Weather and mortality

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on February 27, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

Hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes get the attention-grabbing headlines when a natural disaster kills people in the U.S. Yet heat waves, cold winter weather, severe thunderstorm winds, and flooding all killed more people in the U.S. between 1970 and 2004, according to a December 2008 article published by Kevin Borden and Susan Cutter of the University of South Carolina. Tornadoes and lightning were tied for fifth place, and Hurricanes and earthquakes tied for eighth place. However, had this study extended one more year into 2005, the roughly 1800 hurricane deaths from Hurricane Katrina would have vaulted hurricane deaths into third place, behind heat wave deaths and cold weather deaths. The study also showed that people living in rural areas were most likely to die from a natural disaster than those living in cities.


Figure 1. U.S. deaths due to natural hazards between 1970 and 2004 showed that weather associated with extremes of hot and cold weather, along with severe thunderstorm winds (the "Severe Weather" category), killed the most people. Image credit: Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States, International Journal of Health Geographics. Authors: Kevin Borden and Susan Cutter of the University of South Carolina.

The authors used Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States (SHELDUS)(available at http://www.sheldus.org). This database provides hazard loss information (economic losses and casualties) from 1960-2005 for eighteen different hazard types, and is primarily based on data from the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center publication, "Storm Data". The numbers have high uncertainty, and the authors conclude, "There is considerable debate about which natural hazard is the most "deadly". According to our results, the answer is heat. But this finding could be changed depending on the data source, or how hazards within a data source are grouped."


Figure 2. U.S. deaths due to natural hazards for the 10- and 30-year period ending in 2007, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Image credit: NOAA.

To illustrate, a 2008 study by Thacker et al. called, "Overview of deaths associated with natural events, United States, 1979-2004", concluded that cold deaths were twice as common as heat deaths in the U.S. However, they noted that the 1995 Chicago heat wave, which killed between 600 and 700 people by some estimates, was not properly represented in the data base used in their study. This data base attributed only 50 deaths in the entire state of Illinois to heat in 1995. The authors conclude that their data base "under-reports the actual number of deaths due to severe heat".

Another example: NOAA plots up annual natural hazard deaths from the same source ("Storm Data") as the first study I montioned. Their statistics for the ten-year period ending in 2007 show a much different picture (Figure 2). Heat deaths are a much more dominant source of mortality than cold and winter storm deaths, by a factor 3.5. The take-home message from all this is that heat- and cold-related extreme weather are probably the deadliest weather hazards in the U.S., but we really don't know the proportion of people killed by each. One can easily cherry pick the study of one's choice to show a desired result.

How global warming might affect heat and cold-related deaths
If the globe continues to warm up this century, as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), heat-related deaths will increase and cold-related deaths will decrease (duh!). Unfortunately, that's about the most intelligent thing one can say about the matter. The 2007 IPCC report (section 8.4.1.3, Heat- and cold-related mortality), does not attempt to estimate the numbers, saying, "Additional research is needed to understand how the balance of heat-related and cold-related mortality could change under different socio-economic scenarios and climate projections."

This high uncertainty in future heat- and cold-related deaths does not stop advocates on either side of the global warming issue from cherry picking results from selected studies to support a particular point of view. For example, opinion columnist George Will stated in a recent Newsweek column: "In Europe, cold kills more than seven times as many as heat does. Worldwide, moderate warming will, on balance, save more lives than it will cost--by a 9-to-1 ratio in China and India. So, if substantially cutting carbon dioxide reverses warming, that will mean a large net loss of life globally." Will bases his arguments on Danish statistician Bjørn Lomborg's controversial 2007 book, "Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming." However, as pointed out by Danish biologist Kåre Fog, who has assembled a large web site dedicated to pointing out the errors in Lomborg's books, the huge number of excess deaths attributed to cold by Will and Lomborg are in large part because the death rate naturally rises in the winter: "Old and seriously sick people have less vitality in the dark season. It is too bold to say that the excess deaths during the dark part of the year are `deaths due to excess cold?. There is no evidence that a warmer climate will alter the seasonal variation. These people would soon die in any case, even if winters became warmer. Indeed, cold and warm climates, like Finland and Greece, have approximately the same seasonal variation in mortality." The IPCC underscores this problem, stating: "projections of cold-related deaths, and the potential for decreasing their numbers due to warmer winters, can be overestimated unless they take into account the effects of influenza and season".

