Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Australia's Hell on Earth fires claim 200 lives

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on February 09, 2009

Unprecedented heat, high winds, and years of record drought fanned weekend fires that claimed at least 200 lives in Australia's southeastern state of Victoria. It was Australia's deadliest natural disaster ever. The fires burnt 1200 square miles, an area 80% the size of Rhode Island. "Out there it has been hell on earth", Victorian Premier John Brumby said Saturday in a televised address. It is difficult to imagine more hellish fire conditions than those observed in Victoria state's capital, Melbourne, on Saturday (February 7). The temperature soared to 115.5°F (46.4°C), the hottest ever recorded in the city, besting the previous record of 114°F (45.6°C) set on January 13, 1939. Humidities as low as 4% and sustained north winds that reached 43 mph, gusting to 51 mph, accompanied the furnace-like heat. The dry winds were easily able to fan fires in the parched vegetation. Severe drought conditions reign in Southeast Australia, where some regions--including the city of Melbourne--have experienced their worst drought on record over the past eight years.

The previous worst-ever Australian fires were the 1939 Black Friday fires, which burned an area nearly four times the size of Rhode Island (5800 square miles), killing 71 people, and the February 1983 Ash Wednesday fires, which killed 75 people and burned 1800 square miles.

Figure 1. This image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite shows multiple large fires (outlined in red) burning in Southeast Australia's Victoria state on February 7. Huge plumes of smoke spread southeast, driven by fierce winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

World's hottest temperature so far south
The heat wave over Southeast Australia began on January 27. A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea, combined with an intense tropical low off the northwest coast of Western Australia and an active monsoon, provided ideal conditions for hot, tropical air to move over the southern parts of Australia. The most exceptional heat in January occurred in northern and eastern Tasmania. The previous state record of 105°F (40.8°C), set at Hobart on 4 January 1976, was broken on 29 January when it reached 107°F (41.5°C) at Flinders Island Airport. This record only lasted one day, as Scamander, on the east coast, reached 108°F (42.2°C) on the 30th. Four other sites broke the previous Tasmanian record that day. Nearly half of the island of Tasmania had its hottest day on record on January 30, with many records broken by large margins, particularly in the north. Launceston Airport (39.9°C) broke its previous record by 2.6 degrees°C. This is the second-largest margin by which a record high maximum has been broken at any of the 103 locations in the long-term high-quality Australian temperature data set. The January 2009 event has now been responsible for seven of the eight highest temperatures on record in Tasmania.

After a slight drop in temperatures the first few days of February, extreme heat moved back into Southeast Australia on February 6-7. The hottest temperature ever recorded in Victoria state was measured at Hopetoun, in the northwest, which hit 120°F (48.8°C) on February 7. This bested the old record of 117°F (47.2°C) set at Mildura in January 1939. The new record at Hopetoun is also the hottest temperature in the world so far south. Most of Victoria recorded its hottest day on record on February 7, and fourteen stations exceeded the previous state record temperature.

The January-February 2009 heat wave has also been unusually long lasting. Both Adelaide and Melbourne set records for the most consecutive days above 43°C. Adelaide's temperatures were at this level on each of the four days 27-30 January, and Melbourne's for three days from 28-30 January, breaking the previous records of two at both locations.

Spectacular nocturnal heat burst
On the morning of January 29, an exceptional nocturnal heat event occurred in the northern suburbs of Adelaide around 3 a.m. Strong northwesterly winds mixed hot air aloft to the surface. At RAAF Edinburgh, the temperature rose to 107°F (41.7°C) at 3:04 am. Such an event appears to be without known precedent in southern Australia.

Figure 2. Maximum temperature anomalies for February 7, 2009. Most of the southeast Australia state of Victoria experienced the highest temperatures ever recorded, with temperatures up to 32°F (18°C) above average. The cooler temperatures in northeastern Australia are due to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Ellie and persistent monsoon rains. Image credit: "The exceptional January-February 2009 heat wave in south-eastern Australia, Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology.

Climate Change and Australia
As to whether this heat wave is due to climate change, Mr. Perry Wiles, senior climatologist with the NSW office of the Bureau of Meteorology said, "Climate change is not only increasing average temperatures, but also the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events. While any one event cannot be attributed to climate change, this heat wave is certainly consistent with that expectation. In a warming world we can expect similar extreme events more often."

Average annual temperatures have increased by about 1.3°F (0.75°C) in Australia over the past century, which is also the what the global average increase in temperature has been. According the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, average temperatures in Australia are expected to rise by about 4.7°F (2.6°C) by the year 2100. Droughts are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the southeastern regions affected by this weekend's fires (Figure 3), though other portions of Australia are expected to see increases in rainfall. These sorts of regional precipitation predictions are in their infancy, and we currently have low confidence in them. However, continued increases in summertime temperatures are likely to bring more frequent heat waves like this weekend's to Southeast Australia over the coming century.

Figure 3. Average temperature and precipitation changes over Australia and New Zealand from the 21 climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate change report (A1B scenario). Annual mean and summertime (December-January-February) changes are plotted for the period 1980-1999 vs. 2080-2099. Image credit: 2007 IPCC report, section 11, "Regional Climate projections".

For more information
"The exceptional January-February 2009 heat wave in south-eastern Australia", Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology.

Jeff Masters

BUSHFIRES IN VICTORIA AUSTRALIA ON WHAT IS BEING CALLED (ozcazz)

Our State of Victoria is under siege by bushfires over so many areas temperatures are still in the high 40C. Tragedy is everywhere soo many lives lost over 65 dead... over 600 homes gone whole towns we are not too far from where the devastation is. I cannot believe that a town I worked in has been completley wiped out not one house standing. It is a very sad day here this weekend. And it is not over yet as the temperatures are still high more north winds have been forecasted and lightning. As our Prime Minster said it is

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301. MissNadia 2:26 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
300 Hi Shep...my take on it is that the new growth USES the water before it runs off! Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2674

302. MissNadia 2:31 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
New Blog! Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2674

303. KEHCharleston 2:34 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
Quoting Skyepony: Got the rest of the world weather news updated on my blog. I do want to drop one more here. It's not a news outlet but the disturbing part is this isn't all over the media. I've been catching bits & pieces of it here & there.. China's drought the other day had 4.4 mill with no drinking water & huge crop losses~ more than 50%..no word there today.. Calif didn't plant 60% of their crops. I've seen one disturbing article out of TX.. Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Africa, middle east, Asia~ all devistating drought. At least a 20-40% drop in global food this year. Anyway great year for a garden. I'll be getting into my planting plans in there as well. Catastrophic drop expected in 2009 global food production Countries that make up two thirds of the world's agricultural output are experiencing drought conditions. Thanks for the heads up. This is the year to work for plentiful garden. I do not have a yard, but my sister has about 3/4 acre. Will call her about combing efforts to increase production. Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490

304. TampaSpin 2:36 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION... ...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY... A 100-120 KT MID LEVEL JET AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD FROM NE TX THIS MORNING TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS INTENSE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL CONSOLIDATE THIS MORNING OVER SE MO/SRN IL AND MOVE NEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP EWD TO THE S OF THE LOW TRACK. THE WIDTH AND QUALITY OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND NWD/EWD EXTENT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRAVERSE THE TN/OH VALLEYS TODAY /N OF THE RICHER MOISTURE/. DESPITE THE LESS FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR MOISTURE AND ONLY MODEST SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TODAY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH A NARROW FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS KY/TN AND EVENTUALLY INTO OH. THE INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE LINKED TO A PLUME OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE W/SW...AS A RESULT OF NEAR STEADY SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHARP COOLING AROUND 700 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TRANSPORTING THE HIGH MOMENTUM /60-70 KT/ LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE GROUND WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE FORCED LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...THOUGH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AT LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY. LATER TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE E OF THE APPALACHIANS. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET. FARTHER S TOWARD THE GULF COAST...FLOW FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWS. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE S OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE TALL/NARROW. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN MS/AL AREA...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

305. TampaSpin 2:40 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
Quoting KEHCharleston: Thanks for the heads up. This is the year to work for plentiful garden. I do not have a yard, but my sister has about 3/4 acre. Will call her about combing efforts to increase production. Thats the only way.....Family owns 200 acre farm and we raise to eat everything...soy beans to feed the live stock.....sweet corn, and all the vegetables one can imagine....it is a total family effort and what we can't use ourselves we supply the neighbors...... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

306. theshepherd 2:42 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
301 Thanx Nad...I figured that was the logic. Just can't fathom how a few young plants can hold more water than a mature tree with existing plants within it's drip line. Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8226

307. TampaSpin 2:44 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
My father grew strawberries and raspberries in Indiana and made the best dam wine you would ever drink if you could remember......still got jugs of it in a celler up there.......LOL Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

308. MissNadia 2:45 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
New blog by the way!! Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2674

309. TampaSpin 2:48 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
This is the current outlook for Tornados from the National Weather Service......give these guys props...they hit the rough weather yesterday.....nearly 2 days in advance.... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

310. AussieStorm 2:55 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
Quoting theshepherd: Thanks Aussie. I understand about the unobstructed flows in present condition, but I'm curious how new growth can hold back more water than a mature forrest. When the new growth begins and continues till the trees are back to being mature... it will use more water and wont let much through into the catchment. That's my take on it anyways. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

311. hydrus 4:16 PM GMT on February 11, 2009
TAMPA SPIN-I have got to tell you ,I would pay top dollar for that wine your talking about.Question,that tornado outlook you posted does not seem right,the squall line is in TN right now. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

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