January 2009: 7th warmest January on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on February 23, 2009

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Earth recorded its 7th warmest January on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The most notable extreme temperatures were recorded in southern Australia January 28-31, when the hottest weather since 1939 occurred. January 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is unknown, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A sensor error in January caused underestimation of the ice coverage during the month, and a correction needs to be applied to the data. At worst, January 2009 had the 6th lowest Arctic ice extent on record. The record January low was set in 2006. The sensor error does not affect months prior to January, and does not affect the records lows observed in September 2008 and 2007.

A dry January with average temperatures for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., January temperatures were near average. It was the 59th warmest January in the 114-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was very dry, ranking as the 5th driest January on record. Only ten (preliminary) tornado reports were logged by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in January, making it the quietest January for tornadoes since 2004, when only three tornadoes were recorded. U.S. records set in January 2009 (courtesy of http://extremeweatherguide.com/updates.asp):

Waterloo, IA: All-time coldest temperature record tied on 1/16, -34°F
Maine: All-time coldest temperature -50°F at Big Black River

At the end of January, 21% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is an increase from the 19% figure at the end of December.


Figure 1. Forecast El Niño/La Niña conditions for a number of computer models. El Niño conditions are forecast when the SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region goes above 0.5°C (upper red line). La Niña conditions are forecast when the SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region goes below -0.5°C (lower red line). Nearly all of the computer models are forecasting neutral conditions during the 2009 hurricane season (August-September-October, ASO). Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

La Niña conditions continue
La Niña conditions continued in the Eastern Pacific Ocean in January, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Advisory. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. In addition, the atmospheric response typically associated with a La Niña must be observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures were 1.0°C below average in the Niña 3.4 region during January, an increase from the -0.73°C anomaly observed in December. However, it appears that La Niña has peaked, as ocean temperatures in the Niña 3.4 region have warmed since late January. Many El Niño forecast models predict a continuation of La Niña conditions through May of 2009. Despite the unusually late start to this La Niña, expected impacts during Spring 2009 include above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average precipitation across the South, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southern United States.

Jeff Masters

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206. Good question. It could be. I check it out and post the result here.
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WMO: Reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during 2008

British Caribbean Territories

Canada

As additional areas report the doc can be accessed here
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205 Is that another record for 08 ending with two cat fours?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2370
Category 4 as far as I remember. The season ended with two cat 4 in a row, Omar and Paloma.
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what category hurricane did paloma become?
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202 I would have but Ike came after Gustav and is therefore the last storm to retire in Cuba assuming Ike retires.
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2370
Gustav should be included for Cuba
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
I'll run a poll I did for 08 which of these areas will get hit by a devastating hurricane in 09, the last storm to retire that hit the area will be mentioned at the right
1 Canada (Juan 03)
2 New England & upper Atlantic states (Bob 1991)
3 Carolinas (Isabel 03)
4 Georgia and N Florida (Dora 1964)
5 Rest of Florida (Wilma 05, unless Fay retires from 08)
6 GOMex (Ike 08)
7 Mexico (Dean 07)
8 Central America (Felix 07)
9 Jamaica (Dean 07)
10 Cuba (Ike or Paloma if she retires)
11 Hispaniola (Noel 07 or Hanna if she retires)
12 Lesser Antilles (Lenny 1999)
13 Bermuda and/or Azores (Fabian 03)
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2370
Quoting twistermania:
upper-30s! what a heat wave!


Check out the low temperatures then....
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
upper-30s! what a heat wave!
Quoting futuremet:
Model temperature forecast for tuesday and monday





A cold front will come through....but I am still skeptical about a big chill
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Model temperature forecast for tuesday and monday





A cold front will come through....but I am still skeptical about a big chill
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
I concur Drak

During saturday, an amplifying shortwave trough will rapidly move across the midwest, and will reach its peak strength the following day. A mid-level anticyclone to its southeast will enhance warm air advection throughout much of the extreme southeast. According to the GFS a stationary front will likely be in place over the upper-southeast Saturday. The aid of warm air advection from the anticyclone and the instability from the shortwave will be suffice for cyclogenesis to start occuring. The cyclone will rapidly deepen and stride toward the northeast. This system will increase the chance in FL to about 30% Monday. Now by sunday, the shortwave will begin to interact with an extremely steep longwave from Canada. The interaction will result a large 500mb longwave trough to form over the eastern U.S. A large mid level high pressure system will then build over the east, and it will just blast cold air southward.


Drak

Albeit this conclusion is reasonable, the local weather forecast is expecting lows to be around the mid 50s for monday and tuesdays (Central Fl). So I am remaining conservative by not leaning toward a big chill yet.


Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
will have to watch what happens this weekend,depending on where it forms,you may get your snow,should be enough cold air around up and down the east coast
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Can't stand those Marach snowstorms here in Michigan. We have enough from November to February
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I want snow, New Orleans has had more snow than N VA
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2370
Quoting NEwxguy:
models are leaning toward a storm forming off the mid atlantic by Monday,gotta love those March snowstorms here in New England


I wouldn't know. Unfortunately, I've never been to New England. I'm hoping for a late snow for the coastal Carolinas. I've seen it happen before, believe it or not!
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models are leaning toward a storm forming off the mid atlantic by Monday,gotta love those March snowstorms here in New England
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Quoting Drakoen:


The ECMWF and CMC drops the 540dm line over central Florida. This usually coincides with 30s and 40s all the way down to South Florida.


