Is U.S. climate getting more extreme?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on March 13, 2009

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Is the climate in the U.S. getting more extreme? The answer to this question depends upon how one defines "extreme". For example, the number of extreme tornadoes (violent EF-4 and EF-5 twisters) has not increased in recent years. We lack the data to judge whether there has been an increase in severe thunderstorms and hail. There has been a marked increase in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995 (though the possible contribution of human-caused global warming to this increase is not something hurricane scientists agree upon). Since it is difficult to quantify how severe storms like tornadoes and hurricanes are changing, a better measure of how climate extremes are changing is to look at temperature and precipitation, which are well-measured. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has developed a Climate Extremes Index to attempt to quantify whether or not the U.S. climate is getting more extreme. The Climate Extremes Index (CEI) is based upon three parameters:

1) Monthly maximum and minimum temperature
2) Daily precipitation
3) Monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

The temperature data is taken from 1100 stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN), a network of stations that have a long period of record, with little missing data. The temperature data is corrected for the Urban Heat Island effect, as well as for station and instrument changes. The precipitation data is taken from 1300 National Weather Service Cooperative stations. The Climate Extremes Index defines "much above normal" as the highest 10% of data, "much below normal" as the lowest 10%, and is the average of these five quantities:

1) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much above normal.

2) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much above normal.

3) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States in severe drought (equivalent to the lowest tenth percentile) based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and (b) percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.

4) Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

5) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and (b) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation.


Figure 1. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI), updated through 2008, shows that U.S. climate has been getting more extreme since the early 1970s. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center. On average since 1910, 20% of the U.S. has seen extreme conditions in a given year (thick black line).

As summarized by Gleason et al. (2008), the National Climatic Data Center concludes that based on the Climate Extremes Index, the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation generally increased since the early 1970s. These increases were most pronounced in the summer. No trend in extremes were noted for winter. The annual CEI index plot averaged for all five temperature and precipitation indices (Figure 1) showed that five of the fifteen most extreme years on record occurred since 1997. Shorter-lived periods with high CEI values occurred in the 1930s and 1950s, in association with widespread extreme drought and above-average temperatures. The most extreme year in U.S. history was 1998, with 1934 a close second. The year 1998 was the hottest year in U.S. history, with a record 78% of the U.S. experiencing minimum temperatures much above normal. That year also had a record 23% of the U.S. with much greater than normal precipitation from extreme 1-day precipitation events. The 1934 extreme in CEI was due in large part because of the most widespread drought of the century--a full 52% of the U.S. was affected by severe or extreme drought conditions. That year also saw a record 64% of the U.S. with much above normal maximum temperatures.

The impact of maximum and minimum temperatures on the Climate Extreme Index
It is very interesting to look at the five separate indices that go into the Climate Extremes Index. Today I'll look at temperature, and next week, I'll focus on drought and precipitation. The portion of the U.S. experiencing month-long maximum temperatures either much above normal or much below normal has been about 10% over the past century (black lines in Figure 2). However, over the past decade, about 20-25% of the U.S. has been experiencing monthly maximum temperatures much above normal, and the portion of the U.S. experiencing much colder than normal high temperatures has been near zero. Minimum temperatures show a similar behavior, but have increased more than the maximums (Figure 3). Over the past decade, minimum temperatures much above normal have affected 25-35% of the U.S. This means that the daily range of temperature (difference between minimum and maximum) has decreased over the past decade, which is what global warming says should be happening if greenhouse gases are primarily to blame for the rise in temperatures.

While there have been a few years (1921, 1934) when the portion of the U.S. experiencing much above normal maximum temperatures was greater than anything observed in the past decade, the sustained lack of maximum temperatures much below normal over the past decade is unique. The behavior of minimum temperatures over the past decade is clearly unprecedented--both in the lack of minimum temperatures much below normal, and in the abnormal portion of the U.S. with much above normal minimum temperatures. Remember that these data ARE corrected for the Urban Heat Island effect, so we cannot blame increased urbanization on the increase in temperatures. Recall that the all-time record maximum and minimum temperature data, which I presented in a post in February, are not corrected for the Urban Heat Island Effect, but look very similar to the CEI maximum and minimum temperature trends presented here.

