Record -50°F confirmed for Maine; is this inconsistent with global warming?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on February 13, 2009

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The lowest temperature ever recorded in the state of Maine, a -50°F reading taken on January 16, has been confirmed as real, according to a press release issued by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and National Weather Service this week. The new record occurred at 7:15 a.m. Jan. 16 at a remote river gauge in Big Black River (see USGS image at right), about four miles from the Canadian border. It ties the record set in 1933 for New England's lowest temperature, set at Bloomfield, Vermont. The old Maine record was -48°F, set in 1925 at Van Buren. All-time state records are difficult to break. The last time a state record low was set occurred January 5, 1999, when Congerville, Illinois recorded -36°F. Only one state record high temperature has been set in the past the decade--the 120°F temperature measured in Usta, South Dakota on July 15, 2006.

All-time record lows are inconsistent with global warming, right?
An impressive cold wave hit the northern and eastern portions of the U.S. January 11-18, with 17 states reporting record daily lows. In addition to the coldest temperature ever measured in Maine, one station, Waterloo, Iowa, tied its 1962 record for all-time coldest temperature, when the mercury hit -34°F on January 16. If global warming is occurring, we should not expect to see very many all-time city or state records being set. The nation's January-December average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.12°F per decade since 1895, and at a faster rate of 0.41°F per decade during the last 50 years. This 2°F rise in temperature has undoubtedly allowed more high temperature than low temperature records to be broken. However, this is a low enough amount of warming that there should still be a few cold temperature records being set, since the weather is so highly variable.

The statistics support this position. The Waterloo, Iowa mark was only the second time this decade that an all-time record cold temperature has been set at a major U.S. city. The cities I consider are the 303 cities author Chris Burt tracks in his excellent Extreme Weather book. The cites chosen were selected based primarily on their length of weather records (all the records go back to at least 1948, with most going back to the 1800s), and include all the largest cities in the U.S. The only other all-time coldest temperature record set at these cities this decade was the -44°F recorded in Grand Forks, North Dakota on 1/30/2004. By contrast, 49 all-time high temperature marks have been set this decade (Figure 1).

Perhaps a better judge of the impact of global warming on extreme temperatures, though, is to look at record warmest and coldest months. Month-long records are more reflective of the climate than an extreme event lasting just a few days. No all-time coldest month records were at any U.S. cities during January 2009, and it was not even close. Despite the cold blast of Jan. 11-18, the month of January finished out above average in temperature for the lower 48 states. So far this decade, no U.S. major city has set an all-time coldest month record. The last time a coldest month record was set occurred in January, 1994 when Caribou Maine and Bayfield, Wisconsin recorded their coldest month. By contrast, there have been 61 all-time warmest month records set in those same 303 cities between 2000 and 2008 (Figure 1). The summer of 2007 alone saw 42 all-time high (or warmest month ever) records. Just one record was set in the summer of 2008.


Figure 1. Minimum and maximum temperatures records for the U.S. for 303 major stations. The image has been updated through January 2009 to include the one record low set that month. The original version of this image was for 2007, and I modified it to update it for four changes made in the 2008 data. The numbers for the decade of the 2000s are correct, but there are four (out of 606) records that need to be subtracted off some of the earlier decades. Note the the 1930s were the most extreme decade for total number of records set, but the 1920s were the least extreme. U.S. weather has a high degree of variability from decade to decade. Image credit: Chris Burt, Extreme Weather.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
There have been 110 all-time high temperature or all-time warmest month records set at the 303 major U.S. cities this decade, and only two such low temperature records set. Is this disparity due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

My next post will be sometime Tue-Thu.

Jeff Masters

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hey buck and sometimes you can be so smart your stupid
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Ok 2 billion 4 billion 96 million 100 thousand, the point is .....I see just over a 100 years of records.
Its hard to judge earth on 100 years.. and say humans are harming this plantet. did we cause the ice age? did we cause the flood? some scientist say at 1 point the earth had no water. water was supplied by geysers. was it humans that cause all of this to happen?

Now your pal can call me skippy and what other names he wants.
Most smart people cant use common sense.
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Quoting theshepherd:

Almost. Who's Barney?

..
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Quoting BucknSC:
barney told me lol ...can u rest now?

