National Hurricane Center proposes Storm Surge Warnings

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on March 10, 2009

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At last week's 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, a number of notable news items surfaced regarding doings at the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Some of these are detailed on the NHC web site, and others I learned by talking to the people at the conference and via emails. Of note:

Saffir-Simpson Scale being redefined
NHC is considering removing any mention of storm surge from the familiar Category 1-2-3-4-5 Saffir-Simpson scale, starting this June. The current definition is primarily based upon wind speed, but storm surge flooding is included as well. The new definition will make the Saffir-Simpson scale exclusively keyed to wind speeds. This change will help pave the way for the proposed Storm Surge Warning, discussed next.

New Storm Surge Warning product proposed
The impact of Hurricane Ike on the Texas coast in 2008 underscored the inadequacy of the Saffir-Simpson scale to characterize storm surge threat. Ike was a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, yet brought a storm surge characteristic of a strong Category 3 hurricane to the coast. Very high storm surges in excess of ten feet were recorded along portions the Louisiana coast, in regions that did not get hurricane force winds. The water level rose four feet above normal at Pascagoula, MS, some 170 miles to the east of the eastern edge of the Hurricane Warning, well before that warning was issued. To address these concerns, NHC is considering issuing a separate storm surge warning. This is great idea, but there are a number of major technical hurdles to leap before this product can be made operational. NHC director Bill Read indicated that official storm surge warnings are probably 3 - 5 years in the future. Among the concerns:

1) What level of water qualifies? Should it be different depending on the location?
2) Should a level of certainty be used (e.g., 40% chance of the surge reaching 5 feet?)
3) Would a "storm surge watch" be issued beforehand?
4) The storm surge can stay elevated for several days after a storm passes. How long would the surge warning stay in effect?


Figure 1. Example of how the proposed new Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning areas would have looked for Hurricane Katrina. NHC is also considering unifying the "Inland Hurricane Wind Warning" and Hurricane Warning (currently only issued for the coast) into one unified Hurricane Warning. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Expanded lead times for hurricane watches and warnings
Currently, NHC issues a Hurricane Watch 36 hours before the potential arrival of hurricane force winds at the coast, and a Hurricane Warning 24 hours in advance. As early as the 2010 season, it is proposed that these lead times be extended to 48 hours for a Watch and 36 hours for a Warning. This would give increased time for people to prepare, at the expense of warning more people unnecessarily. However, hurricane track forecasts have improved so markedly (50% in the past 20 years, with record accuracy again in 2008) that the number of people being over-warned would not significantly change compared to the 1990s.

Cone of Uncertainty reduced in size
For the Atlantic, official NHC forecasts for track in 2008 were the best ever, for both short range (12, 24, 48 hour) and longer range (3 - 5 days). As a result, NHC will be modestly reducing the size of the "cone of uncertainty" for 2009. Recall that the "cone of uncertainty" is set so that 2/3 of all track errors over the past five years will fall inside the cone. You're definitely not safe if you're in the cone, and 1/3 of the time, storms will deviate outside the cone!

Personnel changes
In response to recommendations made from a panel investigating morale problems at NHC in the wake of the July 2007 revolt by NHC employees against then-director Bill Proenza, a new branch chief position--head of the hurricane forecasters-- has been created and filled. The new branch chief of the Hurricane Specialists Unit is former senior hurricane forecaster James Franklin. He will now devote 80% of his time to administrative matters, and will be performing only one shift per week doing hurricane forecasting. Senior hurricane specialist Dr. Rick Knabb is gone, he left last year to head the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. NHC has hired Dr. Michael Brennan, who came on board during the tail end of the 2008 season, was hired to fill this vacancy. NHC will be short one hurricane forecaster during the 2009 season, as senior hurricane forecaster Stacy Stewart has been called up for military reserve duty.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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294. SunriseSteeda
2:10 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Quoting KEHCharleston:
288. SunriseSteeda
Will they work even though you have not signed up for service (land lines that is)?

In other words, I have Bell South, if I discontinue Bell South, during declared emergencies would the land line work?


That is a good question. I do not know the answer, however.

I imagine it would depend on how "discontinued service" is actually defined these days.

If you are shut off merely by software (i.e., BellSouth can control/automate it local to them, and just not send you any juice) then it would be at least feasible.

However if discontinuing service entails manual disconnection, whether at your site, or at a substation local to you, then I doubt you'd have storm service regardless of your subscription to the landline or not!

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
293. SunriseSteeda
1:59 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Quoting vortfix:
Oh geesh I remember Donna!
That one affected every state on the whole east coast if I remember correctly.
I was a kid then but everyone here was all boarded up for that one.



Until I moved to Florida, I was too young to care much about hurricanes and tropical events. I was, prior to moving to this state, a central Georgia resident (A very small town called Gray, just outside of Macon -- and home of Otis Redding, the Allman Brothers, and the Old Clinton BBQ featured on Dirty Jobs).

But even then, there was period from the end of the season in 1979 until the summer of 1980 in which I knew some storms by their names -- David, Frederick and Alan.

David and Frederick caused us to have at least half a dozen episodes of tornado warnings while in school -- which meant piling into the hallway and sitting and tucking our heads. Was the first time I actually physically saw a tornado. The flooding washed out the bridge of the creek separating us from the main road. We had to bump over a couple of miles of cow pasture to get out, for several weeks!

And then Alan cut short my vacation with friends in Panama City the next year.

Anyway here are some snippets from the net on those storms:

Hurricane David
August 28, 1979
Hurricane David was a powerful hurricane that cut a pathway across the Caribbean, eventually making landfall in the southeast United States. Hurricane David raked the island of Dominica before reaching its maximum strength and making the next landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Top sustained winds were 175 mph. Hurricane David was greatly weakened over the mountainous terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but started to restrengthen as it emerged off the coast of Haiti. David was moving directly toward Miami, then made a slight shift northwest only hours before hitting the coast. Hurricane David paralleled the east coast of Florida and finally moved inland on the coast of Georgia near Savannah.

Hurricane Frederick
September 12, 1979
Hurricane Frederick followed closely on the heels of Hurricane David. Hurricane Frederick moved through the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm after a very brief stint as a hurricane east of the islands. In a similar manner, Frederick hit the Dominican Republic. Frederick made landfall as a tropical storm very near where Hurricane David came ashore only days before. Frederick continued westward near Cuba in a weakened state then started to strengthen it it turned northward. Frederick intensified before making its last landfall at Dauphin Island Alabama. Top winds were estimated at 135 mph.

Hurricane Allen
August 8, 1980
Hurricane Allen at the time, was the second strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At it's strongest, top sustained winds were 190 mph with a central pressure of 899 millibars. This was only the second time that a hurricane pressure was measured this low. Since then, Allen has dropped to the fifth lowest pressure with Hurricane Wilma, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Rita all surpassing it.


J
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292. Skyepony (Mod)
1:48 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Australia beaches 'disaster zone'
.. The oil leak came from the Hong Kong registered ship, Pacific Adventurer, after it was damaged in stormy weather generated by tropical cyclone Hamish. The Sunshine Coast is one of Australia's most popular tourist destinations with several maj...



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
291. SunriseSteeda
1:45 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Quoting bappit:


LOL! Are the insurance companies really that slow?

Since I visit BR from Houston, I may be desensitized to blue tarps. Come to think of it, I did see some tarps when I was there at Christmas. They are pretty much gone here in Houston. I got my shingles fixed without getting a blue tarp after Ike, i.e., the insurance didn't pay for it (deductible). Of course, losing shingles is nothing compared to recent blog pics of the Bolivar peninsula. I suspect Gustav left similar damage down by Grand Isle though I think its surge was smaller.


I saw a blue tarp (in my development) yesterday, and I am west of Fort Lauderdale. I have noticed that some homeowners did NOT replace their roofs after Wilma. The one I saw may have been one that finally has to get the roof replaced.

I just drove up 94th ave this morning in Sunrise (before reading this) and was noting the 2-3 houses that are still missing shingles from over 3 years ago.

In fact, I just repaired some previously unnoticed damage from Hurricane Wilma while painting the 2nd story of my house a couple of weekends ago! (may explain why I continued to take on water in my walls after the new roof was installed in 06).
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
290. KEHCharleston
1:44 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
288. SunriseSteeda
Will they work even though you have not signed up for service (land lines that is)?

In other words, I have Bell South, if I discontinue Bell South, during declared emergencies would the land line work?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
289. SunriseSteeda
1:40 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Quoting StormW:
Thought some may be interested. Good article and graphics.

I'm out.

REGIONAL EFFECTS OF ENSO ON U.S. HURRICANE LANDFALLS


Thanks for the link, that was indeed interesting reading.

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
288. SunriseSteeda
1:29 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Does anyone know??

Someone told me that even though you do not have a land line phone service, that in times of a declared emergency, a phone connected to land line jacks will work.
I suspect that they are confusing the fact that their land line telephone will work even though electricity is out (assuming you are not using a remote phone system).


Land lines work during outages only so long as the phone company site that powers your part of the network DOES have power (battery backup or generator).

After Wilma, cell and landlines were up for several days until everyone ran out of gas for their generators. Landlines were out for the first time in my (long) memory.

http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/question62.htm

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
287. charlottefl
1:08 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Thanks.

Quoting tkeith:
LinkDont know if this is relevant to the question on SAL this year. It's an Oct.2008 article on flooding in the Sahara...
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
286. charlottefl
1:08 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Sorry to get off topic, doing blog construction, anyone know how to center a blog pic?
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285. Orcasystems
1:03 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam

Mirror Site



Current Home weather station data.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
284. tkeith
12:32 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
LinkDont know if this is relevant to the question on SAL this year. It's an Oct.2008 article on flooding in the Sahara...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8912
283. charlottefl
12:25 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Looks like we're about to join the 700 club. Along with about 7 other counties in the center of the state that have (modified for southern english coming out ;) has) fire index #'s in the 700's. We really need some rain.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
282. charlottefl
12:20 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Anyone see any info on SAL forecasts for the upcoming season? Dr. M?
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281. KEHCharleston
12:17 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Here in SC, when we were taught state history, I do not remember storms as being part of the lessons. They should have been. Perhaps we would have a better appreciation of the possibility of storms, if we were taught the full history of these storms in our area - as part of history class. Think of the effect the Hurricane of 1893 (I think it was)- 2000 lives lost!. Why wouldn't that be taught along with other events that shaped the state?

Then again, maybe it is my memory that is faulty LOL

EDITED FOR CLARITY
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
280. vortfix
12:17 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
Oh geesh I remember Donna!
That one affected every state on the whole east coast if I remember correctly.
I was a kid then but everyone here was all boarded up for that one.

279. charlottefl
12:12 PM GMT on March 13, 2009
When I was growing up I never could figure out why my dad talked so much about Hurricane Donna, but he did, all the time. It was 44 year between Donna and Charley, and although we had small storms, a few hurricanes brush the area, no direct hits. Then in 2004 Charley hit. And I get it know. Cause every time someone mentions about hurricanes not being so bad and wanting to stay for a major one I remind them about Charley, mainly just like my Dad used to talk to me about Donna. But during that time there were really only a few people left in the area who had been through Donna, so, yeah it's a learning process for most.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
278. Stlouiskid
11:43 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Vortfix,it is very noticable here that there has not been much precip. We only recieved 1 snowfall over 3 inches all winter. Very little rain, and when it does come, it is usually just storms, none of the all-day-rain events.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
277. vortfix
10:58 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
You're not alone GBlet.
It is dry all over:


2009 across the US is the driest ever


When we look at the first two months of 2009 across the entire country, the precipitation numbers are staggering. January and February of 2009 are the driest start of any year since the USA began keeping records over a century ago, leading to severe drought in Texas and California, dipping reservoir levels in Florida and a surge in wildfires across the nation.

Richard Heim, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center, said the 2.69-inch average rainfall across the U.S. in January and February is the least amount of moisture in those months since NOAA began keeping records in 1895.
Link
276. surfmom
10:37 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
TRunck Moneky, put a word in for Florida, We're the Lady In Red.......don't want a hot flash.

Small fires everywhere, after viewing those Aussies Videos - I'm very edgy. Not fun going to work out East of I75 in SWFL/SRQ and checking the wind - to decide which is the safest way out in case of fire.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
275. surfmom
10:33 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Hola - 62 degrees
Same 'ol same 'ol... Continued blue skies and warmer with the Gulf mimicking a puddle! No ripples insight as we become more hungry for surf on the GC. Waves still fun East side with light winds and sunny skies. Looking farther into the crystal ball, doesn't look like any swell makers until possibly late next work week. Gulf Temp 65
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
274. trunkmonkey
10:21 AM GMT on March 13, 2009


273. aspectre 7:56 AM GMT on March 13, 2009 Hide this comment.
170. GBlet "Greetings from the "dustbowl"! Does anyone have any info on when we might get some moisture return here in Kansas? ...Could use a little long range info."

La Nina conditions correlate with lower-than-normal precipitation in the SouthCentral region (including Kansas).
This year, La Nina is expected to remain in place up to sometime between May and July. ie I wouldn't expect the drought to break anytime soon.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


The Texas drought area has gotten several inches of rain in the past few day, and more rain is predicted for that area.
I like when CNN has stories on droughts, its seems right after the stories are run, large amounts of moisture arrive.
Example, Northern California, then they recieved several feet of snow.
They ran a story about the horrible drought in Texas last week, now they are getting soakers.
When I have a drought in my state, i'm contacting CNN to run a story about it, then it will rain.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
273. aspectre
7:56 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
170. GBlet "Greetings from the "dustbowl"! Does anyone have any info on when we might get some moisture return here in Kansas? ...Could use a little long range info."

La Nina conditions correlate with lower-than-normal precipitation in the SouthCentral region (including Kansas).
This year, La Nina is expected to remain in place up to sometime between May and July. ie I wouldn't expect the drought to break anytime soon.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
272. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:22 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI (CAT 2)
19:00 PM NZDT March 13 2009
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Joni, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 27.0S 160.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots close to the center. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 miles from the center

Gale Force Winds
====================
150 miles of center in the southeastern semi-circle
60 miles of center in northwest semi-circle
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
271. KoritheMan
7:17 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
On a related note, it's unfortunate that after years without a significant hurricane strike in a given location, it typically takes another major hurricane to strike an area that has been spared for a few years, in order for the general public to wake up, and remember that it can, and will, happen to them.

It was like that for NOLA until Katrina, and even then, the people didn't heed the warnings enough (admittedly, it wasn't all their fault, seeing as how some of them couldn't possibly get out because they were in a bad condition, or something, but some of the people who could've left, stayed in spite of how obviously large and powerful Katrina was). The last significant hurricane to affect NOLA prior to Katrina was Betsy in 1965 -- that's a remarkable 40 year gap, and it's not surprising that the general public became complacent because of that prolonged lull in major hurricane frequency.

Still though, even with that in mind, it should've been obvious to anyone what kind of a monster Katrina would be, especially due to its abnormally large size. Even if the storm had struck near, say, Gulf Shores eastward to Pensacola, NOLA would've still received tropical storm force gusts, and possibly even sustained tropical storm force winds.

The point is (the earlier post of mine addressing Wayne about wanting a hurricane reminded me of this, and prompted me to make this post), that dare I say it is a bad thing if a major hurricane doesn't impact a given area for any longer than 10 years, because the majority become complacent, even though they shouldn't. The memory of prior storms alone should be enough to dissuade complacency and encourage appropriate action. Unfortunately, since this doesn't occur, hurricanes are worse than they otherwise could be in terms of fatalities and injuries. It's pretty pitiful that people are so stubborn that it takes multiple repeats of a given event for them to finally wake up -- some never do at all. I'm afraid that even if Wayne, as he so desires, gets hit by a hurricane, he will quickly forget the lesson taught to him by nature, and it will take another one, one that could possibly be worse than the one he's hoping for, to put him in the right direction.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
270. charlottefl
5:10 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Hurricanes are fascinating, I can tell you having been through Charley though I don't wish that upon anyone... Speaking of canes, probably gonna do a weather station test without power to prepare for the upcoming season, see if I can still upload data to WU in the event of a storm.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
269. JRRP
4:33 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
mmm.....
14-15
7-8
2-3
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268. KoritheMan
4:27 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:
257. G35Wayne 8:04 PM PDT on March 12, 2009
I want a hurricane



care full what you wish for you may get it


Yeah... I was like that prior to Gustav, and learned my lesson.

Admittedly, the wind and rain of a hurricane is fascinating to me, and so I don't complain when one comes around. But I also understand that human lives are affected, and in some cases, destroyed, by these ferocious storms. Thus, I'll never wish for a hurricane, in spite of how exciting it can be.

Wayne, as Taz said, be careful what you wish for. Don't underestimate the power of nature.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
267. Tazmanian
4:17 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
257. G35Wayne 8:04 PM PDT on March 12, 2009
I want a hurricane



care full what you wish for you may get it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
266. HIEXPRESS
3:53 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
261. bappit
Are the insurance companies really that slow?
262. KoritheMan
Yes.

A major company, who shall remain nameless, but is "on your side", lowballed me quickly, offering 1/2 of a three tab roof. With each new adjuster, an installed square of shingles got more expensive and harder to come by. It ended up costing them twice my original request. I ended up with 40yr Dim., but I was under a blue tarp for seven months. LOL
Gulf Will Be More Deadly If Data Buoys Are Deserted
The Tampa Tribune
Published: March 12, 2009
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265. RobDaHood
3:47 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
252. KEHCharleston

I think they are confused too.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30688
264. RobDaHood
3:45 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
251. StormW

Thanks Storm. Nice to see you again.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30688
263. SevereHurricane
3:45 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Quoting bappit:


LOL! Are the insurance companies really that slow?

Since I visit BR from Houston, I may be desensitized to blue tarps. Come to think of it, I did see some tarps when I was there at Christmas. They are pretty much gone here in Houston. I got my shingles fixed without getting a blue tarp after Ike, i.e., the insurance didn't pay for it (deductible). Of course, losing shingles is nothing compared to recent blog pics of the Bolivar peninsula. I suspect Gustav left similar damage down by Grand Isle though I think its surge was smaller.


Honestly some of the Insurance Companies are rediculous here is SE LA. Numerous people will tell you a story about all the trouble the Insurance companies gave people after Hurricane Katrina.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
262. KoritheMan
3:40 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Are the insurance companies really that slow?

Yes.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
261. bappit
3:30 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:
Someone driving through Baton Rouge today probably would not be aware that a hurricane had passed by last September.

Unless they were alert and wondered about all of the blue tarps still on a bunch of rooftops.


LOL! Are the insurance companies really that slow?

Since I visit BR from Houston, I may be desensitized to blue tarps. Come to think of it, I did see some tarps when I was there at Christmas. They are pretty much gone here in Houston. I got my shingles fixed without getting a blue tarp after Ike, i.e., the insurance didn't pay for it (deductible). Of course, losing shingles is nothing compared to recent blog pics of the Bolivar peninsula. I suspect Gustav left similar damage down by Grand Isle though I think its surge was smaller.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
260. TampaSpin
3:10 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
I will be running a College Basketball Charity Pool for PortLight Strategies on my Personal Web Site. There will be great Prizes and will be lots of fun and Smack Talk allowed....LOL. Details coming very soon. Again it will be held with all details on my Web Site. This will be a Charity event and hope that many will sign on.

TampaSpins Web Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
259. HIEXPRESS
3:09 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Could something like these be used as a type of HH drone? Among the uses could be monitoring subsurface SSTs, loops, etc. , and maybe monitoring changes in subsurface currents in coastal areas during surge events.
They are already being used to hunt red tide. (But not in October - LOL)
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258. GBlet
3:08 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Does anyone know what phase we were in the first week of May 2007?
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257. G35Wayne
3:04 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
I want a hurricane
256. charlottefl
3:02 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Just remember Hurricane Andrew happened during an El Nino year with 6 storms. It's not how many you have , it's the ones that make landfall that make a difference.
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255. GBlet
2:52 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
So, how do the La twins and their cuz Enso affect tornado season?
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254. CaneAddict
2:35 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Good evening all!...I thought i'd sweep through and let everyone know that I am upgrading my site in many ways and for those that didn't know about it last year I had a few fools posting innapropiate comments on my website and blog..I now have a feature where you must register with your e-mail to post comments. So please go ahead and register so you can join in on the discussions and post comments. I plan to come out with a blog update sometime this week.

Canewatch Hurricane Center

On the top right of the home page click "Register".

Thanks alot!
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253. Skyepony (Mod)
2:30 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Voodoo ha..enso is my doll. Guess it's too early for my numbers. Need a better feel for SST, duldrums, shear, hots spots & loop eddys for all that.

ENSO is hard to call that far out. Many models are calling for a raging El NiƱo by the end of season, with the start ruled by neutral conditions. Which would generally start things off more active as far as landfalls & end in storms mostly curving out to sea (or well sorry Bermuda). Cool side of neutral start is pretty likely, in my opinion, so caribbean & gulf would begin the season off at more risk. If ENSO continues to warm to the warm side of neutral or weak El Nino, higher risk would shift to the east coast. Pacific looks recharged atleast for a Neutral end in my opinion. Storms also seem atracted to drought so TX & FL gotta up your chances..
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252. KEHCharleston
2:27 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Does anyone know??

Someone told me that even though you do not have a land line phone service, that in times of a declared emergency, a phone connected to land line jacks will work.
I suspect that they are confusing the fact that their land line telephone will work even though electricity is out (assuming you are not using a remote phone system).
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
250. GeoffreyWPB
2:11 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Amazing how fast time goes by..

Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:38 PM EST on November 25, 2008

The hurricane season of 2008 draws to a close on Sunday, but leaves behind an indelible mark in history and in the lives of the millions of people it affected. After two years of relative tranquility, the active hurricane period that began in 1995 returned in full force this year, living up to pre-season predictions. It was a top ten hurricane season when considering the total number of named storms and major hurricanes, and ranked 24th using a better measure of total seasonal activity, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Hurricane records in the Atlantic go back to 1851. An ACE index of 95-100 is average, so this year's ACE of 141 puts this season at about 45% more active than average. The remainder of this post will list some notable statistics, records, and events that occurred during the hurricane season of 2008. It is by no means an exhaustive list, and I could have added much more.

First, here's how this season measured up to other seasons:

6th most named storms (16; the record is 28 in 2005)
25th most hurricanes (8; the record is 15 in 2005)
9th most major hurricanes (5; the record is 8 in 1950)
24th highest ACE index (141; the record is 250 in 2005)
13th highest Named Storm Days (84.75; record is 136 in 1933)
40th highest Hurricane Days (29.5; the record is 62.5 in 1995)
28th highest Major Hurricane Days (8.5; the record is 24.5 in 1961)
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249. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:08 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
77 days and counting
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248. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:04 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
iam out on the limb and i also got a saw with me too
no one knows for sure and we have 2 months and 17 days to figure it out
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247. KEHCharleston
2:04 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
I will not remember next week what my guess was. Let's hope we all guess high.
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246. SevereHurricane
2:01 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Lets go...

15-17
7-9
4-6
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245. hahaguy
1:59 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Can't wait for the "fun" to start also...It's a shame we have to hope for a tropical system to give so. fla. our much needed rain.


I hear ya
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
244. GeoffreyWPB
1:58 AM GMT on March 13, 2009
Can't wait for the "fun" to start also...It's a shame we have to hope for a tropical system to give so. fla. our much needed rain.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.