Inauguration weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on January 19, 2009

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Barack Obama won't have the weather as the first concern of his presidency, unlike some of his predecessors. The weather for Tuesday's swearing in ceremony promises to be precipitation-free, with a mix of sun and clouds. With temperatures in the low 30s and a moderate north wind of 10-15 mph, he'll have to bundle up, though. As the afternoon progresses, clouds will dominate for the parade, but the weather at the inauguration promises to be a non-story, unlike some previous occasions:

Most Dramatic and Tragic - 1841:
President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, windy day, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes, and he rode a horse to and from the Capitol, without wearing a hat or overcoat. Pneumonia developed from a lingering cold he caught on that day and he died just one month later.

Almost as bad - 1853:
President Franklin Pierce was sworn into office during a snowstorm, with temperatures near freezing. Shortly after Pierce took his oath of office, as he began his inaugural address, heavier snow began falling, dispersing much of the crowd and ruining plans for the parade. Abigail Fillmore, First Lady to the outgoing President Millard Fillmore, caught a cold as she sat on the cold, wet, exposed platform during the swearing-in ceremony. The cold developed into pneumonia and she died at the end of the month.

Worst Weather Day - 1909:
President William H. Taft's ceremony was forced indoors due to a storm that dropped 10 inches of snow over the Capital city. The snow and winds began the day before, toppling trees and telephone poles. Trains were stalled, and city streets clogged, bringing all activity to a standstill. Sanitation workers shoveled sand and snow through the night. It took 6,000 men and 500 wagons to clear 58,000 tons of snow and slush from the parade route. Despite the freezing temperatures, howling wind, snow, and sleet, a large crowd gathered in front of the Capitol to view the inauguration, but the weather forced the ceremony indoors. Just after the swearing-in, the snow tapered off.


Figure 1. Inauguration day, 1909. Workers shovel away heavy snow from in front of President Taft's reviewing stand (left). President Taft and wife returning to the White House after the ceremony (right).

The material for this post was taken from an excellent Presidential Inaugural Weather web page put together by the National Weather Service forecast office in Washington D.C. The page has loads more information, for those interested.

Good luck, Mr. Obama!

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters

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This is a Water Vapor of the Low......


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Hey guys, what about the wind with the storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Raleigh just went to Winter Storm Warning in the last hour. Waiting for Morehead City NWS to make the call for eastern NC.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1459
OMG! We are now in a Snow Warning!! I might get to make snowman tommorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Try this site it is awsome for immediate updates and you can see many bouys at once with wind directions.....


Link

Just what I needed. That is so cool. Thanks.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Quoting largeeyes:
This could be my first NC snowstorm. The locals are about to have a coronary.


Pressure is falling so the low is getting stronger....it could be much larger than forecasted.......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
This could be my first NC snowstorm. The locals are about to have a coronary.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1459
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Cotillion regarding Cardinals, from your lips to God's ears.

Tampa or anyone else,
If I watch the buoys off SC and NC (wind direction presently SW, pressure dropping). I should see a change in wind direction. If it tracks close to shore will the wind be more northerly, and farther away with an additional easterly component???
I know this is as basic as it gets, but for some reason, I have such a hard time visualizing these things. I try sketching it out on paper. I have a mental roadblock for this for some reason - so frustrating. It's like I am dyslexic when it comes to wind directions.
(For one thing, it always seems backwards to me. A northerly wind comes from the north - to me it is heading south, so should be called a southerly wind)
Thanks


Try this site it is awsome for immediate updates and you can see many bouys at once with wind directions.....


Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
#74

Another thing to bear in mind is, the last 2 seasons have started before June.

Since 1995, and the beginning of the positive AMO phase, the following start dates have occurred:

1995: June 2nd (Hurricane Allison, landfall in Florida.)
1996: June 17th (TS Arthur, landfall in N Carolina.)
1997: May 31st (Subtropical Storm One, no landfall.)
1998: July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex, no landfall.)
1999: June 11th (Tropical Storm Arlene, no landfall.)
2000: June 7th (TD 1, no landfall. First named storm was Alberto in August. No landfall there either.)
2001: June 4th (TS Allison, landfall in Texas.)
2002: July 14th (TS Arthur, v. close to N Carolina.)
2003: April 20th (TS Ana, no landfall.)
2004: July 31st (Hurricane Alex, direct hit/close to N Carolina)
2005: June 8th (TS Arlene, landfall in Florida.)
2006: June 10th (TS Alberto, landfall in Florida.)
2007: May 9th (SS Andrea, v.close to Florida/Georgia.)
2008: May 30th (TS Arthur, Belize.)

Last 2 have had an early start, with 3 of the last 6 seasons doing so.

Furthermore, those with a very late start: 1998, 2002 and 2004 - Two of those were El Nino. (Yes, they usually start earlier, and finish later I seem to recall..) 1998 I can't remember but I think it was a La Nina.

As well as this, look at those that made landfall. Roughly half made landfall, or within a close enough distance to the coast to put citizens under some sort of warning.

Last one to be safely out of harm's way was back in 2003.

The first tropical wave last year was what.. April?

I guess overall - officially, it starts on June 1st. Though, unofficially (with gradually more frequent 'anomalies'), it starts a little earlier. Especially with those landfalling even in early June, preparation ought to be completed a little earlier.

'course that said - we are in January, still at least 3 months to go before any real blob watching... 4 months until you dust off the model runs and SSD animations.:)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Cotillion regarding Cardinals, from your lips to God's ears.

Tampa or anyone else,
If I watch the buoys off SC and NC (wind direction presently SW, pressure dropping). I should see a change in wind direction. If it tracks close to shore will the wind be more northerly, and farther away with an additional easterly component???
I know this is as basic as it gets, but for some reason, I have such a hard time visualizing these things. I try sketching it out on paper. I have a mental roadblock for this for some reason - so frustrating. It's like I am dyslexic when it comes to wind directions.
(For one thing, it always seems backwards to me. A northerly wind comes from the north - to me it is heading south, so should be called a southerly wind)
Thanks
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
The GFS has Snow flying in Tampa now.....LOL

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting IKE:


132 days....
11 hours....
11 minutes..

and it starts.


The irony is, during hurricane season, we count down to the end of the season because a lot of people lost a lot and we want it over, but in the offseason, we count to the beginning because we have nothing to do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Sorry about your Ravens. I figured w/a rookie QB and the game in Pittsburgh, it was all but certain the Steelers would win.



No worries; thanks to you and KEH.

~I'm really surprised we got this far. 18 weeks w/o a bye, 2nd largest IR list, rookie QB/HC... a miracle, really.

Next year, providing we manage the cap well and have a good draft, things'll be fine.

And since the Steelers will get cut up by the Cardinals' passing game, they'll get the loser's curse... should be a straight run (with an easier schedule this year and hopefully a better team) at the AFC North title, and a playoff bye. ;)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
With a low expected to form off HAT tonight, I would not bet the farm on no precip in DC tomorrow. Having forecast these things many times, I know what a difference 30 miles or so can make. In 1979, we picked up 21" in KNHK off of a`similar situation. We are looking at a possible 3-5" tomorrow here in KORF.
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Glitter Critter Update:

Talked to the resident expert on Koi on the WestCoast. He has told me to do, what I hoped I would not have to do.. Sushi.. No just kidding.. he said I have to add heaters to the pond.... and bring up to summer time temperature to allow her metabolism to come up to speed.

So I have sent Barbi (SWMBO'ed) off with a heater to drop into the tank.. should see a difference within a few hours. Did anyone notice I did not mention to her that we should move to Florida with the fish. Two reasons for that... one is your temperatures are no warmer then ours right now.. what are you guys doing down there... anyone want to borrow a broken snow shovel?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
70. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


Was waiting for that!

'...Sponsored by Rolex...'



Sorry about your Ravens. I figured w/a rookie QB and the game in Pittsburgh, it was all but certain the Steelers would win.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
KEH...I hereby declare that even the thought of snow will make the bridges far too dangerous for you to cross....There! You're off tomorrow....
Good enough for me - No one should be out shopping anyway.

Right whales are active off SC. Speed restrictions of 10 knots apply to vessels 65 feet or greater within the vicinity of this station. It is illegal to approach right whales within 500 yards. To learn more about right whales and rules protecting them, go to: http://rightwhalessouth.nmfs.noaa.gov
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
The NAN now has the Low tracking closer up the East Coast.....could be a big snow Maker if it keeps tracking closer....

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting IKE:


132 days....
11 hours....
11 minutes..

and it starts.


Was waiting for that!

'...Sponsored by Rolex...'

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
KEH...I hereby declare that even the thought of snow will make the bridges far too dangerous for you to cross....There! You're off tomorrow....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone understand the numbering system for buoys?

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Quoting atmoaggie:


Lesson learned from the heavy snow we had in SE LA: If it snows hard enough with fat enough flakes neither the air nor the ground has to be below/near freezing for it to stick.

We built up 5 inches here, (8 inches not far away) with the air at ~35 F and the ground probably more than 50 F. We even had an inch on roads and at least a few on bridges. And, it stuck around for ~48 hours (on grass, houses, cars) with temps above freezing the entire time.

Yikes! Watch out folks in North Carolina.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Crazy weather forcast for Tampa......this is the high and low forecast for Wednesday...

54° F | 27° F
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting MisterPerfect:
Inauguration weather:

4 Year Snow Job.


How freaking funny.......LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Inauguration weather:

4 Year Snow Job.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RE:56. presslord - It would be a good day to be home - get to watch the inaugaration. Wish I could call in - maybe with enough snow....hmmmm.


Found this interesting from National Data Buoy Center
Notice: NDBC plans to conduct testing of its DART (tsunameter) network the week of January 12-16, 2009. Click here for details.
Please Note

NDBC PLANS TO CONDUCT TESTING OF ITS TSUNAMETER (DART) NETWORK DURING THE WEEK OF JANUARY 12, 2009. THE TEST WILL CONSIST OF PUTTING EACH STATION IN TSUNAMI MODE. EACH DAY FOUR TO SIX TSUNAMETER STATIONS WILL BE TRIGGERED. THE TESTING WILL BEGIN AT 1500 GMT EACH DAY. THE SCHEDULE IS AS FOLLOWS:

* 12 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 32412, 44401, 46413, 46410, 46412, 52409
* 13 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 21418, 43412, 44402, 46404, 46409, 51426, 52401
* 14 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 21413, 41424, 43413, 46403, 46407, 51425
* 15 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 32411, 41421, 46402, 42409, 46419, 51407, 52406
* 16 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 42407, 46408, 46411, 51406

NDBC DISTRIBUTES THE DATA FOR THE TSUNAMETER NETWORK VIA THE GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEM /GTS/ BULLETIN HEADERS SZNT01 KWNB, SZPN01 KWNB, SZPS01 KWNB AND SZIO01 KWNB IN THE NATIVE FORMAT FOR THE DEEP-OCEAN ASSESSMENT AND REPORTING OF TSUNAMIS /DART/ TECHNOLOGY. NDBC WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY EVENTS THAT MAY TRIGGER A TSUNAMI AND WILL SUSPEND TESTING IMMEDIATELY IF AN EVENT OCCURS.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Quoting KEHCharleston:

I would rather not see snow on the ground. Is the ground cold enough for snow to stick? Not so worried here on the peninsula, where I am surrounded by water (relatively warm). StormJunkie may get his wish in Goose Creek though! As long as they do not share with us along the coast.


Lesson learned from the heavy snow we had in SE LA: If it snows hard enough with fat enough flakes neither the air nor the ground has to be below/near freezing for it to stick.

We built up 5 inches here, (8 inches not far away) with the air at ~35 F and the ground probably more than 50 F. We even had an inch on roads and at least a few on bridges. And, it stuck around for ~48 hours (on grass, houses, cars) with temps above freezing the entire time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
58. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Dr.Masters thank you for the weather history page, great info for my tutoring session. I can see the Weather Channel making an episode of When Weather Changed History out of those.


132 days....
11 hours....
11 minutes..

and it starts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr.Masters thank you for the weather history page, great info for my tutoring session. I can see the Weather Channel making an episode of When Weather Changed History out of those.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"As long as they do not share with us along the coast"


Amen, sister!!!!! but my 17 year old will be glad if he can't get to Bishop England....
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Quoting presslord:
If we get snow here in the Lowcountry I'm gonna really be mad about it....

I would rather not see snow on the ground. Is the ground cold enough for snow to stick? Not so worried here on the peninsula, where I am surrounded by water (relatively warm). StormJunkie may get his wish in Goose Creek though! As long as they do not share with us along the coast.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
If we get snow here in the Lowcountry I'm gonna really be mad about it....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning,

RE: 25. Cotillion Northeast Atlantic Surface Pressure & Wind (Sorry about your Ravens, was cheering for them)

RE: Jetstream vs arctic blast heading south?

RE:TampaSpin Blog - Loads slow, but always worth the wait. I think it is due to my computer (low resources) more than internet speed. I appreciate the "in simple terms"!!!

RE: Low off southeast coast - Folly Beach Buoy WINDS SW
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
The National Weather Service just changed the Forecast for DC for tomorrow to a 30% chance of Snow starting at 10am
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Local 5 day Forecast is 30% chance of rain, all days except Wednesday, which rises to 40%.
I personally think that is on the low side.
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Thanks Tampa.
I was'nt too concerned re: Vorticity. Looking to see if heavy rain was in the forecast for me. Looks to be a possibility. And that would be Un-Seasonal.
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Quoting pottery:
Good Day all.
Looking at the Images and loops, at the area around 50W 5N.
The GFS are hinting at something developing in the area of the South Carib. Islands in a week or so.
The area of convection in the ITCZ on the coast of NE Brazil is producing rains there now, and getting more pronounced. Upper level winds are southerly, and may lift this area north?
Comments ?


Steering layers maps would suggest that area to move into South America currently but, things could change as we know....Secondly the Vorticity maps does not show anything..

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Tampa,

If certain images have thumbnailed versions post those and make the images clickable to the larger images.

That's really the only suggestion I could think of.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
I could eliminate some graphics if you all think it needed......i don't have any issues on my Computer but, i don't have yours so let me know what i can do to help.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Good Day all.
Looking at the Images and loops, at the area around 50W 5N.
The GFS are hinting at something developing in the area of the South Carib. Islands in a week or so.
The area of convection in the ITCZ on the coast of NE Brazil is producing rains there now, and getting more pronounced. Upper level winds are southerly, and may lift this area north?
Comments ?
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I could use a RAM upgrade I think. Graphics are pretty advanced these days. I browse with Firefox though which is much faster than IE.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Your the first to ever complain. I know there is alot of graphics but, it could be alot more if i had loaded everything to do loops instead of clicking to loop.....LOL
Seriously...no problem for me with cable internet and wireless.
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Quoting sullivanweather:



I have the same problems loading that page...

I load it in a separate window when I do so and even then it freezes the cpu. for a few minutes.


It freezes mine just a little periodically....
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Quoting Drakoen:


Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...


That would be the Florida Gator pics...(j/k)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...



I have the same problems loading that page...

I load it in a separate window when I do so and even then it freezes the cpu. for a few minutes.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
Very interesting info Dr. Masters. Thanks for sharing.

Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...

I have high speed internet too and have trouble loading some blogs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...


Your the first to ever complain. I know there is alot of graphics but, it could be alot more if i had loaded everything to do loops instead of clicking to loop.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting conchygirl:
Interesting as I've never had any problems with it. Good information out there too!


After the initial entry it's a little easier to load.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...
Interesting as I've never had any problems with it. Good information out there too!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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