volcano Observatory home page.


Figure 1. The summit crater of Alaska's Mt. Redoubt crater showing rapidly melting glacier and enlarged "ice piston" feature on Saturday, March 21, 2009. Image credit: Cyrus Read, Alaska Volcano Observatory/U.S. Geological Survey.


Figure 2. Plot of ash trajectories originating at the Redoubt volcano (black star) at 8 am EDT Monday March 23, 2009. The initial eruption carried ash to a height of 20,000 feet (green line), so ash is expected to move NNE, passing west of Anchorage. Ash has already fallen at Skwentna (SKW) to the north of Anchorage. If the newer blasts were able to carry significant ash to 40,000 feet (pink line), the prevailing southwesterly winds at that altitude would carry the ash over Anchorage (ANC). Image credit: NOAA.

Significant tornado outbreak possible today
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is predicting a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather and tornadoes over eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma today, as a strong Springtime low pressure system tracks across the Midwest. "Moderate Risk" is SPC's second-highest level of risk, and they expect severe thunderstorms with possible strong (EF2 or EF3) tornadoes will form late this afternoon along the cold front extending south from the low. This severe weather outbreak will be hampered somewhat by a lack of moisture, though. It's been very dry the first three months of 2009, which has made this year's tornado season about 50% less active than usual. Follow the outbreak today on our Interactive Tornado Page and Severe Weather Page.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Ossqss:


Orca, sounds like you have opportunity knocking for some remote control critter entertainment. Perhaps an infrequent sea monster appearance in the pond to stir things a bit. ?


I don't know if SWMBO'ed is really a sea monster.. but I will see what I can do :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, thats why I built the pond.. when I get home from work... I go and sit out there for about an hour... its nice to go brain dead for awhile.


Orca, sounds like you have opportunity knocking for some remote control critter entertainment. Perhaps an infrequent sea monster appearance in the pond to stir things a bit. ?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
With Baseball starting in a few days.....is anyone running a Fantasy League..or is there any interest to Start one? Leave a comment on my Blog or on my Web Site Forum.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting KEHCharleston:
155. Orcasystems
Page loads now - and darkness abounds.
I can not believe that I have gotten hooked on checking that webcam a coupla times a day. I have got to get a life.

Later folks


ROFLMAO, thats why I built the pond.. when I get home from work... I go and sit out there for about an hour... its nice to go brain dead for awhile.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
155. Orcasystems
Page loads now - and darkness abounds.
I can not believe that I have gotten hooked on checking that webcam a coupla times a day. I have got to get a life.

Later folks
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490


GOM 60 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast,Loop Current,Eddy's
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
ESL by LSU
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning folks, just a quick check in before off to work.
Hurray! Happy Rain Dance
Orca is your critter cam off line?


I haven't checked.. probably... but if it was online.. its only 6 am... still dark out. I will reboot it when SWMBO'ed gets out of bed.


Its working... but it can only handle 5 people looking at one time. So its really slow right now
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Good morning folks, just a quick check in before off to work.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Florida is finally getting some much needed rain :)
Hurray! Happy Rain Dance
Orca is your critter cam off line?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Florida is finally getting some much needed rain :)

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
For the SWFL Surfers:Warm and Humid on the way. Winds already getting a South component now. And we'll start to see that little S line. It's supposed to blow south for days in response to a gradient between the high in the ATL and the big storm over the plains. The little southy should get ridable at some point at the best S facers. I would think later Wednesday through Friday in the afternoons would be the best chance. Keep an eye on the cams and reports. The other bigger story is the swell on the EC. It will start to clean up at certain spots as the wind digs further S. Friday looks like it could be really fun over there with the wind side-offshore, even some waves for the weekend over there.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
151. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER (CAT 2)
18:00 PM FST March 24, 2009
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasper, Category Two [980 hPa] located at 19.2S 160.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots close to the center increasing to 65 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Position FAIR based on Multispectral visible/infrared with animation.

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM in the northern semi-circle
240 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM of the center in northern semi-circle
300 NM in the southern semi-circle

Overall organization increased past 12 hours. Cold convection erupted over low level circulation center. Latest SSMIS microwave imagery shows intense circulation with this cold convection. Outflow good to south but restricted elsewhere. Shortwave upper trough currently influencing system. A mid level ridge to the east steering system southeastward.

Dvorak analysis based on irregular central dense overcast, Yielding DT=3.5, PT=MET=3.5, DT based on MET.

