Inauguration weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on January 19, 2009

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Barack Obama won't have the weather as the first concern of his presidency, unlike some of his predecessors. The weather for Tuesday's swearing in ceremony promises to be precipitation-free, with a mix of sun and clouds. With temperatures in the low 30s and a moderate north wind of 10-15 mph, he'll have to bundle up, though. As the afternoon progresses, clouds will dominate for the parade, but the weather at the inauguration promises to be a non-story, unlike some previous occasions:

Most Dramatic and Tragic - 1841:
President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, windy day, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes, and he rode a horse to and from the Capitol, without wearing a hat or overcoat. Pneumonia developed from a lingering cold he caught on that day and he died just one month later.

Almost as bad - 1853:
President Franklin Pierce was sworn into office during a snowstorm, with temperatures near freezing. Shortly after Pierce took his oath of office, as he began his inaugural address, heavier snow began falling, dispersing much of the crowd and ruining plans for the parade. Abigail Fillmore, First Lady to the outgoing President Millard Fillmore, caught a cold as she sat on the cold, wet, exposed platform during the swearing-in ceremony. The cold developed into pneumonia and she died at the end of the month.

Worst Weather Day - 1909:
President William H. Taft's ceremony was forced indoors due to a storm that dropped 10 inches of snow over the Capital city. The snow and winds began the day before, toppling trees and telephone poles. Trains were stalled, and city streets clogged, bringing all activity to a standstill. Sanitation workers shoveled sand and snow through the night. It took 6,000 men and 500 wagons to clear 58,000 tons of snow and slush from the parade route. Despite the freezing temperatures, howling wind, snow, and sleet, a large crowd gathered in front of the Capitol to view the inauguration, but the weather forced the ceremony indoors. Just after the swearing-in, the snow tapered off.


Figure 1. Inauguration day, 1909. Workers shovel away heavy snow from in front of President Taft's reviewing stand (left). President Taft and wife returning to the White House after the ceremony (right).

The material for this post was taken from an excellent Presidential Inaugural Weather web page put together by the National Weather Service forecast office in Washington D.C. The page has loads more information, for those interested.

Good luck, Mr. Obama!

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters

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Very intense Fanele



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29*F in Macon this morning, no snow.
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I'm scanning back through the blogs..... this snow concept in SWFL ... a possibility -- O Heck noooooo. Might be interesting to surf in flurries....... should be a hoot with the horses...... they have never seen snow..... nor my Youngbuck for that matter. I just want to hibernate........

If Orca puts the heater in the rehab. pool for Glitter.... I may join her.
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I hear you MissNadia - inside seat work this morning -- but still have to work the horses out at the polo barn --no matter wind or rain......

Sorry to hear the word snow is in your forecast... it best stay out of mine. DAwn just breaking here -- winds kicking up...
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Pretty fierce looking cyclone. Good luck to those in Madagascar.

Advisories have been issued for heavy rain and gales for for Thursday, in anticipation of the next system.

Doesn't seem as strong as earlier predicted, with the stronger low moving off towards Iceland.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Waking to 57 Degrees in SWFLMonday morning, raging ocean - I can hear the waves alll the way to my house & a very strong wind,

SWFL Surf A long fetch across the gulf will setup and provide some choppy cold front surf to start the week. Chest high on Tuesday. A good chance for cold clean leftovers Wednesday morning. Waist high swell with NNE winds and temps in the low to mid 40's by then. Keep in mind it's gonna be cold the whole time and your gonna want your full-suit, booties, hot water, whatever you got to warm you up. Have a good week. Today looks choppy chunky and cold, find some blockage, should be good size, just cold and windy.

Got an hour of surf in yesterday - tempss. not too bad...but the rip tide current was intense. Felt like a flea getting sucked down a drain.

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Morning all
It is starting out to be a bad weather day in Coastal Carolina.
Temp is 41 with a cold rain
Forecast to soon drop into the low 30s and snow!
By nightfall accumulation should be 1 to 2 inches, UGH
I'm putting on a rain suit and walking before the snow!
Today is a day for Tax Returns!!!LOL
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 20:24:46 S Lon : 42:21:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 925.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.1 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +6.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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20/0830 UTC 20.4S 42.4E T6.0/6.0 FANELE -- Southwest Indian
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373. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele (CATEGORY 4 - MFR (Meteo France) Scale)
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372. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Cyclone Warning
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371. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ELEVEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ERIC (06-20082009)
10:00 AM RĂ©union January 20 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Eric (997 hPa) located at 22.8S 49.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving south-southeast at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 24.5S 48.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 27.2S 49.0E - 30 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
48 HRS: 32.3S 54.5E - (Extratropical)
72 HRS: 35.1S 60.0E - (Extratropical)

Additional Information
========================
The residual vortex of Eric is exposed to the southwest of the residual convection undergoing significant ventilation mostly due to the upper outflow coming from Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele, whose distance is less than 750 kms to the west. Moderate Tropical Storm Eric goes on moving round the low and mid-level subtropical ridge present eastwar and will withdraw from the tropical domain beyond 24 hour range while accelerating and recurving gradually southeastward within a highly sheared environment. Extratropical transition may however allow to re-deepen despite its small circulation and its prior partial filling up.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINE
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE FANELE (07-20082009)
10:00 AM RĂ©union January 20 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele (935 hPa) located at 20.5S 42.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center extending up to 150 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
120 NM from the center extending up to 180 in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.1S 43.3E - 110 knots (Intense Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 21.1S 44.5E - (DEPRESSION sur terre)
48 HRS: 23.6S 48.1E - (DEPRESSION sur terre)
72 HRS: 25.6S 50.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Cyclone Fanele has rapidly intensified undergoing very favorable environmental conditions under the upper level ridge with a good low level inflow equatorward and a strengthening poleward one, related to the rebuilding high pressures in the southwest. Most of the available NWP models shows an eastern turn towards the west coast of Madagascar but they are still some spread in both track and speed. However a landfall is expected up to 18 hours south to the Morondave/Morombe area. The system is expected to cross Malagasy island and exit over seas up to 48 hours forecast within favorable environment.
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370. emguy
Quoting largeeyes:
Looks like this storm may putz out.....


How is that? Which storm are you referencing? At this point, it depends on where you are at. Looks to me like the current weather in Florida through the Carolina's is a shortwave gyrating around the Main Low pressure system...that is about to bring much colder air to the south.

Shortwave

Looking up around Missou, there is another train coming through. The current one moving through FL and the Carolina's was about there this time yesterday, this one looks to be on the same schedule.

Should it get cold enough, and should enough moisture be around (It the form of Light Precip), Flurries are definately possible in immediate West Central Florida. If the air is drier, or the moisture is too great (I.E Moderate Precip), or...the timing is off. No Dice.

My call, light sprinkles from Henando through Collier in Florida. Some wintry mix, with the greatest chance of very isolated snow flurries from Lee County North. Sleet a fair bet. Anything east of I-75 seems to be out of the question as the air will be drier inland. It may flurry 1,000 feet above your head in Lakeland or Orlando, but it will evaporate before you know it (Verga Flurry).
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Looks like this storm may putz out.....
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
I have on radar a possible vortex near Sarasota Fl........
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Having trouble saturating the atmos. and staying warmer longer than expected here in nc. Sounds like the sos as the "big one"s back in Ohio.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
Radar is indacating strong rotation NE of Lutz Florida just north of Tampa
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
I lost power a few minutes ago and running on back power supply now......
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Radar is showing strong rotation near St. Pete Beach area.....
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Is it snowing in Tampa yet Tim?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting vortfix:
I only thought about it for 30 seconds man.

That is all!



I am impressed.. thats much longer then you normally think.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
School tomorrow

bye...
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355. Skyepony (Mod)
Here's Tampa radar
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Subsequent to the arrival of the Kata front that is currently over Northern FL, conditions will go downhill. The mesoscale (A) cyclone that is associated with that front will deepen rapidly as it moves towards the Atlantic. Substantial pressure gradient will cause high North winds to advect plenty of cold air southward. The anomalous dip within the upper level jet will further contribute to the quantity of cold air that is advecting south.

IM READY COLD!!

GFS 18Z
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TS looks like a really good line moving threw. getting stronger instead of weakening like usual.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1045 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY IN FLORIDA. EASTERN CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 1100 PM EST * AT 1046 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUSHNELL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LAKE PANASOFFKEE BY 1050 PM EST. WILDWOOD BY 1055 PM EST. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 314 AND 321. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS. TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES. LEAVE VEHICLES AND GET INTO A DITCH OR LOW SPOT. PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
no i have not been about a month since i saw him
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350. Skyepony (Mod)
It's Monday so ya'll get an ENSO rant.

Leveled off, next kelvin wave, as expected. I think we'll see a little more cooler before a slow warming a little past when it tends to do most seasons. ESPI went from -1.03 to -1.16 this week. & wow last months' models were mostly off.
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Hey severe, have you seen K-man on the blogs lately? I guess there is still alot of rebuilding going on in the Caymans...
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temp.going up and pressure going down fairly quick 1002.3 here in zephyrhills fl
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yes i agree, but nobody told him that.
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boy you all see how fast them storms are moving around Tampa, one is cruzing at 72kts.
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Quoting severstorm:
sounded earlier like press was havin a bad day. there was talk of snow up his way.
nothing a good bottle of Bourbon wont fix...lol.
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sounded earlier like press was havin a bad day. there was talk of snow up his way.
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Quoting vortfix:
futuremet....and the other newbies....you have no idea what might happen at any given moment on these blogs!



Gee take it easy on me lol
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I think press misses him...
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thats a good ? tkeith, think we should run a contest? LOL
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I wonder what handle JFV will use this season?
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335 your right, normally slow lots going on today
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Quoting severstorm:
futuremet, so busy cause theres a chance of snow showers in tampa. blog was really movin a couple of hours ago.


I missed out a lot then...

The blog is usually quiet during this time of year
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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