Heat wave deaths are subject to a degree of uncertainty as well. It is somewhat of a subjective call if an elderly person who dies during a heat wave died primarily as a result of the heat, or of a pre-existing heart or respiratory condition. Complicating the diagnosis is the fact that air pollution is at its worst during heat waves, and can also be blamed as the cause of death in some cases. Different studies will use different criteria for classify deaths due to heat, pollution, or pre-existing medical conditions during a heat wave, leading to widely varying estimates of mortality. For example, the European heat wave of 2003 is blamed for 35,000, 52,000, or 70,000 deaths, depending upon the source. You're more likely to hear the higher 70,000 figure quoted by advocates of doing something about global warming, and the 35,000 figure quoted by those opposed.

The three 2008 studies for the U.S. show the ratio of cold deaths to heat deaths ranges from 2:1 to 1:3, which is very different from the 7:1 and 9:1 figures quoted by Will and Lomborg for Europe, India, and China. I don't trust any of these numbers, since heat and cold mortality statistics are highly uncertain and easy to cherry pick to show a desired result. It is rather unproductive to argue about how many people die due to heat and cold in the current climate or in a future climate. Excess heat deaths due to climate change should not get as much attention as the potential for death due to reduction in crop yields due to increased heat and drought, regional collapses of the oceanic food chain from the steady acidification of the oceans, and the wars these conditions might trigger.

For more information
For those interested, Kåre Fog also presents a list of the errors in Al Gore's book and movie, An Inconvenient Truth, and has a Comparison of error counts between Al Gore and Bjørn Lomborg. Lomborg has assembled a Short reply to Skeptical Questions to respond to some of Fog's criticisms, but does not answer Fog's criticism on cold deaths vs. heat deaths. Suffice to say, one should be wary of trusting climate change information from either source, or from opinion columnists, or from politicians. Blogs can also be a questionable source of climate change information, though I think wunderground Climate Change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood is one of the most knowledgeable and unbiased climate change experts in the world. Though imperfect, the best source of climate change information is the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The level of scientific collaboration and peer review that went into that document is one of the most remarkable achievements in the history of science, and the IPCC was fully deserving of the Nobel Prize awarded to it last year. Blogs and books like Lomborg's and Gore's have not gone through peer-review by scientific experts on climate change, and will have far more errors, biases, and distortions of the truth than the IPCC reports.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 272 - 222

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Gale warnings here on the NW Fl coastal waters. Windy all night long, and currently 39 degrees, but the wind chill makes it 30. March definitely "in like a lion".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm pissed,I'm going to NYC march 11-16 and was hoping for snow,EVERY time I go up they seem to get a snowstorm a week before.....by the way I'm down here in sarasota,fl and if I go to nyc and get snow,I still get to come home to warm sunny FL...anyone have any links to any general forcast trends for the 10-14 day time period?????


Don't worry, I know how you feel,
everytime I leave town the weather gets unusually bad.That always will get me really mad.


Has anyone heard from Melwerle???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
259 -- sure is a nasty one...check out the purple
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Aussie -- not happy to read this fire information -- your lovely country has had enough suffering. Those videos, you posted in the past, have really scared me -- but probably scared me smarter -- we're so dry here in SWFL, specially out East in the Cattle areas, where I work at the Polo grounds -- the grass dry and dead from the past frost........ we could easily go *poof*. After viewing those video's I see how much of this land is identical to the Aussie lands that burned........... of course we haven't had the extreme heat...........but goodness we need rain --- I never want to see that nightmare happen here. Been checking wind direction --especially when they do a controlled burn ...... it's a place that has only two roads out----
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm pissed,I'm going to NYC march 11-16 and was hoping for snow,EVERY time I go up they seem to get a snowstorm a week before.....by the way I'm down here in sarasota,fl and if I go to nyc and get snow,I still get to come home to warm sunny FL...anyone have any links to any general forcast trends for the 10-14 day time period?????


you my dear Florida Boy are LOCO --LOL-- I thought you moved down here to get away from that white stuff....... I much prefer the white beach sand to snow.