Any possibility of a coastal low developing off the Carolinas after the cold air pushes through?
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Dow held on to the gains. Hope this portends more optimistic economic indicators.

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Thanks Drak. I'll keep an eye on it.

Don't need another $600 electric bill!
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting Drakoen:


The ECMWF and CMC drops the 540dm line over central Florida. This usually coincides with 30s and 40s all the way down to South Florida.
Oh, no, not another cold front - I love the cold but now ready for some warmer weather! Heating bills are a killer!
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Quoting Seastep:


How far S into FL, if you don't mind?


The ECMWF and CMC drops the 540dm line over central Florida. This usually coincides with 30s and 40s all the way down to South Florida.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Quoting Drakoen:


The CMC and UKMET agrees with the ECMWF of the cold solution coming up early next week with a big 500mb longwave trough setting up.


How far S into FL, if you don't mind?
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting CybrTeddy:


La Nina. An neutral makes horrific Hurricane seasons.
(ex, 2005, 2008)
La Nina's almost as bad, Although I must the two Category 5's in 2007 were quite a show, except when they BOTH hit land as a Category 5, then it turns to fear.


I was scared when Ike was looking absolutely perfect out there and the forecast track was pointing right at my doorstep!

Thankfully (for me) that didn't last all too long as the forecast track kept shifting south.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The "official" determination of a recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, who has determined that Dec 07 was the start of the current one.

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

Rule of thumb has always been two quarters consecutive decrease in GDP, but that is not the "official" designation.


Thanks. We were talking apples and oranges.

I certainly wouldn't disagree that in pegged dollars, that was the peak.

Close enough for govt work. ;)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
2007 was weird. even thought the season was less active than 06 in ACE it was more active in #s also the fact it devastated central America and the Caribbean even though it was technically inactive. I think the storms of 07 are just as impressive as how humans coped with them (both in a positive and negative way)
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2370
Quoting weatherbro:
The European model forecasts a big arctic intrusion for the east(even Florida). While the GFS wants a repeat of this last front Sunday/Monday(March 1st/2nd). Since the Euro is proven more accurate and the GFS has been flip-flopping, I guess we'll have to go with the colder solution. Still a lot can change as we inch closer.


The CMC and UKMET agrees with the ECMWF of the cold solution coming up early next week with a big 500mb longwave trough setting up.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Quoting futuremet:


It is currently 50-50 between la nina an el nino so far

It will be interesting to see what happens

It seems to be leaning on a Neutral year to me, closer to the El Nino side. Just gotta watch whats going to happen.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


La Nina. An neutral makes horrific Hurricane seasons.
(ex, 2005, 2008)
La Nina's almost as bad, Although I must the two Category 5's in 2007 were quite a show, except when they BOTH hit land as a Category 5, then it turns to fear.


It is currently 50-50 between la nina an el nino so far

It will be interesting to see what happens
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting futuremet:
Which do you prefer, neutral or la nina?





La Nina. An neutral makes horrific Hurricane seasons.
(ex, 2005, 2008)
La Nina's almost as bad, Although I must the two Category 5's in 2007 were quite a show, except when they BOTH hit land as a Category 5, then it turns to fear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seastep:


And, I think you need another source. December 2007? Where does this stuff come from?

Just saying. Facts are facts:

2007q4 14,031.2 0.58%
2008q1 14,150.8 0.85%
2008q2 14,294.5 1.02%
2008q3 14,412.8 0.83%
2008q4 14,264.6 -1.03%


The "official" determination of a recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, who has determined that Dec 07 was the start of the current one.

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

Rule of thumb has always been two quarters consecutive decrease in GDP, but that is not the "official" designation.
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176. Skyepony (Mod)
FAA mulls consolidating meteorologist centers


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The European model forecasts a big arctic intrusion for the east(even Florida). While the GFS wants a repeat of this last front Sunday/Monday(March 1st/2nd). Since the Euro is proven more accurate and the GFS has been flip-flopping, I guess we'll have to go with the colder solution. Still a lot can change as we inch closer.
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Which do you prefer, neutral or la nina?



Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting charlottefl:
Not saying I want the recession to continue. I don't. But how can you accurately predict that it is going to end this year? I think that's a little presumptuous on his part. Especially with the amount of government manipulation of the markets lately.


It is a forecast. Personally think it would definitely been the case without this "stimulus," but who knows.

Most economists had predicted just that before the bill passed (i.e. if govt does nothing economy should recover by end of year). Now, not so much.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting charlottefl:
Not saying I want the recession to continue. I don't. But how can you accurately predict that it is going to end this year? I think that's a little presumptuous on his part. Especially with the amount of government manipulation of the markets lately.


