Record -50°F confirmed for Maine; is this inconsistent with global warming?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on February 13, 2009

Share this Blog
5
+

The lowest temperature ever recorded in the state of Maine, a -50°F reading taken on January 16, has been confirmed as real, according to a press release issued by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and National Weather Service this week. The new record occurred at 7:15 a.m. Jan. 16 at a remote river gauge in Big Black River (see USGS image at right), about four miles from the Canadian border. It ties the record set in 1933 for New England's lowest temperature, set at Bloomfield, Vermont. The old Maine record was -48°F, set in 1925 at Van Buren. All-time state records are difficult to break. The last time a state record low was set occurred January 5, 1999, when Congerville, Illinois recorded -36°F. Only one state record high temperature has been set in the past the decade--the 120°F temperature measured in Usta, South Dakota on July 15, 2006.

All-time record lows are inconsistent with global warming, right?
An impressive cold wave hit the northern and eastern portions of the U.S. January 11-18, with 17 states reporting record daily lows. In addition to the coldest temperature ever measured in Maine, one station, Waterloo, Iowa, tied its 1962 record for all-time coldest temperature, when the mercury hit -34°F on January 16. If global warming is occurring, we should not expect to see very many all-time city or state records being set. The nation's January-December average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.12°F per decade since 1895, and at a faster rate of 0.41°F per decade during the last 50 years. This 2°F rise in temperature has undoubtedly allowed more high temperature than low temperature records to be broken. However, this is a low enough amount of warming that there should still be a few cold temperature records being set, since the weather is so highly variable.

The statistics support this position. The Waterloo, Iowa mark was only the second time this decade that an all-time record cold temperature has been set at a major U.S. city. The cities I consider are the 303 cities author Chris Burt tracks in his excellent Extreme Weather book. The cites chosen were selected based primarily on their length of weather records (all the records go back to at least 1948, with most going back to the 1800s), and include all the largest cities in the U.S. The only other all-time coldest temperature record set at these cities this decade was the -44°F recorded in Grand Forks, North Dakota on 1/30/2004. By contrast, 49 all-time high temperature marks have been set this decade (Figure 1).

Perhaps a better judge of the impact of global warming on extreme temperatures, though, is to look at record warmest and coldest months. Month-long records are more reflective of the climate than an extreme event lasting just a few days. No all-time coldest month records were at any U.S. cities during January 2009, and it was not even close. Despite the cold blast of Jan. 11-18, the month of January finished out above average in temperature for the lower 48 states. So far this decade, no U.S. major city has set an all-time coldest month record. The last time a coldest month record was set occurred in January, 1994 when Caribou Maine and Bayfield, Wisconsin recorded their coldest month. By contrast, there have been 61 all-time warmest month records set in those same 303 cities between 2000 and 2008 (Figure 1). The summer of 2007 alone saw 42 all-time high (or warmest month ever) records. Just one record was set in the summer of 2008.


Figure 1. Minimum and maximum temperatures records for the U.S. for 303 major stations. The image has been updated through January 2009 to include the one record low set that month. The original version of this image was for 2007, and I modified it to update it for four changes made in the 2008 data. The numbers for the decade of the 2000s are correct, but there are four (out of 606) records that need to be subtracted off some of the earlier decades. Note the the 1930s were the most extreme decade for total number of records set, but the 1920s were the least extreme. U.S. weather has a high degree of variability from decade to decade. Image credit: Chris Burt, Extreme Weather.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
There have been 110 all-time high temperature or all-time warmest month records set at the 303 major U.S. cities this decade, and only two such low temperature records set. Is this disparity due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

My next post will be sometime Tue-Thu.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 139 - 89

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Happy Valentines day. 108 Days till Hurricane season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Ohh by the way Happy Valentines Day...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This Guy has Guts!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like everyone is still sleeping this morning..'cept me and the cardinal whose singing his morning song.

happy to find all six chickens safe & sound -- no Valentines Day Massacre...thwarted that coon!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all - 59 degrees this morning - the promise of a lovely day ahead... waiting on sunrise.....woke to chickens screaming at 5:00AM -- seems a 'coon got in the outer enclosure of the coop. Flew out of the house with in broom -- and the dog -- (my neighbors are sure to be thinking kind thoughts this AM) and scared the critter off --talk about a jump start morning. (somehow the men slept through it all)

HAPPY VALENTINES DAY TO ALL -
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 245 am CST for
northeastern St. Landry Parish...

