Record -50°F confirmed for Maine; is this inconsistent with global warming?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on February 13, 2009

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The lowest temperature ever recorded in the state of Maine, a -50°F reading taken on January 16, has been confirmed as real, according to a press release issued by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and National Weather Service this week. The new record occurred at 7:15 a.m. Jan. 16 at a remote river gauge in Big Black River (see USGS image at right), about four miles from the Canadian border. It ties the record set in 1933 for New England's lowest temperature, set at Bloomfield, Vermont. The old Maine record was -48°F, set in 1925 at Van Buren. All-time state records are difficult to break. The last time a state record low was set occurred January 5, 1999, when Congerville, Illinois recorded -36°F. Only one state record high temperature has been set in the past the decade--the 120°F temperature measured in Usta, South Dakota on July 15, 2006.

All-time record lows are inconsistent with global warming, right?
An impressive cold wave hit the northern and eastern portions of the U.S. January 11-18, with 17 states reporting record daily lows. In addition to the coldest temperature ever measured in Maine, one station, Waterloo, Iowa, tied its 1962 record for all-time coldest temperature, when the mercury hit -34°F on January 16. If global warming is occurring, we should not expect to see very many all-time city or state records being set. The nation's January-December average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.12°F per decade since 1895, and at a faster rate of 0.41°F per decade during the last 50 years. This 2°F rise in temperature has undoubtedly allowed more high temperature than low temperature records to be broken. However, this is a low enough amount of warming that there should still be a few cold temperature records being set, since the weather is so highly variable.

The statistics support this position. The Waterloo, Iowa mark was only the second time this decade that an all-time record cold temperature has been set at a major U.S. city. The cities I consider are the 303 cities author Chris Burt tracks in his excellent Extreme Weather book. The cites chosen were selected based primarily on their length of weather records (all the records go back to at least 1948, with most going back to the 1800s), and include all the largest cities in the U.S. The only other all-time coldest temperature record set at these cities this decade was the -44°F recorded in Grand Forks, North Dakota on 1/30/2004. By contrast, 49 all-time high temperature marks have been set this decade (Figure 1).

Perhaps a better judge of the impact of global warming on extreme temperatures, though, is to look at record warmest and coldest months. Month-long records are more reflective of the climate than an extreme event lasting just a few days. No all-time coldest month records were at any U.S. cities during January 2009, and it was not even close. Despite the cold blast of Jan. 11-18, the month of January finished out above average in temperature for the lower 48 states. So far this decade, no U.S. major city has set an all-time coldest month record. The last time a coldest month record was set occurred in January, 1994 when Caribou Maine and Bayfield, Wisconsin recorded their coldest month. By contrast, there have been 61 all-time warmest month records set in those same 303 cities between 2000 and 2008 (Figure 1). The summer of 2007 alone saw 42 all-time high (or warmest month ever) records. Just one record was set in the summer of 2008.


Figure 1. Minimum and maximum temperatures records for the U.S. for 303 major stations. The image has been updated through January 2009 to include the one record low set that month. The original version of this image was for 2007, and I modified it to update it for four changes made in the 2008 data. The numbers for the decade of the 2000s are correct, but there are four (out of 606) records that need to be subtracted off some of the earlier decades. Note the the 1930s were the most extreme decade for total number of records set, but the 1920s were the least extreme. U.S. weather has a high degree of variability from decade to decade. Image credit: Chris Burt, Extreme Weather.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
There have been 110 all-time high temperature or all-time warmest month records set at the 303 major U.S. cities this decade, and only two such low temperature records set. Is this disparity due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

My next post will be sometime Tue-Thu.

Jeff Masters

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You can see the Dry line area is starting to cave in with some very strong Storms.....Problems coming as the Jet is dipping quick also....

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TORNADO WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 213 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 314 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting Skyepony:
TS The tremenous knowledge comes from the link I left~ if you read the whole thing from start to finish & not just the finish as Shep posted it all is a little clearer..

I think some people pretend the satellites don't exist when it comes to learning about our climate & a few seem resistant to even learn about them (TS I'm not refuring to you). Clouds especially can be a problem in the older ones & evey effort is made to account for that~ using other data when clouds are present before arciving. Comparing satellite data gives us a much better picture & more correct data as to the changes we know are occuring through migration & actual ground observations. It also helps to keep some ground observations triple checked as well (bad buoys & stations gone nuts). Like Dr Masters' sharing of the study where cherry picking ground observations not near developed areas & checking their long term trend still shows overall warming. That is yet another way to show urban heat effect isn't the smoking gun here. I've been amazed by the number that quickly skimmed maybe part of the blog entry & started screaming but the urban heat island effect is real!