Thus T=3.5/3.5/D2.0/24 HRS

System currently under 20 knot shear but CIMMS indicates decreasing shear to the south. Global models agree on a southeasterly track before curving it southwest in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.2S 161.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 21.0S 161.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.5S 160.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Orca post 95, what a bunch of tough guys. I wonder how much skin they have in the game. The only one I be afraid of is the women.
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149. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11-R
10:00 AM Réunion March 24 2009
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11 [1000 hPa] located at 20.8S 41.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south-southeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.6S 41.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
24 HRS: 22.1S 41.5E - 35 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 22.5S 40.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.9S 40.0E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
The system is always showing a monsoon depression structure of winds with strongest wind far from the center. Convection is organized into two large clusters. Environmental conditions are favorable to intensification, the system remains under the upper level ridge, with a good polar inflow in the first part of period. The system is expected to track progressively more southward then slowing down east-southeastward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
148. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
High Seas Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER (CAT 2)
2:50 PM EST March 24 2009
===========================

At 2:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasper, Category Two [985 hPa] located at 18.7S 160.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
100 NM northeast quadrant
240 NM southeast quadrant
240 NM northwest quadrant
100 NM southwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM northeast quadrant
300 NM southeast quadrant
300 NM northwest quadrant
240 NM southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.5S 161.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 21.3S 162.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.7S 160.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.0S 157.7E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks:
============
Irregular VIS CDO 1.6 degrees in diameter yields DT3.0. MET and PAT suggest 2.5. DT used as final T. Expect SE steering to continue for 18 to 24 hours before a competing influence slows the system and ultimately turns it westward.

  • NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC NADI..
  • Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting AKSnowLuvr:
    Very nice compilation of info on your site, TampaSpin. :)


    Thanks, i going to bed. Hopefully Redoubt does the same....I stayed up most of last night observing and i'm not doing it tonite...LOL Good nite everyone
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    Very nice compilation of info on your site, TampaSpin. :)
    Member Since: December 26, 2006 Posts: 278 Comments: 1251
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    Thought I would re-post this:
    Thanks SpayandNueter for getting the info. and sending to me.

    Beachfoxx,

    I am an animal disaster responder and worked the volcano in Chatien, Chili this past May. Good question about how to protect pets from ash fallout. The only real way is to remove them from the area, but this may be hard to do if you have large animals. After that, bring them indoors and seal all outside air intakes the best you can. Plastic sheeting and duct tape is good or using sheets and duct tape can work too. If you have a barn, that's a bunch of plastic and duct tape. Close the barn doors, outside stall doors, loft doors, etc. If you are evacuating from an ash fallout area, Put your pets in a carrier and cover it with a sheet and tape that down. Of course you don't want to use plastic in this instance!! But you can use plastic for horse trailers or livestock trailers as long as you leave some type of airflow. Keep some saline eye rinse around and flush their eyes several times a day, if you can't find any, use fresh water. Ash is very abrasive and can injure their corneas. If you are sheltering at home, seal off the house the same way and try not to take them outside if at all possible. Set up a Potty area inside with papers, they will use it eventually!! If you do have to take them out, do so for only VERY short amounts of time and then back inside. Rinse their eyes and brush the ask out of their fur to they don't ingest it when they lick or clean themselves. Make sure you rinse the pads of their feet too!!

    Remember that ash will contaminate all the outside water supplies and any open food containers, uncovered hay or feed bins. Cattle or livestock should be brought into and area where there is no grass and only fed fresh hay or feed and that should only be what they will consume in a few minutes. If they eat grass that is covered in ash, you could have a big problem, also ponds, lakes and rivers will be full of ash, so you need to provide fresh clean water for them and keep that water source clean and clear of ash. If you are paying close attention to the wind direction, it is possible to time outdoor feedings or walking when the wind shifts away from you or is calm. I noticed in Chili that sometimes we would get pounded with ash, but a few minutes later the wind would calm or shift just a bit and it was much better.

    Hope this helps with your question. Feel free to post on whatever blog you asked the question on. My friend sent me a copy of your question and I don't know where it was originally posted. But it is a great question and one that I have been worrying about since I saw the first reports of the volcano in Alaska.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    2009-03-23 20:14:56 - VAN/VONA

    Another phase of vigorous ash eruption at Redoubt Volcano began at 7:41 pm (AKDT). AVO remains at Aviation Color Code RED and Alert Level WARNING.

    The top of the ash cloud is estimated to be at least 50,000 ft above sea level based on NWS radar. Winds in the vicinity of the volcano vary with altitude and are expected to carry the ash cloud primarily to the west and north. Seismicity has declined somewhat since the start of the event but remains elevated.
    Member Since: December 26, 2006 Posts: 278 Comments: 1251
    142. Skyepony (Mod)
    Nice blizzardcane animation.


    Notsosure~ volcanos actually put out alot of sulfer & especially tropical ones~ tend to cool the earth for one or a few years because it is injectiong the atmosphere with aerosols.
    Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
    I saved those pics as it was erupting.
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    Tonite looks very similar to last nite before the big eruptions.
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    alaska_avo A new explosive eruption has just occured at Redoubt starting at 0741 PM AKDT. Radar indicate a cloud height of at least 60,000 feet above sea level. We will put out more information as it becomes available. about 13 minutes ago from Twittermail
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    Quoting Harls11:
    AVO's website says this one has already reached 60,000 feet, but it looks to be hopefully calming down already.


    Go to my web site for an a better closeup pic.

    TampaSpins Web Link
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    So, how much did the globe warm due to this?
    CO2?
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting Harls11:
    Amazing how the images were blocked by clouds, until it went off again. Now that's some force to clear out those clouds that fast.


    That was amazing.....wow. what a view.
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    AVO's website says this one has already reached 60,000 feet, but it looks to be hopefully calming down already.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    Amazing how the images were blocked by clouds, until it went off again. Now that's some force to clear out those clouds that fast.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    OMG it is erupting again.....WOW!
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    It's definitely erupting again.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Another Eruption may be occuring..

    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
    Quoting stillwaiting:
    we sure could use the rain down here in FL if a subtropical derachio develops like in 93's storm..


    I also remember the stories of flooding here in Pasco. Just checked out wikipedia..

    A substantial storm surge was also generated along the gulf coast from Apalachee Bay in the Florida panhandle to south of Tampa Bay. Especially hard hit were the eastern portion of Apalachee Bay and coastal communities in Hernando County north of Tampa, where the coast was angled into the teeth of the approaching squall (see map).

    Storm surges in those areas reached up to 12 feet (3.7 m); higher than many hurricanes. With little advanced warning of incoming severe conditions, some coastal residents were awakened in the early morning of March 13th to find the waters of the Gulf of Mexico rushing into their homes.[4] Overall, the storm's surge, winds, and tornadoes damaged or destroyed 18,000 homes and killed at least 26 people in Florida.[5]

    Link

    don't think we want the 9 foot storm surge!!! Rain YEAH we need it.
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Heads up to all the people in Florida there's a delta 2 rocket launching from the cape at around 4:30 am tonight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    NEW BLOG ENTRY POSTED:
    South Florida StormWatch
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    we sure could use the rain down here in FL if a subtropical derachio develops like in 93's storm..
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Quoting Vortex95:
    btw this is what I meant by derechio Link

    I remember that storm. Was living just North of Atlanta. Us Yankees pulled out our cross country skies and even shoveled the driveway. Neighbors laughed. Of course they were right the 11 inches of snow disappeared in about two days!! But hey in NH when it snows you shovel!
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Take a look at how the line of storms were affected by Tampabay. Swept back. Perhaps some unusual weather linkage with how Hur Charlie moved irradically sideways. Path of least resistance. Just a thought.

    I would suggest hittin mute .



    Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
    Quoting Ossqss:
    \\\\\

    Looking at the previous graphic with respect to enegry potential and the sat replay item in your link. We are only a few hundred miles off at this point. Encourages me to track it if nothing else.


    BtW, if you did not check out that link, your missing some amazing stuff about 40 sec into it. That line of storms was increadable over Florida on that day. E

    2nd hand Link
    Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
    Quoting Vortex95:
    btw this is what I meant by derechio Link
    \\\\\

    Looking at the previous graphic with respect to enegry potential and the sat replay item in your link. We are only a few hundred miles off at this point. Encourages me to track it if nothing else.
    Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
    Gutfeld needs DUCT TAPE!
    Quoting surfmom:


    I not Canadian and I am going to need DUCK TAPE
    Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    Man, this looks cool. Definitely on my list to brush up on when **(or if!)** I get the time.

    Considering the die-hards that are in here this time of year, we should cover some of the chapters...yaddaya think Doc M?

    "The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of "Chapter 5, Tropical Variability", of the online textbook, "Introduction to Tropical Meteorology". This textbook is being developed over time and its chapters are being published incrementally. This is the fourth chapter in the book to be published. Please follow this link to open the textbook: http://www.meted.ucar.edu/tropical/textbook/. The chapter covers sources of intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in the tropics. Learners will become familiar with:

    - Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) formation, observation, impacts, and prediction
    - Characteristics of equatorial waves (Kelvin, Rossby, Mixed Rossby-gravity) including structure, movement, and impacts on tropical weather and tropical cyclogenesis
    - New methods of forecasting the MJO and equatorial waves
    - The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) including its phases, evolution, observations, and global impacts
    - Theories of ENSO (from Bjerknes SST-wind feedback theory, to recent theories such as the delayed oscillator and chaotic theories)
    - Forecasting ENSO including different model types, strengths, and weaknesses
    - Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) discovery, cycle, and impacts
    - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) discovery, monitoring, and impacts
    - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) behavior and impacts on the tropics and extratropics
    - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its potential impacts on tropical variability

    The chapter uses a variety of strategies, from graphics and animations, to critical thought questions and interactions, review questions, and a quiz. Each section has links to additional sites and resources that augment the material presented in the chapter. The material has been reviewed for scientific accuracy and academic level appropriateness by a scientist and a professor with expertise in tropical meteorology and remote sensing. This chapter includes graphics and a companion print version in PDF format. The intended audience for the online tropical meteorology textbook comprises undergraduate and early graduate meteorology students, current operational or prospective tropical forecasters, and students interested in tropical meteorology. "
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    About JeffMasters

    Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.