At 232 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a possible tornado 6 miles northeast of Palmetto... moving
east at 50 mph. This storm is also capable of producing quarter
sized hail along with wind gusts over 60 mph.

Lat... Lon 3068 9191 3085 9194 3086 9180 3085 9179
3082 9180 3081 9177 3078 9175 3075 9175
3074 9173 3071 9173 3068 9173
time... Mot... loc 0837z 269deg 44kt 3076 9178
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
133. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TEN-F
9:00 AM FST February 14 2009
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance Ten-F (1007 hPa) located at 18.0S 174.0E is reported as moving slowly. Position POOR based on Multispectral infrared/visible with animation. Sea surface temperatures is around 29C.

System lies to the north of a 250 HPA trough under a diffluence region with low level circulation center difficult to locate. Convection has been persistent for the last 24 hours, However organization remains disorganized. T.D. TEN-F is steered by low level northeasterlies into an area of moderate shear.

Global models (UK/EC/GFS] has picked up the system and moves it southwest with little intensification

POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46912
Do meteorologists ever study math? If they did they would understand that the numbers used for an average or mean temperature are mathematically worthless. Averages in general are of little or no scientific value.

The averages used for temperatures are mathematically worthless. You cannot average the high and low numbers in an irregularly distributed set of numbers and get a result that has any meaning. Average temperatures for winter are particularly questionable because the temperature may be at or near the high for an hour or less, but may be at or near the low for several hours. This situation occurs in part because the dew point sets a floor under the temperature which limits how far the temperature can fall even though the temperature may fall to near the dew point early in the evening.

A single all time record low in Maine might not be significant, but it is part of a pattern of colder weather including last winter's freezing temperatures in Saudi Arabia and Vietnam and snowfall last September on tropical flowers in Brazil.

Incidentally, airport temperatures may be higher than rural temperatures because pavement converts solar radiation into heat and warms the surrounding area if winds are light.

Many of the sites used for temperature measure of very dubious value.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just heard one of the witnesses to the crash on CNN. He said that the airplane noise was louder than normal indicating that the plane was too low. He also noticed the engine making a higher pitch sound indicating that they were revving up more than normal. This would be consistent with an airplane struggling to recover from a down burst or from a stall. A stall is when the wings are no longer providing enough lift to keep the airplane in the air. This would be consist with excessive ice on the wings or with the airflow over the wings being disrupted as what can happen if the wind direction were to change suddenly to behind the airplane effectively decreasing the speed of airflow over the wings. There appear to be a number of possibilities being revealed by all the data that is coming in. The one thing that is consistent in all of this is that for some reason, the airplane seems to have lost it's lift and ability to fly. Apparently this happened so fast the pilot didn't have time to radio in and was fighting to save the airplane.

Anderson Cooper on CNN was just interviewing an airline pilot about this crash. He explained that this airplane was built in Canada where they understand icing problems very well. This plane was built to deal with this kind of problem. He also explain what could have caused the apparent sputtering sound from the engines. He said that when an airplane like this is in an abnormal configuration trying to recover, the engine propeller noise from the two engines can making a beating or sputtering sound even though the engines are both running normally. He did mention also that the plane could have run into a pool of air that was saturated with ice. That would explain why none of the other airplanes were affected. But he also warned against doing to much speculating and suggested we wait until the NTSB has done it's investigations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WunderFul:
Hi folks -- been lurking for quite a while waiting for the tropics to start getting busy again. Wanted to thank Dr. Masters for a great blog entry. I've been having the discussion with several friends lately about the recent cold wave still being consistent w/ global warming theory. Funny how your local weather makes you think everything is "global", and how short-frame most peoples' thinking and memories are. I remember the same week we were building impressive ice dams on our roofs up north they were getting record highs in So Cal & AZ -- it is the global averages we have to watch over time, not the occasional extreme peaks and troughs. I'm sure the vocal "no warming" crowd will find some ways to go after this -- you can always find a way to argue against common sense and increasingly robust longitudinal evidence if you try hard enough. Have at it!