Thanks Sky! I was just giving the good Sheperd a pat on the back for a good job of sometimes difficult and complicated reading that he did well at comprehending. Good job Shep!
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935. Skyepony (Mod)
TS The tremenous knowledge comes from the link I left~ if you read the whole thing from start to finish & not just the finish as Shep posted it all is a little clearer..

I think some people pretend the satellites don't exist when it comes to learning about our climate & a few seem resistant to even learn about them (TS I'm not refuring to you). Clouds especially can be a problem in the older ones & evey effort is made to account for that~ using other data when clouds are present before arciving. Comparing satellite data gives us a much better picture & more correct data as to the changes we know are occuring through migration & actual ground observations. It also helps to keep some ground observations triple checked as well (bad buoys & stations gone nuts). Like Dr Masters' sharing of the study where satellites were used for cherry picking ground observations not near developed areas & checking their long term trend still shows overall warming. That is yet another way to show urban heat effect isn't the smoking gun here. I've been amazed by the number that quickly skimmed maybe part of the blog entry & started screaming but the urban heat island effect is real!
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Severe Weather Coming and Starting up.....Problems coming.!!!


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SVR T-STORM WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 307 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 204 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 300 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009
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932. Skyepony (Mod)
thesheperd~ I think they are pretty clear here. They are in it for the long haul, what has been the trend since they have been able to measure it. If the newer satalite shows they were always 2500km off (looking at the graph it's probibly way closer of a difference then my example & more like minute differences occuring when ice 1st changes it's rate of increase or decrease) when you switch to a new satellite that may make a jump one way or other in the data. It makes for rough research too. All the years back will have to be adjusted for. That raised more questions of accuracy and an added chance of error in the conversions of all those years datas. Either way~ useing the old satellite brings excellent consistancy, that tiny error has nothing to do with long term trend. Ships did sail through the NW passage the last 2 years. The only problem is what happens when the old satellite sensor dies... we may see them close the book & start again with the begining of the new satellite & overlay the graphs of both when they both measured.

This also looks to answer the question of do they only triple check the data when it looks way off...Daily..yes but it all is heavily checked before arciving.

The way it dopped on the 16th (I posted a link to the saved version in this thread somewhere)..I can only imagine some of the emails they got. Glad that was an error..
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Quoting theshepherd:
Some people might ask why we don't simply switch to the EOS AMSR-E sensor. AMSR-E is a newer and more accurate passive microwave sensor. However, we do not use AMSR-E data in our analysis because it is not consistent with our historical data. Thus, while AMSR-E gives us greater accuracy and more confidence on current sea ice conditions, it actually provides less accuracy on the long-term changes over the past thirty years. There is a balance between being as accurate as possible at any given moment and being as consistent as possible through long time periods. Our main scientific focus is on the long-term changes in Arctic sea ice. With that in mind, we have chosen to continue using the SSM/I sensor, which provides the longest record of Arctic sea ice extent.
...............................................
Skye
Please elaborate...


Shepherd i am very impressed! That is some tremdous knowledge. EXCELLENT..keep up the great work!
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Some people might ask why we don't simply switch to the EOS AMSR-E sensor. AMSR-E is a newer and more accurate passive microwave sensor. However, we do not use AMSR-E data in our analysis because it is not consistent with our historical data. Thus, while AMSR-E gives us greater accuracy and more confidence on current sea ice conditions, it actually provides less accuracy on the long-term changes over the past thirty years. There is a balance between being as accurate as possible at any given moment and being as consistent as possible through long time periods. Our main scientific focus is on the long-term changes in Arctic sea ice. With that in mind, we have chosen to continue using the SSM/I sensor, which provides the longest record of Arctic sea ice extent.
...............................................
Skye
Please elaborate...
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Quoting surfmom:


we are a TinderBox --- YoungBuck TRIED to fish in Myakka River this past Saturday....... he says it's pitiful -- drought has the water levels soo low -- said he could walk out into the lakes the furthest he can remember. Going to have some very cranky gators during mating season -- they're all going to be looking for water.



...well....I completely undersand....

I get pretty cranky during mating season myself....
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Quoting Skyepony:
link to the sea ice thing.


For everyone:
The way they can tell is by comparing to another satellite method of determining sea ice extent.


Caption: "Daily total Arctic sea ice extent between 1 December 2008 and 12 February 2009 for Special Sensor Microwave/Imager SSM/I compared to the similar NASA Earth Observing System Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (EOS AMSR-E) sensor."

With SSM/I being the method employed there.
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927. Skyepony (Mod)
link to the sea ice thing.
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926. Skyepony (Mod)
As some of our readers have already noticed, there was a significant problem with the daily sea ice data images on February 16. The problem arose from a malfunction of the satellite sensor we use for our daily sea ice products. Upon further investigation, we discovered that starting around early January, an error known as sensor drift caused a slowly growing underestimation of Arctic sea ice extent. The underestimation reached approximately 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) by mid-February. Sensor drift, although infrequent, does occasionally occur and it is one of the things that we account for during quality control measures prior to archiving the data. See below for more details.

We have removed the most recent data and are investigating alternative data sources that will provide correct results. It is not clear when we will have data back online, but we are working to resolve the issue as quickly as possible
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905. biff4ugo 11:11 AM EST on February 18, 2009
could someone pleas also comment on the effects of urbanization
...............................................
"No Stewardship"

Impact fees are pathetic.
Urban planning is pathetic.
Real Estate Lobby is crimminal.
Sugar Industry belongs in Brazil.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Gotta go but, i bet you bring a cold front with ya.....LOL!!


LOL,see ya Tampa,your probably right.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Heading to Tampa on the 9th I expect all cold fronts to cease by that time.


Gotta go but, i bet you bring a cold front with ya.....LOL!!
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BBL to work on my Update....BE SAFE and turn you Weather Radios on or go to my blog!!
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Heading to Tampa on the 9th I expect all cold fronts to cease by that time.
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The Dry slot on Water Vapor looks very dangerous this afternoon.....that will fill in with Major Thunderstorms this evening....

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AND CNTRL MS INTO NWRN AND W-CNTRL
AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181714Z - 181845Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.


LATEST TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING
CUMULUS BANDS ORIENTED WSW-ENE WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM W
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO CNTRL MS. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT OVERLY MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S/...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MLCAPE OF
AROUND 500 J/KG. OF CONCERN TO STORM INITIATION ARE: 1/ WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT...AND 2/ INFERRED MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE
AND RESULTING POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS. THUS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S OF ONGOING STORMS OVER S-CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE
TN.

ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE PRESENCE OF 60-70 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT /SOME SPLITTING/ WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Photobucket

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
LARGE PART OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
KENTUCKY TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN KY/TN. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUPERCELL AS THEY MOVE VERY RAPIDLY EWD. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA.
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Quoting geepy86:
I'm no weather expert. but back in the 70's and 80's we could set our clock by the afternoon rains. Remember they saying about buying swamp land in florida. Now there is hardly any left.


we are a TinderBox --- YoungBuck TRIED to fish in Myakka River this past Saturday....... he says it's pitiful -- drought has the water levels soo low -- said he could walk out into the lakes the furthest he can remember. Going to have some very cranky gators during mating season -- they're all going to be looking for water.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Surfmom get the board your going to have a strong wind out of the South West today with temps in the 70's ,,,,,,wow. Tomorrow it all changes but, enjoy today if your a surfer. PERFECT conditions.

BINGO -- getting the office seatwork done (arrrvy) then quick domestics......(Hiss) and then a rendez vous w/King Neptune -- COLD FRONT WAVES w/out the chill -- Zephyr Wind is Cranking right now (Southwind) and we get on just fine.... his brother El Norte' will probably show tomorrow and we don't get along.
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Quoting geepy86:
I'm no weather expert. but back in the 70's and 80's we could set our clock by the afternoon rains. Remember they saying about buying swamp land in florida. Now there is hardly any left.


No question the heating of the day over wetlands would create a hot moist air mass to raise and cause left to help create thunderstorms but, we really have not had much in the way of tropical systems either is all i'm pointing out. We need Tropical systems as bad as that sounds.
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I updated my Weather Blog yesterday and will do another this afternoon....but, all my Warnings and Watch Graphic and my analysis from yesterday is still very currnet and all the Graphics stay current.

TampaSpin's Weather Blog Link
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Biff i believe Florida's rainfall defict has purly been from a lack of Tropical Systems crossing the State or just bringing Rain. If one understands how rain falls in the summers thunderstorm season it's purly a collision of the afternoon or morning seabreezes.
I'm no weather expert. but back in the 70's and 80's we could set our clock by the afternoon rains. Remember they saying about buying swamp land in florida. Now there is hardly any left.
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PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES
OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI


ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU REGION SWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND ARE TRANSPORTING AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN
VALLEY TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW
ECHO STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE
THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.


THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.


..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
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Just read the dialogue from last night and as always am impressed by what goes on after the night falls. Pangean seems to have mistaken good natured (and charity oriented for Portlight) fun for something else. Had to laugh that Presslord let the joke go on. Surfmom, good to see you thinking 60 degree water is surfing time. I did some diving off Catalina in 59 degree water - couldn't even breathe it was so cold (and in full wet suit.) I'm in Missouri and it's cold and the wind is blowing so hard I think you could surf on the Missouri river quite well - just be careful about the chunks of ice. As always, this is an engaging and worthwhile blog.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
could someone pleas also comment on the effects of urbanization and heat island effects on precipitation patterns. Floridas average rainfall has been dropping. this goes with draining of wetlands, increased ubanization and impervious surface, and population growth. Are there any causative lines to be drawn? Florida has grown significantly more urbanized, and my common sense tells me that less water on the landscape means less water in the air and changes in precipitation paterns. Florida has many non-frontal storms that drop considerable rain seasonally.


Biff i believe Florida's rainfall defict has purly been from a lack of Tropical Systems crossing the State or just bringing Rain. If one understands how rain falls in the summers thunderstorm season it's purly a collision of the afternoon or morning seabreezes.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
908. GBlet
Good morning! I think we need to be more adaptable instead of trying to change our surroundings to suit us. We will cause our own demise...
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Latest Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

Photobucket

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Biff...water attracts more water. The more we have drained the FL wetland areas along with urbanization we have experienced worse and longer dry seasons. Less moisture.

I don't know if there's a way to statistically figure that or chart it.

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could someone pleas also comment on the effects of urbanization and heat island effects on precipitation patterns. Floridas average rainfall has been dropping. this goes with draining of wetlands, increased ubanization and impervious surface, and population growth. Are there any causative lines to be drawn? Florida has grown significantly more urbanized, and my common sense tells me that less water on the landscape means less water in the air and changes in precipitation paterns. Florida has many non-frontal storms that drop considerable rain seasonally.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


VALID 181553Z - 181730Z

THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A WW.


VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN SHORT WSW-ENE ORIENTED BANDS OVER WRN KY
INTO NWRN TN AS OF 1540Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF FAIRLY RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING/MOISTENING PER 3-HR CHANGE FIELDS. MOREOVER...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A BAND OF
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH IL/IND.

BASED ON 12Z LIT SOUNDING...ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY UNCAPPED WITH
MLCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KT/ WITH GENERALLY
LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE
CYCLONIC UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE EXPANDED FARTHER
NWD IN KY AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.


..MEAD.. 02/18/2009

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102 Days till the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season
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LOok out Fisherman and boaters.....this is one strong System....WOW!



If this was in August this would be a Cat 3
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting TampaSpin:


Nope 1 more coming late next week sorry! In my opinion.....at least thats what the Magic 8 ball says....LOL
I like the Magic Ball - keep 'um coming! :)
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT!!!

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting conchygirl:
So Tampa, do ya think this will be our last big cold front of the season as some of the weather guys are saying?


Nope 1 more coming late next week sorry! In my opinion.....at least thats what the Magic 8 ball says....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting TampaSpin:
Surfmom get the board your going to have a strong wind out of the South West today with temps in the 70's ,,,,,,wow. Tomorrow it all changes but, enjoy today if your a surfer. PERFECT conditions.
So Tampa, do ya think this will be our last big cold front of the season as some of the weather guys are saying?
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
Surfmom get the board your going to have a strong wind out of the South West today with temps in the 70's ,,,,,,wow. Tomorrow it all changes but, enjoy today if your a surfer. PERFECT conditions.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
As per the latest update...the SPC has greatly expanded the Moderate Risk area:



Photobucket



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...GA
AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM LA INTO PARTS OF TN...GA...NRN FL AND THE S ATLANTIC CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CNTRL AND SE U.S. TODAY/
TONIGHT...ON SRN FRINGE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING SE ACROSS
THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY. S OF THE TROUGH...EXISTING SRN BRANCH
JET...NOW EXTENDING FROM NM TO AR...WILL DEVELOP ESEWD. THIS WILL
ENHANCE MID LVL FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES TODAY...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK NE
TO NEAR LK HURON THIS EVE AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CONSOLIDATES AND
ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE OH...TN...AND LWR MS VLYS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LATEST HAND AND STREAMLINE ANALYSES SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A
CONFLUENCE ZONE ATTM EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEM SW TO NEAR SHV.
SATELLITE PW AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE MAY MARK WRN
LIMIT OF POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS WINDS APPEARED TO HAVE
VEERED BEHIND IT...AND DRYING IS OCCURRING TO ITS W.

...TN VLY TO CNTRL GULF CST/GA/N FL...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND CONFLUENCE ZONE.

LATEST SATELLITE PW DISPLAY SHOWS PW AXIS WITH VALUES AOA 1 INCH
EXTENDING FROM SE TX AND LA NE INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS MOISTURE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES
TODAY AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL OVER REGION ON SRN FRINGE OF AMPLIFYING
TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STORMS...SEVERAL FACTORS ARGUE AGAINST MORE THAN ISOLD ACTIVITY IN
THE SLGT AND MDT RISK AREAS UNTIL PERHAPS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. FIRST /1/ MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL FCSTS SHOW THAT MID LVL
LAPSE RATES ARE AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODESTLY STEEP...WITH A
WARM NOSE AROUND 750 MB. IN ADDITION.../2/ CLOUDS WITH S-DRIFTING
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE
DAY NEAR THE GULF CST. THIRD /3/ DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK AS UPLIFT LIKELY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF SRN
STREAM JET...I.E. OVER THE OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TN
VLY...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LVL CONFLUENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME NEGATIVE FACTORS AND SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCTD STORMS
ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER PARTS OF LA...MS AND AL. A SEPARATE AREA
OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD STORMS ALSO MAY FORM ALONG COLD FRONT IN
TN/KY.

GIVEN INTENSITY AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN DEEP WSWLY FLOW /SPEEDS AOA
70 KTS AT 500 MB/...EXPECT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM WILL
QUICKLY BECOME SVR SUPERCELLS. DESPITE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...LENGTH OF HODOGRAPHS /60-70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR/ COULD YIELD
ISOLD STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH
WIND.

ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH UPON
ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE
SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...THOSE THAT FORM ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE BAND COULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVE AS /1/ MORE
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION AND /2/ LOW LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD MOVE/DEVELOP E ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA AND N FL GIVEN
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.

..CORFIDI.. 02/18/2009



(More details available on my blog)


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Quoting vortfix:
Good morning Surfmom!
It's gonna get cold...one more time:



Photobucket

Photobucket



Snow?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting vortfix:
Vortix "Good morning Surfmom!
It's gonna get cold...one more time:"

PROMISE?



Duhh...at least one more time?
ROFL

Who knows?
The way this winter has been going we could be dealing with cold weather well into March!
ARGH


Brrrrr & grrrrr............... I can hear my Mango trees wailing in agony.....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Vortix "Good morning Surfmom!
It's gonna get cold...one more time:"

PROMISE?



Duhh...at least one more time?
ROFL

Who knows?
The way this winter has been going we could be dealing with cold weather well into March!
ARGH

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#889....That's a photo of ice in Hawaii??

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Vortix "Good morning Surfmom!
It's gonna get cold...one more time:"

PROMISE?
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Quoting hurricane23:


As i stated above some of the NCEP models i viewed earlier today are actually showing a fully developed NINO come this cane season.

Andrew came during a NINO year.


Nino would be most wonderful. Not sure if it will happen this year (They said the same thing last year, with ENSO you've gotta take these things with a pinch of salt), but it's gotta happen sometime.
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Maine is not the only state that has been hit with cold weather. In Hawaii has been two days of below 65 degree weather (63 degrees at 3:00 am).
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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