January 2009: 7th warmest January on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on February 23, 2009

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Earth recorded its 7th warmest January on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The most notable extreme temperatures were recorded in southern Australia January 28-31, when the hottest weather since 1939 occurred. January 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is unknown, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A sensor error in January caused underestimation of the ice coverage during the month, and a correction needs to be applied to the data. At worst, January 2009 had the 6th lowest Arctic ice extent on record. The record January low was set in 2006. The sensor error does not affect months prior to January, and does not affect the records lows observed in September 2008 and 2007.

A dry January with average temperatures for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., January temperatures were near average. It was the 59th warmest January in the 114-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was very dry, ranking as the 5th driest January on record. Only ten (preliminary) tornado reports were logged by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in January, making it the quietest January for tornadoes since 2004, when only three tornadoes were recorded. U.S. records set in January 2009 (courtesy of http://extremeweatherguide.com/updates.asp):

Waterloo, IA: All-time coldest temperature record tied on 1/16, -34°F
Maine: All-time coldest temperature -50°F at Big Black River

At the end of January, 21% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is an increase from the 19% figure at the end of December.


Figure 1. Forecast El Niño/La Niña conditions for a number of computer models. El Niño conditions are forecast when the SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region goes above 0.5°C (upper red line). La Niña conditions are forecast when the SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region goes below -0.5°C (lower red line). Nearly all of the computer models are forecasting neutral conditions during the 2009 hurricane season (August-September-October, ASO). Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

La Niña conditions continue
La Niña conditions continued in the Eastern Pacific Ocean in January, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Advisory. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. In addition, the atmospheric response typically associated with a La Niña must be observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures were 1.0°C below average in the Niña 3.4 region during January, an increase from the -0.73°C anomaly observed in December. However, it appears that La Niña has peaked, as ocean temperatures in the Niña 3.4 region have warmed since late January. Many El Niño forecast models predict a continuation of La Niña conditions through May of 2009. Despite the unusually late start to this La Niña, expected impacts during Spring 2009 include above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average precipitation across the South, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southern United States.

Jeff Masters

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Very true...they usually never pan out towards the end of the forecast period.
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Tampaspin with all the doom and gloom coming out of Washington and the media, no wonder the market is doing lower everyday.

Former president Clinton told President Obama, to start speaking postive, and not so negative.
The stock market if fragile, any bad news coming from the whitehouse will reflect how the market reacts, remember when Greenspan was the Fed chairman, and he spoke, the market was like a rollercoaster with his comments, Obama please take notes my 401 depends on it.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
wow..I thought we were just about down with cold fronts passing thru so. fla....10-day forecast has us in the 40's next Monday thru Thursday.


Its a 10 day forcast odds are it will change.

Couple of weak fronts.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I am one of those people who won't open their 401k statements. Last time I looked...down $20,000..arggggggg


Doesn't matter what it is now... only what it is when you retire....

If you're close? Yep, ouch!
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Quoting IceEmQuick:
Here is something I think EVERYONE should find important... artic sea ice grossly underestimated due to faulty sensor....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIe9swvOqwIY

Area the size of CALIFORNIA... HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Thats pretty dang large... wunder how long before Mr. Master acknowlegdges this HUGE issue...



He already did. ;)

Check a couple blogs back.
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wow..I thought we were just about down with cold fronts passing thru so. fla....10-day forecast has us in the 40's next Monday thru Thursday.
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I am one of those people who won't open their 401k statements. Last time I looked...down $20,000..arggggggg
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Here is something I think EVERYONE should find important... artic sea ice grossly underestimated due to faulty sensor....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIe9swvOqwIY

Area the size of CALIFORNIA... HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Thats pretty dang large... wunder how long before Mr. Master acknowlegdges this HUGE issue...

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Country and World is in serious finiancial trouble......and its going to get a lot worst. Just the reality!


Alot of people on the WSJ blog predict 6500 down to 5000

O_o
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Redoudt is puffing some.......

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A man from Greater Manchester has spoken about being rescued near the Bermuda Triangle after being lost at sea for 40 days.

Stuart Armstrong, 51, from Stockport and his partner Andrea Davison, 48, from Newcastle, got into difficulty when their yacht's rudder broke.

The couple had set off from the Cape Verde Islands and were 1,200 miles from their destination in Antigua...

Link

Now if only Cape Verde hurricanes could do that too... and not be recovered...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Wow the Dow Jones is getting closer.. and closer to that 7,000 mark.

Not good.


Country and World is in serious finiancial trouble......and its going to get a lot worst. Just the reality!
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Wow the Dow Jones is getting closer.. and closer to that 7,000 mark.

Not good.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
Link

Instructional illustration as needed --- who thinks up this stuff,, let alone think we need it.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting Ossqss:
What is that in the bottom of that bowl?
I really dont want to know.


I found a better one...
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Quoting Ossqss:
What is that in the bottom of that bowl?
I really dont want to know.


it looks like a motorola krzr
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
What is that in the bottom of that bowl?
I really dont want to know.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
It looks like the DOW is going down the...



well you get the picture...
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Quoting chilliam:
"Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the sixth lowest on record for the month of January, 8% below the mean..."

Dr. Masters, why did you report northern and not the southern? I'll cover it for you...the graph is right next to the northern. Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the fifth HIGHEST on record for January, 15% ABOVE the mean.

Not mentioning southern ice is sort of like someone just presenting the US temperatures and not the world. I like the non-biased nature of most of Dr. Masters' blogs, but let's not end it now!


Not to mention it is SUMMER in the Southern Hemisphere.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Holy Crap....



Oh no!!! my 401,,,,,,no ,,,,,, my 301, no,,,,,,my 201k took another hit again.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



I am also trying something new with these link
Display Current


Neat stuff, Orca. 50 degrees, huh? T-shirt weather for you, no? ;)
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Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



I am also trying something new with these link
Display Current
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Quoting JeffMasters

La Nia conditions are forecast when the SST anomaly in the Nio 3.4 region goes below -0.5C (lower red line). Nearly all of the computer models are forecasting neutral conditions during the 2009 hurricane season (August-September-October, ASO).

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Thanks cot. Can you tell I'm ready?

Almost took my generator out to test it this weekend.

Slow news day today, to boot.

Even went through an "analysis" going through the usual links, charts, etc. on something as a dry run... a 1008mb low that was down by panama.

I know, I know... i'm pathetic. :)
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Quoting Seastep:
Yep... but one can hope.

And, getting closer than you think...

Where's the countdown CyberTeddy?


Time until Monday, June 1, 2009 at 12:00:01 AM (Praia time)
97 days
2332 hours
139977 minutes
8398648 seconds

Or:

Alternative version

It is 97 days, 4 hours, 53 minutes and 1 second until Monday, June 1, 2009 at 12:00:01 AM (Praia time)...

My blog has some dates to remember as we go through the 'hurricane pre-season'...

(Yes I know I'm not Cybr, but I'm sure he won't mind filling in the duties.. he stole 'em off 'Rolex Ike' after all ;))
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Holy Crap....

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Mauritius Meteorological Services

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HINA (09-20082009)
19.5ºS 77.8ºE - 40 knots 990 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Warning #11
===============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hina (990 hPa) located at 19.5S 77.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0

Gale-Force Winds
================
90 NM radius of the center in the southern semi-circle

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
240 NM radius of the center in the southeastern quadrant, extending up to 320 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 20.5S 76.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 21.4S 73.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION tropicale)
48 HRS: 24.0S 70.1E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale
72 HRS: 27.7S 68.0E - 20 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
===========================
The system keeps on weakening and winds has been calibrated according to the last QUIKSCAT Pass. Strong uncertainity exists with position based on last NW imagery (SSMIS of 12:48z) and near infrared imagery. Equatorward low level inflow will decrease progressively but the trade flow is still good. Upper levels wind shear should remain persistent although polewards divergence remains good. Within a more low level steering flow, the system track is expected to recurve west-southwest linked to the ridge in the southeast and the south.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
"Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the sixth lowest on record for the month of January, 8% below the mean..."

Dr. Masters, why did you report northern and not the southern? I'll cover it for you...the graph is right next to the northern. Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the fifth HIGHEST on record for January, 15% ABOVE the mean.

Not mentioning southern ice is sort of like someone just presenting the US temperatures and not the world. I like the non-biased nature of most of Dr. Masters' blogs, but let's not end it now!
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Quoting hahaguy:
ya very true only like 96 days or something like that


Only 49 more school days left. =]
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ya very true only like 96 days or something like that
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Yep... but one can hope.

And, getting closer than you think...

Where's the countdown CyberTeddy?
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None of us really know what this season has in store for us. Every year has it's own signature and we will just have to wait and see. But as I always say nothing would surprise me lol. Besides it's still a little bit to early.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Now, if only that rain to my E would drift a little W and give me a nice soaking... could use it.

Overcast, but no rain. :(
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Agreed, but 2006 had only 10 storms, three US landfalls and only one with death/damage (5 and 500mil)...

Link

As cotillion points out, much more to it than ENSO. While it would be a boring season, I'd take not having to put up shutters. ;)
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Quoting FLDART1:
It only takes one...


Alot of people forget that even I do sometimes but that is the truth.
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Not to worry folks, weather from the beginning of time has followed cycles and as before we have begun another cool down to which I hope and pray will educate the naysayers who's very life it seems depends on them spreading undue fear over global warming. God who created this wonderful planet has everything under control as he see's fit and needs no help from man to operate the thermostat. No one denies we should do our part to care for earth but lets do so with a little sense applied and not forcing a theory down everyone's throat.
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It only takes one...
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Would much rather have (aside from the fun of tracking storms) 2006 vs. 2005:



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FWIW, 2009 forecast is closer to 2006 than 2005 (based on model forecast of Jan):



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Quoting SevereHurricane:


2005 was neutral too...


Basically, the same as last year.

Though remember kids: As important ENSO can be, it doesn't determine it all... 2004 was El Nino, but had more big hits than 2007 which was La Nina... many different cycles and things in effect.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting trunkmonkey:
California, had a warmer than normal January, but I believe Febuary will be cooler, in January California was dry, and caused a drought situation, but Febuary is a lot different, storm after storm is hitting California, causing the daily temps to stay below normal. So average the two months temps and see if it is normal. My bets that it will be.
To go along with the temps, the gloom and doom folks are crying about the severe drought in northern California, this week and the last two weeks, several storms came through the northern parts of the state. Flooding predicted for northern California by weeks end.
My point is weather is on cycles, and will continue to be this way until the end of time.
Just the way it is folks.


I love how they say Southern California and Arizona is in a severe Drought.
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weather is like a box a chocolates....
Last year January was above normal in the northeast,this year below,its all a matter of where the jet streams sets up from season to season.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


More tropical activity in the Atlantic that means. If its going to be a Neutral year like the models predict.


2005 was neutral too...
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"It was the 59th warmest January in the 114-year record"

Sorry, but to me thats just saying it was the 55th Coolest January in 114-year Record.

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California, had a warmer than normal January, but I believe Febuary will be cooler, in January California was dry, and caused a drought situation, but Febuary is a lot different, storm after storm is hitting California, causing the daily temps to stay below normal. So average the two months temps and see if it is normal. My bets that it will be.
To go along with the temps, the gloom and doom folks are crying about the severe drought in northern California, this week and the last two weeks, several storms came through the northern parts of the state. Flooding predicted for northern California by weeks end.
My point is weather is on cycles, and will continue to be this way until the end of time.
Just the way it is folks.
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TO Bonscott
Michigan had it's 9th coldest January on record.


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Tropic...I'm glad you asked that...it's exactly what I was wondering...
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All I know is here in Michigan it's been one of the coldest winters in decades. Pretty much since mid November it's barely gotten above freezing other then a couple thaws. Back down to near zero again tonight. We're all wondering where this great global warming is? ;)
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Thanks,Dr. M., wish some of that warmth had made it up to the northeast, we were below normal pretty much all month.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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