I remember years ago listening to a program on TV about one of the first computer modals used to check what would happen if the earth temperature increased. The computer model predicted that the conditions around the world would swing between hot and cold, dry and wet, calm and severe in more extreme swings than what we used to see before. What we have been seeing for that last 10 to 15 years would seem to fall into that category. Whether those swings are outside of what is normal is another story and way beyond my expertise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also, I am a little concerned about one of the witnesses on the ground saying that they heard the airplanes engines sputtering. There are a number of things that could cause that, but the airplane should have been able to glide in and fly on one engine. Hopefully we will here what is found on the cockpit recorders tomorrow. They would have recorded everything said in the cockpit and what the airplane mechanisism was doing right up to the crash.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i dont know just what i feel maybe some one new a rookie in following hes procedures it was done in haste lots of ice caught in an unexpected heavy shower of freezing rain had problems got him runnin scared but one slip up was all it took


Oh, I see. Read my post number 127. There were three pilots on board, one of them riding as a Dead Header (after this, they may change that title to something else. I hate that wording.) and was a highly experience airline captain. Even if the pilot and copilot missed this issue, the Dead Heading Captain would not have.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the stand point of pilot error, if the pilot had ice building up on the wings and didn't take it seriously or notice it (not very likely) then the ice could build up to the point that the wing lift would decrease fairly rapidly. I'm surprised that the pilot of 3407 didn't make mention of the icing while the other pilots did. Does that mean that she wasn't paying attention? It's possible, but not likely as there was a highly experience airline captain on the airline as well as the copilot. With all of this experience on board 3407, I'm sure that one of them would have noticed and remind the pilot if necessary. It is possible that the ice built up so fast that the deicing equipment on the airplane couldn't handle it, but that's pretty rare. They said on TV that the switch to turn on the deicer was in the on position. They do not know if the equipment was working as it should at this point in time. That is one of the things that the NTSB and the FAA will be looking at. I also understand that the FBI is looking into this in case terrorism was involved.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i dont know just what i feel maybe some one new a rookie in following hes procedures it was done in haste lots of ice caught in an unexpected heavy shower of freezing rain had problems got him runnin scared but one slip up was all it took
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a rookie pilot some one new maybe in a hurry scared missed one to prove fatal


Can you say that again with a little more detail. I'm not sure what you just said.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
121 aren't you just wunderful
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Would you not raise the flaps back up to gain some speed if you was stalling. If the plane was much heavier because of icing.....problem would have been tho, if it stalled and the flaps was up then that's double trouble....I think as badly as i hate to say it but, Pilot error and bad judgement will probably be the problem.


No, you never raise flaps to gain speed, everyone who has been through pilot training knows that. That's one of the first things that you learn to get your private pilots license. Airspeed in controlled by changing your decent rate or attitude. If you need to increase your speed, you lower the nose a little and raise it to slow down. You increase power to the engine to decrease the rate of decent and decrease power to increase the rate of descent.