I believe he stated that could be the case if the stimulus works, which is questionable at best. I hope it does, even with all of the pork it has packaged into it.
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Not saying I want the recession to continue. I don't. But how can you accurately predict that it is going to end this year? I think that's a little presumptuous on his part. Especially with the amount of government manipulation of the markets lately.
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Quoting Seastep:


Yep. Market is loving Bernanke's comments even with the housing and consumer confidence figures that came out.

And, in rereading the press release, I get it now. A little confusing how they wrote it, but they're saying the decrease from Q3 to Q4 of 1.03% translates to 3.8% on an annual basis.


Lets see if it can hang on during the 3 pm witching hour.
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Quoting Ossqss:


I just cut and pasted it from the lengthy report. GDP is really not a big worry right now, but is indicative of the times at hand. Lets see what happens with the stress tests coming for our big banks over teh next few days. It starts tomorrow and we will finally know what was hidden under the skirts.


Yep. Market is loving Bernanke's comments even with the housing and consumer confidence figures that came out.

And, in rereading the press release, I get it now. A little confusing how they wrote it, but they're saying the decrease from Q3 to Q4 of 1.03% translates to 3.8% on an annual basis.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting Seastep:
164 ossgss

Also, just clarifying your statement... annual rate is not quarter to quarter. The quarter to quarter was -1.03... but annual rate would be about that x 3 and 2/3 quarters to get the annual of 3.8%.

There using chained $ in the release, which is accurate for inflation.


I just cut and pasted it from the lengthy report. GDP is really not a big worry right now, but is indicative of the times at hand. Lets see what happens with the stress tests coming for our big banks over teh next few days. It starts tomorrow and we will finally know what was hidden under the skirts.
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164 ossgss

Also, just clarifying your statement... annual rate is not quarter to quarter. The quarter to quarter was -1.03... but annual rate would be about that x 3 and 2/3 quarters to get the annual of 3.8%.

There using chained $ in the release, which is accurate for inflation.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Link to the table (XLS): Link

What's up with that?
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
ossgss

The figures given are real GDP. Wouldn't surprise me if Q3 was negative... just read the press release. They need to update their tables.

Table doesn't jibe with the press release dated the same day?
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting Seastep:


And, I think you need another source. December 2007? Where does this stuff come from?

Just saying. Facts are facts:

2007q4 14,031.2 0.58%
2008q1 14,150.8 0.85%
2008q2 14,294.5 1.02%
2008q3 14,412.8 0.83%
2008q4 14,264.6 -1.03%


Revised stats and another revision to come in a few days.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008,
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to advance estimates released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter “advance” estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4). The fourth-
quarter “preliminary” estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 27,

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Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:


The stimulus was the "Economic Stimulus Act of 2008", signed by Bush in February of 2008.


OK. You got me. LOL.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting Seastep:


The stimulus was in 2003? Has nothing to do with the current recession.


The stimulus was the "Economic Stimulus Act of 2008", signed by Bush in February of 2008.
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Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:


Hopefully you're not serious. The US economy has been in recession since December 2007 and the DOW declined 34% in 2008.


And, I think you need another source. December 2007? Where does this stuff come from?

Just saying. Facts are facts:

2007q4 14,031.2 0.58%
2008q1 14,150.8 0.85%
2008q2 14,294.5 1.02%
2008q3 14,412.8 0.83%
2008q4 14,264.6 -1.03%
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Please for give me for posting this-had to do it. UFO gamma ray blast vaporises NASA's global warning satellite
Written by queen mudder


Story written: 24 February 2009
Send to a friend Print this
Tags: NASA, UFO
image for UFO gamma ray blast vaporises NASA's global warning satellite
Destroyed, the global warning satellite before it crashed into the Antarctic causing random havoc

NASA HQ, Groom Lake, Nevada - (An Inconvenient Spoof Mess): "Hell, we are screwed!" was the only comment from NASA spokesman George Diller as the Agency's flagship Orbiting Carbon Observatory global warning (sic) satellite was blasted to smithereens by an unexplicable gamma ray blast shortly after take off today.

The $280 million Taurus XL rocket-powered space monitor appeared to have come into contact with a 'malevolent' UFO shortly after blast-off according to tracking devices at California's Vandenberg Air Force Base.

The Observatory's remains then crashed into the ocean near Antarctica obliterating an entire endangered species colony of Emperor King penguins.

Alsodestroyed were some 600 polar bears, a shoal of mating blue orcas, the world's last remaining 25 Patagonian toothfish, the washed up remains of Argentina's Falklands War flagship the General Belgrano and Captain Scott of the Antarctic's Grade-II lited Nissen hut.

A 200 ft tidal wave was later reported to have partially engulfed the icy World Heritage Site triggering countless tsunami alerts in South America.

Prof Stephen Hawking is a cosmic genius.
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Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:


Hopefully you're not serious. The US economy has been in recession since December 2007 and the DOW declined 34% in 2008.


But the recession was a secret until October when the vast majority of the Dow slide began. Link
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AtsaFunnyToo

Other than, as mentioned, may have overheated things.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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