Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Weather and mortality

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on February 27, 2009

Hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes get the attention-grabbing headlines when a natural disaster kills people in the U.S. Yet heat waves, cold winter weather, severe thunderstorm winds, and flooding all killed more people in the U.S. between 1970 and 2004, according to a December 2008 article published by Kevin Borden and Susan Cutter of the University of South Carolina. Tornadoes and lightning were tied for fifth place, and Hurricanes and earthquakes tied for eighth place. However, had this study extended one more year into 2005, the roughly 1800 hurricane deaths from Hurricane Katrina would have vaulted hurricane deaths into third place, behind heat wave deaths and cold weather deaths. The study also showed that people living in rural areas were most likely to die from a natural disaster than those living in cities.

Figure 1. U.S. deaths due to natural hazards between 1970 and 2004 showed that weather associated with extremes of hot and cold weather, along with severe thunderstorm winds (the "Severe Weather" category), killed the most people. Image credit: Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States, International Journal of Health Geographics. Authors: Kevin Borden and Susan Cutter of the University of South Carolina.

The authors used Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States (SHELDUS)(available at http://www.sheldus.org). This database provides hazard loss information (economic losses and casualties) from 1960-2005 for eighteen different hazard types, and is primarily based on data from the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center publication, "Storm Data". The numbers have high uncertainty, and the authors conclude, "There is considerable debate about which natural hazard is the most "deadly". According to our results, the answer is heat. But this finding could be changed depending on the data source, or how hazards within a data source are grouped."

Figure 2. U.S. deaths due to natural hazards for the 10- and 30-year period ending in 2007, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Image credit: NOAA.

To illustrate, a 2008 study by Thacker et al. called, "Overview of deaths associated with natural events, United States, 1979-2004", concluded that cold deaths were twice as common as heat deaths in the U.S. However, they noted that the 1995 Chicago heat wave, which killed between 600 and 700 people by some estimates, was not properly represented in the data base used in their study. This data base attributed only 50 deaths in the entire state of Illinois to heat in 1995. The authors conclude that their data base "under-reports the actual number of deaths due to severe heat".

Another example: NOAA plots up annual natural hazard deaths from the same source ("Storm Data") as the first study I montioned. Their statistics for the ten-year period ending in 2007 show a much different picture (Figure 2). Heat deaths are a much more dominant source of mortality than cold and winter storm deaths, by a factor 3.5. The take-home message from all this is that heat- and cold-related extreme weather are probably the deadliest weather hazards in the U.S., but we really don't know the proportion of people killed by each. One can easily cherry pick the study of one's choice to show a desired result.

How global warming might affect heat and cold-related deaths
If the globe continues to warm up this century, as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), heat-related deaths will increase and cold-related deaths will decrease (duh!). Unfortunately, that's about the most intelligent thing one can say about the matter. The 2007 IPCC report (section 8.4.1.3, Heat- and cold-related mortality), does not attempt to estimate the numbers, saying, "Additional research is needed to understand how the balance of heat-related and cold-related mortality could change under different socio-economic scenarios and climate projections."

This high uncertainty in future heat- and cold-related deaths does not stop advocates on either side of the global warming issue from cherry picking results from selected studies to support a particular point of view. For example, opinion columnist George Will stated in a recent Newsweek column: "In Europe, cold kills more than seven times as many as heat does. Worldwide, moderate warming will, on balance, save more lives than it will cost--by a 9-to-1 ratio in China and India. So, if substantially cutting carbon dioxide reverses warming, that will mean a large net loss of life globally." Will bases his arguments on Danish statistician Bjørn Lomborg's controversial 2007 book, "Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming." However, as pointed out by Danish biologist Kåre Fog, who has assembled a large web site dedicated to pointing out the errors in Lomborg's books, the huge number of excess deaths attributed to cold by Will and Lomborg are in large part because the death rate naturally rises in the winter: "Old and seriously sick people have less vitality in the dark season. It is too bold to say that the excess deaths during the dark part of the year are `deaths due to excess cold?. There is no evidence that a warmer climate will alter the seasonal variation. These people would soon die in any case, even if winters became warmer. Indeed, cold and warm climates, like Finland and Greece, have approximately the same seasonal variation in mortality." The IPCC underscores this problem, stating: "projections of cold-related deaths, and the potential for decreasing their numbers due to warmer winters, can be overestimated unless they take into account the effects of influenza and season".