Can you see any waves yet???
Going to be running by your hacienda in Around an hour. I may have waves tomorrow AM if it's not too cold. Got work this afternoon
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
67 degrees SWFL - 29.91 Can feel the weather moving in here..... very dramatic sky -- sadly this doesn't look to be much of a rain event for us here Tampa & below. Grrrrrrr

and......... it will pass in enough time that I have work.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
I'm pissed,I'm going to NYC march 11-16 and was hoping for snow,EVERY time I go up they seem to get a snowstorm a week before.....by the way I'm down here in sarasota,fl and if I go to nyc and get snow,I still get to come home to warm sunny FL...anyone have any links to any general forcast trends for the 10-14 day time period?????
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
you keep doing your happy dance and you may get some snow yourself..lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
260. AussieStorm - I am sorry to hear that, and will keep you all in thoughts and prayers.

Woken up by thunder on and off during the wee hours of the morning. Tornado watch until 10 am, however, I see no 'tornado vortex signature' on the WU Nexrad for Charleston. Some hail to our southwest may make its way to the Charleston area.(Looks like Savannah might be getting some hail, as I type).
I've given up on sleeping, hence the rambling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tuesday conditions to rival Black Saturday bushfires
Article from: Sunday Herald Sun

AAP

March 01, 2009

SEVERE weather in Victoria on Tuesday could rival the horror conditions of Black Saturday, and wind will be the enemy, emergency services have warned.

Victorians should prepare for strong winds on Monday night, with damaging northerly gale-force winds of up to 150km/h predicted for Tuesday, followed by a strong south-westerly wind change that is forecast to continue until Wednesday.

Schools may have to close on Tuesday, depending on fire risk assessments, while travel and recreational plans in high-danger areas should be reconsidered, authorities have advised.

Emergency Services Commissioner Bruce Esplin said the predicted conditions were serious.

"The weather forecast is for conditions that could approximate Black Saturday or Ash Wednesday," Mr Esplin told a briefing on Sunday.

"There is no room for complacency and there is a very strong need for everybody to be prepared to play their part."

Country Fire Authority (CFA) crews are battling blazes at Wilsons Promontory, Bunyip, and two Kilmore-Murrindindi complexes.

The total area burnt from the four fires so far is 302,875 hectares.

Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) chief fire officer Craige Brown (Craige Brown) said the Kilmore East-Murrindindi North fire could breach containment lines on Tuesday.

"There is an expectation that under the wind event on Tuesday that fire will break out and make a run towards Melbourne water catchments," Mr Brown said.

He said authorities were likely to position strike teams around the Woods Point area to protect communities against any fire movement.

CFA chief officer Russell Rees said additional resources had been committed from Monday night to prepare for increased fire activity.

"History shows that fires that start in the night cause the most confusion and the most difficulty," he said.

"To wake up in the morning to have fire around and on your doorstep is a terrifying thing."

He warned that winds could grow even stronger after the expected change than the peak northerly gusts on Tuesday.

Fire plans should be activated early on Monday to avoid panic and traffic congestion on the roads in the event of fire outbreaks, Mr Rees said.

"Tomorrow, you need to put in place your plan ... because it may be that if you think you're going to move Tuesday morning, the trees are down across the road, fire is already in your area."

Police will suspend searches for people missing from the February 7 bushfires disaster on Tuesday due to safety concerns for members, Victoria Police assistant commissioner Steve Fontana said.

"We will be suspending our search activities in those particular areas," he said.

On Saturday, Australian Army Brigadier Michael Arnold, commander of the Joint Task Force assisting Victorian authorities in the fire relief effort, said new teams of soldiers would begin a repeat search of devastated properties for disaster victims still missing.

"We know that there are 37 missing persons still. The odds are we will come across human remains during this search," Brigadier Arnold said.

But Mr Fontana on Sunday said it was not known how many people remained missing.

"At the moment, police are going through all the records that have been provided on the National Registration Inquiry system," Mr Fontana said.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thats one nasty SuperCell

Photobucket
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting melwerle:
Things are starting to make noise here in a huge way...i think i'm going to go sit out on the porch and watch it come through...lightnig etc..see ya.....not sounding great. heavy rumblings.


Ohh crud! Thats you!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
239 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

GAC029-179-010815-
/O.CON.KCHS.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090301T0815Z/
BRYAN GA-LIBERTY GA-
239 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM EST FOR
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND CENTRAL BRYAN COUNTIES...