If you have never taken pilot training or flown as a pilot, I realize that this may not make sense to you. It seems to be backwards, but this is what you have to learn to do to land the airplane. It takes a little getting use to when you first learn to fly. An airline pilot would have so much experience and so many hours flying, that he/she wouldn't even think about it. It's all pretty much automatic just like the way you drive your car. It's true that lowering the flaps increases the drag on the airplane, but when you do that, you also increase the power a little to maintain your rate of decent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
a rookie pilot some one new maybe in a hurry scared missed one to prove fatal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi folks -- been lurking for quite a while waiting for the tropics to start getting busy again. Wanted to thank Dr. Masters for a great blog entry. I've been having the discussion with several friends lately about the recent cold wave still being consistent w/ global warming theory. Funny how your local weather makes you think everything is "global", and how short-frame most peoples' thinking and memories are. I remember the same week we were building impressive ice dams on our roofs up north they were getting record highs in So Cal & AZ -- it is the global averages we have to watch over time, not the occasional extreme peaks and troughs. I'm sure the vocal "no warming" crowd will find some ways to go after this -- you can always find a way to argue against common sense and increasingly robust longitudinal evidence if you try hard enough. Have at it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:



you'd have to figure they lowered the thrust before they'd lower the flaps,maybe when they tried to put the flaps back up they didn't increase the thrust first,causing a stall and the plane then spiraled strait down....


Once again, no sane pilot would do that. They are trained to follow specific procedures. Once the flaps are lowered for landing, they stay down until they land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is a copy of the ATC conversation from YouTube with flight 3407, the dash 8, and several other airliners in the area coming in to the airport. All of the pilots, except 3407, report RIME ICING, but none reported it to be really serious. One plane said that the ice started coming off below 3000 feet.

Here is another one from YouTube.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MNTornado:


Where did you hear the controller tapes?
I have not heard them on TV yet. Also the reports that I've heard is that the flaps were put down a little before the crash happened. Nothing about raising them back up. That would have been a stupid move for the pilot to do that. The purpose of lowering the flaps is to increase the curvature of the wings and increase their lifting ability. This is normal for all airline pilots to do that when coming in on final. It allow the pilot to lower the speed of the airplane with out loosing the lift. What you are suggesting would fall under the heading of Pilot Error. I can't imagine any sane pilot doing that.

Also, it's usually icing that occurs on the front or leading edge of the wing that causes the wing to loose lift. If the wing had enough ice to be a factor with the flaps, the plane would have gone down before they lowered the flaps.


Would you not raise the flaps back up to gain some speed if you was stalling. If the plane was much heavier because of icing.....problem would have been tho, if it stalled and the flaps was up then thats double trouble....I think as badly as i hate to say it but, Pilot error and bad judgement will probably be the problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MNTornado:


Where did you hear the controller tapes?
I have not heard them on TV yet. Also the reports that I've heard is that the flaps were put down a little before the crash happened. Nothing about raising them back up. That would have been a stupid move for the pilot to do that. The purpose of lowering the flaps is to increase the curvature of the wings and increase their lifting ability. This is normal for all airline pilots to do that when coming in on final. It allow the pilot to lower the speed of the airplane with out loosing the lift. What you are suggesting would fall under the heading of Pilot Error. I can't imagine any sane pilot doing that.

Also, it's usually icing that occurs on the front or leading edge of the wing that causes the wing to loose lift. If the wing had enough ice to be a factor with the flaps, the plane would have gone down before they lowered the flaps.



you'd have to figure they lowered the thrust before they'd lower the flaps,maybe when they tried to put the flaps back up they didn't increase the thrust first,causing a stall and the plane then spiraled strait down....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is one of the tornadoes from earlier this week



HD VERSION

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting charlottefl:
Pretty sure the flaps were iced over. They said as soon as they raised the flaps, within seconds they lost control of the plane. And shortly before they plane crashed the crew attempted to raise the landing gear and lower the flaps, but the plane was too far out of control at that point. If you listen to the ATC tapes you can hear the concern of one of the pilots approaching for landing. As he states several times they were having icing problems and he was wanting to descend to land.


Where did you hear the controller tapes?
I have not heard them on TV yet. Also the reports that I've heard is that the flaps were put down a little before the crash happened. Nothing about raising them back up. That would have been a stupid move for the pilot to do that. The purpose of lowering the flaps is to increase the curvature of the wings and increase their lifting ability. This is normal for all airline pilots to do that when coming in on final. It allow the pilot to lower the speed of the airplane with out loosing the lift. What you are suggesting would fall under the heading of Pilot Error. I can't imagine any sane pilot doing that.