Almost. Who's Barney?
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528. HadesGodWyvern
I am so woefully poor at geography, and your posts are always incentive to broaden my knowledge. Thanks

From the CIA - World Fact Book
Vanuatu : Oceania, group of islands in the South Pacific Ocean, about three-quarters of the way from Hawaii to Australia
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Quoting theshepherd:

OK.
So, how do you know the Earth is around 2 million years old?


SCIENTIFIC AGE OF THE EARTH

Before analyzing the arguments advanced by creation “scientists” for a very young Earth, I here summarize briefly the evidence that has convinced scientists that the Earth is 4.5 to 4.6 billion years old...... (more)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
barney told me lol ...can u rest now?
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Quoting BucknSC:
let me set my drag a lil tighter :)

OK.
So, how do you know the Earth is around 2 million years old?
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Quoting theshepherd:
Had to go there dent cha?
I thought my operation was our little secret.


Thought of the Day :)

"Any ship can be a minesweeper ... once." - Anonymous
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats Chief Big Fish to you SheHerd :)
Had to go there dent cha?
I thought my operation was our little secret.
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atmoaggie, Skeyponey
I particularly enjoy your posts. Very different views. But both are well stated and with verifying links.
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528. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number THREE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-F
0:00 AM FST February 17 2009
==================================

Special Weather Advisory - Vanuatu

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Ten-F (1000 hPa) located at 19.0S 167.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots in the sector 30 to 120 NM of the center in the northeast quadrant and 30 to 180 NM of the center in the southeast quadrant. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/infrared imagery with animation, recent microwave pass and peripheral surface observations.

TD TEN-F lies along the northern periphery of an upper anticyclonic circulation. Outflow is good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere.

Dvorak analysis based on a wrap of 0.35 on LOG10 Spiral yields DT=2.0, MET=1.5 FT is based on MT.

Thus T1.5/2.0/D0.5/ 24 HRS

An upper shortwave trough is currently influencing TD 10F but a long wave trough moving off Australia is going to bring increasing shear as TD TEN-F moves closer to New Caledonia. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass is expected to weaken the system further. TEN-F is expected to be steered southwest as a middle level ridge develops to the southesat. Sea Surface Temperatures is around 28C. Global models agree on a southwest movement with no intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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let me set my drag a lil tighter :)
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Quoting BucknSC:
did u miss the word AROUND? LOL

My bad.
So, how do you know the Earth is AROUND 2 million years old?
You don't have to be specific if that helps.
I'll try to stumble through it. I'm usually open to learning new things about our planet.
LOL
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Quoting Patrap:
Well..if ya study just a lil astronomy.

One wouldnt have to Google anything about Yellow Main Sequence Stars.

Ya still following..?

oooh..pictures too...!




LOL..


"Castora"?! Somebody needs to check their spelling!

Oh, I see, it's supposed to be "Castor A".
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Quoting theshepherd:

Jump on in, Whale Boy. The water's fine.
Might want to cover your coffee cup and move over a bit pat. There's fixin' to be a mighty big splash if that puppy lands near you.


Thats Chief Big Fish to you SheHerd :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
did u miss the word AROUND? LOL
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I just read somewhere thats its presidents Day? if that means you guys are havinga long weekend.. I sure hope Doc changes the blog.. this one is going a bit stir crazy.

At least if The Shep says "I wanna play too.:)" its going to get very interesting.

Jump on in, Whale Boy. The water's fine.
Might want to cover your coffee cup and move over a bit pat. There's fixin' to be a mighty big splash if that puppy lands near you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting feature in the Caribbean
Got a less than 1% chance of developing but still its an interesting feature for Mid-February.

Indeed, the blobs of West Africa last year clearly indicated what was coming.
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For the Dogs
The Krewe of Barkus rolls out BatMutt:

The Bark Night Link
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Quoting theshepherd:

I wanna play too.
So how do you know it's 2 million years old?


I just read somewhere thats its presidents Day? if that means you guys are havinga long weekend.. I sure hope Doc changes the blog.. this one is going a bit stir crazy.

At least if The Shep says "I wanna play too.:)" its going to get very interesting.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Well..if ya study just a lil astronomy.

One wouldnt have to Google anything about Yellow Main Sequence Stars.

Ya still following..?

oooh..pictures too...!




LOL..
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Quoting Patrap:
Here's the Fireball over Texas,they think it may be Part of the debris from that Satellite Collision last week.



Its sad, 6 years ago that area of texas 6 year's ago also had a flaming fireball in February, but instead of being space junk it was sadly manned with 7 brave Astronauts on board.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting BucknSC:
William Smith's nephew and student, John Phillips, later calculated by such means that Earth was about 96 million years old.

The Sun is abut 4.5 billion years old now. It is about 300 degrees hotter and abput 6% greater in radius than when it was first born. ...
who will ever know skippy LOL

I wanna play too.
So how do you know it's 2 million years old?
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Interesting new work to be presented:

"Research so far on global warming and Atlantic hurricanes indicates:

* It is premature to conclude that human activity--particularly greenhouse warming--has had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricanes, and
* Model simulations indicate that 21st century greenhouse warming may lead to greater numbers of very intense Atlantic hurricanes and higher hurricane rainfall rates, but fewer hurricanes overall.

Century-long basin-wide observed records of very intense Atlantic hurricanes are considered unreliable, but tropical storm and hurricane counts have been used as long-term climate indicators. Unadjusted counts of tropical storms show a significant rise from the mid to late 1800s to present, while unadjusted hurricane counts do not, due to the large number of reported hurricanes in the late 1800s.

Analysis of historical ship track records suggests that reporting coverage was likely too sparse to detect all tropical storms, and after adjusting for this bias, tropical storm counts have no significant trend over 1878-2006. "

From Link

This is from Tom Knutson at NOAA GFDL. I doubt anyone can paint a picture of him being a paid shill of the wind energy companies...I mean carbon trade hopefuls...I mean big oil.
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William Smith's nephew and student, John Phillips, later calculated by such means that Earth was about 96 million years old.

The Sun is abut 4.5 billion years old now. It is about 300 degrees hotter and abput 6% greater in radius than when it was first born. ...
who will ever know skippy LOL
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can u prove that it really is 4.5 or u listening to someone else? skippy
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er,,the Plant Earth is around 4.5 Billion years old there Skippy..Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting feature in the Caribbean
Got a less than 1% chance of developing but still its an interesting feature for Mid-February.


Nothing interesting with that feature. Just some cloud debris being exuded from a strong upper level high over inland South America meeting westerlies in the Eastern Caribbean. Been noticing these "features" all season long.
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Earth is around 2 billion years old. you show records of just over a 100 years. Now this is what i think. True common sence shows, at one time water was 100 miles inland on the east coast, due to the sand hills, sharks teeth and sea shells. im guessing the ocean at one point was 100 miles inland. People are easily fooled, lets take the year 2000 for example.
I think this global warming is a 20 century cult, and the leaders of it are making BIG money. in about 10 years when we are back in the cold snap again, the FBI might want to investigate just how much money these players made.

This is just my opinion, and i was 100% right in the year 2000.
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Here's the Fireball over Texas,they think it may be Part of the debris from that Satellite Collision last week.

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I don't understand Dr. Master's need to explain an isolated event in the context of global warming (to which he is obviously a convert). Why is a one day event of any interest whatsoever in the context of a century of climate change? Who are you trying to convince? The heretics?
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Quoting IKE:


104 after today. 12 left in February...then 31, 30 and 31=........ 104 at midnight tonight.


Alright 104 days :P I miscounted.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Interesting feature in the Caribbean
Got a less than 1% chance of developing but still its an interesting feature for Mid-February.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Flooding rain for northern and eastern NSW
Brett Dutschke, Monday February 16, 2009 - 16:54 EDT

There has been a brief lull in rain across northern and eastern NSW but heavy falls are returning, leading to flash flooding, even inland.

Bourke, in the northwest of the state had 198 millimetres of rain on Friday night and is copping another heavy burst again today as thunderstorms form in a pool of cold air. Bourke picked up more than 30mm since early this morning taking their monthly total past 230mm and making it their wettest month in at least 10 years.

In the next 24 to 48 hours rain will develop further east and south and become heavy, causing flash flooding. The likely areas to be flood affected will be the Northwest Slopes and Plains and the area from the Mid North Coast to the South Coast, including Sydney.

The heavy rain for the coast will be mainly due to a low off the north coast which will take rain south as it pumps moist southeasterly winds over the region. Widespread falls of 40 to 80mm are likely, with localised falls of close to 100mm possible about the Hunter.

Parts of the Mid North Coast and Hunter, including Kempsey and Nelson Bay have already had more than 200mm in the last few days, so the coming rain will only increase the flooding problems.

- Weatherzone
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503. Skyepony (Mod)
ENSO #s are already out for the day..warmed a little



vort~ Heartland institute also brought us all the research that said smoking wasn't bad for us & didn't cause cancer, well back when it was funded by big tobacco. Now it's funded largely by big oil. I've also noticed that nearly everyone over the age of 70 doesn't believe human's pollution has much an impact on the enviroment their grandkids are growing up in or that the artifical candy is causing ADD.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
Singer Pink donates $250,000 to Red Cross Bushfire Appeal
Article from: Herald Sun

February 16, 2009 12:00am

PINK, who is set to break records with a 13-night stint at Rod Laver Arena, has dug deep to help the country she calls her second home.

The concert diva is planning to donate $250,000 to the Red Cross Bushfire Appeal, for use in helping rebuild the communities across Victoria devastated by bushfires nine days ago.

She said, "There is little anyone can do at such a long distance away but I wanted to make a tangible expression of support."

Pink's biggest fanbase outside America is in Australia, where she will be touring in May and June this year, and breaking John Farnham's record for most nights at Rod Laver Arena.
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Victoria fire death toll climbs to 189

THE gruesome reality of the search through the rubble of Victoria's fires has become clearer as police admit it is difficult to determine whether remains come from one person, or even if they are human.

Police today announced the death toll from the savage fires had risen to 189, only eight more than their last update on Thursday, and would continue to rise.

The revised toll included 40 from the hamlet of Strathewen from its population of 200, while 36 have so far been confirmed dead in Marysville which is expected to lose 100 of its 500 residents.

While 10 more victims were identified in Strathewen and 21 more in Marsyville, the number of dead has gone down in some areas after remains were fully identified.

The toll in the Churchill fire in Gippsland dropped from 21 to 10.

"In some cases what we are dealing with is just bones. It may be that we've initially thought that was more than one body, but when it has gone to the coroner, they have confirmed it is actually one," a police spokeswoman said.

Huge task

Emergency Services Commissioner Bruce Esplin defended the delay in issuing the latest update, saying that identification of remains was complex and difficult.

The most important thing was that families of the missing were given correct information, Mr Esplin said.

"The sensitivity is to get it right," he said.

"It's a huge task and it's a hugely sensitive task for the police, fire services and the defence force that are supporting them in recovering remains and appropriately identifying remains.

"And it's most important that the families get the right information and they get that information correctly, that there are no mistakes made."

Focus on Marysville

Victoria Police Deputy Commissioner Kieran Walshe said some remains found may never be identified due to the extensive injuries caused by the fire, which will make it tough to know the exact death toll.

"Fire causes extensive disfigurement to bodies. Fire causes extensive damage, and it is a very difficult process in some cases to actually determine whether the remains are human remains," he said.

Mr Walshe said the search for victims in open spaces had finished and authorities were now searching burned-out homes for bodies.

He said authorities were now concentrating on searching buildings in the Marysville area.

"We know the numbers will grow ... as to what the number is going to get to, I just think we should await and let it unfold over the next week or 10 days," Mr Walshe said.

The figure also included 128 victims from the Kinglake complex fire, including 33 from the town of Kinglake itself and 20 from Steels Creek.

The death toll in the Gippsland town of Callignee dropped from 12 to four.

Two deaths have been recorded from Mudgegonga near Beechworth, one at Bendigo and five have died in hospital.

Mr Walshe said it would still be at least a week until some bushfire-hit roads were open to traffic.

"Marysville we know we will not be able to open up that area for probably another 10-14 days," he said.

Accused arsonist

His comments came the same day court action began against 39-year-old Brendan Sokaluk, from the Gippsland town of Churchill, who is accused of starting the Churchill fire.

Sokaluk did not appear in court, and was remanded in custody to appear at a committal mention on May 26.

He has been charged with one count of arson causing death, one count of intentionally lighting a bushfire and one count of possessing child pornography.

The arson charge carries a maximum penalty of 25 years, with the bushfire charge carrying a maximum penalty of 15 years.

Calm weather on Monday again helped firefighters put in containment lines around the five fires still burning in Victoria.

Department of Sustainability and Environment spokesman Stuart Ord said containment lines surrounded 85 per cent of the Kinglake Murrindindi Complex, while the Bunyip and Beechworth fires were also close to being contained.

Bulldozing work was undertaken near the water catchment areas near Healesville and the Wilson's Promontory fire was still running, but not threatening communities.

Good conditions are forecast for the next two days.
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Anybody check out the link provided by Liann as quoted in Post # 485 by theshepard ?

http://www.h2-pv.us/1/1/stormy.html

It is a great demonstration of software spreadsheet/graphics and how advanced they are.

Sadly the data used is woefully flawed and what might have been a great graphics presentation is rendered to be little more than a software tutorial on how the spreadsheet/graphics software can work to explain something.

Looks like the AGWHP crowd still doesn't get the fact that accuracy is also important in data compilation.

Have schools become that bad?

I would rather believe that is is political bias filtering into what is supposed to be an unbiased scientific analysis.

So sad.

Very interesting...try running http://www.h2-pv.us/1 see what happens.

Curiouser and curiouser
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Quoting RTLSNK:
492 & 493 - Surfmom

Wow, 63*, I remember those days, 38*F here in Macon this morning, going down to 29 tonight. I think they should ship that northern groundhog to Florida, maybe we would get a different weather reading for next year!


maybe we should have Shep Club him instead of the seals (I mean that w/humour)
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting IKE:


104 after today. 12 left in February...then 31, 30 and 31=........ 104 at midnight tonight.


Yup.

"Alternative version

It is 104 days, 12 hours, 9 minutes and 0 seconds until Monday, June 1, 2009 at 12:00:01 AM (Praia time)."

(Praia being the capital of the Cape Verde Islands.)

Finally, warmer temperatures are here. Around 6-9C, a major improvement. Hopefully it can stay roughly that for the rest of winter/early spring.
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495. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
106 Days till Hurricane season.


104 after today. 12 left in February...then 31, 30 and 31=........ 104 at midnight tonight.
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492 & 493 - Surfmom

Wow, 63*, I remember those days, 38*F here in Macon this morning, going down to 29 tonight. I think they should ship that northern groundhog to Florida, maybe we would get a different weather reading for next year!
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22108
Always liked you Avatar --especially the story
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
63 degrees in SwFl - bit foggy -- it's all good -- we just could use some Rain -- everything is very crispy around here
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
487 - futuremet - Good morning, no, its a female red tailed hawk that showed up one afternoon to take a bath in the little finch bird bath we had attached to our back deck. She let me get within two feet of her with a piece of sliced ham I was moving back and forth as if it were a hawk treat. I knew she didn't know what sliced ham looked like, but I didn't have any live chipmunks in the house!!!LOL If you click on my handle you can see the photos of the "close encounter".
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22108
490. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number TWO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-F
18:00 PM FST February 16 2009
==================================

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Ten-F (1000 hPa) located at 18.4S 169.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots within 60 to 180 NM of the center in the northeastern quadrant and 60 to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

The low level circulation center is difficult to locate as convection has popped closer to the center in the last few hours, indicating that the system is moving into lower shear. TD TEN-F lies along the northern periphery of an upper anticyclonic circulation. Outflow is good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Cloud tops has warmed in the last 6 hours and may still be influenced by th diurnal cycle.

Dvorak analysis based on a wrap of 0.35 on LOG10 Spiral yields DT=2.0, MET=1.0, PT=2.0.. FT based on T2.0

Thus T2.0/2.0/D0.5/ 24 HRS

An upper short wave trough is approaching from the wesat which may enhance development. CIMSS supports weak shear to the southwest of the system. TD TEN-F is expected to be steered southwest as a middle level ridge develops to the southeast. Sea surface temperatures is around 29C. Global models agree on a southwest movement with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

  • Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory Will Be Issued At 14:30 PM UTC..
  • Member Since: Posts: Comments:
    106 Days till Hurricane season.
    Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574

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