Ice and fire: extremes grip North America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:16 PM GMT on January 16, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

The lowest temperature ever recorded in the state of Maine occurred this morning, according to preliminary data from the National Weather Service. The temperature at Big Black River in northern Maine on the Canadian border bottomed out at -50F, besting the old record of -48°F. Here's the scoop from NWS:

At 0730 am EST this morning a USGS gage at Big Black River recorded a low temperature of -50F. This exceeds the current statewide record low temperature of -48F set on January 19th...1925 at Van Buren. This report is considered unofficial until a review of the equipment and data by the state climate extremes committee as to the validity of this report. If the committee ascertains that this is indeed a valid report...a separate public information statement will be issued at that time.


Figure 1. Temperature trace from the Big Black River, Maine USGS river gauge station, ending January 16, 2009. A record minimum of -50°F (-45.3°C) occurred. Image credit: USGS.

Figure 2. Minimum temperatures this morning for Maine. Image credit: National Weather Service, Caribou, Maine.


All-time state records are difficult to break. The last time a state record low was set was January 5, 1999, when Congerville, Illinois recorded -36°F. Only one state record high temperature has been set in the past the decade--the 120°F temperature measured in Usta, South Dakota on July 15, 2006.

This week's North American cold spell has been a notable one, with daily minimum temperature records falling in seventeen states, Sunday through Friday. A record low for the month of January was set Friday morning in Caribou, Maine, which recorded -37°F. This is the second coldest temperature ever recorded in Caribou, next to the -41°F recorded on February 1, 1962. Mason City, Iowa had it's lowest January temperature on record Friday morning, -31°F, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa, had its all-time lowest temperature for any month Thursday morning, a frigid -29°F. Bismark, North Dakota had its second coldest temperature ever, -44°F, on Thursday morning. This was only 1° from the all time low of -45° on January 13, 1916 and again on February 16, 1936. Bismark is also on pace for their snowiest season on record (61.2" so far).

Record heat in Alaska and California
The temperature swings this week in Alaska have been astounding. At Nenana, in central Alaska, the high was -42°F on Monday, with a low of -52°F. On Thursday morning, the temperature shot up 106°F from Monday, topping out at a positively tropical 54°F--the warmest January temperature ever measured in Nenana. Several other Alaska stations also set record highs for the month of January this week. Record highs for the month of January were also set at four California airports:

San Jose 75°F January 12
Sacramento 70°F January 12
San Francisco 72°F January 13
Red Bluff 78°F January 13, 15, 16

More record highs than lows have been set at the 381 major airports across the U.S. so far this week, through Friday. You can look up all the records at the National Climatic Data Center's excellent U.S. Records web site. Records for this week:

Jan 16
------
9 maximum high temperature records (CA, OR, WA, WY)
20 minimum low temperature records (GA, IA, IL, IN, MI, ME, MN, NH, PA, VT, WI)

Jan 15
------
11 maximum high temperature records (CA, WA, NV)
11 minimum low temperature records (IA, ND, IN, ME, NE, NY, SD)

Jan 14
-------
14 maximum high temperature records (AK, CA, OR, NV)
8 minimum low temperature records (IA, MI, MN, ND, TX)

Jan 13:
-------
13 maximum high temperature records (CA, OR, AK, FL)
9 minimum low temperature records (IA, MI, MN, ND)

Jan 12:
-------
9 maximum high temperature records (CA, OR, WA)
2 minimum low temperature records (AK, ND)

Jan 11:
-------
7 maximum high temperature records (CA, OR, WA)
1 minimum low temperature record (CA)

What's causing all this wild weather?
As usual, a sharp kink in the jet stream is responsible for the wild weather we're having. A ridge of high pressure over Alaska is forcing the jet to bow northwards into northern Alaska, allowing warm air from the Hawaii area to stream northwards over the region. Whenever the jet contorts into such a pattern, there must be a return flow of cold air from the pole that develops. That is occurring over the eastern half of the U.S., bringing us our Arctic air blast. The -17°F at my house in Michigan yesterday morning was the coldest it's been since 1994, brrr!

Jeff Masters

Icy Ferns (verlos)
Ice outside my window
Icy Ferns
January Sauna (pjpix)
Sunny bright at 12:30 P.M. and minus 7 degrees F. Some geese and mallards "enjoy" a January sauna in East Dundee, IL. The Fox River is about 38 degrees right now ... relatively warm when compared with today's frigid air temperature.
January Sauna
Very Cold Morning (Melagoo)
-18C or -1F in Burlington, ON ... and a beautiful sun-rise too!
Very Cold Morning

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 143 - 93

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

two storms by Madagascar I think we have a cyclone coming on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello All and GM, had a low temp here in Zephyrhills FL of 29.3 last night. No wind perfect cooling with a little frost. Time for another pot of java. have a great day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Greetings Cot.... Looking like some nasty,nasty weather.... can't imagine your ancestors living in non-heated castles or homes. Gives a whole new meaning to the word Hearth.... My genetics are defective for that kind of weather.... I'd survive the Sahara far better then the cold that's for sure.

Got a busy day ahead - so I'm out the door - peeking in throughout the day
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
morning MissNadia!!! -- me too! only I'm out for a run......we're the early birds!! Hope you get the walk in b/4 the rain.....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
I'm probably stuck on the beach till spring -- not enough fat to be a polar bear

ROFL!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New video from Futuremet Productions will be posted later today...."The Anatomy Of Single Cellular Storms"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is a cloudy 38 here in Wilmington
Going to have a chilly rain all day....Bummer!
I'm chuggin a coffee and dressing for a walk.
Out the door in a few to start a busy morning!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
Quoting Cotillion:
The names come from the Berlin University.

The synoptic chart for today hasn't come up yet, so we'll have to see if it was Frank or the next name, Gottfried.





Yup, Frank. That name strikes fear, or what!

All names for lows can be found here.

Rather than name particular strong lows, all of them are named. Same for the highs.

Norwegian Met Office has its own naming system for when they directly affect Norway itself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For this cold front Vort -- it's how it came in...on the horizon line was a huge, huge washing machine of waves....but the angle didn't bring the waves to the beach - and now the water is soo cold -- I'm probably stuck on the beach till spring -- not enough fat to be a polar bear
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
The warnings for Scotland have been downgraded to orange, I guess the storm moved North even faster than anticipated.

Advisories for snow and gales still in effect until Tuesday.

Next system have that seems to be about next weekend... model suggests a strong 954mb storm. (And if that works out, it'd be even lower than that.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The names come from the Berlin University.

The synoptic chart for today hasn't come up yet, so we'll have to see if it was Frank or the next name, Gottfried.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning.
Y'all stay colder on the west coast it seems Surfmom.
We only made it to 49 yesterday and it's currently 55.2.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
waking to 47 degrees in SWFL - yikes it's time for tights...gloves and a hoodie to run this morning.
SWFL Cold Front Surf Update
As we had suspected, the surf never manifested into anything really worth riding yesterday. Today it's cold, cold and more cold and flat with no chance of surf today. The next front approaching us late Sunday/Monday should have a better angle to it and also more energy providing us with a better chance of surf than this past week's small bump. Gulf temps have dropped a full 5 degrees and still falling this week so it's gonna be chilly out there when we jump back into the water. Gulf Temp 60

Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
Starwoman - thanks for that link. There are some great graphics, and really show how the low developed. Frank!! LOL

All quiet here in middle England
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
129. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


"Frank" is barely on the radar now..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Yeah, some have names. This one wasn't named for some odd reason. Have to double check though. And thanks :)


I saw yesterday on a Swiss stormforum that that storm is named "Frank"...
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Cotillion - Y'all do not give these winter gales names?
Luck tomorrow with your Ravens!

Orca - Hoping Glitter makes a quick return to good health.



Yeah, some have names. This one wasn't named for some odd reason. Have to double check though. And thanks :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
126. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Skyepony sure did and now it is number by Metéo-France Réunion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
125. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20082009
10:00 AM Réunion January 18 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 16.2S 51.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
20 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.2S 50.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 18.8S 49.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 22.6S 48.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 27.1S 50.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
System is fed by a good tradewinds inflow, but monsoon flow appears weaker and less efficient (possibly disturbed by the northern tip of Madagascar). Wind shear has slightly decreased over the last 24 hours and upper level divergence is good, especially in the northern part of with some nice cirrus expension (more limited in the southern part). As the system is over warm sea surface temperature in the range is 29C. Conditions appear favorable for further development. Most of the NWP guidance are now in good agreement about the development of this system and the philosophy of the track. The system should track on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge deepening towards a weakness in the pressure field located south of Madagascar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
124. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20082009
10:00 AM Réunion January 18 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 21.0S 42.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.7S 42.0E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.6S 41.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 18.2S 42.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)72 HRS: 19.4S 44.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Since 0000z, the system configuration has progressively improved, obvious signs of intensification. Low level circulation center is located thanks to 0248z SSMIS and 0334z SSMI. Today, peripheral bands should concern the western Malagasy coastline from Besalampy to Tulear. Environmental conditions are favorable for a regular intensification. System is expected to remain quasi-stationary within the next 24 hours and then recurve northeastward then southeastward towards the Malagasy coastline in the wake of Tropical Depression 06.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
123. Skyepony (Mod)
It's really come together in the last 12 hrs.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37178
122. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
WTXS22 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
05:30 AM UTC January 18 2009
================================

An area of convection (95S) located at 20.9S 42.3E or 295 NM west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a small, rapidly consolidating banding wrapping into a symmetric, cloud dense overcast-like feature. An 0334z SSMIS color image also indicates rapid consolidation with a well-defined low level circulation center. Animated water vapor imagery shows that an anticyclone has developed over the system with much improved dual channel outflow enhanced by an approaching midlatitude shortwave trough southwest of the system. Upper-level analysis indicates weak to moderate vertical wind shear, additionally, sea surface temperature values are high, near 30C and ocean heat content is favorable.

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 MB. Based on the very favorable environment and the rapid consolidation, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
121. Skyepony (Mod)
95S in the middle, 93S in the upper right.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37178
that shot of the waves rising well above the buildings at about 1:20 sends a spine shivering chill
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone happen to catch the Delta IV Heavy Launch out of the Cape? Beautiful site. Looked as bright as Venus and Orange from Tampa moving up fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Link
I just found this you tube video where the waves from Ike hit Cuba. Those waves are higher than the hotels in front they must be five stories!!!

Wow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


"...I can see you... "

I think you mean eye can see you lol pun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
I just found this you tube video where the waves from Ike hit Cuba. Those waves are higher than the hotels in front they must be five stories!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That English low is very impressive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
114. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20082009
4:00 AM Réunion January 18 2009
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 52.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 51.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.6S 50.5E - 40 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.1S 49.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.4S 50.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Classical satellite imagery shows that the system has progressively become better organized, with deep convection building in the south part of the system during the last 6 hours. System is fed by a good tradewinds inflow, but monsoon flow appears weaker and less efficient (possibly disturb by the northern tip of Madagascar). Wind shear has decreased over the last 24 hours and upper level divergence is good, especially in the northern part with some nice cirrus expension (more limited in the southern part). As the system is over warm sea surface temperatuers in the range of 29C. Conditions appear favorable for further development. Most of the NWP guidance are now in agreement about the development of this system and the philosophy of the track: the system should track of the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge deepening towards a weakness in the pressure field located south of Madagascar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cotillion - Y'all do not give these winter gales names?
Luck tomorrow with your Ravens!

Orca - Hoping Glitter makes a quick return to good health.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


"...I can see you... "
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Should be fine. However, the next weather demon will be snow... the gales don't really subside for a little while though mostly kept towards the NW of Scotland. Wales/Manchester should be kept out of it.

Yes.. they are significant wave heights. South West also caught some of it, basically the peripheries of Britain.

Latest GFS 0.1 model basically says we're going to be hit by low pressure by low pressure for the next week or so, very unsettled.

Synoptic charts pretty much say the same story.

Tomorrow, with the exception of the warnings still in place including the Tornado watch (which all expire early tomorrow morning), early heavy snow advisories are in place for Scotland, N Ireland and the N of England.

Monday, we have early heavy snow and severe gale warnings for much of the UK...

"There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting most of Scotland and Wales, Northern Ireland and parts of northern and western England.

Over England and Wales, winds could be more of a significant problem than snow, with gales or severe gales in places. However, there is still the potential for periods of snow to give significant accumulations across areas, mostly in the north and west."

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you for your good wishes, sandiquiz. I'm going to fly in the evening to Manchester and then I have to go by train to Wales - if the weather allows it. Otherwise I have to stay overnight in Manchester, I just checked some hostels, just not to run out of options.

Good night then
tipsku
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taistelutipu:
yikes! What a change to the calm and cold winter weather I've had on my holidays in Germany. Now I'm a bit scared about tomorrow when I'm supposed to fly back to the UK. Hopefully the plane won't get shaken too much.
Thank you very much for the information, Cotillion and sandiquiz.

I have just heard from a friend on the South West coast who said.....
"We've already had some terrific storms. Earlier the wind was howling like crazy out there and I could hear things being bashed about in the garden. Then heavy rain was lashing against the windows in the front."

The north is really being bashed at the moment.

taistelutipu - good luck on your journey, but it is meant to blow through overnight and be a little calmer during the day, blowing up again tomorrow night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yikes! What a change to the calm and cold winter weather I've had on my holidays in Germany. Now I'm a bit scared about tomorrow when I'm supposed to fly back to the UK. Hopefully the plane won't get shaken too much.
Thank you very much for the information, Cotillion and sandiquiz.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
pangean...

Regarding Fourier Analysis...

Such a methodology works great when you are attempting to gather data from a device with a noisy background. In that case, the Fourier analysis could be used to extract the station information from the noise.

Done correctly, the station sending a temperature reading of 17.92c would be read as 17.92c and not 27.92c. A properly designed station would contain an archive that recorded all the information that it uploaded and could be downloaded for verification later.

What is more at issue is the station itself registering incorrect information such as a temperature of 12.56c is read by the device at 14.19c. Without scheduled and consistent calibration, no amount of Fourier analysis will make that type of adjustment.

Notice that I am saying calibration as opposed to zeroing with calibration devices. If a device is calibrated and determined to be 1.72c in error to the positive side, then it is appropriate to adjust the reading to correspond with the known calibrated difference. That sort of adjustment is not an assumption, it is a known fact that is being accounted for.

As I said before, certified calibration on a periodic basis coupled with a strict adherence to placement requirements and all of which is additionally verified and certified are very important in the gathering of ACCURATE HARD DATA.

It is all too important that we accurately interpret our data and not let sloppy data gathering and interpretation lead us down the wrong path. In this case, incorrect analysis means billions of people being impacted and the question in the back of our minds should be...'What if the interpretation is wrong and we hurt the very people we are so gallantly trying to protect?'

Don't you think we should take the time to insure that the information our devices are sending us are accurate and that the devices reflect an honest representation of an unbiased environment?

How hard can it be to make certain that each and every one of our reporting devices are accurate and in a good place? What are we talking about? A few thousand devices...we are talking about billions of lives in the balance.

Covering up sloppy data gathering with software algorithms is simply not right or scientific.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cotillion -

One of the other bloggers told me you were here, discussing the weather we are expecting here in the UK.

The Marine forecast
from WU shows a great animation of the wave heights produced by the storm, (set it in motion)... and it appears to last until Tuesday. Batten the hatches.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmm, looks like we could have 60 cm (2 ft) of snow on the ground about a week from now. Most of the forecasts that predicted that this year have gone bust (we peaked at 43 cm (17 in) of snow).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Orca,
I went to your blog and looked at your pics of Glitter, your beautful but sick Koi.

what is wrong with her that you are having to treat her? Is it serious?

Thanks for sharing and giving us a heades up.

Cot, looks like England is getting a very bad story. Take care!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I put some pictures of me playing Dr John to my semi frozen sick KOI on my blog.. in the comments section if anyone wants to look.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Heavy rain and storms are set to lash western parts of the UK then sweep eastward, prompting a number of severe weather warnings.

In Northern Ireland a motorist was killed when a tree hit her car during high winds and 24,000 homes locally were left without power.

Winds of up to 100mph are forecast there with gales also expected in north-west Scotland and Orkney.

Storms are also expected in western Scotland, Wales and western England.

The motorist killed in Northern Ireland was a woman in her 30s whose car was struck by a tree on Strangford Road in Downpatrick at 1600 GMT.

Link

It's nowhere near yet over, and we have our first fatality... sad. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon all!

Well it is really slow around here today;
I guess everyone is busy doing something else. LOL

I just read the article below in our local SE Florida Sun Sentinel.
I thought is was too funny so posting it here for you all to read.

Now when it is cold enough in South Florida for Ignuanas to start falling from trees it is too cold for us sissies down here! LOL
Take care,
Gams



Fla. cold snap causes iguanas to fall from trees

The Associated Press

8:56 AM EST, January 17, 2009

NAPLES - The chilly weather in southern Florida this week was cold enough to force some iguanas to fall from trees.

Experts say the cold-blooded reptiles go into a deep sleep when the temperature falls into the 40s. Their bodies basically shut off and they lose their grip on the tree.

According to Collier County Domestic Animal Services control supervisor Dana Alger, iguana reports traditionally rise when temperatures drop, as the reptiles seek to warm themselves on asphalt surfaces such as sidewalks, roads and driveways.

Most of the iguanas were once pets that got released when they got too big. The reptiles can grow up to six feet long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
pangean @ 88

First, your spiel about weather stations, all I can say is - blah, blah, blah - heard it all before - not buying it. Bottom line is that your argument boils down to "it's not really getting warmer, it's just a measurement artifact." Sorts of makes you fundamentalist skeptic.


Talk about dismissive. And then name calling. When I see stuff like that, I usually skip over the rest of the comment. Those who simply dismiss others are usually pedalling some kind of faith-based whatever. What's worse- fundamentalist skeptic or fundamentalist believer?. Pangean seems to be the latter. I prefer skeptics over condescending believers. Condescension indicates lack of confidence in your own beliefs and no desire to have a scientific dialogue. calusakat never said it's warmer than measured...it may indeed have been even colder this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
pangean...

Until you or someone else can answer those issues I posed to you earlier, your described interpretation of weather data is flawed.

I did say that the software was an algorithm...didn't I. Simply put, an algorithm is a mathematical formula that is used to 'interpret' data as it is presented to it. That formula is based upon 'assumptions' which decide what to do if certain data masses arise.

Coupled with the fact that we do not have any 'certification' of the accuracy not to mention the verification that the instruments are placed in scientifically neutral location. It is readily apparent that the current thinking and writing is flawed because it is using flawed data on which to base its claims.

Certification of the accuracy means that the weather station has been calibrated to current standards. Verification of placement is necessary to insure the instrumentation is not being affected by local perturbations.

For example...Kilns are of vital importance in many industries. Obviously, it is vitally important that the operators are confident in the accuracy of the temperatures in those kilns.

Most kilns use thermocouples, primarily K-junctions, that can dependably measure temperatures up to 2000f. The dependability and accuracy are for naught if the thermocouple is improperly placed. ie. If it is place too low or too high or too close to a side. Placement is everything and the measuring equipment attached to the thermocouple can only report information that it receives...it has no way of knowing how well the thermocouple has been placed. It only knows the local conditions of the thermocouple.

You demanded that Vortfix provide substantiating documentation and my reply was to ask the same of the blogmaster and his cohorts.

To date, there is no forthcoming documentation that certifies each and every weather station, globally, for accuracy and proper placement. Instead, what we seem to be getting is data manipulation through algorithm. Either it is 88.23 degrees or it is not. Resorting to algorithm interpretation because the scientists are too lazy to do the necessary homework to insure hard data accuracy just seems so unscientific.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great reading for those interested in severe Atlantic gales that move into the British Isles.

Night of the Big Wind - 1839.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That system is wrapped up pretty tight Cotillion.
Take care.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Next time it appears the arctic high will push much farther south giving south and central Florida ideal radiational cooling(despite the same daytime highs hopefully).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind has really picked up here in the last couple of hours. Rain starting to lash down too.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
ZONE PERTURBEE 06-20082009
16:00 PM Réunion January 17 2009
======================================

At 12:00 AM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1005 hPa) located at 15.3S 55.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west-southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.5S 53.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.9S 51.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.0S 49.6E - 40 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 23.7S 49.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Surface observations and classical satellite imagery shows that the system, that is currently located north of Mascaregnas island at about 330 NM north of Réunion, has progressively become better organized today. 24 hour variation of pressure at Tromelin are in range of -2..5/-3 hPa since 9 hours ago. Surface low pressure at the center is estimated from Tromelin from the barometric tide motion and speed are an uncertain. System is fed by a good tradewind inflow, but monsoon flow appears weaker and less efficient )possibly disturb by the northern tip of Madagascar) Wind shear has decreased over the last 24 hours and upper level divergence is good, especially in the northern part with some nice cirrus expension (more limited in the southern part). As the system is over warm sea surface temperatures in the range of 29C, conditions appear favorable for further development. Most of the NWP guidance are not in good agreement about the development of this system. On the 0000z run, ECMWF and ALADIN develop strongly the system, NOGAP and ARPEGE (Global french model) maintains a weak low and GFS and UKMO do not maintain the initial circulation. However given the current trend, the present forecast is based on an ECMWF/ALADIN consensus, but it is important to notice that there is a lower than unsual confidence for the intensity forecast. The philosophy of the track is that the system should track on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge towards a weakness in the pressure field located south of Madagascar.

CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

That's a very interesting article, Cotillion!
Thanks for the link.

Stay warm and safe in that winterstorm you're getting.

Quoting Cotillion:


I'm afraid nothing on here, and a quick search hasn't found too much. Only thing I found with a specific focus on the 'storm' itself is in German...

Link

(Has some nice diagrams and images though.)

I hadn't actually heard of it until you mentioned it.

Link

That's a nice account also.

Highest I've seen is around Force 11 or so (That article does mention a gust of 80 or so, but it's not verified anywhere else), which is 65-72mph. That's fairly strong, but remember those are gusts. The pressure itself was probably in the 980s. That's nothing unusual as a system around the British Isles. The winds itself are nothing too unusual.

As with my previous few posts, 100mph+ gusts are expected in the next 24 hours. Kyrill from a couple of years ago brought in gusts of 115mph, sustained winds were at least that of an equivalent hurricane.

What's extraordinary is the timing. In the article, he mentions the pressure reading dropping from 1025 to 985 or so. Of course, he was sailing into the depression at the time, so this was expected. It did occur out of nowhere, and the weather reports did not expect it to happen. The winds probably came from the differential in pressures as the low as right by the B/A High at the time.

It's rare the British Isles will get a deepening low in the summer, which is what caught them out. Naturally, that it happened during a known shipping race emphasised the story. Deepening lows tend to occur from October to March time, with the peak in mid to late January.

This timing has specific mechanics (Which has been said to me, but I can't remember it offhand) but is partly the reason why former hurricanes don't cause that much damage here, there aren't the mechanics to make it rapidly deepen as an extratropical system.

That's all I know. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 143 - 93

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
75 °F
Scattered Clouds