AT 239 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TRINITY...OR ABOUT
8 MILES NORTH OF HINESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
BLITCHTON...ELLABELL...GUM BRANCH...LANIER AND RICHMOND HILL.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND
POWER LINES...PLEASE CONTACT THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 3187 8175 3191 8176 3196 8175 3200 8181
3223 8143 3219 8141 3211 8140 3207 8136
3205 8136 3197 8129 3194 8128 3184 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0739Z 245DEG 25KT 3195 8163


I hope you make it out ok!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
257. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin (0600z 01MAR)
===============================================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Low [1000 hPa] located at 11.3S 102.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east-southeast at 8 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.1S 103.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 13.0S 105.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 14.3S 106.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 15.9S 103.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=====================
DT2.0 based on shear pattern analysis with separation holding steadily between 0.75 and 1.25 degrees with a reasonably well defined LLCC. MET matches and FT is assigned to 2.0. Scatterometry is indicating near gales to the northwest. Shear currently well over 20 knots and likely to limit development during today but shear expected to drop a little on Monday as the mid latitude trough to the south pushes the ridge northwards and provides good upper divergence to the south of the system centre.

System expected to track SE over the next day or so. Model guidance is consistently forecasting the system to then recurve towards the southwest with a strong mid level anticyclone retrogressing from the east
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evil Whale! No snow here! None...
I repeat - It is NOT SNOWING here!
Keep on Dancing... and you might trip over your tarnished halo! LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:


Happy Dance Happy Dance... snow in Florida :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hi all!
What a mess! Funny, earlier today they were not predicting a lot of snow for parts of TN that are getting it! My cousin told me that she expected to be snowed in for at least 24 hours... said she could feel it in her bones!

Predictions for snow in the FL panhandle... geez, I hope not! My bones say NO! LOL


Happy Dance Happy Dance... snow in Florida :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Things are starting to make noise here in a huge way...i think i'm going to go sit out on the porch and watch it come through...lightnig etc..see ya.....not sounding great. heavy rumblings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi all!
What a mess! Funny, earlier today they were not predicting a lot of snow for parts of TN that are getting it! My cousin told me that she expected to be snowed in for at least 24 hours... said she could feel it in her bones!

Predictions for snow in the FL panhandle... geez, I hope not! My bones say NO! LOL
Quoting NorthxCakalaky:
Gosh at least I dont live in TN where they are saying this.That would drive me nuts.




Statement as of 9:04 PM CST on February 28, 2009

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am CST Sunday...

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am CST Sunday.

Snow will continue to fall through the overnight hours. Snow will begin
to taper off during the early morning hours. Snow accumulations
between 2 to 13 inches are expected through Sunday morning. The
highest snow amounts will be located across northern
Shelby... Lauderdale... Tipton... Haywood and Crockett counties.
Numerous accidents have been reported. If you must travel... use
caution while driving.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow...
sleet... and ice are expected or occurring. This will make travel
very hazardous or impossible.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alarm went off again a few minutes ago - jumped up and then realized that i had it set for water as well as land! Oops...

anywho...hope tings aren't too nuts tonight..would like to get some kind of rest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't like the south to north set up w/these storms moving in off the GOM overnight,makes for a dangerous/life threatening Tornado setup developing around the big bend area moving east overnight,could be a DEADLY situation overnight,I hope not...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Gosh at least I dont live in TN where they are saying this.That would drive me nuts.




Statement as of 9:04 PM CST on February 28, 2009

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am CST Sunday...

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am CST Sunday.

Snow will continue to fall through the overnight hours. Snow will begin
to taper off during the early morning hours. Snow accumulations
between 2 to 13 inches are expected through Sunday morning. The
highest snow amounts will be located across northern
Shelby... Lauderdale... Tipton... Haywood and Crockett counties.
Numerous accidents have been reported. If you must travel... use
caution while driving.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow...
sleet... and ice are expected or occurring. This will make travel
very hazardous or impossible.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heres the forcast for snow in my area in NC. (28659)
-----------------------------------------------
WXII12= 3-7 "Worried that they might need to increase snow totals because of places west in TN recieved 9inches already.
-----------------------------------------------
Fox8= 2-4 "Forcasted all areas getting 2-4 reguardless of elevation".I wish a different met came on tonight. :(
-----------------------------------------------
Weatherunderground= 1+ Going way lower requardless of the winter storm watch.
-----------------------------------------------
The weather channel= 1-2inches of snow "Im not fully confident when the TWC forcasts snow in the south". < Well at least for my area.
-----------------------------------------------
Winter Storm Watch= 3-5 Pending on track
-----------------------------------------------


Im just gonna prepare myself for 0-9inches of snow I guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Southern heavy rain to snow
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Florida Radar
Will be watching this radar overnight to see whether or not the showers and thunderstorms developing overnight will hold into South Florida. Really hoping it does.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As I had expected earlier, it now appears on the latest satellite imagery that thunderstorms are developing over Northern and Central Florida. Right now, it appears that there could be a possible squall line forming. Any storms that do form will most likely produce strong, gusty winds. Just will have to wait and see whether this all holds as the storms and associated cold front migrate down the peninsula overnight. Really could use the rainfall all across Florida, especially down here in Southern Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
245. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth says 16U.. I guess there were some weak tropical lows that weren't put on the "Active tropical cyclone map"..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 10U
9:50 AM WDT March 1 2009
==============================

At 9:00 AM WDT, Tropical Low [1000 hPa] located at 11.0S 101.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.1S 102.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 13.0S 104.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 14.3S 106.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 15.8S 104.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=====================
DT2.0 based on shear pattern analysis with separation between 0.75 and 1.25 degrees and reasonably well defined LLCC. MET matches and FT is assigned to 2.0. ASCAT pass at 1520Z indicates near gales under convection in western quadrants. Shear currently over 20 knots and likely to limit development during today but shear expected to drop a little from tonight as the mid latitude trough to the
south pushes the ridge northwards and provides good upper divergence to the south of the system center.

System has been moving south but expected to track SE over the next day or so. Model guidance is consistently forecasting the system to then recurve towards the southwest with a strong mid level anticyclone retrogressing from the east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wiki can be a lil fickle due to the self-editing sometimes.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting Patrap:
National Hurricane Center Staff
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Contact information may be found at the NOAA Staff Directory or DOC Person Finder

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Office of the Director


Director
Bill Read



K thanks patrap.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
National Hurricane Center Staff Link
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Contact information may be found at the NOAA Staff Directory or DOC Person Finder

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Office of the Director


Director
Bill Read

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
I was just reading something of wikipedia and it said that bill read isn't the nhc director anymore is that true?
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
218...surfmom - we bailed on it. The winds looked like they were too severe for me to do and I've been really suffering with the crap that is going around to the point where doc took a chest xray on Thurs...on antibiotics, inhalers and red wine (oh wait...I think that is MY rx). I just didn't want to fight 20-30 winds today on the boat...I didn't think I had it in me - first time I've cancelled our bi-weekly race since August over the course of a year. sometimes you just know when you're "done"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Aquak - our alarm went off extending our tornado watch until 3 am...our weather guys are telling us it's not over even though the storm line has gone through so I guess I'll have to refer to the weather dudes. Thanks for keeping us on top of stuff.

Mel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Pilbara region cops a downpour as tropical low unloads on Western Australia
Article from: AAP

March 01, 2009 01:26pm

A TROPICAL low has crossed the Pilbara coast, bringing up to 110mm of rain in some areas, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
Flood warnings were in place for Pilbara coastal streams and the De Grey River catchment at 10am (WDT) today, after between 70 and 110mm of rain was recorded overnight.

"We are locked in for a few days," Colin Brierly, the station owner at Indee, 50km south of Port Hedland, said today.

"Steady rain - it wasn't heavy really, but it just kept raining, and I think we had 112mm.

"We're sort of in between the two Turners (the East Turner tributary and the Turner River), so we're just going to wait for the Turners to go down."

The Turner River at Pincunah was at 1.32m and steady and the Yule River at Jelliabidina was at 0.15m and steady at 9am (WDT) today, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

A flood watch is in place for the Gascoyne and Goldfields district and residents of the Pilbara, Gascoyne River catchment and the Goldfields are advised to put petrol in their cars and move livestock.

The Fire and Emergency Service on Sunday issued a warning about the dangers of diving or playing in floodwaters.

A flood warning for the Ashburton River catchment has been cancelled.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
236. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Disturbance Summary (0300z 01MAR)
============================================
An area of convection (96S) 11.0S 101.E or 255 nm east-northeast of the Cocos Islands. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 28/2255z SSMI/S show a consolidated low level
circulation center with convection sheared to the west. A 28/1502z ascat pass indicates winds of 20 knots near the center, with winds of 30 knots on the outer peripheries. The disturbance remains under moderate vertical wind shear, which is currently the limiting factor for development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. Due to the consolidation of the low level center, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeppars...


Current Conditions


Greenville, Mississippi (Airport)
Updated: 21 min 48 sec ago
36 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 26 °F


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
A Snowstorm Develops in the Mississippi interior.
Someone 's gonna have a White Sunday Morning..

Looks up near Southernlady's way
NEXRAD Radar
Brandon, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
986 pretty respectable center skye..Large system.

Seems winter has another breath to take.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
232. Skyepony (Mod)
96S

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
231. Skyepony (Mod)
Pat~ that big un low takes the current lowest low in atleast the NH at 986mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
230. Skyepony (Mod)
09U...aka 95S


click for loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NOLA NWS 7:13 PM CST

Short term...
most forecast challenges are in the short term portion of the
forecast...and non precipitation related. Upper low will drop into
South Alabama by Sunday morning with strong cold air advection.
Delta T for lakes area and inner coastal waters looks to be about
25 to 30 degrees. That...along with pressure gradient...should
allow winds to howl pretty well from the tidal lakes
southward...beginning some time after sunset tonight. Will issue
Wind Advisory for areas south of the lake...where sustained winds
of 25 miles per hour should be sustainable for at least several hours
overnight. Some potential for advisory to be carried into morning
hours Sunday...but will only run until 12z for now. Winds...along
with temperatures in the 30s...will pull wind chill values into the middle
20s by morning.


Other issue for the overnight hours is a small potential for sleet
or snow across the extreme northeast corner of the County Warning Area after midnight
tonight. Already seeing moderate snow in the Memphis area...which
will translate southeastward across much of Mississippi. Moisture
on 12z soundings showed to be rather shallow across our area...mainly
below 850 mb. New 18z NAM run shows moisture getting to around 800
mb...and -10c...which would be cold enough for dendritic ice
Crystal growth. Precipitation type likely to be in the form of
very light rain...sleet or snow. With track of the low forecast to
be north and east of US...any precipitation will be very light.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
228. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
UPDATE POSITION ON TROPICAL LOW (09U)
=======================================

At 3:00 am WDT, a tropical low was located near 21.8S 118.7E, or about 90 NM south of Port Hedland.

Recent movement: south at 13 knots
Maximum winds: 25 knots near the center
Central pressure: 998 hectopascals
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
227. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Report
of
Geo. G. Earl, Gen'l Supt.
to
Sewerage and Water Board of New Orleans,
October 14th, 1915.a

p3 The Hurricane.Link

To the Honorable President and Members, Sewerage and Water Board of New Orleans:

Gentlemen — The hurricane of September 29th, with its great rainfall, high winds and high tides, put all of the systems operated by the Sewerage and Water Board to the most severe tests.

This storm began on the night of September 28th, with rain and a gradually increasing northeast wind. By 7 a. m. on the 29th the wind had increased to a gale of 40 miles an hour, and during the day both wind and rain increased in intensity until, between 5 and 5:30 p. m., when the Weather Bureau reports there was a sustained wind velocity of over 80 miles an hour,b and velocities up to 120 and 130 miles for the hardest gusts, with 8.2 inches of rainfall and a minimum barometer reading of 28.11 inches.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Thats a great tool to study tracks for sure severe,..

Lot more controls in place than the 1915 Storm here,but track is everthing in a Se to Nw strike here.
Miles and degrees make a Big difference on Surge and who gets the worst.
1915 Hurricane Strike on Se La.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
The ULL Snow Low is Diving South by South-eastLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting Patrap:
Historical Hurricane Tracks

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Historical Hurricane Tracks tool is an interactive mapping application that allows you to easily search and display Atlantic Basin and Eastern North Pacific Basin tropical cyclone data.

Looking for a Specific Storm Track? Curious Where Katrina, Iniki, or Even Donna Made Landfall?

Check out the Query Storm Tracks feature.Link

Easily search for tropical cyclone tracks from Atlantic and Pacific data by entering a ZIP Code, latitude and longitude coordinates, city or state, or geographic region and then view the selected tracks on a map.





I have been having that on my favorites for a while. :D
Can you imagine if we were to have a repeat of the The Great New Orleans Hurricane of 1915?
It realy is a great application and I would recomend it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Aqua for deciphering -- looks like when I get home from work tomorrow I'll have some severe weather to look at and practice radar reading.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536

Viewing: 272 - 222

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron