Groundhog: Six more weeks of winter!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on February 02, 2009

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Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. From the official web site of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, groundhog.org:

Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!

On Gobbler's Knob on this fabulous Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2009
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
Awoke to the call of President Bill Cooper
And greeted his handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths

After casting a joyful eye toward thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil proclaimed that his beloved Pittsburgh Steelers were World Champions one more time

And a bright sky above me
Showed my shadow beside me.

Six more weeks of winter it will be.


How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, instead of building wooden badgers, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.

What the models say
The latest 16-day run of the GFS model shows the jet stream retreating to a position in southern Canada in about a week, which will usher in milder temperatures over the eastern half of the U.S. compared to average. However, the model predicts that a series of cold air outbreaks typical for February will occasionally dip down over northern regions of the U.S. over the coming two weeks, bringing colder than average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest, and near average temperatures to the Midwest and Northeast. The latest 1-month and 3-month outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center show a continuation of this pattern for the remainder of winter and into Spring, with a heightened chance of above-average temperatures in the Southern U.S. Cooler than average temperatures in the Northern Plains are typical when weak La Niña conditions are present in the Eastern Pacific (Figure 1), as is currently the case.


Figure 1. Departure of winter temperature from average for winters when a weak La Niña event was present. Temperatures in the Northern Plains have typically been 1-2°F below average for the eight winters in the past 50 years that have had weak La Niña events. Image credit: Jan Null, Golden Gate Weather, and NOAA/ESRL.

Kentucky's ice storm
Six more weeks of winter is not what ice storm-battered Kentucky needs, as the state continues to recover from its most widespread power outage in history. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be below freezing over the most of the state, but should warm into the 50s by the end of the week. More than half of the 600,000 customers affected by the outage have now had their power restored. The previous largest power outage in state history occurred just five months ago, when the remnants of Hurricane Ike brought wind gusts near hurricane force to Kentucky.

The Groundhog Oscillation: convincing evidence of climate change
According to a 2001 article published in the prestigious Annals of Improbable Research titled, "The Groundhog Oscillation: Evidence of Global Change", Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts have shown a high variability since 1980. This pattern, part of the larger "Groundhog Oscillation" or GO cycle, is convincing evidence of human-caused climate change.

More on climate change in my next post on Tuesday or Wednesday, when I'll look at claims that the Earth has been cooling since 1998.

Jeff Masters

Uphill (phoebe)
This short Ozarks up hill road was covered with downed trees yesterday before neighbors worked all day to clear it. Needless to say, we've got great neighbors.
Uphill
Power out (HIE1224)
Power out
Promise of Spring (MParks)
Winter of 2009 ice storm in Ky.
Promise of Spring

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163. MissNadia
1:42 PM GMT on February 03, 2009
New Blog!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
162. all4hurricanes
11:13 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
That huge GOM super storm you were all was supposed to travel up the east coast well it missed us it went offshore and we got maybe 1/4 of an inch of snow >:( only one good snowfall this winter it's annoying
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2356
161. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:47 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
At 08:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Nine-F (999 hPa) located at 13.7S 160.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots, possibly increasing to 35 knots in the sector 50 to 180 NM of the center in the northeastern semi-circle in the next 18 to 24 hours. Position POOR based on multispectral/infrared with animation, latest Quikscat Pass, and peripheral surface observations.

Low level circulation center is obscured, with some indications of good inflow bands feeding into TD NINE from the north and west. Moderate shear exist over the system with deep convection displaced to the north. The system is located under a 250 HPA diffluence region with an upper outflow to the west. Sea surface temperatures is around 31C. TD NINE is under the influence of a northerly steering and CIMMS indicates decreasing shear along the depression expected southerly movement for awhile. Surge from the south, northeast, and northwest has started feeding into the system. Recent satellite images indicate good.

Global models are moving TD NINE south for some time then southeast thereafter with some intensification.

Dvorak analysis based on curved band patterns Yield..

T2.0/2.0/D1.0/ 24 HRS

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY IS ISSUED AT AROUND 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44873
160. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:12 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
FVFE01 RJTD 030743
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20090203/0743Z
VAAC: TOKYO
VOLCANO: SAKURA-JIMA 0802-08
PSN: N3135E13040
AREA: JAPAN
SUMMIT ELEV: 1060M
ADVISORY NR: 2009/12
INFO SOURCE: JMA
AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL
ERUPTION DETAILS: EXPLODED AT 20090203/0732Z FL060 EXTD E
OBS VA DTG: NIL
OBS VA CLD: IN INVESTIGATING SATELLITE DATA. WINDS ABV THE VOLCANO
AT
03/0730Z FL060 260/32KT FROM JMA NWP MODEL.
FCST VA CLD +6HR: NIL
FCST VA CLD +12HR: NIL
FCST VA CLD +18HR: NIL
RMK: NIL
NXT ADVISORY: WE WILL ISSUE FURTHER ADVISORY IF VA IS DETECTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY=
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44873
159. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:19 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWO
Tropical Low
3:50 PM WDT February 3 2009
========================================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 15.7S 125.6E or 440 kms northeast of Broome and 190 kms southwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west-northwest at 5 knots.

The low is expected to move off the west Kimberley coast by Wednesday morning and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west away from the coast. Gales are not expected on the coast during Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop during Thursday.

Cyclone Watch
=================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Broome.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44873
158. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:57 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIX
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GAEL (08-20082009)
10:00 AM Réunion February 3 2009
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Gael (995 hPa) located at 17.2S 64.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.0S 63.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 18.5S 61.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 18.2S 56.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.6S 53.3E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
System remains sheared and shows a broad vortex, totally exposed on the southeastern edge of the deep convective activity. Low level inflow is rather good on the both edges but intensification remains limited due to the vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to weak beyond 36 hours, but with only one equatorward upper level outflow channel. A second one could appear poleward beyond 72 hours forecast.

INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44873
157. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:08 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number ONE
Tropical Low EIGHT-U
9:50 AM WDT February 3 2009
========================================

At 9:00 AM WDT, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 16.0S 126.0E or 455 kms east northeast of Broome and 200 kms south southwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving slowly westward.

The low is expected to move off the west Kimberley coast by Wednesday morning and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west away from the coast. Gales are not expected on the coast during Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop during Thursday.

Cyclone Watch
=================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Broome.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44873
156. stillwaiting
5:04 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
its all about how strong the NC low gets,we'll have a good idea in about 8-12hrs,I'm sticking with my earlier snowfall prediction,as the qpf amounts are begining to reflect....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
155. kellnerp
5:01 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
One of the least understood phenomenon that follow weather disasters of this type is the retreat of insurance companies. A few years back my area had a couple bad years. A big hail storm decimated roofs and siding one year. Then an ice-storm and some wind to remove what the hail left behind.

Shortly thereafter the insurance companies decided this area had become high risk and stopped writing policies making home insurance hard to obtain.

Unlike tornadoes and hurricanes that can be expected to repeat similar levels of damage each time they pass through an area, hail, wind and ice tend to cull out the "bad apples" in terms of structures, power lines and such.

Since Kentucky has had many of its weak trees, power lines and such destroyed by the ice the state should far better in a similar storm next time around for at least five or ten years.

Odds are the insurance companies will treat Kentucky the same as here in the days to come and look at past loss to establish future predictions. In fact the large number of new roofs and the culling of weak trees will improve the odds for not paying out next time around.
Member Since: September 1, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
153. Tazmanian
4:34 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Quoting HurricaneKing:


O_O please tell me you're joking?




he was jokeing we wont see any TD or TS in tell june or july
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
152. Tazmanian
4:32 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Quoting G35Wayne:
Looks like a low spinning up under Key Largo could that be a depression forming? if so how strong would it get? maybe TS strength?



NO way in that kind of wind shear out there???? wind shear most be 100kt right now or higher
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
151. HurricaneKing
4:24 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Quoting G35Wayne:
Looks like a low spinning up under Key Largo could that be a depression forming? if so how strong would it get? maybe TS strength?


O_O please tell me you're joking?
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2466
150. G35Wayne
4:22 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Looks like a low spinning up under Key Largo could that be a depression forming? if so how strong would it get? maybe TS strength?
149. BahaHurican
3:54 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Evening everyone.

Looks like some nasty weather is building as that low comes out of the Gulf area.



Think I'm gonna find me an extra blanket - temps are supposed to dip to the low 50s here. We haven't been this cold since the late 70s / early 80s . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
148. stillwaiting
3:49 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
that has to be surface low pressure headed towards the bahamas!!!....interesting looking....and surfmom,you were definately running,jogging is what the old timers do,maybe you might start "jogging" in 20years or so though..lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
147. AussieStorm
3:37 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Tropical Cyclone Freddy is set to develop in north west Western Australia off the coast of the Pilburra by the end of this week
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
146. beell
3:24 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Too many vid flashbacks of SJ eating-scarred and scared...
Will do press. My bad!

Ante Meridian fer sure.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16265
145. presslord
3:19 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
well beell....Sj is pretty scary....can't blame ya for ducking him...but gimmee a call....I'm harmless....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
144. beell
3:17 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Got me cold busted there press (and sj)! I know. I have been ducking. Not sure what I'm ducking but will stop it immediately!

conchy-all I can say is your Husband has a highly refined sense of humor and has chosen his mate well lol

lol down Aussie ways as well!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16265
143. conchygirl
3:12 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
OMG Beell. My husbands favorite movies....funny..........funny!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
142. presslord
3:10 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
beell....you're a hard man to track down....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
141. beell
2:57 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Last one-i promise!

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16265
140. AussieStorm
2:49 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Quoting beell:
Thanks for the annual groundhog report and the MP link!

lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
139. beell
2:45 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Thanks for the annual groundhog report and the MP link Doc!

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16265
138. AussieStorm
2:43 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Floodwaters swamp north Qld
Tuesday February 3, 2009

ABC image
Floodwaters pour down the Leichhardt River and over a road crossing in Mount Isa. - ABC

There has been no let-up in north Queensland with floodwaters continuing to rise and homes being evacuated in the aftermath of ex-tropical cyclone Ellie.

Almost 420 millimetres of rain has fallen at Ingham in the past two days, isolating the community.

Heavy falls continue with the weather bureau forecasting more rain.

The Herbert River through Ingham peaked overnight with more than a dozen homes now flooded and another 400 with water underneath them.

The State Emergency Service (SES) will use boats to access the worst affected areas this morning to check on residents.

Queensland Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts says it is the third highest flood in Ingham's history.

"The Herbert River peaked at around 3am at 12.2 metres," he said.

"In practical terms that meant around 200 homes had external inundation and unfortunately around 10 homes had one to two metres go right through them, so it's been quite devastating for those families."

Hinchinbrook Mayor Pino Giandominico says the scale of the flood has caught newcomers by surprise.

"The floods we have been having were only baby floods, so when we get a good one people are going to get a shock because a lot of people around the district, especially newcomers, thought they were in a flood-free area," he said.

Councillor Giandominico says there have been some evacuations of elderly residents.

"We have asked people to move out before the event but as always you get people who want to stay," he said.

Weather bureau hydrologist Jeff Perkins says water levels will stay high for most of the day.

"The Herbert flood river levels have basically peaked at major flood level and they've remained steady since midnight and they'll remain high during today and fall tonight and into tomorrow," he said.

District disaster coordinator Superintendent Noel Powers says the emergency response has been professional.

"The biggest problem is just going to be monitoring where the roads are going to be shut and responding to any calls for assistance," he said.

To the south of Townsville, Giru is surrounded by floodwaters as the Haughton and Burdekin rivers continue to rise.

The Bruce Highway is closed in several places.

A motorist ran over a crocodile in Townsville as floodwaters create dangerous road conditions.

Townsville Mayor Les Tyrell says wildlife officers removed the crocodile from Ross River Road at about 3am AEST.

He says road conditions are hazardous.

"Our blokes are putting signage up at various places," he said.

"We do have some issue overflow of sewerage pump stations I understand around the north ward area."

Queensland Trucking Association spokesman Peter Garske says there are more than 50 B-doubles stranded by floodwaters in the state's north.

"The cost down the line - not only to the trucking operator - but to the consumer through increased products when supplies run short, hundreds of millions of dollars would not take long for a good economist to sum up in terms of the impact," he said.

Burdekin Mayor Lyn McLaughlin says the flood is being closely monitored.

"At that level, there's no water in the houses but we don't know what's going to happen for the rest of the day," she said.

Further west, new flooding records have been set in the Gulf country, with water still rising in some areas and forcing the evacuation of more properties.

Carpentaria Shire Council acting Mayor Joyce Zahner says the river is expected to peak tomorrow

"We've had some evacuations from Normanton, we've relocated both persons and property to higher accommodation in Normanton," she said.

"We've had five isolated stations evacuated.

"There are numerous other stations around the area that have water inundation through their houses and we are keeping a very close eye on all of this."

Kylie Camp from Floraville Station, south-east of Burketown, says they have recorded more than a metre of rain so far this wet season.

She says they have never seen such flooding in the Leichhardt River.

"Previously the flooding after cyclone Larry was our highest known flooding event here and we've probably exceeded that by at least a foot and it is still rising," she said.

"The only land left is the cement pad around our house and two metres squared around our jackeroos quarters.

"Our air strip is totally under water [and] in all our low-lying buildings and sheds."

Federal Member for Kennedy Bob Katter says the Army should be on stand-by to help flood-affected communities in the Gulf.

He says Karumba is cut off.

"The barge is 10 days round trip. The fruit and vegetables are bad by the time they get from Cairns down to Karumba," he said.

"But one case there was a two-month-old child had to be bought back in a tinnie through crocodile-infested major floodwaters some 70 kilometres from Normanton to Karumba."

Weather bureau spokeswoman Alicia Duncanson says a second low pressure system could develop in the Coral Sea by Thursday bringing more rain.

"Somewhere either due east of Cairns or Innisfail and we think we've got a pretty good idea of where it's going to be," she said.

"But you know what these things are like, it could be a lot further out or a lot closer in."

Meanwhile, the wettest place in the state in January was Paluma Ivy Cottage, north-west of Townsville.

Weather bureau manager of climate services Jeff Sabburg says it is more than double the average January rainfall but not a record.

"The record that I can see for January was in 1981 of 1,417, so it's not actually a record," he said.

He says more than 880 millimetres of rain fell on Cairns last month.

Despite periods of heavy rain, the weather bureau says the Mackay region fell short of the long-term January average.

The Mount Bassett weather station recorded 265 millimetres, just short of the average of 277.9 millimetres.

Mr Sabburg says it is unlikely that above average rainfall will be recorded in coming months.

"What's going on with the monthly rainfall at the moment, it's not a good indicator of what's likely to come in the next few months, at this time of year," he said.

"So we're having good rain in some parts of the state, but it may be not quite so good in the coming months, particularly after March."


- ABC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
137. AussieStorm
2:39 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Weather extremes a taste of the future: expert
Tuesday February 3, 2009

A climate change expert is tipping the extreme weather conditions experienced in Tasmania last month to become more routine.

The record for Tasmania's hottest day was broken twice, with Flinders Island reaching 41 degrees on January 29th and Scamander 42 degrees the next day.

The record for Tasmania's coldest January day was also broken, with Mt Wellington only reaching two degrees on the 16th.

A climate change expert from the University of Tasmania, Dr Kate Crowley, says it is very concerning.

"Shifting weather patterns cause shifting eco-systems so I guess that means areas that are dry are becoming wet, areas that are wet are becoming dry, areas that are prone to bushfire are going to be prone to catastrophic bushfire," he said.

"So it really is of concern."

- ABC

AussieStorm: Is Dr Kate Crowley saying that the desert area in the middle of Oz going to become a rainforest? I think not lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
136. AussieStorm
2:36 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
US winter to linger, groundhog declares
Tuesday February 3, 2009


America's most famous groundhog has declared that the country will have six more weeks of winter.

Punxsutawney Phil, the latest in a line of rodents that have been "prognosticating" on the length of winter for 123 years, saw his shadow in the morning, considered an omen of how long winter will last.

In keeping with tradition in this western Pennsylvania town, the groundhog ceremonially emerged from his "burrow," actually a box set into a tree stump, and communicated his prediction to Bill Cooper, a top-hatted town elder who claims to be the only person in the world to speak "Groundhogese."

The event, based on the festival of Candlemas, was made famous by the 1993 movie Groundhog Day starring Bill Murray, which was based in Punxsutawney.

Town leaders spend about $30,000 on Groundhog Day each year, hoping to maintain Phil's status as the benchmark groundhog forecaster.

Jeff Grube, one of the organisers, said Groundhog Day helps distract him from concerns about his industrial coatings business in the recession and financial crisis.

"People are in a good mood," he said. "It's just good fun."

Hugh and Marirose Dirstine came from Los Angeles to celebrate their 35th wedding anniversary on their first trip to Groundhog Day, saying they were inspired by the movie.

"It's just part of America," said Marirose, a teacher.

In New York City, another groundhog called Staten Island Chuck failed to see his shadow when he was lured from his cage by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, predicting that spring was near.

Two Canadian groundhogs, Wiarton Willie in Ontario and Shubenacadie Sam in Nova Scotia, saw their shadows to forecast a lingering winter.

Authorities in Punxsutawney say Phil is always correct but, according to the US National Climate Prediction Centre, he and his fellow groundhogs get it right about 39 per cent of the time.

Organisers estimated 13,000 people, some from Japan, Iceland and Egypt, witnessed Phil do his thing in temperatures around freezing.

The crowd was entertained from 3:00am (local time) by dancing girls and top-hatted moderators who introduced special guests.

The highlights included Jason Balsan, a New York City police officer, getting down on one knee and proposing on stage to his girlfriend Katie Slattery. She said yes.

Sheldon Carr, an engineer from Newburg, Wisconsin, was unable to explain the appeal of Groundhog Day, especially to non-Americans.

"There's no reason," he said.

"No one understands the Yanks."

As the crowd dispersed to the sounds of Bobby McFerrin's Don't Worry, Be Happy, Mr Cooper told the people, "There are a lot of serious and important things in life, and Groundhog Day isn't one of them."

-Reuters

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
135. all4hurricanes
2:23 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
I looking forward to see what storms retire
good night
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2356
134. npenta519
2:16 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Honestly don't think it matters...either way, there is still 6 more weeks of winter.

Might be better if that groundhog could tell us whether we were gonna get much more snow. Don't know where we're gonna put it all.
133. charlesimages
2:03 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Doesn't really matter what Phil says in Michigan unfortunately we have winter until March or April regardless...
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
132. KEHCharleston
2:00 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i think starting tuseday or wedenday iam gonna take a mid winter nap for the next 6 weeks

So we have no need to worry about snow, if you are napping - right?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:39 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
i think starting tuseday or wedenday iam gonna take a mid winter nap for the next 6 weeks
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
130. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:37 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Jesus, already? It just felt like a few days ago it was 180+ Days. Before you know it, Tropical Storm Ana will be ringing the bells in May/June.
ya wont be long but first we got to get over pre-season predictions then our normal troll run just before the official start of things

in 49 days it will be the first day of spring and we will be starting to take a peek to see how things are setting up
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
129. conchygirl
1:25 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Quoting surfmom:
Glad to hear I was running... when people say jogging I get bummed, means I wasn't moving fast enough -- Cool temps. made for a fast run yesterday -- listening to The Boss helped a lot too!
Surfmom, so agree with the jogging versus running - irritates me too. Knowing you, you must be so sick of this cold weather.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
128. surfmom
1:20 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting:
good to hear from you surfmom,I saw you running on the key yesterday....can't miss the always present "yellow hat"..lol.....its darn windy today to go along w/the rain,its like a "south-wester",lol...
Glad to hear I was running... when people say jogging I get bummed, means I wasn't moving fast enough -- Cool temps. made for a fast run yesterday -- listening to The Boss helped a lot too!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
127. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:03 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-F
9:00 AM FST February 3 2009
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 13.0S 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20-25 knots about 120 miles from the center. The depression is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multispectral/visible with animation, latest Quikscat Pass, and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperatures is around 31C.

Difficult to discern low level circulation center, Quikscat suggests elongated trough at this stage. Strong shear exists over the system with deep convection displaced to the north. The 250 HPA subtropical ridge to the south is moving north and will increase upper diffluence in the area. CIMMS indicates decreasing shear along 09F expected southerly movement. Surge from the south, northeast, and northwest has started feeding into the system. Recent satellite images indicate dry air to the south, which is likely to hold off development in the short term. Global models has captured TD NINE and moves it south or southeast with some intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW AND MODERATE THERE AFTER.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44873
126. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:51 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FIVE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 08-20082009
4:00 AM Réunion February 3 2009
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 16.5S 65.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northern semi-circle... reaching locally 35kts in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.1S 64.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 17.5S 62.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 17.8S 57.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.0S 54.1E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
System is sheared with an low level circulation located east of the main convection. Environmental conditions were stationary during the last hours with a weak to moderate vertical wind shear and the low level only fed mainly by the monsoon flow.

The system will move towards west-southwest in relation with a weakeness of the upper level ridge. Up to 24 hours, it should move west beyond with the increasing of high pressure in the south.

The low level inflow is better poleward after tomorrow evening thanks to the increasing gradient with the subtropical high pressure. In the upper levels, wind shear will decrease but only one outflow will settle in the next 36-48 hours.

Intensification rate is slow for the next 36 hours and then at a climatological rate.

INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44873
125. Patrap
12:44 AM GMT on February 03, 2009


..another Climate Change entry!

Darn!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
124. antonio28
12:27 AM GMT on February 03, 2009
Wow I thougt that Hurricanes and Earthquake are the worst that mother nature can give to us, but the winter's storms are even more dangerous.

When the Hurricane pre-season stars?
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
123. calusakat
11:51 PM GMT on February 02, 2009
Quoting Skyepony:
STLouiskid~ Been a few years since I saw it. Think it would have been better had Gore not been in the film. Part of it seemed devoted to his future political adjenda. Parts were pretty boring. Kinda put a very democratic spin in the issue worse than before.. seemed to make some "older" republicans very sceptical of the new light bulbs, know some to this day that won't use them & will go on about Gore if they are mentioned. It was a poor way to approach a demagraphic that needed reached the most. And it's getting out of date. NW passage opened way sooner than proclamed along with some other projections. Dr Master's & I think his daughter did a blog review on it when it 1st came out. If I remember right~ she was pretty bored by it.

Nice job.


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
122. CybrTeddy
11:41 PM GMT on February 02, 2009
Quoting IKE:


And then another blog on it on Tuesday or Wednesday...

"More on climate change in my next post on Tuesday or Wednesday, when I'll look at claims that the Earth has been cooling since 1998.

Jeff Masters"........

I'm sure your next blog entry will warm up the planet with the arguing that goes on in here over it.

Hurricane season can't start soon enough.....

118+ days and it's here....


Jesus, already? It just felt like a few days ago it was 180+ Days. Before you know it, Tropical Storm Ana will be ringing the bells in May/June.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627
121. hurricanelover236
11:16 PM GMT on February 02, 2009
Is it gonna be bad in south florida later? Could someone please ease my fears.
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 183
120. Seastep
10:59 PM GMT on February 02, 2009
Wind picking up and sky is getting ominous here in broward.

Time to head out and try to beat the storms home.
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119. HIEXPRESS
10:56 PM GMT on February 02, 2009


Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
118. atmoaggie
10:56 PM GMT on February 02, 2009
Any of you GFS gurus in here know what I should consider the time-averaging for GFS wind data? Got any documentation? (could not find it...)

I need to compare GFS 0-hour nowcasts to buoy data (8-minute average) from last hurricane season. Need to see if the GFS nowcast is up to muster.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
117. Ossqss
10:54 PM GMT on February 02, 2009
HI all, I thought this site may be of interest to some of you. Operational Significant Event Imagery from NOAA. Be well.
Link

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
116. Patrap
10:46 PM GMT on February 02, 2009
NEXRAD Radar
Key West, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
115. MisterPerfect
10:46 PM GMT on February 02, 2009

Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
114. Patrap
10:45 PM GMT on February 02, 2009
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
113. Seastep
10:42 PM GMT on February 02, 2009
Tornado vortex just NW of key west moving towards miami.

It could get nasty in SE FL.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.