Heat wave deaths are subject to a degree of uncertainty as well. It is somewhat of a subjective call if an elderly person who dies during a heat wave died primarily as a result of the heat, or of a pre-existing heart or respiratory condition. Complicating the diagnosis is the fact that air pollution is at its worst during heat waves, and can also be blamed as the cause of death in some cases. Different studies will use different criteria for classify deaths due to heat, pollution, or pre-existing medical conditions during a heat wave, leading to widely varying estimates of mortality. For example, the European heat wave of 2003 is blamed for 35,000, 52,000, or 70,000 deaths, depending upon the source. You're more likely to hear the higher 70,000 figure quoted by advocates of doing something about global warming, and the 35,000 figure quoted by those opposed.

The three 2008 studies for the U.S. show the ratio of cold deaths to heat deaths ranges from 2:1 to 1:3, which is very different from the 7:1 and 9:1 figures quoted by Will and Lomborg for Europe, India, and China. I don't trust any of these numbers, since heat and cold mortality statistics are highly uncertain and easy to cherry pick to show a desired result. It is rather unproductive to argue about how many people die due to heat and cold in the current climate or in a future climate. Excess heat deaths due to climate change should not get as much attention as the potential for death due to reduction in crop yields due to increased heat and drought, regional collapses of the oceanic food chain from the steady acidification of the oceans, and the wars these conditions might trigger.

For more information
For those interested, Kåre Fog also presents a list of the errors in Al Gore's book and movie, An Inconvenient Truth, and has a Comparison of error counts between Al Gore and Bjørn Lomborg. Lomborg has assembled a Short reply to Skeptical Questions to respond to some of Fog's criticisms, but does not answer Fog's criticism on cold deaths vs. heat deaths. Suffice to say, one should be wary of trusting climate change information from either source, or from opinion columnists, or from politicians. Blogs can also be a questionable source of climate change information, though I think wunderground Climate Change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood is one of the most knowledgeable and unbiased climate change experts in the world. Though imperfect, the best source of climate change information is the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The level of scientific collaboration and peer review that went into that document is one of the most remarkable achievements in the history of science, and the IPCC was fully deserving of the Nobel Prize awarded to it last year. Blogs and books like Lomborg's and Gore's have not gone through peer-review by scientific experts on climate change, and will have far more errors, biases, and distortions of the truth than the IPCC reports.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Change

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701. AussieStorm 2:11 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Cape York low may form into cyclone Wednesday March 4, 2009 The Bureau of Meteorology says a weak low pressure system that is sitting over the northern tip of Cape York Peninsula could develop into a cyclone later this week. Forecaster Bill O'Connor says it is slow moving and will deliver more heavy rain to far north Queensland. He says early indications suggest it may track into the Gulf of Carpentaria or down the eastern side of Cape York Peninsula later on Friday or into Saturday. "Most of our computer models aren't developing it too deep at the moment, but it really is a little bit of a wait and see game ... for another 24 to 36 hours," Mr O'Connor said. - ABC Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13329

702. Patrap 2:11 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
13 contaminated FEMA trailers turn up in Missouri The Associated Press Published: March 4, 2009 Link ST. LOUIS: Thirteen former FEMA trailers deemed unlivable and set for the scrap heap somehow ended up in a mobile home park near St. Louis, where they were close to being offered as housing, a state official said Tuesday. The trailers, which had been issued after Gulf Coast hurricanes, had high levels of formaldehyde and were to be sold only for scrap, said Missouri Public Service Chairman Robert Clayton. Prolonged exposure to formaldehyde, a preservative commonly used in building materials, can lead to breathing problems and is also believed to cause cancer. "It is a serious issue, these homes being held out to the public as safe, when they're not," Clayton said. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111458

703. Ossqss 2:26 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Quoting Patrap: 13 contaminated FEMA trailers turn up in Missouri The Associated Press Published: March 4, 2009 Link ST. LOUIS: Thirteen former FEMA trailers deemed unlivable and set for the scrap heap somehow ended up in a mobile home park near St. Louis, where they were close to being offered as housing, a state official said Tuesday. The trailers, which had been issued after Gulf Coast hurricanes, had high levels of formaldehyde and were to be sold only for scrap, said Missouri Public Service Chairman Robert Clayton. Prolonged exposure to formaldehyde, a preservative commonly used in building materials, can lead to breathing problems and is also believed to cause cancer. "It is a serious issue, these homes being held out to the public as safe, when they're not," Clayton said. How does that happen? Did they use them as temporary morgues? lol Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

704. Patrap 2:27 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Meet the watchdog who sniffed out FEMA trailer trouble Link By Rick Jervis, USA TODAY BAY ST. LOUIS, Miss. — Becky Gillette was an unpaid volunteer with the Sierra Club's Mississippi Chapter when she first heard about colleagues waking up in their federally issued trailers with nosebleeds, hacking coughs and headaches. The Federal Emergency Management Agency had distributed thousands of the aluminum trailers to Gulf Coast residents displaced by the 2005 hurricanes. Gillette heard of babies getting sick and pets, including a co-worker's parakeet, dying in the trailers over several weeks from late 2005 through early 2006. Drawing on her experience as an activist and journalist, Gillette suspected formaldehyde, a colorless gas used in manufacturing. A colleague had Googled the phrase "testing for formaldehyde" and found a company in Boca Raton, Fla., that would supply test kits and analyze the results. She ordered 32 of the $35 kits and tested trailers along the Gulf Coast. The results were stunning: 30 of the 32 trailers registered unsafe levels of formaldehyde. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111458

705. TampaSpin 2:29 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Quoting Patrap: 13 contaminated FEMA trailers turn up in Missouri The Associated Press Published: March 4, 2009 Link ST. LOUIS: Thirteen former FEMA trailers deemed unlivable and set for the scrap heap somehow ended up in a mobile home park near St. Louis, where they were close to being offered as housing, a state official said Tuesday. The trailers, which had been issued after Gulf Coast hurricanes, had high levels of formaldehyde and were to be sold only for scrap, said Missouri Public Service Chairman Robert Clayton. Prolonged exposure to formaldehyde, a preservative commonly used in building materials, can lead to breathing problems and is also believed to cause cancer. "It is a serious issue, these homes being held out to the public as safe, when they're not," Clayton said. Just to let everyone know but, every piece of clothing that you buy in retail new has high concentrates of formaldehyde. It is used to prevent milddew for packing and shipping. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

706. Ossqss 2:32 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
I wonder if that is the problem with my fridge. Sometimes I open and close it many times getting a beverage of choice and the next day I wake up with headache. I would sure like to know what part of the construction was putting out the fumes. Wood, insulation, floor or wall paper glue, cabinets etc. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

707. Ossqss 2:35 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Great, no place to live and now we have to wear plant life. Thanks for the input, I think. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

708. Orcasystems 2:41 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Good Morning :) Complete Blog Refresh Mirror Site Current Home weather station data. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

709. Ossqss 2:47 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Quote from an article -- 6-12 months it should be gone from a building? How could it still be in the trailers? The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that formaldehyde is one of the contributors to “sick building syndrome” and that the best solution is to increase ventilation until the building materials have off-gassed to a level that can be tolerated. “Sick building syndrome” (also called “Tight Building Syndrome” or “Indoor Air Pollution”) is a collection of ills that describe situations in which building occupants experience acute health and comfort effects that appear to be linked to time spent in a building, but no specific illness or cause can be identified. When the building materials are new, high indoor temperatures or humidity can cause an increased release of formaldehyde to be off-gassed. These emissions will decrease over time as the formaldehyde dissipates into the environment but it can take six to twelve months. Besides the building and construction industry, formaldehyde can be found in almost every closet and drawer in a conventional home in some form: Personal care products – cosmetics, fingernail polishes and hardeners, antiperspirants, bubble bath, bath oils, shampoos, creams, mouthwashes, deodorants and even toothpastes; Cleaning products and supplies – household cleaners, disinfectants, polishes; Paper products – formaldehyde resins are used to improve the water resistance, grease resistance, shrink resistance, and wet-strength properties of some paper products such as paper towels, napkins and coated paper products; Home furnishings – carpet backings and foam in cushions; Food products – used as a preservative in some foods and in the manufacturing of sugar; Medicines – used as a preservative in some vaccines given to children and other pharmaceuticals including wart remedies, anhidrotics, medicated creams, orthopaedic casts and root canal preparation disinfectant; In the garden and garage where formaldehyde can be used in the manufacturing of fertilizers, petroleum, paints, primers and paint-stripping agents; On the farm, formaldehyde has been used as a fumigant, preventative for mildew in wheat and rot in oats, a germicide and fungicide for plants, an insecticide, and in the manufacture of slow-release fertilizers. Of course, the level of formaldehyde in individual products is regulated so it doesn’t exceed acceptable levels, but each country has its own manufacturing standards for acceptable levels for formaldehyde resins. The “low level” of acceptable formaldehyde in Japan is 75 ppm (parts per million parts of air), whereas the U.S. “low level” of acceptable formaldehyde is near 300 ppm. Once again, consumer protection from potentially dangerous and toxic chemicals is much less in the U.S. than in many other G7 countries. Sensitivities to formaldehyde, like other toxins, do build up over time and can eventually become a serious health concern. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

711. Patrap 2:51 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Storm scale may alter Surges from recent hurricanes show need for more flexibility Claire Taylor • ctaylor@theadvertiser.com • February 16, 2009 Link Scientists from Florida to Colorado are debating the need for a more accurate scale and discussing which of several proposed new scales should be adopted by the National Hurricane Center. The National Hurricane Center is not as open to the idea of replacing Saffir-Simpson, though, Landsea said. A more accurate scale that takes into account storm surge potential is needed because many people don't consider a Category 2 hurricane to be dangerous and refuse to evacuate, Brazzell said. Mark Powell with NOAA at Florida State University developed a hurricane scale that integrates kinetic energy, basically summing up the force of the wind on the sea surface. Then it relates that to a number between zero and 5.9. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111458

712. Patrap 2:54 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
The Oversight Committee holds a hearing, "FEMA's Response to Reports of Toxic Trailers." The Committee will hold a hearing investigating formaldehyde levels in FEMA trailers provided for victims of the Gulf Coast hurricanes and FEMA's response to these reports. The Committee will hear from current residents occupying FEMA trailers, experts who are familiar with the health impact of formaldehyde, and from FEMA Administrator Paulison. Formaldehyde is a chemical used in paint and adhesives, and is classified as a "known carcinogen" by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Reports of high formaldehyde levels found in FEMA issued trailers and FEMA's response raise serious public health concerns. Mary DeVany, an industrial hygienist, explains the danger of formaldehyde and the need for action. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111458

713. surfmom 3:05 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
thanks everyone for posting the information on formaldehyde -- gathered the information and put it on my mass e-mailing list -- the more people know about this the better! SPREAD THE WORD!!! ALSO - any folks from Houston on the blog today--check out SMMCDAVID's blog for information regarding the Portlight.org walk there. Hurricane season approaches -- part of being prepared is supporting this WU grassroots organization that may be offering YOU hurricane aid this season. Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

714. Beachfoxx 3:18 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
G'morning... Reading the info posted here, makes me want to have my entire house tested! All the toxins, from floor to ceiling - makes one pause and seriously consider working to make the home environment safer. Thanks for the good info. : ) Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

715. Beachfoxx 3:22 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
P.S. Code and SugarSand are doing a Doggie/People walk for Portlight in Destin. Thanks Code, SugarSand, SMMCDAVID, and everyone else who are putting together the walks for Portlight! Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

716. Patrap 3:26 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Out gassing from volatile products is a real threat to ones Health,especially the young and elderly,and folks with Health Problems. Here is some more info on it from GOOGLE lists.Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111458

717. Patrap 3:28 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
715. Beachfoxx 9:22 AM CST on March 04, 2009 P.S. Code and SugarSand are doing a Doggie/People walk for Portlight in Destin. Thanks Code, SugarSand, SMMCDAVID, and everyone else who are putting together the walks for Portlight! Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111458

718. Ossqss 3:42 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Please keep an eye out for my new line of organic safe Chia clothing. Guaranteed formaldehyde free. Except the fertilizer part. It is truely amazing what we can learn in a give day. Thanks Patrap for the insight. Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

719. smmcdavid 3:50 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Thanks surfmom, beach, and pat! We are all doing a great job. Yay for us. Lol... but it's true! Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309

720. Patrap 3:56 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Your doing a Great job taking on a the task at hand smmcdavid. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111458

721. stillwaiting 4:15 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
Just purchased the weather station that keeper of the gate had linked a page or two back,I got it for a great price $139.00 shipped,its got a touch screen panel,and the rain guage has a auto dump feature along with all the other goodies,If anyone is interested I can give you the person who sold me mine on ebay for that low price!!!,now I just have to get a mast to post it on,I already live on the top floor(3rd story)...and I need to do something about potential lightning strikes!!!(I live on the beach in sarasota,fl) Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

722. stillwaiting 4:20 PM GMT on March 04, 2009
is that a nor'easter on the long range gfs???(about 9 days out) Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

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