Also, it's usually icing that occurs on the front or leading edge of the wing that causes the wing to loose lift. If the wing had enough ice to be a factor with the flaps, the plane would have gone down before they lowered the flaps.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Regarding this post
108. stillwaiting 10:35 PM CST on February 13, 2009



I wish that I would have thought sooner to saved a copy of the Nexrad 40 frame loop that I was looking at last night. The loop was showing snow falling at the time of the crash. Also the bow echo image that I saw was in motion from NW to SE. In the 40 frame loop which covers about 3 hours time span, the bow echo moved approximately 10 to 20 miles. I've never seen the transition of freezing rain to snow move like that before. Also the radar was showing snow and not freezing rain. I've never seen a bow echo in a snow storm before, but then I had never heard of Thunder Snow until I witnessed it in St. Paul, Minnesota either. It seems to me that if a snow storm can be severe enough to cause lighting and thunder, it can be severe enough to cause a gust front also. Since I wasn't there when this happened, I can only express what I suspect based on what I saw on the radar. I just wish that I had saved a copy of the 40 frame loop so that I could display it for everyone to see. Then you would know exactly what I saw and tell me what that was that I saw.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't like the looks of this dry line again....this was the same set up this week with the severe weather that hit Oklahoma.....differece is tho is the Jet Stream is down that low yet....



Indeed, the conditions at the lower levels is akin to last week's. However, the upper level atmospheric dynamics does not seem to favor any substantial severe weather threat. Last week a highly amplified shortwave trough propagated through Texas and Oklahoma. The upper level trough helped advect cold air southward at its left and warm air to its right, which made the baroclinity of the region more significant. and as a result, the dynamic lift was stronger. The high jet-max winds embedded within the shortwave helped the upper level divergence of the isolated super-cellular thunderstorms that produced the tornadoes a couple of days ago.

The current 500mb chart doesn't anything of much significance at the upper atmosphere

All-in-all, there is a slight chance for severe weather.....but not an OUTBREAK

I think we will be on the safe side this week (I hope)

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Pretty sure the flaps were iced over. They said as soon as they raised the flaps, within seconds they lost control of the plane. And shortly before they plane crashed the crew attempted to raise the landing gear and lower the flaps, but the plane was too far out of control at that point. If you listen to the ATC tapes you can hear the concern of one of the pilots approaching for landing. As he states several times they were having icing problems and he was wanting to descend to land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't like the looks of this dry line again....this was the same set up this week with the severe weather that hit Oklahoma.....differece is tho is the Jet Stream is down that low yet....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
too much accidents these days...
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting stillwaiting:



I think it has to do with the rear rudder not functioning properly and one of the engine's stalling....and not having anything to do with a bow echo or downburst,the precip.was not nearly heavy enough,what you saw was the transition of precip. to snow,not a bow echo..



Yes it was snowing not raining.....

I believe it will come out that a rear rudder was froze and not working causing the plane to go into a sharp turn and with ice build up on the wings and causing the plane to go into a stall and come down like a concrete block.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MNTornado:
Regarding the dash 8 that crashed last night near Buffalo, NY. I doubt that icing was the cause of the crash. My reason is that even though I don't have a pilots license, I did in fact train to get my private pilots license and have some knowledge in this area.