A lot of people have told me that they believe we are experiencing more wild swings of temperature from hot to cold from day to day in recent years, but the CEI data does not answer this question. To my knowledge, a study of this kind has not been done.


Figure 2. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for maximum temperature, updated through 2008, shows that 20-25% of U.S. has had maximum temperatures much above normal over the past decade. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 3. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for minimum temperature, updated through 2008, shows that 25-35% of U.S. has had minimum temperatures much above normal over the past decade. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

References
Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

Annual WeatherDance contest ready for registration!
Armchair forecasters, now's your chance to shine! WeatherDance, based on teams in the men's and women's NCAA basketball tournaments, allows players to predict which team's city will be hotter or colder on game day in each round of the Big Dance. Beginning today, players can make their forecasts at the Weather Dance Web site at: www.weatherdance.org. The site will be updated with cities promptly after NCAA seeding announcements. First round Weather Dance selections must be entered by 11:59 p.m. EDT Wednesday, March 18.

"Officially, Weather Dance began as a class project to get students involved in weather forecasting, but we kept it around because it got popular. People think they can do better forecasting than the meteorologists. Well, here's their shot!" said Perry Samson, WeatherDance creator, co-founder of the The Weather Underground, Inc., and Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences at the University of Michigan.

This is the fifth year for the game. Last year more than 2,000 people played. Most play merely for the thrill, but many K-12 science teachers involve their classes as part of meteorology units. The winning teacher will receive an expense-paid trip to join the Texas Tech/University of Michigan Storm Chasing team this spring for a day of tornado chasing in Tornado Alley. Other winners will receive a Weather Underground umbrella, "Extreme Weather" mugs, or a copy of the book "Extreme Weather," by Christopher C. Burt.

I'll talk about drought and precipitation trends in my next post, Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Wow. We hit 3"/hour rainfall rate at one point yesterday (that will well kill any lingering forest fire chances):

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Quoting KEHCharleston:
I like the way you have info laid out on your blog, BTW. Especially the way you set up links for the models as tropical and numerical.

Wondering where you live, cause I am having a bit of difficulty imagining how you will accomplish the above if you are expecting signifcant flooding and at least gale winds.

Would need a backup system for your bilge pumps (in case one gave out) - extra batteries etc - I would give serious thought about the configuration. Separate batteries for your pumps vs battery backup so one of batteries dies others in-line take over.

Your boat would need to be tethered at least as high as you expect the water to get (otherwise it will be under water - or at least the engine will be - and will be know help at all).

If you tether the boat to the roof of the house, how much line will you have to use? Keep in mind as the water rises the boat may float away from the house - You are young and strong and should be able to haul in to you - unless it has become tangled in debris (a good bet) - or became swamped or flipped (a definite possibility).

Say you are lucky enough that your boat stays close to the house, you still have the above worries with the additional worry of the boat being battered against the house.

Interesting trying to figure out all the logistics (Trying to account for all the factors and what might go wrong - being flexible, when factors you did not think of occur.
Let me know how it works out for you.


That guy lives west of NOLA...in Kenner. He will not get a 30 foot fast surge like a true coastal area, but could get a 10 foot slow surge from Lake Pontchartrain...much like parts of NOLA after Katrina.

Addendum: I have to agree with Pat, though. If under a mandatory evac...

Although, my family went into the mandatory evac zone for St Tammany to ride out Gustav in my office. But that was a special. The place is hardened like a cold-war bunker (because it was) and we were providing weather updates to the National Guard in St Bernard.
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If you stay in Jeffeson Parish,,under a Mandatory Evacuation order for a Large Cane,..you not only put yourself at risk,,but the First Responders too.


Leave...its not worth the weeks or days of Misery after to do anything less.
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Quoting pangean:


You might want to think twice about this one for a few reasons.

1. The Terms of Use for the CBSSports.com Bracket Manager state: "Entertainment Purposes Only. The 2009 Bracket Manager is for entertainment purposes only and may not be used in connection with any form of gambling or wagering.

2. Seems to me that you're setting up an interstate online gambling operation. I realize that part of the proceeds are going to charity but each state has their own laws and I believe in most places you'll need a permit to run an operation like this.

3. Do you have permission from the NCAA? They're pretty serious about protecting their brand name and really, seriously frown upon gambling on college games.

I'm not a lawyer but I'd suggest that you check with one before going through with this. It really could end up badly for all involved, WU included. FWIW - if the gift cards are being offered "Complementary Gratis for your Donation", seems that you'd have to give them to all who donate.


I apprecaite the concern but, i feel you are over analyzing a Charity fund raiser. This is in no form of gambling. There are millions of fundraiser like this across the country. But, it Portlight agrees that this is a problem i can easily take it down.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
NASA TV Live

At 10:20 EST the ET'S low Fill Loading began.



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yea Orca...it's yucky out....
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Quoting Ossqss:


There are three signs of aging

First the mind goes and ah, I cannot remember the others.


LOL...on a couple of levels...
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
We have a Yamaha 230 SX HO(big boat),
We will tie it to the house again,
Like we did in Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Gustav just incase.
I know I should be scared after pretty much seeing almost every video on youtube of Hurricanes/Storm Surge, Tsunamis, and flooding.
Im not near a levee so there should not be any current if a levee were to breach.It would simply just rise, maybe quick but with not much of a current.
If that unfortunate event of a levee breach were to occur in NJP we would get on the roof quickly, and get in the boat thats tied to the House and leave and rescue as many people as possible on the way out.
I like the way you have info laid out on your blog, BTW. Especially the way you set up links for the models as tropical and numerical.

Wondering where you live, cause I am having a bit of difficulty imagining how you will accomplish the above if you are expecting signifcant flooding and at least gale winds.

Would need a backup system for your bilge pumps (in case one gave out) - extra batteries etc - I would give serious thought about the configuration. Separate batteries for your pumps vs battery backup so one of batteries dies others in-line take over.

Your boat would need to be tethered at least as high as you expect the water to get (otherwise it will be under water - or at least the engine will be - and will be NO help at all).

If you tether the boat to the roof of the house, how much line will you have to use? Keep in mind as the water rises the boat may float away from the house - You are young and strong and should be able to haul in to you - unless it has become tangled in debris (a good bet) - or became swamped or flipped (a definite possibility).

Say you are lucky enough that your boat stays close to the house, you still have the above worries with the additional worry of the boat being battered against the house.

Interesting trying to figure out all the logistics (Trying to account for all the factors and what might go wrong - being flexible, when factors you did not think of occur.
Let me know how it works out for you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1900hurricane:

In the Monthly Weather Review Report, they say that broken and felled trees in Houston pointed to the Southwest and trees 6 miles SW pointed to the north.

Think about the passage of a hurricane on the Gulf coast. How on earth do you have trees broken towards the SW? You have to have very strong NE winds. We never have very strong NE winds on the dirty side of a hurricane, on the Gulf coast.

Houston must have gone through backside, meaning, the hurricane center must have passed to the east of wherever the trees were broken to the SW...or there were embedded nadoes or meesovorticies.

After writing the above I looked at the detail in the reanalysis page for August 17:
"The storm then recurved to the northward, with high winds over the interior of east Texas, reaching a maximum of 60 miles an hour from the north at San Antonio during the day ... the actual storm center passed much closer to Houston than to Galveston, and, according to the wind directions (NE., E., SE., and S.), a little to the southward and westward of both stations. As nearly as can be determined the storm center reached the coast of Texas near San Luis Pass, at the end of West Bay, about 26 miles southwest of Galveston, at about 1 a.m., September [sic] 17, shortly after which its slow recurve to the northward and northeastward began. The extreme western point of the path was reached between 2:20 and 2:40 a.m.,
very near and presumably a little to the westward of Sandy Point, Tex. It was next definitely located at about 4:50 a.m. southwest of and very close to Houston, Tex., with a movement slightly east of north. These deductions are based upon special reports received, mainly, after the passage of the
storm, and the center is assumed to have been where the lull, or calm, that accompanies the shift in wind direction occurred as the storm center passed.
At a point about 5 miles northeast of Sandy Point the calm lasted from 2:20 until 2:40 a.m. ... A measurement by the United States Engineers at Twentieth and Strand makes the highest point [in Galveston] reached 11.965 feet above mean low tide. It appears to be the universal opinion that the water was somewhat higher than in 1900 ... The greatest loss of life and property occurred in the vicinity of Galveston, and from thence northward and westward for a considerable distance. The total loss of life was 275"

Maybe Landsea, et al. are counting on nadoes or mesovorticies for the tree damage in Houston.

Aside: I know Landsea and have asked him questions about his work on a number of occasions. I promise he will get back to you and answer any specific question you ask of him. Email the guy.
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Morning can't be on but, a second but don't forget to sign-up this evening for the NCAA Charity event.....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
BTW, Press.. did you get a bit of rain?



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting TampaSpin:
Go to my Web site at http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm to register for this exciting event!

Welcome to the Portlight Strategies 2009 Charity Pool
Portlight Strategies is proudly hosting this 2009 NCAA Men%u2019s Division I Basketball Tournament CHARITY POOL to benefit Disaster Relief for vicitims that need Help!

Portlight Strategies, Inc.

Portlight Strategies...
...offers a unique way for you to help people in need help themselves...since 1997, we have provided medical equipment (such as wheel chairs, walkers, and crutches), ramp construction and minor home modifications, and post disaster relief free of charge to people with disabilities and others in need.

Thank you for your generosity and helping us prepare for the upcoming Hurricane Season!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Before you enter your picks, please read Tournament Rules at the Web site and Tournament Prizes below.

Tournament Rules

The deadline for entries is 11:00 a.m. on Thursday, March 19. The cost to enter is $10.00 for the first pick and $5.00 for the next picks up to 3 picks maximum allowed. Payments must be made to http://www.portlight.org/home.html and payment must be received by Saturday March 21st to qualify or you will be disqulified!

The Charity Event will be covered at an on-line service at http://portlight.mayhem.cbssports.com/brackets and you must register at http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm site to obtain a password at the CBSSports site to complete your Brackets. Once you are registered as a member of http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm Web Site you can click on the protected page to get your password.

Tournament Prizes

Please read Tournament Rules and Tournament Prizes carefully, and pay special attention to entry and payment deadlines. To be eligible to participate in the tournament, players must adhere to the entry and payment deadline.



This is a charity pool and half of all entry fees will be donated to Portlight Strategies. The other half of all entry fees (the winners pot) will be awarded to the top three finishers: First Place 65% of the winners half of the pot; Second Place 25%; Third Place 10%. This will be awared in the form of Gift Cards as a Complementary Gratis for your Donation.

Good luck and thank you for your support!

Program Director of the Event,

Tim
http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm


You might want to think twice about this one for a few reasons.

1. The Terms of Use for the CBSSports.com Bracket Manager state: "Entertainment Purposes Only. The 2009 Bracket Manager is for entertainment purposes only and may not be used in connection with any form of gambling or wagering.

2. Seems to me that you're setting up an interstate online gambling operation. I realize that part of the proceeds are going to charity but each state has their own laws and I believe in most places you'll need a permit to run an operation like this.

3. Do you have permission from the NCAA? They're pretty serious about protecting their brand name and really, seriously frown upon gambling on college games.

I'm not a lawyer but I'd suggest that you check with one before going through with this. It really could end up badly for all involved, WU included. FWIW - if the gift cards are being offered "Complementary Gratis for your Donation", seems that you'd have to give them to all who donate.
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Quoting presslord:
yes...but you haven't seen me NOT in a dress...


Now why did you do that... second cup of coffee.. I was being nice... then you had to go and say that.. thats just mean
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting presslord:



I have gotten better with age....


There are three signs of aging

First the mind goes and ah, I cannot remember the others.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
yes...but you haven't seen me NOT in a dress...
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Quoting presslord:



I have gotten better with age....


Umm buds... I have seen you in a dress... and no.. you haven't.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmm somewhere... some how.. I will get even.
Mind you... Chili is good for you.. so I think I will make a gallon or two today :)

Did you ever notice.. only chili and wine gets better with age.



I have gotten better with age....
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Quoting Ossqss:


We will be sure not to mention the ribs currently on the smoker or the key lime pie. :�


Hmm somewhere... some how.. I will get even.
Mind you... Chili is good for you.. so I think I will make a gallon or two today :)

Did you ever notice.. only chili and wine gets better with age.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam

Mirror Site



Current Home weather station data.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


With the healthy living plan SWMBO'ed has had me on for the last two weeks.. that even sounds good now :?


We will be sure not to mention the ribs currently on the smoker or the key lime pie. :


Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
202. GBlet
The two food items that should be considered nuclear waste!
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Whenever I evacuated, and the storm missed, I treated it like a shake-down cruise. See what worked, what didn't. I know I want to rework some minor things this year. I used to have my family photos all together in a brief case, somehow, I have them scattered in a million different locations. I need to fix that.
And need to find recipes to make canned veggies more palatable!!!


Always keep a can of Tony's available to make any canned veggies great! (Sorry, it is a s LA thing...but it really is the only way I can eat them)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:
Twinkies and Slim Jim's don't have shelf life dating. They have Half life dating j/k. º¿ª

§



With the healthy living plan SWMBO'ed has had me on for the last two weeks.. that even sounds good now :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Twinkies and Slim Jim's don't have shelf life dating. They have Half life dating j/k. º¿ª

§

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Suttle still a go for tonight.

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
197. GBlet
I just buy when dried items are on sale and rotate them with what I have stored every few months. We live in the boonies so I keep an emergancy supply all year long. A good girl scout is always prepared.
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Great idea. I think that would flavor quite a few different dishes. Onions and potatoes have a fairly good shelf life and if purchased not too far ahead of the storm should be good. Onions, potatoes and bagels are on my pick em up list, when it looks like we may end up in a watch/warning area.
I really like the idea of a can of flavor at my fingertips - how do you dry your onions?


Don't overlook the value of a big box (100) of mini Slim Jim's for less than $10 at SamsClub. Kids love them and they work good in a pot of veggies and water, believe it or not.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting GBlet:
KEH, I keep dried onions, garlic powder and bacon bits in a "paint can" I purchased from a craft store.
Great idea. I think that would flavor quite a few different dishes. I really like the idea of a can of flavor at my fingertips - how do you dry your onions?

RE:190. aspectre
EXcellent idea, now that I read your ideas, I wonder why I have never thought of that. I have never dried foods, but now may be the time to learn to do do.

Items that are on my 'pick em up' list for purchase when it looks like we may come under a warning/watch are: Onions, potatoes (both of which have a fairly long shelf life) some fruits and veggies and bagels

EDITED FOR ADDITIONS AND CLARITY
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Tracy should be replaced with Marco.
Marco was smaller.


I wonder if the Atlantic could ever support a storm of Tip's size. That would be quite the scary site on the Sat.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting comparison



Tracy should be replaced with Marco.
Marco was smaller.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting comparison

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Go to my Web site at http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm to register for this exciting event!

Welcome to the Portlight Strategies 2009 Charity Pool
Portlight Strategies is proudly hosting this 2009 NCAA Men%u2019s Division I Basketball Tournament CHARITY POOL to benefit Disaster Relief for vicitims that need Help!

Portlight Strategies, Inc.

Portlight Strategies...
...offers a unique way for you to help people in need help themselves...since 1997, we have provided medical equipment (such as wheel chairs, walkers, and crutches), ramp construction and minor home modifications, and post disaster relief free of charge to people with disabilities and others in need.

Thank you for your generosity and helping us prepare for the upcoming Hurricane Season!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Before you enter your picks, please read Tournament Rules at the Web site and Tournament Prizes below.

Tournament Rules

The deadline for entries is 11:00 a.m. on Thursday, March 19. The cost to enter is $10.00 for the first pick and $5.00 for the next picks up to 3 picks maximum allowed. Payments must be made to http://www.portlight.org/home.html and payment must be received by Saturday March 21st to qualify or you will be disqulified!

The Charity Event will be covered at an on-line service at http://portlight.mayhem.cbssports.com/brackets and you must register at http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm site to obtain a password at the CBSSports site to complete your Brackets. Once you are registered as a member of http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm Web Site you can click on the protected page to get your password.

Tournament Prizes

Please read Tournament Rules and Tournament Prizes carefully, and pay special attention to entry and payment deadlines. To be eligible to participate in the tournament, players must adhere to the entry and payment deadline.



This is a charity pool and half of all entry fees will be donated to Portlight Strategies. The other half of all entry fees (the winners pot) will be awarded to the top three finishers: First Place 65% of the winners half of the pot; Second Place 25%; Third Place 10%. This will be awared in the form of Gift Cards as a Complementary Gratis for your Donation.

Good luck and thank you for your support!

Program Director of the Event,

Tim
http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
BahaHurican "I usually stock up on meats and beans, with only corn as a possible veggie. Last year I tried to put some italian beans, green peas, and so on there. But man, do I HATE canned veggies. . . . lol"
KEHCharleston "And need to find recipes to make canned veggies more palatable!!!"

Bulk quanties of dehydrated and freeze-dried vegetables are the way to go. Admittedly not as good as fresh, but still vastly superior to canned for making soups, stews, and casseroles. Good enough that ya might wanna use some in everyday cooking to thicken whatever dish you are making.
Little camping packs are way over-priced. Even in bulk, the dried vegetable prices may seem high. BUT 80to90% of the weight of fresh and canned is water, so dried ain't as bad as weight-to-weight comparisons might imply.

Drats, this website won't link more than one keyword for searches.
Google dehydrated vegetables bulk and then freeze-dried vegetables bulk for sites which sell the products.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
Here is something cool...
Hurricane Audrey Radar Loop(1957)

Wow! Look at how far inland that eye got before it collapsed!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting melwerle:
Not scared of water? I would like to know exact numbers of how many folks die from the wind related injuries versus FLOODING.

I would be SOOOO gone from here - i am VERY afraid of the water and I sail all the time...folks who have been here long enough should know - hide from the wind, run from the water...

Patrap - I believe that is the same video that you posted last year that made my hubby decide to pack up during a threat that might have been coming our way...no way we were drowning. Keep posting it through the season for any knucklehead who says they are going to get a lifejacket and stay.

Melissa
No matter how many times I watch that video, it sends chills down my spine. Man, if I was in a position to get away, I surely would. Certainly I wouldn't be staying in any floodprone area. . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
I found something suspicious in the Reanalysis project for the 1915 Galveston Hurricane. The track of the hurricane drawn up by the reanalysis project conflicts with data from the original report on the hurricane. The below image is a page from the report, with the conflicting data in the red box. The image is a thumbnail, so click it to see it larger.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The actual passage reads as follows:

...the actual storm center passed
much closer to Houston than to Galveston, and, according to the wind
directions (NE., E., SE., and S.), a little to the southward and westward
of both stations. As nearly as can be determined the storm center reached
the coast of Texas near San Luis Pass, at the end of West Bay, about 26 miles
southwest of Galveston, at about 1 a.m., September 17, shortly after
which its slow recurve to the northward and northeastward began. The
extreme western point of the path was reached between 2:20 and 2:40 a.m.,
very near and presumably a little to the westward of Sandy Point, Tex. It
was next definitely located at about 4:50 a.m. southwest of and very close
to Houston, Tex., with a movement slightly east of north.
These deductions
are based upon special reports received, mainly, after the passage of the
storm, and the center is assumed to have been where the lull, or calm, that
accompanies the shift in wind direction occurred as the storm center passed.
At a point about 5 miles northeast of Sandy Point the calm lasted from 2:20
until 2:40 a.m...


According to Google Maps, Sandy Point, the westernmost point of the track, is HERE (zoom out to get a better view). After that, the hurricane is supposed to move to the north an very nearby Houston. Below is the redrawn track map, which does not follow that path...



Reanalysis of the 1915 Galveston Hurricane
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184...WOW! Not too sorry that one was before my time. Even if just barely. LOL. But my parents remember her still. As do many others...

Link
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Hey Storm!
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Here is something cool...
Hurricane Audrey Radar Loop(1957)

Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
HTV thanks for the tip. I never thought about trimming the smaller trees. And there are several around here.

Hiya Storm. Nice to see your smiling face if only briefly. :)Looking forward to whatever insight you have to offer.
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180. HTV
I trimmed the pine trees around the house by taking out everything that was under about 16-18 feet from the ground. It relieves a lot of resistance and helps the pines from blowing over or twisting off the tops though I did lose one top. I didn't get around to doing the same to the trees on the "back 40" and lost more than half of them. This was from Ike.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
The conditions for Rita in Kenner were almost identical to Hurricane Cindy.There really wasn't that much damage though because Katrina had alrady wiped out anything that could be knocked down in 55-70mph wind.
Yes Rita layed down a lot of what could be blown down too. Amazing what 90 feet of oak tree can do to a home. In a way it was a blessing since we've had 2 hurricanes since. However Humberto laid a few down himself. And when Ike was approaching 1 local met told people,if they were going to stay, to look at your trees. Because Ikes winds were going to be the opposite of Ritas.Ike snapped one of our giant pines in our new backyard that had survived the other 2. Luckily missing the house behind us.
Unfortunately part of our hurricane prep will be having the remaining giant brought down.If we can even get an estimate. The tree people are still busy.


Yea I know what you mean...
People here are still busy recovering from Hurricane Katrina that was 3 1/2 years ago!

I'll bet New Orleans has the highest rate of blighted property in the country...
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
The conditions for Rita in Kenner were almost identical to Hurricane Cindy.There really wasn't that much damage though because Katrina had alrady wiped out anything that could be knocked down in 55-70mph wind.
Yes Rita layed down a lot of what could be blown down too. Amazing what 90 feet of oak tree can do to a home. In a way it was a blessing since we've had 2 hurricanes since. However Humberto laid a few down himself. And when Ike was approaching 1 local met told people,if they were going to stay, to look at your trees. Because Ikes winds were going to be the opposite of Ritas.Ike snapped one of our giant pines in our new backyard that had survived the other 2. Luckily missing the house behind us.
Unfortunately part of our hurricane prep will be having the remaining giant brought down.If we can even get an estimate. The tree people are still busy.
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Ike over Ohio River Valley...

Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
175. GBlet
clouds...duh
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174. GBlet
Dolly was a beautiful swirl of pink and purple clous as she passed over Kansas.
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Quoting Patrap:
That's a excellent point on Inland winds.

That's one definite reason the NHC is going with the Inland Hurricane Warning Graphic.
A good idea all around.

Canes are NOT just a Coastal Event ..as Ike showed many States thru the USA inland last summer.


Yea Ohio got near Hurricane Force Gusts...
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
172. GBlet
I keep this with my tornado supplies. I also dip my own matches in nail polish and store them there as well.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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