Record -50°F confirmed for Maine; is this inconsistent with global warming?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on February 13, 2009

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The lowest temperature ever recorded in the state of Maine, a -50°F reading taken on January 16, has been confirmed as real, according to a press release issued by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and National Weather Service this week. The new record occurred at 7:15 a.m. Jan. 16 at a remote river gauge in Big Black River (see USGS image at right), about four miles from the Canadian border. It ties the record set in 1933 for New England's lowest temperature, set at Bloomfield, Vermont. The old Maine record was -48°F, set in 1925 at Van Buren. All-time state records are difficult to break. The last time a state record low was set occurred January 5, 1999, when Congerville, Illinois recorded -36°F. Only one state record high temperature has been set in the past the decade--the 120°F temperature measured in Usta, South Dakota on July 15, 2006.

All-time record lows are inconsistent with global warming, right?
An impressive cold wave hit the northern and eastern portions of the U.S. January 11-18, with 17 states reporting record daily lows. In addition to the coldest temperature ever measured in Maine, one station, Waterloo, Iowa, tied its 1962 record for all-time coldest temperature, when the mercury hit -34°F on January 16. If global warming is occurring, we should not expect to see very many all-time city or state records being set. The nation's January-December average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.12°F per decade since 1895, and at a faster rate of 0.41°F per decade during the last 50 years. This 2°F rise in temperature has undoubtedly allowed more high temperature than low temperature records to be broken. However, this is a low enough amount of warming that there should still be a few cold temperature records being set, since the weather is so highly variable.

The statistics support this position. The Waterloo, Iowa mark was only the second time this decade that an all-time record cold temperature has been set at a major U.S. city. The cities I consider are the 303 cities author Chris Burt tracks in his excellent Extreme Weather book. The cites chosen were selected based primarily on their length of weather records (all the records go back to at least 1948, with most going back to the 1800s), and include all the largest cities in the U.S. The only other all-time coldest temperature record set at these cities this decade was the -44°F recorded in Grand Forks, North Dakota on 1/30/2004. By contrast, 49 all-time high temperature marks have been set this decade (Figure 1).

Perhaps a better judge of the impact of global warming on extreme temperatures, though, is to look at record warmest and coldest months. Month-long records are more reflective of the climate than an extreme event lasting just a few days. No all-time coldest month records were at any U.S. cities during January 2009, and it was not even close. Despite the cold blast of Jan. 11-18, the month of January finished out above average in temperature for the lower 48 states. So far this decade, no U.S. major city has set an all-time coldest month record. The last time a coldest month record was set occurred in January, 1994 when Caribou Maine and Bayfield, Wisconsin recorded their coldest month. By contrast, there have been 61 all-time warmest month records set in those same 303 cities between 2000 and 2008 (Figure 1). The summer of 2007 alone saw 42 all-time high (or warmest month ever) records. Just one record was set in the summer of 2008.


Figure 1. Minimum and maximum temperatures records for the U.S. for 303 major stations. The image has been updated through January 2009 to include the one record low set that month. The original version of this image was for 2007, and I modified it to update it for four changes made in the 2008 data. The numbers for the decade of the 2000s are correct, but there are four (out of 606) records that need to be subtracted off some of the earlier decades. Note the the 1930s were the most extreme decade for total number of records set, but the 1920s were the least extreme. U.S. weather has a high degree of variability from decade to decade. Image credit: Chris Burt, Extreme Weather.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
There have been 110 all-time high temperature or all-time warmest month records set at the 303 major U.S. cities this decade, and only two such low temperature records set. Is this disparity due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

My next post will be sometime Tue-Thu.

Jeff Masters

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Hmmmm?
In a train/cow collision, they report "Train runs over cow"

When an airplane flys into a bird they report "Bird flys into airplane" or "Airplane hit by flock of birds".

Is it just me ?
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10167
All you can do is grin and BEAR it....as the Market is about to open!

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Orca did you see the overseas markets last nite.....wow....not good! Gonna be a rough day today on WallStreet. Hopefully at the end of the day its even but, it will open way down real quick.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


wimp......LOL


Oh thank you Tim, its a brave man who steps in front of a train ..... and lets the rest of us watch :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting surfmom:
51 degrees here in SWFL -- Think some dude in Canada left the Freezer door open.


It was KOG, I think he got his new weather station?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
New Section includes Mt Redoubt



I am also trying something new with these link
Display Current
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ominus tongue of near 80 degree water SE of NOLA in the Central Gulf. Little early to be seeing that isnt it?


I see what your saying! Strange, we haven't had 80deg temperatures yet. Has to be a glitch and wrong readings or something...
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Ominus tongue of near 80 degree water SE of NOLA in the Central Gulf. Little early to be seeing that isnt it?


What!!! YOu sure.
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Ominus tongue of near 80 degree water SE of NOLA in the Central Gulf. Little early to be seeing that isnt it?
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Tampa - oh, no planting yet. Funny I did think about it this weekend though. I was going to try Skyepony's kids swimming pool idea. My remaining tomatoes will surely die with this next round of cold. Lost all my basil!
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TS - Love the cool temps! I'll take all of it I can get. Does seem a bit late in the year for us to still be having these cold snaps. LOVE IT, LOVE IT! Can we do a cold dance so it stays through say May!
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Quoting conchygirl:
Good Morning: Yeah, the cooler weather has returned. I'm soaking it in to help when the heat and humidity return. Sorry Surfmom - I love the cooler temps and low humidity! :)


Hey girl you didn't do any planting did you....Freezing temperatures are coming as i told ya last week...
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SurfMom the GOM temperature is warmer than the air temperature......Just stay in the water, the GOM water is warmer.....LMAO
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Good Morning: Yeah, the cooler weather has returned. I'm soaking it in to help when the heat and humidity return. Sorry Surfmom - I love the cooler temps and low humidity! :)
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Quoting vortfix:
wimp......LOL

Bwahahahahahahahahahaha...better duck and cover man!



yep i probably should delete that before she see's it......
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Quoting surfmom:
TampaSpin!! -- Okay you told me about the waves...but dude you forgot to mention the cold temps. coming w/it --- No FAIR!! THAT WAS A CRUEL TEASER LOL

Really tried to be a good sport and surf these guilt free cold front waves..... but my heat reserves from the summer are all depleted -- it gets more and more difficult to get out there when the air & water are soooo cold......so dear friends...please, please forgive me....... but the memories of Hurricane Dolly and her most lovely waves are playing in my memory -- over and over --- warm water, lovely waves..... will they come my way again?


wimp......LOL
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TampaSpin!! -- Okay you told me about the waves...but dude you forgot to mention the cold temps. coming w/it --- No FAIR!! THAT WAS A CRUEL TEASER LOL

Really tried to be a good sport and surf these guilt free cold front waves..... but my heat reserves from the summer are all depleted -- it gets more and more difficult to get out there when the air & water are soooo cold......so dear friends...please, please forgive me....... but the memories of Hurricane Dolly and her most lovely waves are playing in my memory -- over and over --- warm water, lovely waves..... will they come my way again?
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I was just looking at some of the comments posted on earlier, specifically about the CFS long-range forecast not depicting much development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and about Drak's comment regarding strong subsidence across the basin from May through July.

First off, that subsidence thing might actually be a bad thing. Why? Simple. Subsidence inhibits convection, and thus tropical cyclogenesis. If we don't see any development from May through July, no heat energy will be absorbed from the ocean. Thus, come August and September when development begins in earnest, we could see a tropical cyclone rapidly deepen under the right conditions, because none of the heat energy will have been used up. With the good comes the bad.

In regards to Severe's comment about not much in the Caribbean or GoM this season, I have two reasons to disagree with that forecast from the CFS, which are: A) I can't think of many, if any seasons off the top of my head where there hasn't been any development in at least one of the two aforementioned locations. Even during the most inactive years for the Gulf, like 1984, we've still had a storm in there. It's the same for the Caribbean, even if we don't always get a hurricane there, we still almost always see a named storm there. The major factor against this forecast, though, is the fact it's at least 7 months out. Regardless of how far we've advanced, there is currently no way we can even come close to accurately forecasting weather that far in advance. Hell, we still have difficulty with forecasts two weeks in advance. Thus, giving credence to any long-range forecast is faulty. This is why I don't take Gray's forecasts for hurricane season seriously until May. Even in April when he releases his forecasts, it's only going to be a guessing game. Nothing more. And the same principle I mentioned in regards to Drak's comment about subsidence from May through July applies to your comment about no development in the Caribbean or GoM, Severe; if we don't get very much development in the GoM or Caribbean this year, then assuming we have a warmer than normal winter (quite possible if El Nino develops this winter as some predict), SSTs will be above average in those two areas in 2010, and thus, with none of 2009's heat energy having been used up there. With the good comes the bad.

I realize that both Drak and Severe's comments were written with good intentions. So was mine, though, and I apologize sincerely for the rant. I'm rather good at that. :)


Its all good,
I just thought it was weird that it prediced Hurricane Ike in February Last year.
I just thought it was intresting that it even though there was not much tropical cyclogenesis here there were numerous storms in the E. Pacific.

Now as far as confidence in the forecast goes, I think their is no way it is correct but again Its fun to look as far as 9 months in advance...

Intresting Fact,
Did you know Accuweather relies on CFS heavily in their seasonal forecasts? No wonder their wrong.
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Quoting vortfix:
Seas are 4-6ft over here on the east coast today Smom.

The Gulf Stream is really rocking!

-- figures... my turn may come on Thursday --- but the temps. may be just too much --I've used up my summer core heat reserve --
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I was just looking at some of the comments posted on earlier, specifically about the CFS long-range forecast not depicting much development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and about Drak's comment regarding strong subsidence across the basin from May through July.

First off, that subsidence thing might actually be a bad thing. Why? Simple. Subsidence inhibits convection, and thus tropical cyclogenesis. If we don't see any development from May through July, no heat energy will be absorbed from the ocean. Thus, come August and September when development begins in earnest, we could see a tropical cyclone rapidly deepen under the right conditions, because none of the heat energy will have been used up. With the good comes the bad.

In regards to Severe's comment about not much in the Caribbean or GoM this season, I have two reasons to disagree with that forecast from the CFS, which are: A) I can't think of many, if any seasons off the top of my head where there hasn't been any development in at least one of the two aforementioned locations. Even during the most inactive years for the Gulf, like 1984, we've still had a storm in there. It's the same for the Caribbean, even if we don't always get a hurricane there, we still almost always see a named storm there. The major factor against this forecast, though, is the fact it's at least 7 months out. Regardless of how far we've advanced, there is currently no way we can even come close to accurately forecasting weather that far in advance. Hell, we still have difficulty with forecasts two weeks in advance. Thus, giving credence to any long-range forecast is faulty. This is why I don't take Gray's forecasts for hurricane season seriously until May. Even in April when he releases his forecasts, it's only going to be a guessing game. Nothing more. And the same principle I mentioned in regards to Drak's comment about subsidence from May through July applies to your comment about no development in the Caribbean or GoM, Severe; if we don't get very much development in the GoM or Caribbean this year, then assuming we have a warmer than normal winter (quite possible if El Nino develops this winter as some predict), SSTs will be above average in those two areas in 2010, and thus, with none of 2009's heat energy having been used up there. With the good comes the bad.

I realize that both Drak and Severe's comments were written with good intentions. So was mine, though, and I apologize sincerely for the rant. I'm rather good at that. :)
Pretty interesting analysis here. I think even Gray himself would have to agree w/ u on the longterm forecasts LOL. I've long held the opinion that those forecasts are more about learning about forecasting than about actually giving anyone a genuine idea of what will happen. I also see some validity to your comments about the build up in thermal potential for the latter part of the season (or even for next season) if these long range forecasts do pan out.

I'm more interested in the long-term ENSO forecasts, though. What happens if we transition into a deep el nino, something the forecasts have been hinting at for a while, during that Jun-Jul-Aug period? (thinking long and short term here.)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22735
Quoting CybrTeddy:
103 Days till Hurricane season,


I don't know what I'd do with out you Teddy!

although waves via coldfronts are getting to me
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103 Days till Hurricane season,
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Cold front Waves GOMEX / SWFL
Wed building S windswell at best s facers 1-2ft. Thursday: W swell filling in during the day but again only 1-3ft. Friday am: knee to waist high, clean leftovers going flat for next weekend.

Tampaspin told me I'd be getting waves, although he left out the colder temps...... I might get something to ride out of this cold front..... water was at 62 degrees - may drop some-

Easy to get wet in the begining of the winter... having a harder time of it now. Been well over a month since I had a decent ride..... missed the last set of coldfront waves.... maybe these will have my name on them
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Morning Surfmom - 28*f in Macon, Ga 606am EST
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51 degrees here in SWFL -- Think some dude in Canada left the Freezer door open.
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Victoria fires death toll climbs to 200, firefighter killed by falling tree near Marysville

Article from: AAP

By Melissa Iaria, Greg Roberts and Xavier La Canna

February 17, 2009 08:43pm

A FIREFIGHTER is dead after being killed by a falling tree near Marysville, northeast of Melbourne.

Police confirmed the firefighter died just after after 7pm (AEDT) when a tree fell on a car.

The firefighter died at the scene at Cambarville, just east of Marysville in the Yarra Ranges National Park.

It is understood the firefighter was helping with the Victoria fires recovery effort.

Another passenger in the car was not injured.

The death toll from the Victoria fires now stands at 200, with 11 new deaths confirmed by police from the savage Kinglake Complex bushfires.

The hardest hit community from the devastating fires, which began amid high wind and extreme heat on February 7, is Strathewen, on Melbourne's northeastern fringe, where 42 people out of about 200 residents are confirmed dead.

The number of dead confirmed at Kinglake is now 37, four more than yesterday, while 21 deaths have now been recorded at nearby St Andrews.

At Steels Creek, 10 people have now been confirmed dead, with the toll rising to two at Strath Creek.

The Kinglake Complex, covering a vast section of Victoria's central highlands, now accounts for 139 of the 200 deaths.

The toll at Marysville, which stands at 39, is expected to rise sharply as the search for the remains of missing people continues.

Meanwhile, anger at accused bushfire arsonist Brendan Sokaluk has led to threats against a member of his family and harassment of a former girlfriend.

Mr Sokaluk, 39, is charged with lighting the Churchill fire, which killed at least 10 people, and is in custody at a secret location amid fears vigilantes will harm him.

He has been charged with one count each of arson causing death, intentionally lighting a bushfire and possessing child pornography.

Victoria's Supreme Court today heard there had been threats to at least one member of Mr Sokaluk's family.

At a hearing to decide whether a suppression order banning publication of Mr Sokaluk's image should be lifted, the accused arsonist's lawyer Julian McMahon revealed news of the threats.

"There have been ... threats made to one other family member at least that I'm aware of," Mr McMahon said.

"Not only is there the understandable community anger which suddenly has a focus point, there's also vicious hatred appearing in another kind of medium.

"Facebook groups were ... showing my client's photo and calling for his torture and death."

Most of the Facebook pages relating to Mr Sokaluk have since been removed and the accused arsonist's MySpace page has been taken down.

The comments came the same day the mother of Mr Sokaluk's former girlfriend publicly called for understanding at their situation.

The woman, who did not wish to be named, is the mother of Alexandra, who was in a three-month relationship with Mr Sokaluk last year.

"Our family has already experienced harassment and community ill-feeling as a result of the media linking our family with the accused," she said.

She said her daughter had a stable job that she enjoyed and was a valuable member of the local community.

"We fear this could be jeopardised by the current publicity," she said in a statement distributed by police.

Mr McMahon said there was a "very ugly aspect" to the media reporting in the case, and identity could also be an issue at any trial of Mr Sokaluk.

The court case to decide whether Mr Sokaluk's image can be shown will return to court on Friday.

Meanwhile Victoria Police want to ban messages being posted on internet blogs about Mr Sokaluk.

"It could (jeopardise the case) - Victoria police are taking some action to take a look at that," Deputy Commissioner Kieran Walshe said.

"We'll talk with the DPP (Director of Public Prosecutions) and we'll also make some inquiries with the blogging side of it, whether we can have it removed.

"We don't want anything to take place, we don't want anything to be done, that might jeopardise a fair trial down the track."

Victorian Premier John Brumby called on the public to let justice takes its course.

"I know how angry we all feel about what's occurred, but I can't comment on specific cases and the community as a whole must let justice take its course and that's a matter now for the courts."

Mr Sokaluk has been remanded in custody to appear at a committal mention on May 26.

He has not entered a plea nor applied for bail.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
659. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number SIX
TROPICAL CYCLONE INNIS, CATEGORY ONE
18:00 PM FST February 17 2009
========================================

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Innis, Category One (995 hPa) located at 21.8S 163.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots close to the center, increasing to 40 knots during the next 6 to 12 hours. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 13 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/visible imagery with animation.

Gale-Force Winds
====================
Gale force winds within 200 NM of the center in the southern quadrant and within 120 NM elsewhere of the center

TC Innis lies along the northwestern periphery of a mid-level anticyclonic circulation in an area of low shear with an upper level diffluence to the east.

Dvorak analysis based on a wrap of 0.55 on LOG10 Spiral yeilds DT=2.5, MET=PT=3.0, FT based on MET

Thus T3.0/3.0/D1.0/ 24 HRS

CIMMS indicates that the system lies in a low sheared environment and is expected to move into an environment of increasing shear within the next 12 to 24 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Tropical Cyclone Innis is being steered southwest by a northeasterly deep layer mean flow. Global models show that TC Innis will remain on a southwesterly trajectory within the next 24 hours before turning south with little intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 24.5S 162.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 27.9S 160.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 37.0S 162.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47029
658. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Nadi is slow with the Tropical Disturbance Advisory..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47029
657. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
The depression is now Tropical Cyclone Innis..

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER BRISBANE

Tropical Cyclone INNIS 10F [995hPa] centre was located 21.8S 163.9E at 170600 UTC.

Cyclone moving south-southwest at about 13 knots.

Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre, increasing to 40 knots during the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 200 nautical miles of centre in the southern quadrant and within 120 nautical miles elsewhere of centre.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 025.

RE-ISSUED BY THE TCWC BRISBANE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47029
656. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number FIVE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-F
15:00 PM FST February 17 2009
=========================================

At 03:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression TEN-F (998 hPa) located at 21.1S 164.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots in the sector 30 to 120 NM of the center in the northeast quadrant and in sector 30 to 180 NM of the center in the southeast quadrant. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 14 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation.

TD TEN-F lies along the northwestern periphery of a mid level anticyclonic circulation in an area of low shear. Outflow remains good to the east and developing to south but restricted elsewhere. Latest radar imagery from New Caledonia shows good banding as the system moved over the landmass.

Dvorak analysis based on a wrap of 0.35 on LOG10 spiral yields DT=2.0. MET=2.5, PT=2.0. FT based on MET.

Thus T2.5/2.5/D0.5/ 24 HRS

The system lies to the south of a 250 HPA ridge and is being steered southwestward. TD TEN-F is currently being influenced by an upper short wave trough. However, CIMSS indicates increasing shear to the south. Sea surface temperatures is around 27C. Global models agree on a southwest movement with little or no intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS MODERATE BUT LOW THEREAFTER.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47029
Quoting Cotillion:


Funny - I had a gut feeling this year was going to start a low slower than the previous few...



I've had that feeling as well. Then again, I had the very same feeling about 2008, and well... >_>
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Quoting Skyepony:
South Australian tease...


From the RSMC they have issued their final tropical disturbance summary on 10F(15P).

Anyway, visit my contest! The due date is February.
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Quoting Drakoen:
I just looked at the EUROSIP multi-model forecast and it seems to show strongly above-average pressure across the MDR region coupled with more widespread subsident conditions through the May, June,and July time frame. Still, obviously, a lot of time for change; but, nevertheless, interesting to note.


Funny - I had a gut feeling this year was going to start a low slower than the previous few...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was just looking at some of the comments posted on earlier, specifically about the CFS long-range forecast not depicting much development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and about Drak's comment regarding strong subsidence across the basin from May through July.

First off, that subsidence thing might actually be a bad thing. Why? Simple. Subsidence inhibits convection, and thus tropical cyclogenesis. If we don't see any development from May through July, no heat energy will be absorbed from the ocean. Thus, come August and September when development begins in earnest, we could see a tropical cyclone rapidly deepen under the right conditions, because none of the heat energy will have been used up. With the good comes the bad.

In regards to Severe's comment about not much in the Caribbean or GoM this season, I have two reasons to disagree with that forecast from the CFS, which are: A) I can't think of many, if any seasons off the top of my head where there hasn't been any development in at least one of the two aforementioned locations. Even during the most inactive years for the Gulf, like 1984, we've still had a storm in there. It's the same for the Caribbean, even if we don't always get a hurricane there, we still almost always see a named storm there. The major factor against this forecast, though, is the fact it's at least 7 months out. Regardless of how far we've advanced, there is currently no way we can even come close to accurately forecasting weather that far in advance. Hell, we still have difficulty with forecasts two weeks in advance. Thus, giving credence to any long-range forecast is faulty. This is why I don't take Gray's forecasts for hurricane season seriously until May. Even in April when he releases his forecasts, it's only going to be a guessing game. Nothing more. And the same principle I mentioned in regards to Drak's comment about subsidence from May through July applies to your comment about no development in the Caribbean or GoM, Severe; if we don't get very much development in the GoM or Caribbean this year, then assuming we have a warmer than normal winter (quite possible if El Nino develops this winter as some predict), SSTs will be above average in those two areas in 2010, and thus, with none of 2009's heat energy having been used up there. With the good comes the bad.

I realize that both Drak and Severe's comments were written with good intentions. So was mine, though, and I apologize sincerely for the rant. I'm rather good at that. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
651. Skyepony (Mod)
South Australian tease...


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39438
Quoting conchygirl:
BRRR Surfmom....you must be hating the cold.
I was happy yesterday and miserable today --- I just tightened right up.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
fla gets colder as plains system tracks quickly towards lower lakes with cold air on backside rushing into the east with a clipper droppin down from north western canda on the weekend with a reinforcing shot of cold air for end of weekend


Makes for waves -- just got to deal with the cold... It's getting a little old now -- I could take it in the beginning -- now I shudder and have to climb over that feeling....
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Quoting surfmom:
Geof -- there you go loving these cool temps...I'm sure Madison prefers this weather -- she's looking so lovely!!
BRRR Surfmom....you must be hating the cold.
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Geof -- there you go loving these cool temps...I'm sure Madison prefers this weather -- she's looking so lovely!!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Here in West Palm tomorrow...highs in the upper 60's - low 70's...:)...another cold snap later in the week with lows in the 40's


I know....lows are expected to reach in the low 40s in central FL
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fla gets colder as plains system tracks quickly towards lower lakes with cold air on backside rushing into the east with a clipper droppin down from north western canda on the weekend with a reinforcing shot of cold air for end of weekend
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141


storm system movin unto plains
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Here in West Palm tomorrow...highs in the upper 60's - low 70's...:)...another cold snap later in the week with lows in the 40's
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Quoting futuremet:
639

I hate the COLD! and it seems to be making a temporary comeback here in FL


It will be warmer here tommorow =]
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
hmmmm.......

Its intresting to note that the long-range CFS does not develop much in the GOM or CAR this hurricane season.
But has 2 Nasty Fish/Cape Verde Hurricanes in September.
do you know models are meant to be used as guidance only and do not depict final outcome in any one event things can and will always change
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
639

I hate the COLD! and it seems to be making a temporary comeback here in FL
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I love this cool weather...makes up for the miserable summers and high a.c. bills...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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