According to reports I have heard on TV, the pilot of the dash 8 didn't say anything to controllers about having any problems with the airplane. I know from my training and experience that icing doesn't cause sudden loss of lift of the airframe and wings. It builds up and the pilot would have noticed something and reported it before the dash 8 got to heavy to fly. All the descriptions that I have heard on TV indicate the the cause of the crash was rather sudden and caused the plane to go down before the pilot could make a call for help. To me, that means catastrophic failure of the airplane systems or some outside influence that drove the airplane into the ground. I suspect the later because of something that I believe that I saw on the Buffalo, NY nexrad radar image. I took a look at the radar for Buffalo last night after hearing about the crash. I looked at a 40 frame loop that would have covered the time frame during the airplanes crash. The radar showed that it was snowing in Buffalo last night during the crash. I also noted something that I'm not sure if it was what it appeared to be. I sent an email to Dr. Jeff Masters to take a look himself and see if he can see the same thing in the radar image archive. What I saw appeared to be a bow echo moving through Buffalo, NY moving from Northwest to Southeast. This bow echo image is something that I've seen many times on radar images since being with WU for the last 4 years. Others that I've talked to about this have indicated that bow echos can indicate the presence of down bursts (downward moving air out the the thunderstorm moving at speeds of 100mph or faster). If this was a bow echo that I saw, and it contained a down burst in the Buffalo, NY area during the time the dash 8 was coming into the airport area, it's possible that the airplane was driven into the ground by the down burst. All of my experience and training over the years have indicated to me that down bursts are invisible to the pilot unless they have an on board radar that can detect it. Down bursts can and often do, destroy the air flight characteristics of the airplane thus the airplane goes into a stall and literally drops out of the sky. Pilots are trained on how to deal with stalls as part of their training, but if it occurs during take off or landing of the plane when it's too close to the ground, there is not much that the pilot can do. I've asked Dr. Masters to check this out and if he finds my data is accurate to contact the NTSB and FAA who will be investigating this crash.



I think it has to do with the rear rudder not functioning properly and one of the engine's stalling....and not having anything to do with a bow echo or downburst,the precip.was not nearly heavy enough,what you saw was the transition of precip. to snow,not a bow echo..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting calusakat:
"And yes, the water level is indeed lower than it was in their day."

Quoting pangean:
I'm sure you can provide a reference to support this contention. Actually, I'm guessing not. Nuck, nyuck, nyuck.


------------

See bappits post # 101

Nuck, nyuck, nyuck.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting and answering bappit:


Do previous changes in sea level invalidate the observed absorption spectrums of so-called green house gases? (Yes, green house is a misnomer.) No.


------------
Hmmmm...

Do previous changes in sea level validate the observed absorption spectrums of so-called green house gases?

Same answer...No.
------------

Do previous sea level changes invalidate the observed increase in green house gas concentrations? No, again.

--------------
I see, so...

Do previous sea level changes validate the observed increase in green house gas concentrations?

Strange...same answer again...No.
--------------

Do previous sea level changes invalidate the observed changes in the way heat is distributed in the atmosphere? (The surface is warming and the stratosphere is cooling.) No, yet again.

------------
Yikes stripes!...

So convection has ceased to function on our planet?

How interesting.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Twas kinda spookie wasnt it?





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good grief Pat!!!! Great Catholic minds think alike!!!! And at the exact same time.....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
very cool post on the Portlight blog...check it out...it's under "Featured Blogs"
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Good news from Dr. Masters here..in the comments Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ummmmmm, I think sea levels 8000 years ago are irrelevant to the blog topic. Yes, sea levels have been much higher than now, it would seem, for much of the last 500 million years. They have also at times been much lower.

Do previous changes in sea level invalidate the observed absorption spectrums of so-called green house gases? (Yes, green house is a misnomer.) No. Do previous sea level changes invalidate the observed increase in green house gas concentrations? No, again. Do previous sea level changes invalidate the observed changes in the way heat is distributed in the atmosphere? (The surface is warming and the stratosphere is cooling.) No, yet again.

I will give this reference that supports the idea that sea levels are lower now than 8000 years ago, but like I said, so what.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
100. rlk
Boston has actually come fairly close to setting monthly record lows twice this decade -- January 2004 (#3 at 20.7; record is 20.0) and May 2005 (#4 at 52.3; record is 50.6). The coldest 31 day period in 2004 averaged 19.6 (01/06~02/05) and the coldest 28 day period averaged 18.1 (01/06~02/02) -- only 0.6 degrees warmer than Feb. 1934 (but I think from late January~late February 1934 was probably a bit colder). Overall, though, it has been a warm decade, albeit with a notable 9 month exception between October 2002 and June 2003.

So it can still get impressively cold around here with the right kind of +PNA pattern, but that doesn't affect the long term trend.

It has been a very long time since it's hit -10 at BOS, though (it hit -7 in 2004). The last time I'm certain of was January 1957 (-12). I wonder what happened in 1934 (and December 1933) to send such extreme cold to the major cities (-18 at Boston, -14 at New York). Other stations (such as Concord, NH) set daily record lows on Feb. 9, 1934, but they weren't particularly extreme.

It actually never got all that cold right around here this winter. The lowest it got in the big cold wave was 6 above. The really cold air at low levels never quite made it down here, even though the 1000-500 thickness was down around 490 DM. Not that winter's over, but I have my doubts about locking in a big +PNA by now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dumb question - how severe is this weather that is heading east right now? We are in Savannah, GA, supposed to race on a sailboat tomorrow early afternoon and I can't figure out whether we're due for t-storms or just rain...

Any help would be appreciated...I am okay sailing in the rain but I don't DO tstorms on the water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't think Feb SST's are really a precursor to the upcoming season. If they look like that in May still then we may be onto something. Water temperatures generally recover very quickly once things begin to warm up, especially across the Caribbean. Once we get closer to May then it will be interesting to see where we are SST wise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"And yes, the water level is indeed lower than it was in their day."

I'm sure you can provide a reference to support this contention. Actually, I'm guessing not. Nuck, nyuck, nyuck.
Also, some things to consider:

- 2007's SSTs, particularly those in the Gulf of Mexico, started out relatively cool during May and June, but quickly heated up by late June.

- Believe it or not, SSTs are above average across a portion of the north-central Gulf of Mexico (admittedly, the same cannot be said of the Caribbean):

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
See the comparison of this year with previous years ... it%uFFFDs a little cold


That is indeed a very significant area of cool water. I'm surprised that most of the Caribbean is currently under 80F. Astounding.

That said, though, it's finally starting to warm back up, and I'm willing to bet that we won't have much of a winter left, at least down in the deep south. This may allow SSTs to begin to heat back up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94. JRRP
Quoting RyanCRG:
Interesting, is this from Jan. 07-08-09?


this is from Feb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
squid.. that is good to hear bro, I am glad things are moving forward, well done.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
New Section includes Mt Redoubt
I am now using Google Earth Version 5 (Thank you SF)



I am also trying something new with this link
Display Current
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting pangean:


Great story, KittieCat, except, of course that sea levels are higher today than they were 8,000 years ago. You obviously love making stuff up to support your distorted view of the world but I don't think you're fooling many folks. Then again, around here maybe you are. BTW - what was the world population 8,000 years ago? 50-60 billion maybe?


Poor pangean, he must be feeding off a grungy bilge pump too.

Can't make that stuff up about the Calusa because there is way too much being presented on the internet for me to get by with anything like that. Artifacts and wonderful artwork can be found over large areas in the area south and east of Marco Island.

The people who are part of the group who have researched the Calusa Indians will be interested in your wholesale rejection of their work. The Calusa had quite an empire back when the Spaniards were running roughshod over the world.

Marco Island is, in fact, a Calusa shell mound and the main Calusa Mound is found near Ft Myers. One was the governmental center and the other was the religious center.

And yes, the water level is indeed lower than it was in their day. The researchers even have evidence that the Calusa traveling across the area would stop at the various tree islands and look for Liguus tree snails and be able to know where they were based on the subspecies of the snail present. Today those tree islands are called Hammocks and usually only subspecies of Liguus tree snail is found in each of them.

Your careless and ignorant rejection is a classic illustration of the mentality of the AGWHP's.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those who are interested, you can contribute to help the Australian wildlife that were displaced or injured because of the devasting fires. Go to The Animal Rescue Site.com. It is listed under new arrivals.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 139 - 89

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
32 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron