Is the globe cooling?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on February 04, 2009

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Recently, one has been hearing statements in the media like, the "twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming" and the Earth has been cooling since 1998. Let's take a look at the validity of these statements. The warmest year on record, according to both NASA and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), was 2005. However, 1998 was virtually tied with 2005 for warmth, and the United Kingdom Hadley Center and Climatic Research Unit data set (HadCRU) rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The three data sets use different methods, such as how they interpolate over missing data regions over the Arctic Ocean, and so they arrive at slightly different numbers for the the global average temperature. All three data sets are considered equally valid, so ignoring two of the three major data sets to claim that the globe has been cooling since 1998 is "cherry picking" the data to show the result you want.

Furthermore, 1997-1998 El Niño event was the second strongest of the past century. El Niño events directly warm a large part of the Pacific, and indirectly warm (via a large increase in water vapor), an even larger region. This extra warming--estimated to have boosted the global temperature an extra 0.1-0.2°C--made 1998's warmth spike sharply upwards from the globe's usual temperature. The climate is best measured by a multi-year average of global temperatures, in order to remove shorter-term oscillations in weather patterns like El Niño. It is not scientifically valid to base a cooling argument on a year that spiked sharply upwards from the norm because of one the largest El Niño events in recorded history. A valid way to measure whether the globe is warming or cooling is to use the average global temperature for the past ten years or longer. The 1999-2008 period was significantly warmer (by 0.18°C, according to NOAA) than the previous ten year period, despite the fact the record (or near-record) warmest year 1998 was part of this previous period. Thus, it is scientifically correct to say the globe has been warming since 1998, not cooling. This warming rate has been about 0.16°C per decade over the past thirty years. Note that even over time periods as long as eight years, the average global temperature is not always a good measure of the long-term global warming trend--particularly if a large volcanic eruption in the tropics occurs.

How often should we expect to see a new global temperature record?
The climate should warm at a rate of about 0.19°C (0.34°F) per decade, according to the computer climate models used to formulate the "official word" on climate, the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thus, we should expect to see frequent "warmest years on record". However, 2006, 2007, and 2008 were all cooler than 2005, and 2008 was merely the ninth warmest year on record. We know that the weather has a high degree of natural variability, with warmer than average years mixed in with cooler ones. How often, then, should we expect to set a new global temperature record if the climate is warming in accordance with global warming theory?


Figure 1. Predicted and observed global annual average temperatures between 1990-2008. The thin colored lines represent 55 individual runs of the twenty computer climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report. These runs were done for the A1B "business as usual" scenario, which most closely matches recent emissions. The thick black line is the multi-model mean, and the thick colored lines with symbols denote actual observations, as computed by the three major research groups that estimate annual global temperatures. The sharp down spike in 1991-1992 is due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, which cooled the Earth for two years. You can make these type of plots yourself, using the publicly available PCMDI IPCC AR4 archive. Image credit: Dr. Gavin Schmidt, realclimate.org.

The twenty models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (Figure 1) all predict the climate will warm, but with a lot of year-to-year variability due to natural weather patterns such as El Niño. Some of the IPCC models forecast periods lasting many years (in the extreme case, twenty years) with no global warming, due to natural climate and weather oscillations. If one plots up the cumulative distribution of these IPCC model runs to see how often a global average temperature record should be broken (Figure 2), one sees that the models predict a 50% chance that we'll unambiguously break the record every six years. By an unambiguous record, I mean a record that exceeds the previous one by at least 0.1°C. We've now gone ten years without unambiguously breaking the global temperature record, which the models say should happen 25% of the time. There is a 5% chance we'll go eighteen years without unambiguously breaking the record, so it is quite possible for natural variability in the climate system to obscure the global warming signal for periods of nearly twenty years. If we still haven't had a new global temperature record by 2018, then it is time to question global warming theory. If the theory is correct, there is a good chance that we will break the global temperature record during the next year that has a moderate or stonger El Niño event (and no major volcanic eruption in the tropics, since such major eruptions can dramatically cool the climate). Since we have La Niña conditions to start 2009, it is unlikely this year will break the record.


Figure 2. Cumulative distribution of how long one would have to wait for a new global temperature record to be set between the years 1990 and 2030. Image is based on the twenty climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report, using the A1B "business as usual" scenario. The curves should be read as the percentage chance of seeing a new record (Y axis) if you waited the number of years on the X axis. The two curves are for a new record of any size (black) and for an unambiguous record (> 0.1°C above the previous record, red). The 95% confidence line is marked in gray. The main result is that 95% of the time, a new record will be seen within 8 years, but that for an unambiguous record, you need to wait for 18 years to have similar confidence. Image credit: Realclimate.org.

Is global warming slowing down?
The global average temperature has declined over the past three years (Figure 1) and global average sea surface temperature (SST) has not increased over the past seven years (Figure 3). Is global warming slowing down, then, and taking a break? That was the theory advanced by a group of German climate modelers (Keenlyside et al., 2008) in the journal Nature in 2008. Using a climate model that offered a unique way to handle the initial distribution of SSTs, they concluded that over the next ten years, natural variations in the climate may temporarily mask the global warming due to greenhouse gases. They stated: "North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming". However, they go on to state that greenhouse-gas driven global warming will resume full-force after the ten-year break is over. Other climate modelers disagree with this predicted "break" in global warming. Both theories are reasonable ones, and it is possible that the recent cool years portend the ten-year "break" from global warming hypothesized by Keenlyside et al. It is too early to tell, since the relative coolness of the past few years could easily be natural "noise" (weather) imposed on the long-term global warming trend. The fact that we've had a cold winter in eastern North America and in the UK--or any other anecdotal cold or snow-related record you may hear about--can't tell us whether global warming may be slowing down or not. The amount of global warming over the past century has only been about 1.3°F (0.74°C). Thus, it should not surprise us, for example, if temperatures during tonight's hard freeze in Florida bottom out at 25°F, instead of the 24°F it would have reached 100 years ago. The long-term ten and thirty year trends in global temperature are solidly upwards in accordance with global warming theory, and claims that the globe is cooling cannot be scientifically defended.


Figure 3. Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1990-2008. SSTs have not increased in the past seven years. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

References
Keenlyside, N.S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008, "Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector", Nature 453, No. 7191, pp. 84-88, May 1, 2008

Further reading
2008 temperature summaries and spin by Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org.

My next post will be on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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703. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

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702. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin
===============================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Freddy, Category One (989 hPa) located at 16.1S 113.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0

Gale-Force Winds
=================
45 NM of the center in eastern quadrants extending to within 120 NM of the center in western quadrants.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.1S 112.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.2S 110.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.1S 105.8E - 40 knote (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.9S 101.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================
Tropical Cyclone Freddy has formed well to the north of the Western Australian mainland.

Latest fix based on visible satellite data. The cyclone is being disrupted by increased westerly shear, with LLCC now well exposed. Dvorak DT of 2.5 based on 0.75 degree separation of LLCC from deep convection, with reasonably well organized low level cloud lines. MET/PT = 2.5, but holding CI at 3.0. Recent movement has slowed, as progression of the low level circulation is being hindered by the ridge to the southwest.

Freddy is expected to intensify slowly in the more diurnally favourable conditions overnight, and should continue to move to the west during the next 48 hours under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. In the longer term Freddy is likely to take a more southwest track as a weakness develops in the ridge with a mid level trough approaching from the west. After the next 24 hours, Freddy should begin to weaken as the cyclone moves over cooler sea surface temperatures.
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701. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWENTY-TWO
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GAEL (08-20082009)
10:00 AM Réunion February 7 2009
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Gael (934 hPa) located at 20.0S 51.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Hurricane-Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius of the center extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Gale-Force Winds
==================
100 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
======================
190 NM radius from the center, extending up to 220 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.2S 52.1E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 22.5S 52.5E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 26.8S 54.5E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 30.5S 57.6E - 60 knots (DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
=======================
Gael takes benefit of a good trade low level inflow thanks to the subtropical high pressures in its southwest. Equatorward monsoon flow is limited westward cutted by Malagasy and microwave imagery (AMSU 0044z and 0135z, SSMIS 0157z) reveals a eroded eyewall in the western part However, upper level environment is becoming very favorable with a good poleward outflow within the next 12 hours with an interaction with the northwesterly subtropical jet located south of Madagascar. Peak intensity should be reached within the next hours before heading into cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger northwesterly vertical winds starting Sunday night.

It drifts on a globally southward track with slow motion. It is expected to speed up south-southeast in a less and less favorable environment and to weaken before transitioning into a extratropical system.


NOTE : ACTUAL MOVE 180/08KT (5KT MENTIONNED IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS ADVISORY IS AN AVERAGE FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS)=
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its defidently acting up...
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something is happening........NOW

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Projected Plum if the plum hits 10000ft which is considered average.......

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Emergency services on alert for Sydney's heat peak
Saturday February 7, 2009 - 13:01 EDT

The mercury is expected to peak in Sydney's west by mid-afternoon and health authorities are particularly concerned about the impact of the heat on the young and the elderly.

The Bureau of Meteorology's duty forecaster Elli Spark says it will be significantly cooler in the eastern suburbs than in the west, where temperatures of around 42 degrees Celsius are expected in Penrith.

Acting chief health officer Doctor Kerry Chant says emergency departments are ready for an influx of people suffering heat-related illnesses

"Our emergency departments are aware of the impact of heat and that they may see more presentations," she said.

Ambulance spokeswoman Penelope Little says ambulance crews are also prepared for a busy afternoon.


- ABC
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:55 am WDT on Saturday 7 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

Tropical Cyclone Freddy (Category 1) was located at 9 am WDT near 16.0S 113.2E,
that is 650 km northwest of Karratha and 670 km north of Exmouth and moving
west northwest at 6 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Freddy is located well off the northern WA coast and is
expected to continue to move westwards away from the WA mainland.
Gales are not expected to affect the WA coast.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 4 pm WDT.
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Quoting futuremet:
Wow, this is a beast of a storm


TC Freddy is on the right off the north west coast of Australia also
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
I know a little about Volcanos,
Since there is above-normal siesmic activity wouldn't that suggest magma is on the move?


I would think so......but im about as dumb as a fish on a dry bank...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
This blog is slow right now,
Where is Hurricane Season when you need it?
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I know a little about Volcanos,
Since there is above-normal siesmic activity wouldn't that suggest magma is on the move?
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Take a look at Iliamna Volcano also just to the SW of Redoubt and look at the recent activity of Redoubt and compare the two......seems they are linked up with the same Flow........
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting Orcasystems:
Are you watching this one Tim?


Yep and the other 2 also.........LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Are you watching this one Tim?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Hi Tim, we've been working on some caching servers to help displace the traffic we've been seeing. While we've been testing that, I turned off the auto-refresh on the webicorder pages. I'll turn it back on someday today. The webicorder color-code map is broken, I've been meaning to get rid of the color-codes completely on that map, just point out the volcanoes as triangles or something. Thanks for mentioning it! -Seth -------- Tim Richardson wrote: I have been watching Redoubt as your webicorders was refreshing automatically without me having to refresh my browser. Will this be fixed or is this to continue! Also you should update your color codes on your Webicorders Map as all are the same.....just an observation. P.S. I know you all are busy. Thanks for your updates and your support. -- Seth Snedigar Alaska Volcano Observatory Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys seth.snedigar@alaska.gov 907-451-5033 http://www.avo.alaska.edu/
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
I sent an email off to AVO and they responded very fast.....i asked them to turn on the auto update and they did it.....i was amazed....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its changing. but it looked like that a few weeks ago also.. so not sure whats going on


sortta but, look at post 670 graphic you can see it has a gradual incline in activity. Very strange...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting TampaSpin:
Orca take a look at the Seismic activity of Redoubt and tell me what you think......its pattern is changing...


Its changing. but it looked like that a few weeks ago also.. so not sure whats going on
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Orca take a look at the Seismic activity of Redoubt and tell me what you think......its pattern is changing...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
It looks like it is so close to Madagascar though Gale-Force Winds is only barely at the eastern coast of the country.


This tropical cyclone has rekindled my adrenaline; it feels like we are in hurricane season. lol

Equatoward and poleward outflow channels are well established. The lower level convergence continues to be more defined, as more air is being advected into the vort max due to the substantial pressure gradient. The SSts are very warm, thus giving Gael a chance to intensify to cat 5 intensity. Residents in Madagascar should continue to see an increase in rain as Gael propagates West-southwestward. Surface analysis indicates that the Gael is interacting with a surface cyclone near the west coast of Madagascar. Latest satellite imagery loop is already showing a blow up of convection near the NW coast.

Latest Satellite Loop


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I put BF & RTLSNK into the new weather station tranformarator, not really sure what went wrong??? Opps is all I can say ...

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
681. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST February 7 2009
==============================================

A Tropical Low [998 hPa] is situated over land, near the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, close to Normanton in Queensland.

The low is expected to drift slowly westwards over the next few days. It remains weak and is not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone during the next three days.
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I just noticed Gael and gale are anagrams
goodnight everyone lets see what happens overnight
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679. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
It looks like it is so close to Madagascar though Gale-Force Winds is only barely at the eastern coast of the country.
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Wow, this is a beast of a storm

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677. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
WOW you don't need glasses to read the Meteo France Bulletin (Large Text) or maybe it is my computer browser..
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676. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


So did the CMC (This is from 04FEB 1200z)

Didn't know how much of that intensity would be the transition to extratropical though..
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told you all it might become a five
it seems to early for the first 5
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Quoting stillwaiting:
doesn't look like we'd have to use tampa radar for anything,anyways for the next 5 days!!!!
you can't pick up sunshine on radar,lol...


10-4 that
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
doesn't look like we'd have to use tampa radar for anything,anyways for the next 5 days!!!!
you can't pick up sunshine on radar,lol...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting stillwaiting:




I wonder if thats why there was ALOT of seafoam at the beach lastnight?????(I live in Sarasota,which is right under the signature),I also wonder how much of that stuff me and surfmom are breathing in!!!!


That is correct the Airforce has been conducting exercises the last 2 days.......thats why radar is screwed up so bad.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting wxprof101:


Hey Gatorwx and Charlottefl!

What you saw on the radar last nite is called chaff. I just replied to somebody else about the same thing yesterday, but was way late because I am a new user.

Chaff is a radar countermeasure used by military aircraft to confuse enemy radars or radar-guided missiles. It consists of aluminum coated fiberglass released from the aircraft and reflects/scatters radar signals. This makes it show up on weather radars. It is often used here in Florida during training exercises, especially during clear weather. Here is a link to some notes Link I put together on the subject.

The following images show the chaff drifting southward. First the radar was in "precip. mode," then it switched to "clear-air mode" which also shows ground clutter more strongly. But you are right, the ground clutter signature is different from the chaff.




Hope this answers your question if you see it!




I wonder if thats why there was ALOT of seafoam at the beach lastnight?????(I live in Sarasota,which is right under the signature),I also wonder how much of that stuff me and surfmom are breathing in!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
ReDoubt is acting different as its trend is now different......don't know what it means but, its more active now......


Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-02-06 15:33:00

Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues.

Seismic activity remains elevated and has increased somewhat over the past couple of hours.
Nothing has been observed in clear web camera views today.

The volcano has not erupted.

AVO is monitoring the volcano 24/7.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
669. Skyepony (Mod)
Date/Time(UTC) of Initial Implementation:
5 February 2009, Time 0700 UTC


Details/Specifics of Change:
NOAA plans to update the TIROS Bulletin United States (TBUS) to reflect the following:
- Remove NOAA-12, TBUS08, and NOAA-14, TBUS02. Both satellites were decommissioned some time ago and are not needed
- Establish GOES-13 as the third GOES TBUS in the TBUS08 slot. This will be done effective with the daily TBUS update at 0700 UTC on 5 February 2009
- Establish NOAA-19 (N Prime) as TBUS02. This will be done once the spacecraft has been launched and established in orbit
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
PATRAP-Thank you.30 feet.....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
Im lucky to live there. I always wondered what this area looked like before It was densely populated. I heard The esplenade mall was thick pine forest in the 70s. Of Course I wouldn't know because im a teen.
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Chateau Estates nice Area..specially off Chateau Blvd .

I worked there in the mid 70's framing 4-plexes on Vooray Blvd.
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BTW I hate Kenner. There is lots of bad political leadership.Of course thats nothing new to Louisiana.
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My house is along the the Chateau Golf Course.

Your welcome.
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Kenner took plenty of water..

Kenner has come back..but still is hard pressed today in some neighborhoods.


Thanx for sharing your experience here.

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Quoting Patrap:
Such devastating scenes of ruin...it truly was.

Always humbling,..even Camille fades now,..

And we thought she was a Standard to be never matched.

We were so wrong.

Humbled...





I have seen 1st hand the devastation from Andrew and Charlie. It is the price some pay for proximity to the ocean. Nature has no preference or feelings. The folks who really pay are those who are close and have no power, water or amenities for a long time. I left my deep cycle battery, inverter and fan for a group of elderly folk (20) the day after Charlie and they could not have been more thankful. Devastation as shown was obviously someone who left or died and had beach front or close to it. The others had no choice. Think about that, no choice. That is the hard part.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Patrap,

As you know I live in Kenner,La and Katrina was no fun. We decided to stay for the monster. Here is my Account of what happened at my home in Kenner with my parents.

I woke up around 4am on th 28th of August and turned on TWC and when I saw Katrina's perfect storm look, at the time it was a Cat.4. So I had to get a better look of it so I went on the computer and I knew it was going to be bad here. By around 11am an overcast of Stratus clouds had set in and by 1230pm a lower cloud deck of faster moving clouds had moved in to the area.Soon after that we began to recieve periodical nasty squalls from the ESE and each one gave us tropical storm force gusts, each squall was prgressively stronger however. By 7pm a steady wind-driven rain had set in, heavy at times was going on.At the time I didn't have a weather station as I do now but I did have a rain guage. By around 9pm I had around 5-6 inches of rain. Overnight conditions continued to go downhill. By around midnight a stiff, stong, gusty Gale was occuring.Some of the super cells embeded in the CDO and wre moving quite fast. By 1am we had standing water on my street and we had had 9 inches of rain. By around 4am winds we Hurricne force easily and the water was approaching my front door and my rain guage was overflowing(Goes only to 12 inches)and my dad had to park both cars inbetween our haouse and our neighbors. Soon around 530am we finally lost power. I remember exactly when the water entered my house which was 617am. The winds were incredible. I would estimate the winds were gusting around 130mph out of the NW in the climax of the Hurricane. Around 1030am the winds and rain begain to subside, however a rather strong gale continued till the evening. Even though the rain had stopped the water still was rising some and we thought the levees may had failed but the water began to drop the next morning which revealed how much debreis was on the ground in which there was an astronomical amount of it.My house lost about half of its shingles and we had about 21 inches of water intruded the house.Of course we couldn't leave because of the water so we had to wait till wednesday before we could leave. Durring those two days we slept in the car which provided the best thing, Air conditioning.We couldnt even stay in the house for too long because it stank from the water and mold forming so we had to remove most of the furniture durring that period of time. We got out of Kenner on Wednesdday and arrived at my aunts house in Lakewood,Co on Friday.I stayed and lived in Lakewood for 2 months while my parents only stayed for a week.I never wanted to leave there because it was so beautiful.I got back in Kenner around Holloween. My dad is good friends with a contracter so we never had to get a fema trailer.

That my story of what happened to me durring Hurricane Katrina.
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Such devastating scenes of ruin...it truly was.

Always humbling,..even Camille fades now,..

And we thought she was a Standard to be never matched.

We were so wrong.

Humbled...



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Quoting Patrap:
Katrina's Surge
Wunderblogger Margie Kieper put together an incredibly detailed account of Hurricane Katrina's storm surge that she ran in her blog during the summer of 2006. The contents are reproduced here, and consist of an introduction explaining why the surge was so large, and 16 parts exploring the damage done to each stretch of the Gulf Coast ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Link

Katrina's Surge, Part 8 Link

For the remainder of the month, were traveling the coastline destroyed by Hurricane Katrina's record storm surge. This is something that has never been shown on the news or talked about, either in the overall, or in detail. What you'll be seeing here is what people on the Gulf Coast have been calling the Invisible Coastline for almost a year now.

Today we'll continue our coverage of western Hancock County, MS, where the coastal communities of Ansley, Lakeshore, Clermont Harbor, and Waveland were completely destroyed by surge. This will also mark the halfway point in this series.

Wow..That brings back some horrible memories looking at that Pat. I have intentionally stayed away from sites showing pics of Bay St Louis. A day I wont soon forget. And the amount of stupidity I displayed by staying after being warned to leave. I lived less then 2 blocks from the beach. Mother nature taught me a valuable lesson that day.
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658. Skyepony (Mod)
Levi~ it was Dvorak. After seeing the MIMIC I posted at the same time, I really didn't think it was terribly wrong. It was raging pretty good & then hit the ridge like a wall, even bounced north a frame, weakend considerably, stalled, once the turn began happening it recovered & started bombing.. still hadn't quit..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
Cyclone Gael is now a Cat 4 with a pressure of 933mb and sustained winds of 120kts(140mph).

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Quoting pearlandaggie:
654. now atmo, there you go stirring the pot again! :)

correction....i meant to say "cauldron"...some might misunderstand my meaning! LOL


Dang, read it through. Pretty harsh, but I cannot honestly disagree much of anything he said in that letter.

Makes one wonder if Gray isn't lurking here sometimes. I can attest to his points about AMS meetings, funding, and publications being almost entirely pro AGW. And that I have seen far more actual challenge and discussion in blogs.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
654. now atmo, there you go stirring the pot again! :)

correction....i meant to say "cauldron"...some might misunderstand my meaning! LOL
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Ohhh my. Bill Gray simply does not care whose feathers get ruffled.

"I am appalled at the selection of James Hansen as this year’s recipient of the AMS’s highest award - the Rossby Research Medal. James Hansen has not been trained as a meteorologist. His formal education has been in astronomy. His long records of faulty global climate predictions and alarmist public pronouncements have become increasingly hollow and at odds with reality..."

Link

I actually have never visited that site (where the letter is hosted). I usually stick to scientific ones I am familiar with, but I got an email about this particular letter.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting vortfix:
Hi, I just read that the northern gulf is at a high risk for being hit by a hurricane this year. I live in Mississippi, can any one give me some more information on this.


That is said every year since 2005 and will continue to be said.
i normally go with theres a good bet a hurricane will strike anywhere from newfoundland south to gulf ,caribbean,west tropical atlantic
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron